Please do not sign Fielder thread

[topper09er]

I believe that Prince is likely to put up numbers over the next three years that will justify a team that can pay for the rest of its needs in giving him $20 million a year. The problems are that the Brewers aren't that team; I said $20 million, not $25 million; and Prince is likely to drag his team down over the last three or four years of his deal.

This is the key, with ALL free agents, you overpay them in the end of their contract because that is the price for their prime. I think we need to stop being so delusional to think the Brewers can remain contenders forever, its basically impossible unless you are rich. You need to have a very strong young core all come up together to be able to afford them, like the Rays now, but soon those guys are leaving. Then the good players become free agents and leave (Oakland). We got VERY lucky to have Braun at a great price right now (like the Rays with Longoria) when the pieces are coming together and we will probably be overpaying him by a lot down the road. We are not going to win 90s games every year this decade, get over that thought. Now is our time to strike, we are going to suck the last years of Prince's contract no matter what team he is on. So Id rather it be us and Id rather go for it all now. Also, one minor positive is that a very top heavy payroll will force us to play young cheap guys, which we hate doing now, and may help us discover some good players who otherwise would not get a chance.

[thebruce44]

While not 275 pounds, Frank Thomas is an example of a big heavy power hitter who had very productive seasons well into his 30's

Thomas was also 6'5." Just look at a picture of him, his body type is nothing like Fielder's. I've stood next to Prince while he was in cleats in Beloit and he wasn't even 5'10." My guess is 5'9."

[RockCoCougars]

To me, Mo Vaughn has always been the best recent comparable to Prince. Vaughn didn't start to break down until his early/mid 30's. Going by listed weight, it's going to be tough to find any comparables to Prince. If he truly weighs 275 pounds, he's going to have to work hard just to maintain that weight (he'd be better served to lose some) as he ages or things will take their toll.

[gregmag]

Truth, I got Murray from Baseball Reference's lists of comparable players to Fielder. The only guys in my original post who weren't on those lists are Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder. In fact, BR lists Murray as the best comp for Fielder through age 27 of both men's careers. I'm guessing the method for that comparison aggregates career stats up to that point, and I assume it takes league norms into account. Of course you're right that Murray had some good years, including one great one, in his 30s. As I said in my original post, his decline started at a much higher level. If we had good reason to believe that Fielder would have Murray's career, and not a career that tracked the guys on that list as a whole, then the back end of Prince's contract demand wouldn't look bad. But that's an unbelievably rosy scenario, IMHO.

 

Also, BRef lists Frank Thomas at 240, which is right where the other guys I talked about top out. But you made me think of Frank Howard, who is an example of an excellent hitter over 240 lbs. -- he's listed at 255. Hondo would be an encouraging comp for Fielder, because he was great through age 34 -- he actually had his best years, absolute monster years, in his early 30s (when the league favored pitching, so his stats don't look as spectacular out of context as they were). But Howard was also 6'7, and he played corner outfield in his 20s (albeit not especially well). Fielder is what you'd get if you squashed Hondo and then fed him pizza for a year.

 

Topper09er, you're saying, if I read you right, that the Brewers would help their post-contention rebuilding process by precommitting about a fifth of their payroll to a guy who wasn't contributing much, for three or four years. That seems like a sure way to make your point about contention cycles a self-fulfilling prophecy. I agree with you that small-market teams, especially, have to ride out contention cycles and that teams, at the margin, should organize those budgets with that reality in mind. But I don't think teams should affirmatively plan for abject failure; I think financial inflexibility is death for rebuilding; and I don't think having little money to spend makes teams do a better job of developing home-grown players.

[topper09er]

Topper09er, you're saying, if I read you right, that the Brewers would help their post-contention rebuilding process by precommitting about a fifth of their payroll to a guy who wasn't contributing much, for three or four years. That seems like a sure way to make your point about contention cycles a self-fulfilling prophecy. I agree with you that small-market teams, especially, have to ride out contention cycles and that teams, at the margin, should organize those budgets with that reality in mind. But I don't think teams should affirmatively plan for abject failure; I think financial inflexibility is death for rebuilding; and I don't think having little money to spend makes teams do a better job of developing home-grown players.

Rebuilding has nothing to do with money, you dont rebuild with free agents. You rebuild by getting really lucky in the draft. Our previous rebuilding phase was 20 years becase that was how long it took us to gets guys like Gallardo, Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Hart to all be drafted close enough together that they could be on the same team pre-free agency. Once this happens you stop signing free agents and dump your pricey veterans like Carlos Lee/Lyle Overbay. Then you know you actually have something so you clear enough money to afford them all through arby, try to resign them to a team friendly deal and then say goodbye to some and turn into just an above average team.

 

With Fielder towards the end of his contract those years will likely depend on how 4 minor league pitchers turn out, Thornburg, Peralta, Jungmann and Bradley. If 2 of them can turn into #2/#3 pitchers we can contend regardless of how much we are paying Braun and Fielder. If they suck we may have been able to contend with Greinke instead of Fielder, but keeping Fielder helps us now and still gives us the chance to be good when he is older. Without him I think we take a big hit next year and if we don't extend Greinke we will really be in trouble

[brettac1]

From Haudricourt, confirming what I had said earlier...

 

One thing he told me was that there was no truth to the national report that the Brewers have told Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, that they'd be willing to boost the five-year, $100 million offer made in the spring of 2010 to six years, $120 million if that would help do a deal.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/134919838.html

 

This is all just a Boras thing, and the Brewers aren't in on the bidding, but if Boras can make it sound like they are, he can create even more of a bidding war than he already has next week.

[TheCrew]

Wheh........ I really hope the Brewers don't go past 5, I'm not even sure I'm comfortable with that.

[paul253]

I'd be ok with 6 years for $120 million. He is a first basemen after all. There'd have to be some corresponding moves though to try to free up some salary. I'd dangle Hart to look for some young pitching or possibly a young shortstop. I'd then see if Gamel could play right field. I'd be very ok with that lineup, assuming we find someone to play SS.

[Point Beer Is Best]

From Haudricourt, confirming what I had said earlier...

 

One thing he told me was that there was no truth to the national report that the Brewers have told Prince Fielder's agent, Scott Boras, that they'd be willing to boost the five-year, $100 million offer made in the spring of 2010 to six years, $120 million if that would help do a deal.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/134919838.html

 

This is all just a Boras thing, and the Brewers aren't in on the bidding, but if Boras can make it sound like they are, he can create even more of a bidding war than he already has next week.

That's what I was thinking. He goes on to say they haven't even made an offer to Fielder, because he knows Boras will just shop it around for someone else to beat. They have no interest in officially setting the market or starting the bidding on Fielder. They've been burnt or used by agents in the past because of that. I think they plan on just watching the situation at least through the winter meetings in case the market for Fielder doesn't develop as predicted (very unlikely). It would be a PR nightmare in the very improbable scenario that Fielder has to settle for something like 4/$75 and they had already written him out of their plans. I don't think they'll really get in the bidding unless he's close to signing with the Cubs, which will be another PR nightmare if they appear to be just letting him go without a fight. I definitely don't think they should sign Fielder to a franchise-crippling deal, I'm just saying the fan backlash will be pretty severe if he ends up playing for the Cubs while our biggest signing ends up being bringing Yuni back.

[dlk9s]

While not 275 pounds, Frank Thomas is an example of a big heavy power hitter who had very productive seasons well into his 30's

Thomas was also 6'5." Just look at a picture of him, his body type is nothing like Fielder's. I've stood next to Prince while he was in cleats in Beloit and he wasn't even 5'10." My guess is 5'9."

Yeah, I don't know how anyone can compare Fielder and Thomas from a body type standpoint. Thomas was tall and all muscle.

 

At the same time, I personally feel that concerns over Fielder's body are overblown. I understand the concerns, especially as a guy in his mid-30's who is discovering what it means to not be able to eat junk food all the time, but I just think the worries are a tad exaggerated. The guy has barely missed a game in his entire career and from what I can tell, maintains a healthy diet and works hard at his craft. I suppose I'd be a little concerned with him being one of those guys who gets the big payday and then slacks off, but there isn't really anything to suggest he wouldn't continue to work his butt off (no pun intended).

[gregmag]

At the same time, I personally feel that concerns over Fielder's body are overblown. I understand the concerns, especially as a guy in his mid-30's who is discovering what it means to not be able to eat junk food all the time, but I just think the worries are a tad exaggerated. The guy has barely missed a game in his entire career and from what I can tell, maintains a healthy diet and works hard at his craft. I suppose I'd be a little concerned with him being one of those guys who gets the big payday and then slacks off, but there isn't really anything to suggest he wouldn't continue to work his butt off (no pun intended).

I think you're talking more about mind than body and more about present than future. I don't question Fielder's work ethic or commitment to conditioning. The fact that he has had so much success with, among other things, a body type that appears to be unique among successful baseball players speaks very well of his approach to conditioning. You're right to stress that he hasn't missed any games, and that's a great accomplishment. But it doesn't tell us much about what he'll be able to do in the future.

 

All bodies age, and age hits some players harder than others. Prince's body type has already prevented him from having any defensive value, and he's only going to get slower and less agile. No matter how hard he works, in three years he'll be a freakishly stocky slugger entering his 30s. Nobody before him has made that work. Of course that fact doesn't prove anything; again, Prince has made his body work for him this far, and maybe he'll make it work through 35. I'm just saying that this predictive evidence seems relevant to me, and to the extent it's relevant, the news is almost all bad.

 

 

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

Prince Fielder, one of the top
available free agents in the MLB, has narrowed his choice for his 2012
team down to three teams, the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and
Milwaukee Brewers, according to CBS Cleveland. According to the report, as of now, the Blue Jays are considered the front runner to land the former 50 home run-hitter.

All three teams would be lucky to land the hard-hitting first
baseman. The Rangers fell just short of a World Series title this fall
and the addition of Fielder and his bat would definitely make them a
contender for 2012.

The Blue Jays signed current first baseman Adam Lind to a four-year
deal in 2010, but Fielder's potential move from the National League to
the American League would make him a favourable designated hitter for
the Blue Jays. The team is also looking to build off of their slumping
attendance numbers.

While AL teams get excited over the potential free agent signing, the
Brewers in the NL look to retain the 27-year-old who, along with NL MVP
Ryan Braun, helped bring the team to within two wins of a World Series
trip.

Fielder avoided arbitration by signing a one-year, $15.5 million
contract with the Brewers in 2011. The three-time all-star had a .299
average in 2011 with 38 home runs and 120 RBI.

 

link

[narwhalattack]

I would personally have preferred it if the Nats signed Fielder but I would be fine with Toronto signing him too. At least the difference in draft spots will be minimal and the Brewers won't have to face him often, if at all.

[trwi7]

What exactly would a guy in Cleveland know about the favorites for Prince Fielder?

[clancyphile]

I'd prefer to see the Brewers keep Fielder, all things being equal.

 

But the Brewers don't seem to even be trying, and that is starting to lead to flashes of Molitor leaving after `92. The Crew did not make .500 for over a decade...

 

Please, NOT AGAIN!!!

[narwhalattack]

I'd prefer to see the Brewers keep Fielder, all things being equal.

 

But the Brewers don't seem to even be trying, and that is starting to lead to flashes of Molitor leaving after `92. The Crew did not make .500 for over a decade...

 

Please, NOT AGAIN!!!

Calm down... The Brewers still have Braun, Weeks, and Hart. They still have an above average rotation. This team will not go into the dark ages again.

[clancyphile]

I'd prefer to see the Brewers keep Fielder, all things being equal.

 

But the Brewers don't seem to even be trying, and that is starting to lead to flashes of Molitor leaving after `92. The Crew did not make .500 for over a decade...

 

Please, NOT AGAIN!!!

Calm down... The Brewers still have Braun, Weeks, and Hart. They still have an above average rotation. This team will not go into the dark ages again.

And when Braun starts drawing IBBs all over the place?

 

Sorry, but I'm just nervous... and I HATE the fact that once again, a Brewer star goes elsewhere. Braun's the exception, but will the team make any effort to keep Weeks and Hart from walking? What about Marcum and Greinke?

[TooLiveBrew]

And when Braun starts drawing IBBs all over the place?

 

I assume this is meant without the 'protection' from Fielder... who led the league in intentional walks last season & still was a terror on offense with no one 'protecting' him. Braun will be fine, & the Brewers will be fine.

[Hate those Rodents]

I still think we add Aram and Rollins. The future still is very bright.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'd like to see Fielder go to Toronto. I'm a big fan, so I'd probably back Toronto as my AL team then. Anywhere in the AL is preferable to me. I just don't want to play against him often, and have him burn us.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I still think we add Aram and Rollins. The future still is very bright.

One or the other seems more and more likely, but not both. That'll be out of our price range.

[craigharmann]

With Prince wanting to outdo his dad, I could definitely see Toronto or Detroit as places he'd go. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in Toronto.

[paul253]

I'm hoping Washington. Unless I am remembering wrong, I think that they are the worst team that can sign him where we still get the signing team's first round pick.

[brettac1]

Toronto would be awesome. I'd definitely buy one of those cool new hats if he signed there.

[Oldcity]

And when Braun starts drawing IBBs all over the place?

His OBP goes up, which helps the team.