Please do not sign Fielder thread

[reillymcshane]

I would love to keep Fielder, but not at $20+ a year for 7-8 years. Too much risk for this team. His defense is bad, and will only get worse. His baserunning is awful and will likely get worse as well.

 

I fully expect him to pound 40 HR for the next 4-5 years - he's right at his peak age for performance, and while he doesn't look like an athlete, he seems to work hard to and love to play. If he would do a five year deal I'd be fine with - at most - about $20 million. After that, I think the money can go to other resources.

 

I expect someone to offer Prince 7 years at $23 million. I just wouldn't go there if I was milwaukee.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wouldn't be so opposed to buying a couple years of his decline if we can get the prime of his career...which he may just be entering. A 6 year deal at $125mm is about as far as I'd go. Someone will go way north of that. My guess is something in the 7-8 year range for $160-180. Too many teams just below the big two that think they are one big bat away.

[Kricket755]

The Brewers also need to start acquiring average to above average fielding, which Fielder is not. Elite hitting gets you to the playoffs, but defense wins championships. And for those people who mentioned that Hart and Weeks were exposed in the playoffs, what about Fielder. In 14 post season games he is hitting .192.

 

Really? The Cardinals lead the National league in runs scored this year. The Rangers were 3rd in the American League. Nelson Cruz just hit 6 bombs in the ALCS. And you are sold on the fact that defense wins championships? Defense doesnt hurt, but I would like to hear your argument on these two world series teams being more capable defenders than hitters.

 

If your comment was supposed to be in blue, I apologize.

[yoshii8]

I'd love to have Prince back, hopefully he considers staying in Milwaukee. If not, he'll still always be one of my favorite players.

[mkm13]

It is tough to have so much money tied up in terrible defenders. If Prince loses his hitting ability and turns into only an above average hitter..he has nothing else to fall back on that provides any value at the major league level.

[burnzy24]

 

Really? The Cardinals lead the National league in runs scored this year. The Rangers were 3rd in the American League. Nelson Cruz just hit 6 bombs in the ALCS. And you are sold on the fact that defense wins championships? Defense doesnt hurt, but I would like to hear your argument on these two world series teams being more capable defenders than hitters.

 

If your comment was supposed to be in blue, I apologize.

Their hitting is a huge reason they have advanced to the playoffs, but not the only reason. Look at the Card's infield, Molina and Pujols are Gold Glovers, Furcal is a vacuum at short, Freese played really well, I don't know that much about Punto but he definitely was not a liability out there. Look at the Carpenter game where Kotsay had no business being in CF which allowed them to score the only runs of the game and the Greinke game where he was pitching well but 4 errors cost us how many runs. Yes the pitching fell apart at times (Marcum) but how much was exasperated by the staff constantly having to get 4 outs per inning. You act like offensive power is the only way to win but look at last year's Giants, they were far from an offensive powerhouse but still were able to win out. I am not saying that ONLY defense wins championships, but when you have two teams who match up well against each other pitching and hitting like the Cardinals and Brewers did, our defense finally reared its ugly head and became the difference maker.

[rluzinski]

umphrey]

The Brewers also need to start acquiring average to above average fielding, which Fielder is not. Elite hitting gets you to the playoffs, but defense wins championships. And for those people who mentioned that Hart and Weeks were exposed in the playoffs, what about Fielder. In 14 post season games he is hitting .192.

Come on now you can't simplify any sport like this. If it WAS possible, the answer is obviously not defense looking at the last 4 teams standing this year, Milwaukee STL Texas Detroit.

Right, no need to throw around tired cliches. It's the combination of hitting, pitching and fielding that wins championships.

Melvin put together a decent hitting team this year but at the expense of fielding. The team projected to be a very poor fielding team and they lived up to it.

 

[Ennder]

You are mixing cliches here. Defense wins championships is a football cliche, nobody says that about baseball. The baseball one is pitching wins championships. Neither of them are accurate, good teams with a little luck on their side win championships, regardless of how they are built.

[endaround]

You are mixing cliches here. Defense wins championships is a football cliche, nobody says that about baseball. The baseball one is pitching wins championships. Neither of them are accurate, good teams with a little luck on their side win championships, regardless of how they are built.

Yes. The two best teams this season didn't even make it to the LDS, the Yankees and Philies. The team with bar far the best pitching got bounced in the first round.

[joepepsi]

I wish he would accept arbitration and we could this one more year.

 

Only with Taylor Green at 3rd and a different ss.

[berniebrewer4life]

brettac1 wrote:

---

the Brewers got his best years.

I'm sure the Twins fans thought that about Ortiz.

Who was protecting Fielder all year? Protection is not that important over a 162 game schedule.

 

Signing Ortiz during the steroid era(thus prolonging his peak years) is a little different than signing Prince today. I'm sure that Prince will produce at his current level for a few more years, but no where near as long as Big Papi did. I see prince going more like Mo Vaughn. He'll start to decline around 30, and be mediocre by 33. And no, that's not sour grapes talking, i would rather spend the money on a SS and pitching.

[RockCoCougars]

Coco Crisp? Really, people are still into this guy? I had to check the original date on the posting when I saw this name. Honestly, I think the Brewers have to at least attempt to resign Fielder. The Brewers have had pretty good offenses for most of the past 15 years (outside of the Whiff Carew season). Generally these teams have had good power be it with Burnitz/Jenkins/Sexson to Fielder/Braun/Hart. I think this has lead a good deal of the younger fanbase to believe that power grows on trees. That is not the case. After enduring the middle 80's, I never want to see a team struggle to hit 100 homers a year again. Replacing Prince with Crisp would be tantamount to trading Gorman for Manning. Obviously, I have to be a realist here and grant that Prince is pretty much gone, but if you let Prince and Yuni walk, how are you going to replace the 50 home runs? I don't think that you can expect Braun and Hart to combine for 60 again homersover the next few years either.

[nate82]

You are mixing cliches here. Defense wins championships is a football cliche, nobody says that about baseball. The baseball one is pitching wins championships. Neither of them are accurate, good teams with a little luck on their side win championships, regardless of how they are built.

The Cardinals were not even all that much better defensively than the Brewers the Cardinals defense just never really was exposed like the Brewers was. The only spots that I see the Cardinals better at defensively are at C,1B, and SS. 2B is a wash if Weeks was healthy but he wasn't so the edge went to the Cardinals there but in the OF man is that defense horrible the only good defensive OF just like the Brewers played in CF. The Brewers and the Cardinals are not all that different offensively or defensively and pitching wise they were the same as each pitching staff under performed throughout the whole series. The Cardinals bullpen just pitched better than the Brewers bullpen did.

[RockCoCougars]

I know it sounds like sour grapes, but the Cardinals were incredibly lucky in the series to the extent that even the balls that weren't smoked (though most were) resulted in extremely pretty difficult plays. Rarely did they hit a routine grounder to anyone or even have flyout that wasn't hit hard.

[Hammer]

You are mixing cliches here. Defense wins championships is a football cliche, nobody says that about baseball. The baseball one is pitching wins championships. Neither of them are accurate, good teams with a little luck on their side win championships, regardless of how they are built.

The Cardinals were not even all that much better defensively than the Brewers the Cardinals defense just never really was exposed like the Brewers was. The only spots that I see the Cardinals better at defensively are at C,1B, and SS. 2B is a wash if Weeks was healthy but he wasn't so the edge went to the Cardinals there but in the OF man is that defense horrible the only good defensive OF just like the Brewers played in CF. The Brewers and the Cardinals are not all that different offensively or defensively and pitching wise they were the same as each pitching staff under performed throughout the whole series. The Cardinals bullpen just pitched better than the Brewers bullpen did.

 

 

So they're only stronger at 1/3 of the positions...no big deal...

[nate82]

With one of the 1/3 not being all that important defensively at 1B. The only big deal was at SS and Molina is only better than Lucroy because he can actually throw out runners unlike Lucroy. I will not be surprised if teams run on the Brewers more when Lucroy is catching and I expect stolen bases to increase and Lucroy's throwing out baserunners percentage to decrease a lot which is going to make him go from an above average catcher defensively to a below average defensive catcher. If Lucroy does not work on his throwing he is not going to be a good catcher going forward.

[reillymcshane]

The Brewers also need to start acquiring average to above average fielding, which Fielder is not. Elite hitting gets you to the playoffs, but defense wins championships. And for those people who mentioned that Hart and Weeks were exposed in the playoffs, what about Fielder. In 14 post season games he is hitting .192.

You can win with crappy defense. You just need a way to compensate - meaning a better offense and/or better pitching. That simple. I don't think there's a set formula.

[FVBrewerFan]

In addition to the reasons already given, I don't trust his swing long term. It has served him well throughout his career, but he has the type of swing that can fail him very suddenly as he gets a little older. It's not a smooth, sweet swing ala Ryan Braun, Votto, Pujols, etc. It may not happen this way, but it wouldn't surprise me if suddenly he really struggles. Could be in 2 years, could be in 5. But I wouldn't bet on the numbers he's putting up to be the same over the next 5-10 years.

[reillymcshane]

I'm going to give the 'WAR' argument for not resigning Fielder. Whether you agree with WAR or not, this is just one way to illustrate a player's value - and how we can replace it (in the case of Fielder).

 

Fangraphs gives Fielder a WAR of 5.5 for 2011. The question is how can we replace that if we let him walk? You can't - if you only consider 1B. But remember, you can make other moves that will, as a whole, help overcome Fielder leaving.

 

1. Sign Barmes to replace Yuni. Barmes has a 3.1 WAR for 2011. Yuni had a 0.5. Now, let's just hope Barmes pulls a 2.0 WAR. That would net us a +1.5 WAR at SS.

2. Replace McGehee. He had a 0.3 WAR last year. Let's give Green the job and bet on him being okay. Let's say a 2.0 WAR. That means a +1.7 WAR at 3B.

3. At 1B (or RF if you move Hart to 1B), bank on a player that can get a 2.0 WAR. Can Gamel do that? Either way, that means you're swapping this guy for Prince - a -3.5 WAR.

 

Totals:

 

+1.5 at SS

+1.7 at 3B

-3.5 at 1B

 

That's a net total of -0.3 WAR - not a huge deal. And at about $5 million - not $25 million.

 

Of course, maybe you don't buy Gamel or Green getting 2.0 WAR in 2012. Fine. Then bank on someone else. But you can probably replace 5.5 WAR with far less than $25 million - and at a lot fewer years.

 

Just a thought.

[SconnieKid]

It is a HUGE leap to say Green or Gamel would be a) decent defenders- when they weren't in the minors, which will negatively impact WAR and b) be that good offensively. I mean they haven't shown they can rake in the bigs. At all. Gamel has 194 PAs and is a 0.0 WAR player so far. His carrer WPA is -.55. Which would put him well below your generous projections; below even Yuni.

 

The other problem is that Pythag has us at a 90 win team. So we have to get Prince's 5.5 wins back but we also need to get the 6 wins we "lucked" into. Its more to ask than a lot of people around here seem to think.

[Raw Biz]

It is a HUGE leap to say Green or Gamel would be a) decent defenders- when they weren't in the minors, which will negatively impact WAR and b) be that good offensively. I mean they haven't shown they can rake in the bigs. At all. Gamel has 194 PAs and is a 0.0 WAR player so far. His carrer WPA is -.55. Which would put him well below your generous projections; below even Yuni.

 

The other problem is that Pythag has us at a 90 win team. So we have to get Prince's 5.5 wins back but we also need to get the 6 wins we "lucked" into. Its more to ask than a lot of people around here seem to think.

Those PAs are over a period of 3 years and are basically useless since the sample size is so small. And he actually had a .760 OPS as a 23 year old (not too shabby), which is where the majority of his playing time came. A lot of people believe that Gamel will be just fine once he gets some consistent playing time.

[SconnieKid]

It is a HUGE leap to say Green or Gamel would be a) decent defenders- when they weren't in the minors, which will negatively impact WAR and b) be that good offensively. I mean they haven't shown they can rake in the bigs. At all. Gamel has 194 PAs and is a 0.0 WAR player so far. His carrer WPA is -.55. Which would put him well below your generous projections; below even Yuni.

 

The other problem is that Pythag has us at a 90 win team. So we have to get Prince's 5.5 wins back but we also need to get the 6 wins we "lucked" into. Its more to ask than a lot of people around here seem to think.

Those PAs are over a period of 3 years and are basically useless since the sample size is so small. And he actually had a .760 OPS as a 23 year old (not too shabby), which is where the majority of his playing time came. A lot of people believe that Gamel will be just fine once he gets some consistent playing time.

194 is NOT a small sample size. I am actually a Gamel supporter but I think both he and Green are more lefty platoon players than everyday starters. And both are pretty bad defensively. Green will be fine in time; Gamel has been pretty poor. I just don't think you should be talking about replacing Prince with these guys. Besides, 2.0 WAR is actually pretty good. That would be below Braun, Prince, Hart, and Weeks but above everyone else including Lucroy. Ryan Howard, Martin Prado, Soriano were all ~1.6 or lower.

 

[paul253]

194 is NOT a small sample size

 

It is when you consider that only 44 of those at bats have come in the past two seasons. The most AB's he gotten in a season is 128. That's what, a quarter of a season? If Caleb Gindl came up next season and only hit .225 through 40 games would you declare he's had his chance and we need to let him go? When Gamel did get a decent number of AB's, he had an OBP of .338. It's not earth shattering but it's something, especially for a rookie who got irregular playing time. Also, he's poor defensively at third base but I doubt his future in Milwaukee is at third. I can only assume, but I would think he's better defensively at first or right field. You have to see what you've got with Gamel before you just cast him aside. They don't have nearly enough impact bats in the minors to throw a potential one away without at least giving him an every day status in the spring. I think the same thing with Green. Give him a shot and see what happens. You can always use Jerry Hairston as your everyday third basemen if he doesn't cut it.

[The Truth]

If signing Fielder means we can no longer afford Mark Kotsay I'm all for it (!)

 

I'm not impressed at all with Fielder's defense, baserunning or his postseason career .192 batting average

 

That said, resigning Fielder gives us the best chance to get right back into the NLCS in 2012

[Raw Biz]

194 is NOT a small sample size

 

It is when you consider that only 44 of those at bats have come in the past two seasons. The most AB's he gotten in a season is 128. That's what, a quarter of a season? If Caleb Gindl came up next season and only hit .225 through 40 games would you declare he's had his chance and we need to let him go? When Gamel did get a decent number of AB's, he had an OBP of .338. It's not earth shattering but it's something, especially for a rookie who got irregular playing time. Also, he's poor defensively at third base but I doubt his future in Milwaukee is at third. I can only assume, but I would think he's better defensively at first or right field. You have to see what you've got with Gamel before you just cast him aside. They don't have nearly enough impact bats in the minors to throw a potential one away without at least giving him an every day status in the spring. I think the same thing with Green. Give him a shot and see what happens. You can always use Jerry Hairston as your everyday third basemen if he doesn't cut it.

Everything here. 194 PA of sporadic playing time over 3 years is definitely small sample. And I think Gamel would be an upgrade defensively at 1st.