Milwaukee Bucks 2011/2012

[LouisEly]

It is rather amazing that virtually all stars in the NBA were extremely high draft picks. You would think a later pick would sneak up on some people like always happens in NFL and MLB; but it just doesn't happen in the NBA. Not sure if there is a good explanation for it either.

 

Except for this guy:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html

 

I know, you can't go directly from high school anymore. That's why I have no issue with the Harris pick last year - he was 19, so he still has upside if they can develop him. It will likely take a few years though.

 

I'll argue that this guy is a star player who was picked at #17 out of college:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/grangda01.html

 

Notice that it took him three years to develop. So if you are going to get a star player outside of the top 10 you either have to take a raw young guy with upside (like Harris) or a college player who comes from a smaller school who has tools but may not have gotten the best coaching (like Sanders). Sanders and Udoh are not going to be 20/10 guys; but they are athletic big men who didn't get great coaching in college that with a few years of professional coaching may develop into a Marcus Camby type. I'll take that from the #15 overall pick, and I'll take that in trade for a broken down Andrew Bogut.

 

This guy was also a young raw big man drafted at #17 who took five years to develop into a star player:

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealje01.html

 

And here's another guy drafted at #15 from a small school who turned into a star when he got professional coaching, but it also took 4/5 years:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nashst01.html

 

Granted, three of my examples are from the same draft, likely the greatest draft in NBA history and they all may have gone higher if they had been in a much less talented draft. But they all took at least three years before they became a star.

[patrickgpe]

i think most though kobe would be a star in the nba (never understand the trade of vlade for kobe from the kings point of view, i know he was a key player in the webber days, but imagine what he could have down in sacremento). the blazers and suns took a risk. i think the bucks need to that, but they need to eventually hit. they took a risk on Jennings and it has worked ok for them. i would hate a pick of zeller because i think the bucks will know exactly what they will get from him. i think if they take leonard, i wouldn't be hugely excited but he has much higher upside and is 2 years younger.

[RockCoCougars]

Kobe and his 'people' basically engineered the whole deal to L.A.. I don't think that he would have ever played for Charlotte, at least not until a bunch of protracted nonsense went on for a few years. As for Nash, that was a big miss. I remember watching bits and pieces of Santa Clara making the tourney run that year, but I didn't think that he'd amount to much in the NBA... certainly not a HOF like he turned out to be.

 

BTW: Leonard might have some upside, but I'm almost positive that he'll be eaten alive in the NBA. The Bucks don't do well with 'project' picks at any rate, so I hope that they stay far, far away. Jennings was an unconventional/young guy in the draft, but he was ready to play in the NBA right away. Leonard looked lost in the Big 10 last season.

[patrickgpe]

i think of all of the players that could be there at 12, perry jones is the only one with the potential to be a star. if the bucks want to go safe and have a player they know will produce they could draft zeller and he will most likely step in and start on day 1.

[LouisEly]

"Kobe and his 'people' basically engineered the whole deal to L.A."

 

There may be truth to that, but if teams thought he would be a star they would have drafted him much higher. I dare say that if Golden State or Cleveland thought Kobe would be a star they would have drafted Kobe and traded him to LA for Divac than draft Jeff Fuller or Vitaly Potapenko. Probably the same for Dallas and Indianapolis instead of drafting Samaki Walker or Erik Dampier. Or they would have asked for more than Divac in return.

[JJHardy7]

I thought Kobe said he'd only play for the Lakers (or that was the impression other teams had)? So...the option was to draft Kobe and trade him to LA...or draft a player to keep.

[LouisEly]

I thought Kobe said he'd only play for the Lakers (or that was the impression other teams had)? So...the option was to draft Kobe and trade him to LA...or draft a player to keep.

 

Nope. The Hornets agreed to trade their pick to the Lakers the day before the draft, but the Lakers didn't tell the Hornets who to pick until the pick was up:

 

http://www2.journalnow.com/sports/2008/jun/18/lakers-trade-for-bryant-has-been-misconstrued-ar-113126/

 

"The trade was more about the Lakers' pursuit of Shaquille O'Neal in free agency and the Hornets' need to acquire a center than it was about Bryant."

[RockCoCougars]

Then it was basically like the Nowitski/Traylor deal. From what I remember, that was the second year that high schoolers entered the draft. KG went the year before and went 4 or 5, I believe. Then Kobe and O'Neal went mid first round in '96. I believe that McGrady went in the 8 range the year after Kobe. I remember there being a bit of hype about Kobe, but that was such a stacked draft that there were a lot of hyped guys. Teams didn't start taking the H.S. players at the top for a few more years.

 

Back then, mock drafts weren't everywhere (usually the only one that I saw was in the paper the morning of the draft), so I'm not sure where Kobe was projected to go, but it wasn't extremely high.

[JJHardy7]

There's a few different stories out there regarding Bryant and the trade. I think only Kobe knows the truth, but I seem to recall on that draft night that it was understood where Kobe wanted to play. Perhaps that was all fluff.

 

Back to the Bucks...any new rumors regarding who they are going to draft? Any trade rumors?

[LouisEly]

I think the talent level in the second half of the first round is just as good as #12, so if they get an opportunity to trade down and pick up a 1st next year I hope they jump on it. Lots of guys I like who could easily be around later in the draft:

 

Terrence Ross

Tony Wroten (my sleeper here - yes he can improve his maturity/decision making, but what college freshman can't?)

John Jenkins

 

If either of these guys are around for their 2nd round pick I'd jump on them:

 

Festus Ezeli

Kim English

 

Another interesting 2nd round pick would be Furkan Aldemir; having a fellow Turk on the team might make Ilyasova more likely to sign an extension with Milwaukee. One thing they really need is a backup SG - having Livingston or moving Jennings over as your backup SG isn't cutting it. That's why I'd like to see one of Ross/Jenkins/English. English is a pretty good defender and his size is why I like him over DJO for their second round pick. Wroten isn't a good enough shooter yet, but I think he has a lot of upside at PG.

[LouisEly]

Looking at who is under contract for next year:

 

PG: Jennings, Udrih (Livingston is a team option, and I hope they decline it)

SG: Ellis

SF: Dunleavy, Harris, Leuer

PF: Gooden, Mbah a Moute, Brockman (Ilyasova is a FA)

C: Sanders, Udoh

 

Observations:

 

1) They are heavy on F - don't need any of those.

 

2) I could see the interest in a true C, as Udoh/Sanders/Gooden aren't really big enough to defend a true C.

 

3) If they let Livingston go, they have about $14M to work with to resign Ilyasova (assuming $2.5M to sign their draft picks)

 

4) Definitely need a backup SG.

 

Depending on how much they can sign Ilyasova for, hopefully that will leave enough money left over to sign Jodie Meeks as a backup SG. Spencer Hawes as a true C would be nice, but I think someone will overpay for him. If they can resign Ilyasova and a backup SG, that will leave them the flexibility to draft the player they feel have the highest upside at #12.

 

Of the players who realistically could be there at #12, Rivers is my top choice. If not, I could buy Leonard at #12 and then Kim English in the 2nd round, or trade down and draft one of Wroten/Jenkins.

[fondybrewfan]

I have seen nothing but Zeller and Leonard in the mock drafts I have seen. I would be OK with Zeller but incredibly disappointed if it is Leonard

[yoshii8]

I've also seen Perry Jones, Terrence Jones, Terrence Ross, John Henson and Jeremy Lamb as possiblities for the 12th pick.

 

I have always loved Tyler Zeller's game, and also really like Jeremy Lamb from UCONN, I think both would be good picks.

[patrickgpe]

i think zeller will be a bust. i could live with leonard but its a boom or bust pick

 

i think as of this moment my top 5 would be

 

1: perry jones

2. terrence ross

3. terrence jones

4, john henson

5. meyers leonard

 

(i'm sure this will change by thursday though....)

 

 

i think the bucks understand that they need to try to find a diamond in the rough. Hammond has drafted like this each season he has drafted, and really only hit on 1 with sanders and harris being too soon to tell. Perry Jones was talked about going #1 overall if he left baylor after his freshman year. I know there are questions on his motivation and bulk but he is a freakish good athlete

[TooLiveBrew]

I've also seen Perry Jones, Terrence Jones, Terrence Ross, John Henson and Jeremy Lamb as possiblities for the 12th pick.

 

I have always loved Tyler Zeller's game, and also really like Jeremy Lamb from UCONN, I think both would be good picks.

I liked what (admittedly pretty little) I've seen from Lamb in college. Is there any reason to expect he'll struggle to translate his game to the NBA?

[davego]

Perry Jones seems interesting.

 

I'm only 1/2 joking when I say I'd just as soon see the Bucks dump extra cash on Ilyasova and shoot, let him be the back-up at the #2. Typically, they are only going to play a rotation of 8 or 9 anyway. Both Jennings and Ellis play big-time minutes. If either go down for a period of time, they are sunk anyway.

 

...too bad Ray wants to win...be nice for him to come home for one last season...

[patrickgpe]

problem is there is so much disinformation this time of year, there are contradictory reports that the bucks want to move up to take henson or drummond, they don't think they will make a draft day trade, and they will trade down to look at barton. thursday is going to be interesting for sure.

[rwa12]

I don't want a diamond in the rough pick with this one, we did that the last two years. In my opinion, the middle of the draft is where you stock up on your proven college guys (Hansbrough type). The franchise changers are gone by then, I think you grab the extra pieces for when you have a chance at one of those guys. I'd be surprised if Zeller is a bust, I think he will be around a 10-10 guy in the league, which is valuable. The Bucks have a habit of going "proven" in the second round, and that's why their picks have been so successful. Grab the guy you know is going to give you solid minutes, you need those too.

[patrickgpe]

I don't want a diamond in the rough pick with this one, we did that the last two years. In my opinion, the middle of the draft is where you stock up on your proven college guys (Hansbrough type). The franchise changers are gone by then, I think you grab the extra pieces for when you have a chance at one of those guys. I'd be surprised if Zeller is a bust, I think he will be around a 10-10 guy in the league, which is valuable. The Bucks have a habit of going "proven" in the second round, and that's why their picks have been so successful. Grab the guy you know is going to give you solid minutes, you need those too.

 

i understand that logic, but disagree. if you have a bunch of tyler hansbrough types you will win in the nba, but will consistently be an 8 seed. no top nba free agent will land in milwaukee anytime soon. the only way to get players with star potential is to take a chance and draft one. i love taking college seniors who have been productive in the 2nd round and they have been mostly good role players (minus Redd).

 

I understand my logic is going to result in more misses than hits but if you can get a few star level players i feel its worth it. the nba is a star league, it doesn't favor players like zeller.

[rwa12]

There is very little star power in this draft. If you want to draft for ceiling, Drummond, Lamb, and P. Jones would be my picks. They are the biggest boom/bust prospects. Every once in awhile you need a high floor guy. This is a high floor draft. Making risk picks is great, but they need to be calculated. This is one of the rare drafts where somewhat "sure thing" contributors are available this deep. Take advantage. I understand that the NBA is a star league, but you've gotta have some minor talent to accompany. I thought Jennings was a good risk when he was taken.

 

I really think the Pacers are the blueprint for those without superstars, and they are following the Pistons blueprint before them.

[patrickgpe]

you need those type of players, but you can get those in round 2. perry is the player that i think the bucks should focus on. i think he has the tools to be a good nba player and his draft status has been hindered by his lack of motivation and bulk, which both can be improved in the pros.

[Baldkin]

I really think the Pacers are the blueprint for those without superstars, and they are following the Pistons blueprint before them.

 

Yes, what we should do, is model ourselves after the one franchise to do it that way and win a title in the last 30 years.

 

Instead of the franchises who won the other 29 titles.

[rwa12]

Nope, we should wait and hope that we get the #1 pick in a draft when there is a superstar. That is much easier to do. The Lakers went on a huge run due to Shaq wanting to be there, and Bryant snatched before High School talent was en vogue. The Heat won by stealing Wade in the deepest draft ever, and then lucking into Shaq and LeBron. The Spurs lucked into Duncan in a year the Admiral was hurt. You tank in years where there is a franchise guy. You try to grab actual talent in other years. This isn't baseball, these guys don't get time to adequately develop. Developing a championship team in the NBA requires obscene luck. Developing a good team can be done with skill. If they are committed to Skiles, then they should get players that fit his system. Every pick can't be a home run, you have to add real rotation players. There aren't homeruns in this draft, smart money drafts a double. Saying that the key to the NBA is to grab a super-duper-star is to say that the way to become rich is to invent facebook. There aren't enough super stars to go around, sometimes you have to build strength.

 

To address Patrick, I like Perry Jones a lot, if they are willing to give him the 3. That is a risk worth taking. If they try to make him a big, it is a waste of a pick.

[Baldkin]

If they're going to try to stockpile average starters, they should trade down and get more picks.

 

Superstars are there to be had, they are in the top 5, as they've been for the last 20 years. They could've probably had one, had they not stupidly traded Bogut. If Ellis can't get them a top 10 pick, then that trade was horrible.

 

Are they committed to Skiles?

 

The guy cleaned out his office. CLEANED OUT HIS OFFICE. Expecting a buyout. When Kohl basically told him he was going to pay him about twelve dollars for his buyout, he said, "What the heck, I can come back then."

 

Sorry, the Bucks incompetence just frustrates me. 10 year old Heat fans have experienced more in their 2 years of fandom than I have in my 25 years as a Bucks fan.

[patrickgpe]

 

To address Patrick, I like Perry Jones a lot, if they are willing to give him the 3. That is a risk worth taking. If they try to make him a big, it is a waste of a pick.

 

that i agree with, as i said earlier, i think you will never get #1 overall with a bunch of players like zeller, you will consistently be picking in the middle of the draft. it seems that kohl has tried so hard to back in the playoffs the last couple of years, the bucks have been delaying the rebuild they desperately need.