Please do not sign Fielder thread

[Baldkin]

194 is NOT a small sample size

 

It is when you consider that only 44 of those at bats have come in the past two seasons. The most AB's he gotten in a season is 128. That's what, a quarter of a season? If Caleb Gindl came up next season and only hit .225 through 40 games would you declare he's had his chance and we need to let him go? When Gamel did get a decent number of AB's, he had an OBP of .338. It's not earth shattering but it's something, especially for a rookie who got irregular playing time. Also, he's poor defensively at third base but I doubt his future in Milwaukee is at third. I can only assume, but I would think he's better defensively at first or right field. You have to see what you've got with Gamel before you just cast him aside. They don't have nearly enough impact bats in the minors to throw a potential one away without at least giving him an every day status in the spring. I think the same thing with Green. Give him a shot and see what happens. You can always use Jerry Hairston as your everyday third basemen if he doesn't cut it.

Everything here. 194 PA of sporadic playing time over 3 years is definitely small sample. And I think Gamel would be an upgrade defensively at 1st.

 

Could you have more reliable figures with a larger sample? Sure. But if someone is at or below replacement for that period its going to stick. You just won't be able to convince me that he is going to be a successful everyday player.

 

We are talking about how to replace Prince and we are talking about 1B that is right at replacement. Thats just not going to get it done.

I would just like you to know that for his first 100 PA's, Prince Fielder OPS'd lower than Gamel did. 194 PA's is a ridiculously small sample size.

[SconnieKid]

Yeah, but what if the money saved on Prince, probably at least 20 mil/year for 6-7 years, and that's with a home town discount allows you to sign Carlos Pena for 1B for 2-3 years and a suitable replacement at either SS or 3B, like Rollins or Reyes for 4-5 years? Also, Greinke and Marcum are both FA after 2012, and if you re up Prince, you may not be able to afford either and the rotation may well look like it did in '09-'10 and you have a steaming pile of awful at 3B and SS?

 

Pena has hit ~.210 over the last two years and made 10M this year. Reyes is a pipe dream. He is going to get a pile of money almost the size of Prince's.

 

I just don't like the FA class. I would be all for replacing 3B, SS, and RF/1B with Prince's money if there were some players that out there worthy of it. I just don't see them. Earn your money Melvin.

[SconnieKid]

Everything here. 194 PA of sporadic playing time over 3 years is definitely small sample. And I think Gamel would be an upgrade defensively at 1st.

 

Could you have more reliable figures with a larger sample? Sure. But if someone is at or below replacement for that period its going to stick. You just won't be able to convince me that he is going to be a successful everyday player.

 

We are talking about how to replace Prince and we are talking about 1B that is right at replacement. Thats just not going to get it done.

I would just like you to know that for his first 100 PA's, Prince Fielder OPS'd lower than Gamel did. 194 PA's is a ridiculously small sample size.

 

Gamel is getting to be the oldest prospect ever. Prince was what 21? and improving. And you are still talking about a sample size half as big.

 

I'm not saying its not possible. But by the time you are 26+ and hitting .684 OPS for your career... Its not likely to be a stellar career. Feel free to add in he can't play 3rd and you are putting another 5'11"/6'0" defensive liability at 1st.

 

And I LOL at people saying we should trade him. He has very limited trade value.

[TooLiveBrew]

Play him. Let him fail. I'd rather see that approach & then trade for a one-year rental guy if Gamel flops & the team's in contention.

[logan82]

SS in general get paid less than a lot of other positions. Elite 1B, SP, RP and OF get paid a lot. Reyes will probably top out around $15-17m per year at the very top end. Fielder will probably start out over $20m per year. It really seems counter intuitive to modern player evaluation but players are paid for their bat regardless of position. That is why Weeks contract was such a good deal. Except for the very top guys top 5 talent at SS and 2B comes at about half the price of top 5 talent at 1B or the outfield.

[endaround]

Tulo is getting $16m in 2014 $20m per for 2015-2019. My guess is Reyes wants 5-6 years at 18-20m per and likely will get $18m per year. With the Mets and likely the Philies involved I just don't see him coming cheap.

[TheCrew]

All season long I wanted to see the Brewers resign him - now I think it would the dumbest move the franchise ever made if they sign him.

 

Take the comp picks, extend Greinke. Maybe go after a guy like Loney to play 1B......... this team is still going to be very good without Prince.

[Raw Biz]

Could you have more reliable figures with a larger sample? Sure. But if someone is at or below replacement for that period its going to stick. You just won't be able to convince me that he is going to be a successful everyday player.

 

We are talking about how to replace Prince and we are talking about 1B that is right at replacement. Thats just not going to get it done.

I would just like you to know that for his first 100 PA's, Prince Fielder OPS'd lower than Gamel did. 194 PA's is a ridiculously small sample size.

 

Gamel is getting to be the oldest prospect ever. Prince was what 21? and improving. And you are still talking about a sample size half as big.

 

I'm not saying its not possible. But by the time you are 26+ and hitting .684 OPS for your career... Its not likely to be a stellar career. Feel free to add in he can't play 3rd and you are putting another 5'11"/6'0" defensive liability at 1st.

 

And I LOL at people saying we should trade him. He has very limited trade value.

Again this means absolutely nothing. He hasn't gotten a chance. Ryan Howard was 26 when he got his first full season. The guy has killed it in the minor leagues and hasn't gotten a full-time starting gig in the majors so we really don't know what he is capable. However, his minor league stats, scouting reports, etc. say that he will probably be a pretty good major leaguer.

Not being able to play 3rd really has nothing to do with being able to play 1st. Gamel's arm was always his problem, not his glove. And Braun/Hart couldn't stick at 3rd and people are saying they want them to move to 1st. So that argument doesn't work either.

 

[bucksbeat]

I love Prince Fielder. I would say no to him and I would say an even louder no to Jose Reyes. We're worried about signing Fielder to a mega long-term deal because he has a large frame but most are willing to sign a shortstop to a mega long-term contract that has missed 191 games over the last 3 years?

[kramnoj]

2) get a super defense SS with the range to get to liners down the 3B line,

 

I'm trying to figure out what you meant to write here, because Kurt Wagner isn't available to sign.

[Hate those Rodents]

2) get a super defense SS with the range to get to liners down the 3B line,

 

I'm trying to figure out what you meant to write here, because Kurt Wagner isn't available to sign.

 

I'll one up you and ask that our super defensive SS can also handle half of the CF duties, enabling us to play a lesser defensive CF with an awesome stick like Kotsay there most of the time.

[tyguy20204]

[quote author=Hate those Rodents wrote:

[/b] I'll one up you and ask that our super defensive SS can also handle half of the CF duties, enabling us to play a lesser defensive CF with an awesome stick like Kotsay there most of the time.

Awesome stick...Kotsay...does not compute...

[JohnBriggs12]

TheCrew]All season long I wanted to see the Brewers resign him - now I think it would the dumbest move the franchise ever made if they sign him.

 

Take the comp picks, extend Greinke. Maybe go after a guy like Loney to play 1B......... this team is still going to be very good without Prince.

You are dreaming. Take away Prince and K-Rod and this is a .500 team. No, don't extend Greinke either.. Grienke's ERA the last 2 years are 4.17 and 3.83 (essentially the NL equivalent of 4.17 in the AL). He's going to want $90 million over 5-6 years. Those numbers represent more risk than paying Fielder. You drafted 2 pitchers in the top half of round 1 last year so you don't have to take risks like that. If you want to wait and see, it's likely you could parlay Greinke into some decent prospects at the trade deadline.

 

There are 1B out there that aren't bad.. Gamel might turn out to be okay, but nobody is going to give you the presence in the lineup that Fielder provided.

[gregmag]

All season long I wanted to see the Brewers resign him - now I think it would the dumbest move the franchise ever made if they sign him.

 

Take the comp picks, extend Greinke. Maybe go after a guy like Loney to play 1B......... this team is still going to be very good without Prince.

You are dreaming. Take away Prince and K-Rod and this is a .500 team. No, don't extend Greinke either.. Grienke's ERA the last 2 years are 4.17 and 3.83 (essentially the NL equivalent of 4.17 in the AL). He's going to want $90 million over 5-6 years. Those numbers represent more risk than paying Fielder. You drafted 2 pitchers in the top half of round 1 last year so you don't have to take risks like that. If you want to wait and see, it's likely you could parlay Greinke into some decent prospects at the trade deadline.

 

There are 1B out there that aren't bad.. Gamel might turn out to be okay, but nobody is going to give you the presence in the lineup that Fielder provided.

I certainly agree that it's a .500 team if you take away Fielder and K-Rod. Especially Fielder. I mean, I know he has limited range, but that's a lot of balls getting through the right side, and the other infielders would get worn out trying to run all those grounders over to first base themselves.

 

But seriously, folks . . . if you replace Fielder and Rodriguez with replacement-level guys, and then do nothing else to upgrade the team, then right, you're close to .500 -- I'm not sure you're all the way there, as a matter of true talent, but you're certainly there or worse in a bad year, especially if the Rodriguez hole causes a bullpen mismanagement cascade.

 

I don't think that's realistic, though. In modern baseball, bullpens need reconstruction almost every year. Getting an average rather than replacement-level 1b, one way or another, should be doable. Most important, we have scads of room for improvement over last year's ss and 3b situation. Remember, the team won 96 games with two lead weights tied around its leg.

 

I absolutely think we should try to extend Greinke. He's young, he's healthy, and he strikes people out with great control. I'm not sure any team ever made a mistake extending a starter who fit all those criteria. His mediocre ERAs, which have a lot to do with bad defenses behind him, are a gift at this point, because they drive down his price.

 

We're actually in a pretty great position to improve, for a 96-win team that's going to lose two of its key players. This offseason is a huge test, and a new kind of test, for Doug Melvin, but he has the scenario and resources to succeed.

 

[SconnieKid]

You are dreaming. Take away Prince and K-Rod and this is a .500 team. No, don't extend Greinke either.. Grienke's ERA the last 2 years are 4.17 and 3.83 (essentially the NL equivalent of 4.17 in the AL). He's going to want $90 million over 5-6 years. Those numbers represent more risk than paying Fielder. You drafted 2 pitchers in the top half of round 1 last year so you don't have to take risks like that. If you want to wait and see, it's likely you could parlay Greinke into some decent prospects at the trade deadline.

 

There are 1B out there that aren't bad.. Gamel might turn out to be okay, but nobody is going to give you the presence in the lineup that Fielder provided.

I certainly agree that it's a .500 team if you take away Fielder and K-Rod. Especially Fielder. I mean, I know he has limited range, but that's a lot of balls getting through the right side, and the other infielders would get worn out trying to run all those grounders over to first base themselves.

 

But seriously, folks . . . if you replace Fielder and Rodriguez with replacement-level guys, and then do nothing else to upgrade the team, then right, you're close to .500 -- I'm not sure you're all the way there, as a matter of true talent, but you're certainly there or worse in a bad year, especially if the Rodriguez hole causes a bullpen mismanagement cascade.

Wat? K-Rod pitched 31 innings for the Brewers. He MIGHT have been good for 1 win. How could you possibly consider him a key player? Prince is going to be a painful loss. But there are a lot of 1B out there that put up reasonable numbers and aren't defensive and baserunning liabilities. Every metric I have seen has said he was good for ~5-6 wins. The funny thing is between K-Rod and Prince their WAR was a combined 6.6. The pythag and second and third all have the Brewers winning ~6 games more than they should have. So they were literally as lucky as Prince was good this year. Which really scares me. Its like having to replace Prince twice.

[jjfanec]

We may be a .500 team if you take away Fielder, but not if you take away Fielder and use some of that money to upgrade SS. SS was bad enough this year a ton of cash is not needed to upgrade. The drop from Prince to say Gamel and the upgrade from Yuni to a middle of the road SS would not drop us from a 90+ win team to a .500 team. Not to mention a full year of Hairston/Green would be a huge upgrade over what Casey gave us. There are cheap ways to improve this team and compensate for the loss of Prince.

 

1. Upgrade SS - shouldnt be super hard and I was not one the Yuni-bashers this year.

2. Sign Hairston. Go with Green and Hairston at 3B. They will easily upgrade Casey's numbers

3. Platoon Gomez and Morgan or find another CF.

 

These can be done via trades - we could trade a starting pitcher for a SS or CF. We have Peralta and Fiers and even Estrada as good depth.

They can be done using Prince's money.

 

Losing Prince does not = this is a .500 team at best. They still will have talent they just need to become more balanced offensively and better defensively. Our pitching will improve by losing one of the worst fielding SS, 1B and a bottom tier 3B. Average fielding at each of those positions would be huge

[pitchleague]

2. Sign Hairston. Go with Green and Hairston at 3B. They will easily upgrade Casey's numbers

We don't know this. Yes, it's possible and probable, but it could just as easily blow up in our faces. I'm pretty sure 99% of us at this time last year said something to the effect of, "Casey will be great at 3B this year, the numbers show it." We all know how that turned out.

[jjfanec]

2. Sign Hairston. Go with Green and Hairston at 3B. They will easily upgrade Casey's numbers

We don't know this. Yes, it's possible and probable, but it could just as easily blow up in our faces. I'm pretty sure 99% of us at this time last year said something to the effect of, "Casey will be great at 3B this year, the numbers show it." We all know how that turned out.

Yes and Mat Gamel could end up with a higher WAR than Prince next year. Nothing is a guarantee but the probability is very high Hairston/Green would be better than Casey's .626 OPS. It wont take much to improve that.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't know. I worry for the future of this team. You don't lose a bat like Fielder and then not miss a beat unless you have deep pockets or are incredibly lucky. How do you replace the power? I'm not saying that you need to get all Prince's homers back, but you have to get a decent chunk of them. Going further, I don't think that you can expect Braun/Weeks/Hart to combine for 80 homers again next year. I also worry about the bullpen. Sans Loe being brutal in the first half, they were lights out. That's not going to happen again. I see a lot of posts suggesting starting 2 or 3 guys who are (basically) rookies. Good luck with that.

 

In a lot of ways, this reminds me of the '92 off-season. Yes we are losing Prince (Molitor), but we can replace his production with A, B and C and fill some other spots of need (Reimer, Brunansky and Doran). We still have most of our core in Braun, Hart and Weeks (Yount, Vaughn, Listach), and the rotation will be back (Eldred, Wegman, Navarro, Bones). There are young guys to fill the holes in Green, Gamel, etc. (Jaha, Hamilton, Nilsson). Best of all Yuni (Stubbs) will be gone!

 

There are obviously differences in this in that Yount was no Braun in '92 and that team also lost Bosio from the rotation. That said, that squad had a lot more legit young talent in the pipeline. I think there are lots of similarities in the very real possibility of a decimated bullpen though. The motto for '93 was' Rounding second and heading for first. They ended up in last. With Houston, Pittsburgh and the Cubs in the division, that's not likely again, but my point is that I don't think it will be as easy to plug holes and 'retool' as a lot of people think.

[The Truth]

Prince is due for a down year next season anyways: every other year in his career has been up/down. It'll be interesting seeing him boo'ed at home in a major market city if he signs for more than $150 million and then struggles, and how he handles that...

[Thundercat32]

My heart says go for it, my brain says don't. Decisions made based on gut feelings or 'heart', are usually wrong decisions.

excepts when it comes to love

[logan82]

2. Sign Hairston. Go with Green and Hairston at 3B. They will easily upgrade Casey's numbers

We don't know this. Yes, it's possible and probable, but it could just as easily blow up in our faces. I'm pretty sure 99% of us at this time last year said something to the effect of, "Casey will be great at 3B this year, the numbers show it." We all know how that turned out.

I am in that 1%. Although I didn't think he would be this bad.

[Ennder]

The Brewers have plenty of power without Fielder, what they have to find a way to replace is the OBP. That is the strength he brings to the club more than anything else and yes it is partially due to the power that he carries the OBP. We were 10th in baseball in OBP even with Fielder. The top 5 teams in OBP all won a lot of games and that is true pretty much every year. If you take Fielder out of the equation this is a very low OBP team.

 

The first step is getting rid of Betancourt, you just can't keep trotting out players who get out over 70% of the time. Minimizing Gomez's playtime will help as well, love his defense but the offense is just an absolute killer once Fielder is gone.

[RightFieldCoder]

McGehee and Counsell only OBP .010 better than Betancourt. We need to upgrade those position's OBP also.

[Hammer]

Agree. Drop YunE6, McGehee, Counsell and add Reyes/Furcal, Gamel, Green and a FA RF and the OBP issue is helped a ton, defense is helped (Hart at 1st s/b pretty good) and the loss of Prince is not as horrid as some have stated it would be.