Is 1st round pick compensation a given with K-Rod?

[NYChez]

The Brewers must offer arbitration. Is this a given? Also, K-Rod must think he's going to get a big, multiple-year deal from another team. Is this a given? Lastly, the Brewers can't get CC'd, where a team has already signed a higher rated Type A free agent. Given all of this, what is the probability the Brewers end up with a first round pick for K-Rod?

[Hate those Rodents]

1 in 3. And I mean that quite honestly. I can see basically a fifty percent chance of all of your questions being answered positively or negatively for us ultimately.

[bjkrautk]

I don't think there's much chance that K-Rod accepts arbitration.

 

He wants to get paid like a closer, and the only way to do that is to close games. Even if he could get more money in arbitration this year than he can on the open market (which is by no means a given), he's not looking for a 1-year deal.

[endaround]

If he goes to arbitration, he'll get a 1 year deal likely around $12m and the Brewers could still trade him.

[Hammer]

I could have sworn that he will not be offered arby as part of his dropping the vesting part of his contract...am I remembering this incorrectly? Hence...no picks?

[nate82]

I could have sworn that he will not be offered arby as part of his dropping the vesting part of his contract...am I remembering this incorrectly? Hence...no picks?

There has been nothing said about this at all. Plus KRod get extra money added onto his contract this year in order for that vesting option not to vest. I don't see why the Brewers would have had to put that in there in order for his vesting option not to vest.

[Hammer]

I could have sworn that he will not be offered arby as part of his dropping the vesting part of his contract...am I remembering this incorrectly? Hence...no picks?

There has been nothing said about this at all. Plus KRod get extra money added onto his contract this year in order for that vesting option not to vest. I don't see why the Brewers would have had to put that in there in order for his vesting option not to vest.

It was talked about quite a bit actually on twitter and mlb radio. While I didn't remember the correct decision on this, saying "There has been nothing said about this at all" makes you sound like you know everything that has ever been said about baseball. Knock it off...ok? Nobody likes that type of elitist attitude.

 

Additionally, the Brewers retained the right to offer Rodriguez

arbitration after the season, which would entitle them to compensatory

draft picks if he signs with another club - assuming draft-pick

compensation is part of the impending labor negotiations between the

Players' Association and Major League Baseball.

Jsonline article

[TheCrew07]

We'll be lucky to get any first round picks as compensation.... we need teams in the top half of the standings to our FAs (the rich getting richer).

[nate82]

It was talked about quite a bit actually on twitter and mlb radio. While I didn't remember the correct decision on this, saying "There has been nothing said about this at all" makes you sound like you know everything that has ever been said about baseball. Knock it off...ok? Nobody likes that type of elitist attitude.

 

 

Nice I love it when someone takes something completely out of context and then insinuates something that wasn't anywhere close to anything that they are insinuating. Gotta love the internet.

We'll be lucky to get any first round picks as compensation.... we need teams in the top half of the standings to our FAs (the rich getting richer).

The Rays might be looking for a closer and if the market is somewhat bad for relievers I would bet that KRod takes a 1-year offer to close for the Rays. Though I do agree that the compensation system is rather stupid. All or none of the draft picks should be protected. I would actually rather favor a franchise tag system which could add another year of control for that player but they will be paid as a top 5 player at their position and teams would only get to franchise 2 players a year.

[paul253]

I think teams who are willing to spend big time on closers are more likely to be winning teams. I don't see why a team with a bunch of holes, a team like the Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Royals, etc would spend a ton of money on a closer when they don't tend to have a whole lot of save opportunities. Plus, one of the best ways to increase a no-name players value and then trade him for prospects is to put him as a closer and get him a bunch of saves.

 

I'd venture to say the likelihood of getting fist round compensation is higher for KRod then it would be for Fielder. Whatever happens though it's nice that the Brewers will get multiple compensation picks. There is no reason not to offer KRod arbitration. He made it clear he wants to be a closer. He knows he won't be the closer in Milwaukee and he will leave. But even if he does accept, you pay him a bunch yes but you also keep that amazing 1-2 punch in the bullpen that won us so many games this past season. And his trade value would be high next season if things don't work out standings-wise. Not offering him arby would be a huge blunder, especially for a team with a borderline terrible farm system.

[trwi7]

TheCrew07 wrote:

---

We'll be lucky to get any first round picks as compensation.... we need teams in the top half of the standings to our FAs (the rich getting richer).

I'd take a 2nd and a supplemental pick for him. I'm not picky.

 

And I'd absolutely offer him arbitration. I think the chances he accepts are less than 1%. He wants to close and he knows he's not doing that here.

[DHonks]

KRod must be offered arby since we know he wants a 2-3 year deal to close. What's the worst thing that happens? He accepts and we pay good money to a dominant setup man on a 1-year deal?

[brewmann04]

I totally agree with you Doug it a no brainer and no lose situation by offering Arby to Krod. All the extra picks will be very useful.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Until I hear the Brewers offer K-Rod arbitration I am going to be extremely skeptical. After that until I hear K-Rod declines arbitration I am going to be terrified he accepts it.

 

With K-Rods comments during the season I do think it does help the case for him not accepting arbitration. With that being said look at the Free Agent Closers this year: Heath Bell, Jonathan Pappelbon, Ryan Madson, K-Rod, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero and Brad Lidge. There are a ton of closer going to be on the market and a nice variety of bargain basement types and super elite closers. Honestly I don't know if there are going to be enough teams in the market for Closers to be able to give jobs to all the Free Agents. I also think that teams are looking to save every penny they can these days and there won't be any more K-Rod of CoCo Cordero contracts given out anymore. I think the Valverde 2 year 16 million deal is going to be closer to the normal 2nd tier Closer money. (Yes if Bell does hit the open market I could see him getting 4 years 36 million, but he is the exception not the rule)

 

I honestly think that K-Rod is going to have a decision to make. Does he want to take a 2 year 16 million deal (I'm not certain he'll even get that much) with a club to be a Closer, or does he want to accept arbitration and be locked in to a 1 year deal with the Brewers for what 10-12 million.

 

 

Basically it comes down to this, I think that the Closer market this year is going to be like a game of musical chairs. When the music stops someone is going to be left without a chair. I just don't want the Brewers to end up being saddled with a $12 million unhappy set up man.

 

I want nothing more than to get the picks for the Brewers. I'm just a bit fearful that they could get shafted big time.

[Roderick]

With that being said look at the Free Agent Closers this year: Heath Bell, Jonathan Pappelbon, Ryan Madson, K-Rod, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero and Brad Lidge.

That also means that all those teams will be looking to replace their guy.

 

If I was him and I thought I was healthy and I was just looking for the most money, I would take the Brewers arby offer (buy insurance) and go for a multiyear contract the next year - as I think that is the route to the most money over the years.

 

But, it sounds like KRod wants to pile up his lifetime save stats, which means he

would probably take less money on the long run to be sure to be the

closer every year - so I would offer him arby if I was the Brewers.

[FoxyFoxes]

I wouldn't be opposed to the Brewers giving him a Gagne deal.I know money is the name of the game here and not talent but a lot of people are vastly underrating his value to this bullpen. Plus, it isn't like Axford didn't come out of nowhere. What if he struggles? The What if game can be dangerous, but having a Saito/Krod Axford bullpen was my favorite thing about this team. I think you offer him Arby, offer Prince the big deal ..then blow things up after 2012 when Greinke/Marcum presumably leave. One more year with this group (minus Betancourt/CAsey starting every day) and this team makes another big run.

[TooLiveBrew]

Once K-Rod can choose which team he plays for, you can be guaranteed it'll be somewhere he can close. He made no secret of not liking being out of that role in Milwaukee (but kept things fairly professional). Someone will pay the man.

[reillymcshane]

my question is what happens if he hits the market and finds that the best deal is something like 3 years and $21 million.

 

Would he take that over 1 year and $12 million - which is what he'd likely get if he want to arby?

 

There are a lot of closers on the market this year.

 

Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps. Francisco Cordero, Kyle Farnsworth, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, K-Rod,

 

Soriano got a big deal last year from the Yankees, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Seems like guys have been getting $7-8 million at the most.

[endaround]

my question is what happens if he hits the market and finds that the best deal is something like 3 years and $21 million.

 

Would he take that over 1 year and $12 million - which is what he'd likely get if he want to arby?

 

There are a lot of closers on the market this year.

 

Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps. Francisco Cordero, Kyle Farnsworth, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, K-Rod,

 

Soriano got a big deal last year from the Yankees, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Seems like guys have been getting $7-8 million at the most.

He would have had to refused arby at that point.

[GAME05]

why the $12M arbitration guess? for a guy who made $17M last year, i've been thinking he'd make quite a bit more than $12M in arbitration.

 

Boras has to have a good idea already for both what he can make in arby and what he might make on the open market, regardless if teams aren't legally able to make open offers for him yet.

 

another reason i can't see him accepting arby is that he isn't too young anymore. since he's no longer on the upswing, wasting a year in Milwaukee in 2012 isn't going to get him a bigger payday in 2013.

[endaround]

For free agents what they made in salary last year has a lower bearing on arby awards.

[KCBrewerfan34]

My understanding in arbitration you can only cut the salary like 20%. That means we could try and cut the salary down to 9.3 but the player woulkd argue its not his fault he became a setup guy, so lets say they ask for somewhere between $12-$13 million which represents a modest raise there could be danger of KROD accepting if the offers aren't great. Not sure how much of a risk we would willing to take on something like this.

[endaround]

My understanding in arbitration you can only cut the salary like 20%. If thats the case there is ZERO and mean zero chance of us offering arbitration. KROD would probably accept. You take 14 million for 1 year instead of 3 for 21-24 IMO.

His salary last season was $11.5m

[Raw Biz]

My understanding in arbitration you can only cut the salary like 20%. That means we could try and cut the salary down to 9.3 but the player woulkd argue its not his fault he became a setup guy, so lets say they ask for somewhere between $12-$13 million which represents a modest raise there could be danger of KROD accepting if the offers aren't great. Not sure how much of a risk we would willing to take on something like this.

Again, he would have to decline arbitration before he could start receiving offers.

[markedman5]

Brewers may have had an agreement with him(when they gave him the 500k) that he would decline arby.