Good Read by Ken Davidoff on his predictions for 30 of the top free agents

[miggs721]

Has us landing Barmes and Pena, I'm down with that...Fielder to Toronto

 

http://www.newsday.com/sp...predictions-1.3283074#29

[JohnBriggs12]

Has us landing Barmes and Pena, I'm down with that...Fielder to Toronto

 

http://www.newsday.com/sp...predictions-1.3283074#29

 

I'd be down too. Way down. These are just the kind of FA signings that scream .500 team (in a good year). Barmes is fine defensively but he's a .230 hitter away from Coors for his career.

 

Pena's hit .227, .195, and .225 the last 3 years. Oh he'll walk some, mainly because he can't make contact, but he's averaged 150 strikeouts over the past 5 seasons and he can't hit lefties at all (.133 last year). Plus he'll be 34 next year.

 

Spending $15 million on 2 mediocre players who's production could likely be matched by minimum wage combo of Gamel and Maysonet makes zero sense. If you've got that much to spend on mediocrity, you might as well add $2-3 million and go after a difference maker like Reyes.

[miggs721]

good one....way down, Much rather have a Gamel/Derek Lee platoon at first

 

Barmes>Betancourt

[RockCoCougars]

Being from NY, I hope that he's using 'Yankee money' (monopoly money) to come up with these figures. If the Brewers give Pena and Barmes $15 million over the next two years, my head will explode. Don't get me wrong, I like Barmes, but I was thinking 2 years/$6-7 million. I wouldn't give Pena $10 million for 2 years, let alone one.

[endaround]

He has Miami signing Reyes for over $100 million. 'Nuff said.

[MNBrew]

Signing Clint Barmes to be the starting SS is basically the equivalent of playing Carlos Gomez to be your everyday starting CF, though slightly better on offense and slightly worse on defense (as would be about anybody compared to Gomez's defense). Davidoff's line about Barmes is that he peaked in 2011 w/ the Astros. A .244 BA & .312 OBP is peaking? Only Ozzie Smith would be worth $5M/yr. defensively with that kind of offensive "peak."

 

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, NO!

 

Many of Davidoff's contract predictions may prove true, but it sure seems like his lens seems to be what one of the NY teams would pay every single one of those guys. I don't think there's any way the Brewers go after Pena, let alone for $10M/yr.

 

They have too many other needs to blow $15m/yr. on 2 plus-defense players if it also means such lousy hitters.

[endaround]

$5m is a 1 win player. Barmes was a 3 win player last year and can project to be 2-3 wins if he plays SS. That is easily worth $5m. The typical SS can't hit for squat.

[miggs721]

What kind of deal will DLee get, 1 year 4 Mill???

[madtowndrunkard]

If Prince is willing to sign w/ Toronto for $161 million for 7 years then I bet the Brewers keep him in Milwaukee... $150million in Milwaukee is is every bit as good as $161mill in Canada.

 

I think Mark will be willing to push his offer close to $150million. New TV deal coming should make that easier to swallow for Mark. Not to mention the extra profits made this year will make Mark willing to take the gamble. I personally think it's a mistake committing that kind of $ to Prince. We've be better off spending $ on pitching and searching for a solid bat to protect Braun. It might take a couple years to find a good replacement, but at least we'll have the financial flexibility to build a playoff caliber team for the next 5-10 years.

[dadofandrew]

Bringing up BA makes any discussion all but worthless to me. Pena made $10M this year, and was worth it, though he can't hit LH's at all.

 

I get the feeling some here are still living in 2004 as to contracts and values. Most players get more than they should and more years than I am comfortable with. That's why developing your own players is so vital.

[RockCoCougars]

Carlos Pena isn't worth $10 million to me, and I don't think that he was worth that to the Cubs last year either. All the times the Brewers played the Cubs, I never really thought he posed much of a threat- looking at the stats, he had 1 RBI in 51 at bats against the Brewers- pathetic. Only 28 homers in a hitter's park, tons of whiffs and hit .239- plus he's old. Not the kind of guy that I want to give 10 million to in the hopes of replacing Fielder. If you want to give eight figures to an aging power hitter from Chicago, I'd grudgingly prefer it be Ramirez....at least with him, you could project him to add 10-15 homers to the lineup to help make up for the loss of power at third.

[ball four]

If Fielder goes to Toronto.... Does that make Lind available?

[Mike]

No chance. He is not worth $3M. Can't hit period. Could you imagine the protection he would give Braun? None.

[bando1234]

I get why he said both Barmes and Pena. Looking at free agent first baseman the only real names that stand out to me are Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Mike Cuddyer.(Besisde Fielder and Pujols) . Of them Lee and Cuddyer are right handed. I would guess the Brewers are looking for a left handed bat and while Pena is not a great hitter he can walk(106bb's last year) and he does have power. It would seem to be that he would be better in each catagorie than Lee oe Cuddyer. We could look at comeback year from Adam Dunn, and should be able to pick him up somewhat cheap depending how much of his salary we would have to pay but the question really would be is he going to bounce back?To me the best answer would be to move Hart to 1st(if he can handle the move) and to put Gamel in the outfileld and sign someone like Scott Hairston to platoon . but then we could have three platoon situations(CF,3rd,RF)

 

Barmes may hit a little worse than Yuni B but the whole reason we would pick him up is for his D.

[reillymcshane]

I'm good with Barmes, but i'd rather roll the dice on Gamel at 1B.

 

Gamel is a risk, but if he comes through, he could be a 20 HR, .280 hitter. And at 400k - not $10 million.

 

Pena is what he is - an aging, good d, low average, high K, 25-30 HR guy. It's unlikely at his age he's going to get better. Most likely he'll get worse.

 

We need to play for upside at this position - not mediocrity.

 

Yes, Gamel could be bad or mediocre. But he could above average. I'd rather take that risk.

 

The team might really believe Gamel isn't the answer. If so, I guess Pena would be an okay option.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pena actually was above-average for his position in 2011 when you factor in that he's (regarded as) a good defender. His .819 OPS was better than the aggregate NL 1B (.801) & AL 1B (.792). Going by WAR at FanGraphs, he ranks 14th amongst qualified 1B in '11, & was one of 16 (qualified) 1B to post > 2.0 WAR. For comparison's sake, Barmes ranked 13th in WAR for shortstops with at least 400 PAs.

I agree that the Brewers shouldn't look to spend a lot on Pena when they already have Gamel, but if for some reason the Brewers wind up trading Gamel this offseason, Pena is a guy that I certainly wouldn't mind seeing them bring in on a 1-yr. deal.

[prophet]

So Reyes is going to Florida. Does that make Hanley available? Or does one of them move to third or second?

[MNBrew]

So Reyes is going to Florida. Does that make Hanley available? Or does one of them move to third or second?

The last thing I'm eager to do this offseason is trade Marcum, but I'd trade him for Hanley & even throw in Hart (for our financial flexibility) or McGehee (if they have a 3B need given that Casey's nothing short of quite affordable) if necessary if it took that to even out the deal.

[TooLiveBrew]

No offense, but no kidding you'd trade him for Hanley Ramirez! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Put yourself in the Marlins' shoes -- do you trade Ramirez for Marcum, or Marcum+Hart/McGehee? Of course not.

Brewers-wise, that's not too far from a trade proposal of Gaby Sanchez for Ryan Braun.

[danzig6767]

Pena actually was above-average for his position in 2011 when you factor in that he's (regarded as) a good defender. His .819 OPS was better than the aggregate NL 1B (.801) & AL 1B (.792). Going by WAR at FanGraphs, he ranks 14th amongst qualified 1B in '11, & was one of 16 (qualified) 1B to post > 2.0 WAR. For comparison's sake, Barmes ranked 13th in WAR for shortstops with at least 400 PAs.

I agree that the Brewers shouldn't look to spend a lot on Pena when they already have Gamel, but if for some reason the Brewers wind up trading Gamel this offseason, Pena is a guy that I certainly wouldn't mind seeing them bring in on a 1-yr. deal.

I'm all for trying to sign Barmes, but 10 million is to much IMO for Pena since he has to be platooned given he's absolutely atrocious vs lefthanders.

[prophet]

The title of the thread should be changed to "pathetic excuse of reporting". I thought it was terrible, and if this is what the free agent market is going to be this year, we can't afford to have a team anymore. And my earlier post about Reyes, was me pointing out how dumb these predictions are. Not really suggesting anything else. You don't sign an extremely high priced player, at a position where you have a very high priced player currently. Especially when your whole payroll is basically those two guys. Besides, if we did get another good shortstop, we'd end up trading him for a 5th outfielder, a coke machine, and some board games to keep the bullpen entertained.

[B2k1121]

To me, Barmes is settling. We saw so much bad defense this year we are just dying for someone to come in that can be relied on for decent defense. But it seems like you could always get a guy like Barmes without giving much up. He should be a fall back option.

[Hotdog]

Only the Milwaukee Bucks would sign veterans equivalent to Barmes and Pena expecting them to be an upgrade!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[monty57]

If you've got that much to spend on mediocrity, you might as well add $2-3 million and go after a difference maker like Reyes.

 

Well said. I don't think we have $15-18MM/year to play with, but if we do, I'd rather go with Reyes/Gamel than Barmes/Pena. We probably only have around $10MM to spend, and if that goes to Pena, I'll be pretty bummed out, when we'd likely get similar production from Gamel for league minimum.

 

But it seems like you could always get a guy like Barmes without giving much up.

 

That player wasn't available this season, which is why we were treated to the everyday play of Yuni, and why Melvin just re-signed Maysonet to a minor league deal. Bench players like Counsell get $2MM/year, so I don't think $5MM/year for Barmes is much of a stretch, and I'm sure Melvin is at least kicking the tires on the idea of making an offer to Barmes.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we'll sign someone like Barmes to something around a $5MM/year deal, and spend the rest of our free cash on relievers like Saito and Hawkins. That sounds kind of boring, and Melvin will probably do something with more bells and whistles attached, so I fully expect to be pleasantly surprised before next season begins.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not just a difference of $2M or $3M, though. Guys like Barmes or Pena have been mentioned because they could be had on one-year deals, unlike Reyes. You're talking a difference of appx. $75M if you're comparing signing Reyes with signing Barmes & Pena.