John Lackey to have Tommy John

[Bombers]

Here is the link.

 

And a few good threads to reminisce about how bad some wanted him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ....

 

John Lackey

Melvin wants two starters

[RyDogg66]

Ennder #79 [-]

 

Posts: 8394

 

December 14, 2009 5:16 PM

 

Thankfully we didn't get him, that would be a disaster contract for our team.

[derflotr]

Not going to lie, I was a big Lackey fan. Glad I never posted in that thread.

[Hammer]

Heard that he hurt his elbow throwing beer cans into empty fried chicken buckets in the clubhouse on an offday...

 

Bah dum bum crash!

[DrBrewer]

I don't think any small market team should ever go after pitchers for big contracts...the risk outweighs the benefits. I mean look at how well the Suppan contract worked for us. Don't get me wrong I liked Lackey but I am glad the Brewers did not go after him. Pay for position players...farm raise your pitchers.

[danzig6767]

Reading through some of that thread, kramnoj used A-Rod as a contract structure example and posted the contract with the Yankees

 

It's not a rule that it be like that. Arod's deal is structured differently

08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

 

Wow. I knew the Yankees stilled owed A-Rod a ton of cash and years, but actually seeing the figures broken down like that combined with the obvious decline in skills of Rodriguez, that's going to be interesting to see what happens with him/the Yankees if by say year 2014, Alex is near totally washed up? Would the Yanks just cut him or put him on the bench for three years and 60 million? Not only that, Jeter has two years and 30 million left. He could easily fall completely off the cliff as a hitter next year or in 2013, to combine with his Betancourt like range at shortstop.

 

That said, Yankees obviously have massive resources, but it'll be interesting to watch what if/when money owed and the status of both players put the Yanks in a box by a massive decline in play.

[Invader3K]

Wow. I knew the Yankees stilled owed A-Rod a ton of cash and years, but actually seeing the figures broken down like that combined with the obvious decline in skills of Rodriguez, that's going to be interesting to see what happens with him/the Yankees if by say year 2014, Alex is near totally washed up? Would the Yanks just cut him or put him on the bench for three years and 60 million? Not only that, Jeter has two years and 30 million left. He could easily fall completely off the cliff as a hitter next year or in 2013, to combine with his Betancourt like range at shortstop.

 

That said, Yankees obviously have massive resources, but it'll be interesting to watch what if/when money owed and the status of both players put the Yanks in a box by a massive decline in play.

My guess is that one of them moves to outfield in the next couple years (I would guess Jeter, at least first), and A-Rod probably ends up as a DH in a couple years.

[umphrey]

Reading through some of that thread, kramnoj used A-Rod as a contract structure example and posted the contract with the Yankees

 

It's not a rule that it be like that. Arod's deal is structured differently

08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

 

Wow. I knew the Yankees stilled owed A-Rod a ton of cash and years, but actually seeing the figures broken down like that combined with the obvious decline in skills of Rodriguez, that's going to be interesting to see what happens with him/the Yankees if by say year 2014, Alex is near totally washed up? Would the Yanks just cut him or put him on the bench for three years and 60 million? Not only that, Jeter has two years and 30 million left. He could easily fall completely off the cliff as a hitter next year or in 2013, to combine with his Betancourt like range at shortstop.

 

That said, Yankees obviously have massive resources, but it'll be interesting to watch what if/when money owed and the status of both players put the Yanks in a box by a massive decline in play.

When the Yankees signed that contract, they knew ARod wouldn't be worth $20M in 2017, but they decided it was worth it to get his prime years. He'll probably DH and backup infield, the Yankees DH has been a declining star for a long time now.

[kramnoj]

Not only that, Jeter has two years and 30 million left. He could easily fall completely off the cliff as a hitter next year or in 2013, to combine with his Betancourt like range at shortstop.

 

The new batch of ZiPs is starting to come out, and it has Jeter projected with an OPS+ of 82. That's what Carlos Gomez provided for the Brewers this year. That's a pretty harsh age decline from this year, but Jeter did have an OPS+ of 90 in 2010, and there isn't a lot of history of good shortstops at age 38 (that can probably be said for a lot of positions).

 

The point about Arod is certainly true. It certainly is a cautionary tale for any team that is going to pursue Pujols if he wants a 8-10 year deal or Prince if he wants an 8 year deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think any small market team should ever go after pitchers for big contracts...the risk outweighs the benefits. I mean look at how well the Suppan contract worked for us. Don't get me wrong I liked Lackey but I am glad the Brewers did not go after him. Pay for position players...farm raise your pitchers.

I don't necessarily look at it as a hard fast rule but Lackey is a lesson the Brewers need to heed regarding Greinke. Lackey's peak year was 2007 when he posted an ERA of 3.01. The next two years with the Angels he missed 15 starts and his ERA rose to 3.75 and 3.83, good, but not really special. Greinke's peak and subsequent dropoff has been more dramatic. From 2.17 in 09 to 4.17 and 3.83 the next two. Those are obvious red flags.

 

Farm raising pitching is the preferred way. Occasionally you may need to add a vet to the mix via trade or shorter term (3 yrs or less) deal, but the risk of injury is just too great with pitching.

[Ennder]

I still stand by my other post in that linked thread.

 

"I don't think we should overpay to get Lackey though. Pitchers are

healthy until they are not and then they don't usually recover very

well from it.

It is pretty rare to see a pitcher who goes 200+ IP a season who gets

hurt for 2 years and then stays healthy a big chunk of their career.

"

 

Once a pitcher is damaged goods you just can't give them a big contract until they have proven themselves healthy for multiple seasons and even then you have to hedge a little bit. Carpenter is the rare exception and I bet Wainwright is too since everything always ends up bouncing the Cardinals way.

[gregmag]

I never could wrap my head around paying big money to a guy named "Lackey." It seemed like you should just be able to make him do what you wanted.

[GAME05]

i think risk/reward on acquiring a big-time pitcher can be somewhat circumstantial. if you're a team heavy in minor-league pitching depth, there's not so much value to blowing your budget on yet another pitcher. but if you're a team like Milwaukee that is very thin with blue-chip pitching prospects, then i think that adds a bit more value to the money you'd spend on a big-time pitcher and balance out the risk a good bit more.

[Invader3K]

I admit I wanted to see Melvin go after Lackey at the time, but I was glad we didn't give him the contract he got from Boston.