Please do not sign Fielder thread

[Kelbysdaddy]

i'm not sure about the new FA compensation rules or if they would even effect prince's deal- but the nationals have the 16th pick in next years draft.that would go to the brewers, yes?

[Raw Biz]

i'm not sure about the new FA compensation rules or if they would even effect prince's deal- but the nationals have the 16th pick in next years draft.that would go to the brewers, yes?

Yes.

[RockCoCougars]

From the article..... "Talks with Fielder hit a significant roadblock on Monday"

 

I take it that 'roadblock' may have been some sticker shock on the part of the Nationals.

[Invader3K]

So, does anyone really think Prince could end up signing with the Nationals? They certainly have the money to spend. It's hard to imagine him going to a team that's probably going to be a non-contender for at least a couple more seasons, though.

[Baldkin]

Well, they went 80-81 last year, if they slide Fielder into that lineup, and move Morse to LF and have a full season of Strasburg, they would probably gain 6-8 projected wins off that alone, which would put them in the Wild Card hunt at the very least.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, they went 80-81 last year, if they slide Fielder into that lineup, and move Morse to LF and have a full season of Strasburg, they would probably gain 6-8 projected wins off that alone, which would put them in the Wild Card hunt at the very least.

When you consider that over 300 plate appearnces from first basemen (Marrero and LaRoche) were from guys putting up OPS's of less than .600, it's hard to NOT see Prince being a huge improvement for them. Add onto what you said, the expected improvement from Espinosa in his soph season, and I'll even assume that Werth will improve on his pretty bad 2011, and with adding Fielder, the Nats could be close to an 88 win projection.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Nats would prefer to keep Morse at 1B and find an OF bat to play LF. But there doesn't seem to be much available, so now they are re-thinking the Fielder scenario. I'd certainly rather see Prince go there than Chicago.

[Invader3K]

I guess with the points you guys have made, yeah, Fielder could help put the Nationals over the top. I agree with Briggs that I'd rather see him go there than Chicago.

[brwrsfan]

I understand the Nationals are trying to "win now" but signing Fielder could really hurt them a few years down the road. Assuming Prince gets 7-8 years, along with the already giant 7-8 year deal Werth has. They're fine for now, but what happens in 2-3 years when guys like Strasburg, Morse (who was very productive) and Harper (assuming he's in the bigs this year) come up? You're already going to have 40+ million a year tied to Werth/Prince. Where is all the money going to come from?

[Invader3K]

Mariners interested in Prince Fielder.

[jjgott]

I understand the Nationals are trying to "win now" but signing Fielder could really hurt them a few years down the road. Assuming Prince gets 7-8 years, along with the already giant 7-8 year deal Werth has. They're fine for now, but what happens in 2-3 years when guys like Strasburg, Morse (who was very productive) and Harper (assuming he's in the bigs this year) come up? You're already going to have 40+ million a year tied to Werth/Prince. Where is all the money going to come from?

The surronding areas of DC have a lot of money. The only reason people don't show up now is because the team is garbage. If Fielder and Worth pan out, Strasburg comes back strong, and Harper comes up strong, people will support this team and $$ will start flowing in. Coupled with the fact that the Nats have a terrible TV deal because of their agreement with the Orioles. I wouldn't be shocked at all that given the right moves, DC becomes a consistently high spending market.

 

 

[bucksman4]

Mariners interested in Prince Fielder.

 

 

No surprise here. Fully expected the guy who drafted Prince to go after him in FA. Actually believe this could be Prince's best fit being a team in need of a middle of the order bat and an AL team that could use him as DH in the tail end of the contract.

[TooLiveBrew]

The surronding areas of DC have a lot of money. The only reason people don't show up now is because the team is garbage. If Fielder and Worth pan out, Strasburg comes back strong, and Harper comes up strong, people will support this team and $$ will start flowing in.

 

Given how long the Orioles have been down & out, that market certainly looks ripe for the claiming. I really think he'd be a good fit with the Nats -- a bona fide clubhouse leader who'll be around until roughly 2020.

 

I think Prince's decision will come down to the Nats & the M's, unless the Cubs get involved.

[endaround]

The distance between the Virginia suburbs and Baltimore is huge and there is a lot of money there.. And that ignores that the Virginia Beach area is large without another team close by to compete with (they likely have been Braves fans by default).

[pretendastronaut]

According to Buster Olney, the Brewers told Boras they'd go up to 6/120.

[narwhalattack]

According to Buster Olney, the Brewers told Boras they'd go up to 6/120.

I'm hoping that the Nats can top this offer.

[brettac1]

According to Buster Olney, the Brewers told Boras they'd go up to 6/120.

I'm hoping that the Nats can top this offer.

Also, this is coming from Boras... he just uses guys like Olney. I'm all for it because Olney is an idiot, but it's just funny how this will be reported as gospel until someone asks Melvin and he says "we haven't changed the offer for a year and a half".

[TooLiveBrew]

Well one thing I think that can be read between the lines there is that teams haven't been responsive to the 8 yr./$175-$200M number Boras floated out there not too long ago. To me, him now leaking this 6/$120M figure is saying to teams that the target price has dropped.

 

Fielder signing somewhere for 6-7 years & $125-$150M certainly doesn't seem all that far-fetched. I think whoever gives him that extra season, whether it'd be a 7th or 8th, will probably be where he signs.

[brettac1]

I think it's too early for Boras to be freaking out about it. The way it sounds, he has a few possible suitors already lined up for him to work his magic on in Dallas. My guess is that he is setting 6/$120 as what it takes to get a seat at the table.

[yoshii8]

I'd be pretty excited if we brought back Prince for 6 years 120.

[danzig6767]

I'd be pretty excited if we brought back Prince for 6 years 120.

The Brewers would then have a ton of money and years going forward tied up into hoping that Braun and Prince stay both healthy and productive over the vast majority of their contracts. It also would seem to really decrease the odds of extending Greinke.

 

I understand the appeal of keeping Prince and i won't be upset if it happens, but i just think that 6 years at that dollar amount is to risky, especially that he'd go from a defensive liability at firstbase to a massive liability that needed to be a DH. The only factor that i'm unsure about is exactly how much more money does the new cable deal with FSN bring in each year and thus will it lead to larger payrolls going forward so that Braun/Prince wouldn't be eating up roughly 40 percent of the payroll just by themselves?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be pretty excited if we brought back Prince for 6 years 120.

The Brewers would then have a ton of money and years going forward tied up into hoping that Braun and Prince stay both healthy and productive over the vast majority of their contracts. It also would seem to really decrease the odds of extending Greinke.

 

I understand the appeal of keeping Prince and i won't be upset if it happens, but i just think that 6 years at that dollar amount is to risky, especially that he'd go from a defensive liability at firstbase to a massive liability that needed to be a DH. The only factor that i'm unsure about is exactly how much more money does the new cable deal with FSN bring in each year and thus will it lead to larger payrolls going forward so that Braun/Prince wouldn't be eating up roughly 40 percent of the payroll just by themselves?

Fielder at 6 years $120 million is a lot less risky than 5 years of Greinke for $80 million. The failure rate for pitchers is much higher. Fielder will be 33 at the end of 6 years. The potential for serious dropoff in 6 years is pretty minimal. It's when he gets to 34-35 that you need to worry.

 

I'm on record as saying I'd go to $132 over 6 with an option. I think that's about what he's going to get from somebody. I'd rather he get it from the Brewers than the Cubs. I never believed the $175-200 over 8 that Boras threw out there. He doesn't set the market, the teams do. Greinke is expendable. They just spent high 2 picks on college pitchers with high ceilings who shouldn't take more than 3 seasons to get to the bigs. They have at least 2 other guys (Peralta and Thornburg) who appear will be ready within 1-2 years. The ace of the staff, Gallardo is under contract through 2015. Have Braun and Fielder in the middle of the order and a young pitching staff. That's the formula I'd follow.

[yoshii8]

I'd be pretty excited if we brought back Prince for 6 years 120.

The Brewers would then have a ton of money and years going forward tied up into hoping that Braun and Prince stay both healthy and productive over the vast majority of their contracts. It also would seem to really decrease the odds of extending Greinke.

 

I understand the appeal of keeping Prince and i won't be upset if it happens, but i just think that 6 years at that dollar amount is to risky, especially that he'd go from a defensive liability at firstbase to a massive liability that needed to be a DH. The only factor that i'm unsure about is exactly how much more money does the new cable deal with FSN bring in each year and thus will it lead to larger payrolls going forward so that Braun/Prince wouldn't be eating up roughly 40 percent of the payroll just by themselves?

I believe w/ a core of Braun, Fielder, Gallardo and Greinke all going through their prime the next 5 seasons, we would always have a chance of making the playoffs. The key would be filling out the rest of our roster w/ our minor league system, and by trading vets like Marcum, Wolf, Weeks and Hart for younger cheaper talented players. It would be risky, but I think it would be the best plan.

[gregmag]

I'd be pretty excited if we brought back Prince for 6 years 120.

The Brewers would then have a ton of money and years going forward tied up into hoping that Braun and Prince stay both healthy and productive over the vast majority of their contracts. It also would seem to really decrease the odds of extending Greinke.

 

I understand the appeal of keeping Prince and i won't be upset if it happens, but i just think that 6 years at that dollar amount is to risky, especially that he'd go from a defensive liability at firstbase to a massive liability that needed to be a DH. The only factor that i'm unsure about is exactly how much more money does the new cable deal with FSN bring in each year and thus will it lead to larger payrolls going forward so that Braun/Prince wouldn't be eating up roughly 40 percent of the payroll just by themselves?

Fielder at 6 years $120 million is a lot less risky than 5 years of Greinke for $80 million. The failure rate for pitchers is much higher. Fielder will be 33 at the end of 6 years. The potential for serious dropoff in 6 years is pretty minimal. It's when he gets to 34-35 that you need to worry.

 

I'm on record as saying I'd go to $132 over 6 with an option. I think that's about what he's going to get from somebody. I'd rather he get it from the Brewers than the Cubs. I never believed the $175-200 over 8 that Boras threw out there. He doesn't set the market, the teams do. Greinke is expendable. They just spent high 2 picks on college pitchers with high ceilings who shouldn't take more than 3 seasons to get to the bigs. They have at least 2 other guys (Peralta and Thornburg) who appear will be ready within 1-2 years. The ace of the staff, Gallardo is under contract through 2015. Have Braun and Fielder in the middle of the order and a young pitching staff. That's the formula I'd follow.

I'm pretty confident that the Brewers understand both the value of money and the value of a front-of-the-rotation starter vs. that of a slugging corner guy. Why I'm confident is that we lost for years with Fielder and crap pitching; add a couple of premium pitchers, and suddenly we're in business. That goes for both 2008 and 2011. That sort of pattern tends to make an impression. Obviously we'd be better off with both, but it's pretty clear what's harder to replace.

 

I understand that you have lower regard for Greinke than any other carbon-based life form does, and of course that's your prerogative. But you can't seriously think so little of him that you're willing to assume safely that a couple of prospects will produce a replacement for him. The failure rate of pitchers is a lot higher when they're young and unproven than when they're in their prime and healthy.

 

As for Fielder's likely course of decline, let's start with the fact that he should, ideally, be a DH now; his defense saps a nontrivial portion of his offensive value. Right now, though, his bat can carry his glove. In two years he simply won't be able to play in the NL. In five or six years . . . I try to imagine it, and I can't even begin.

 

But let's say we don't care about playing, in effect, without a first baseman; let's say we only care about his hitting. Mo Vaughn was done as an elite player at 30; he hung around until 34. Boog Powell was done at 33, and I'm not sure his production between 28 and his great age-33 swan song would pay the freight for Fielder's glove. Cecil Fielder was mediocre after he turned 30.

 

Prince's comparables lists (from BRef, through 27 and career) are full of:

 

(1) guys who flamed out early or dropped off significantly in their 30s -- Powell, Travis Hafner, Dick Stuart, Bob Horner, Glenn Davis, Kevin Mitchell (a few great years for the Reds in his 30s, but as a part-timer), Juan Gonzalez (last hurrah at 31), Greg Luzinski (good hitter through 32, but a DH by then), Daryl Strawberry, Kent Hrbek, Jose Canseco (had a few good years in his 30s; wonder how?);

 

(2) present guys who are just reaching their 30s, some of whom are already showing signs of decline -- Adrian Gonzalez, Jusin Morneau, Ryan Howard, Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena; and

 

(3) three Hall-of-Famers -- Eddie Murray, Orlando Cepeda, and Jim Rice, all of whom showed significant decline after age 30, although they retained value because they were falling off from a higher level.

 

Obviously that's a lot of guys with a lot of stories. But if you aggregated their age-30, 31, 32, and 33 seasons (I don't have the capacity to do the math easily), you'd get numbers that wouldn't justify keeping Fielder at first base, let alone paying him $20 million. You can bet that he'll be Eddie Murray if you want to, but one of the things that distinguishes Hall-of-Famers is that they defy the odds. In other words, it isn't a smart bet.

 

That's not the scariest part, though. The scariest part is that every player I've mentioned except Bob Horner is listed at 6'1" or taller, and every one is listed at 240 lbs. or less. Prince is listed at 5'11" and 275 lbs. (Sure, a lot of those weight listings are fiction, but Prince's is no more or less reliable than the others.) Can you think of a player who weighed over 275 lbs. in his prime, let alone one under six feet tall, who had a long career, or any kind of career? Right, that means Prince is historically unique. But do you really want to double down on a freak of history as he ages?

 

I believe that Prince is likely to put up numbers over the next three years that will justify a team that can pay for the rest of its needs in giving him $20 million a year. The problems are that the Brewers aren't that team; I said $20 million, not $25 million; and Prince is likely to drag his team down over the last three or four years of his deal.

 

Why in the world would it make sense for the Brewers to pay him what he's asking?

[The Truth]

gregmag1, Eddie Murray does not completely work in terms of your point you are making, as he had one of his best years at the age of 34 with a .330 BA and a .934 OPS (he also hit .323 with an .891 OPS at age 39). I understand that in general his stats declined after age 32. Murray really isn't a great comparable to Fielder though. The most HR's he ever hit in a season was 33.

 

Fielder has the potential to end up being much better overall than Murray, and Murray was a legit HOF'er

 

While not 275 pounds, Frank Thomas is an example of a big heavy power hitter who had very productive seasons well into his 30's

 

Cecil Fielder is of course the most reliable comparable, obviously in terms of genetics, but I think Prince is a much different player than his Father. I think Prince has a lot more drive to succeed and is much stronger mentally. Prince also is a much better overall hitter, with a far greater BA, OBP and OPS than Cecil

 

I think with modern day training/weight lifting and the lure of modern day $$$, Prince Fielder could still be very productive up until age 35 or so

 

He really should be a DH, though, that much I'd agree with, but I'd deal with him at 1B in Milwaukee for another 6-7 seasons

 

**edited for grammar