What to expect in the offseason

[igor67]

As a thought for an unexpected route doubling up one of our current starting pitchers and one of the position guys for a starting pitcher and a position guy at one of our need areas? Not exactly a challenge trade

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think I would even want Dunn at this point anymore let alone trade Gamel for him. I just looked up his contract and no way do I want him.

 

• 4 years/$56M (2011-14)
  
  • signed by Chicago White Sox as a free agent 12/3/10
  • 11:$12M, 12:$14M, 13:$15M, 14:$15M

yep, those are horrible contract numbers based on his production. But, what if Dunn is the 2012 version of the 2011 version of Lance Berkman

Thinking aloud again... I wonder if the White Sox would do a Dunn/Alexei Ramirez deal for Randy Wolf/ prospects? This would allow them to clear the Dunn contract off their books. For the Brewers, I see Ramirez as a poor man's Jose Reyes (locked in at a pretty affordable deal). Obviously a huge risk, but for roughly $65 million net, you'd have Dunn locked in for 3 years and Ramirez locked in for 4. Obviously, Dunn is a huge risk... but I've compared him to Dave Kingman in the past. Kingman had a horrible year with the Mets, everyone thought he was done, then he went to Oakland and put up some good numbers. Maybe Dunn goes that way as well coming back to the N.L.. I just don't see how a guy could lose it that fast.

[MNBrew]

I wouldn't want Dunn even if it were the White Sox paying him. I think Gamel needs to be playing 1B unless Prince re-signs. There are multiple other positions that should be the priority for offseason acquisitions, not 1B, please!

 

The Twins were notorious several years ago for overvaluing their prospects but also holding onto all of them, never clearing a logjam, until some guys either "rotted on the pine" or proved they didn't have the talent to continue their MiLB success in the bigs. Then it was too late and they never got anything in return when there was value to be had by making moves earlier. Terry Ryan did lots of things right, but there were a few blunders in this regard over the years. . . . My point is that I don't want to see this to happen w/ Gamel -- or at least not on account of trading for Adam Dunn (or Todd Dunn, either -- geez, did that star prospect flame out fast!).

[randybreuerfan]

If Fielder were to return, there would seem to be little reason to change much other than dropping off some dead weight (McGehee, Yuni, Counsell) and replacing old parts (Saito, Kotsay). It's not like the Brewers could buy a ton of stars and get closer to the Phillies' talent level, so slight rearranging would have to do. But even with Fielder, the 2011 Brewers in 2012 would probably not win 96 games again. They would not have the same chemistry, luck, and string of 31 magical games. Everyone would be a year older and slower.

 

If Fielder does not come back, there can be no pretending the Brewers are anywhere close to a 96-win team. Making a few minor changes + getting a budget replacement for Fielder (Gamel or otherwise) would mean a very low chance of having even 55% success.

 

___

 

If things stay about the same, our lineup next year looks something like this:

 

Hart RF

Morgan/Gomez CF

Weeks 2B

Braun LF

Gamel/journeyman RH 1B

Green/McGehee 3B

Lucroy C

SS

P

 

(I put McGehee in instead of Hairston on purpose: If I were Hairston, I would be looking for either more money, more playing time, or more of a certainty of getting to the playoffs than I would have penciled in on the short side of a platoon on a team that looks to be on the wrong side of 88 wins.)

 

With this lineup, our defense may be slightly better in 2012. Our pitching will likely be worse - because our bullpen was stacked and performed well for much of 2011. And, our offense would be several steps in the wrong direction - probably to about average or below.

 

Beyond that, from anticipating Braun/Fielder every 2nd or 3rd inning to watching that lineup? meh. It's an anticlimactilineup. It's filled with players who were complimentary pieces on the 2011 Brewers but don't necessarily compliment the Brewers of the future.

 

My hope: those complimentary players may have more perceived value to other teams than they actually have with the Brewers in 2012 and beyond. (That's what seems to be unusual this offseason - usually Brewers are undervalued by outsiders and have the potential to be very useful going forward.)

 

Players - from most likely to least likely - fitting that bill:

 

Corey Hart: getting older, getting slower, getting worse in the field, but a power hitter who puts up good numbers and is not terribly expensive. He could play 1B for the Brewers, but then, so could Gamel or any number of low-priced veterans.

 

Randy Wolf: He is a solid #2-4 SP whose contract will be up soon. He can pitch like a mid-rotation pitcher pretty consistently, and his numbers looked good in 2011. If the Brewers were "all-in" in 2012, he would be all-in with them. But he might bring back a very good prospect or maybe even two from a team who has more reason to be excited about next year.

 

Shawn Marcum: In 2011, we needed Marcum more than Lawrie. It worked out for us, almost. Now, maybe that's not the case. If he could get a great prospect back to us, it would be very tempting. Of course, he has more value to us if Wolf or another pitcher is traded away.

 

Casey McGehee: He's only this low on the list because his value to other teams is not likely to be very high. But why spend millions of dollars on someone who can't move in the field and will no longer be able to bat behind Fielder? It's hard to imagine the Brewers having a good answer for that, especially with Green available.

 

Nyjer Morgan: Hawkins and Fielder kept him in line in 2011. Who will keep him in line next year? His numbers are shiny. Maybe he can tickle us back a young solid shortstop who is a year or two away from the big show.

 

Zack Greinke: I'd at least listen to offers. If a truly elite C or CF or several top-level pitching prospects are offered, I could be swayed.

 

Rickie Weeks: Personally, he is my favorite player. If his speed doesn't come back, can he become a consistent power hitter with close-to-average defense? Probably. Who besides the Brewers wants to take that chance, and what are they willing to give us?

 

Jonathan Lucroy: He's only 25, and he's clearly improving. He's much easier to cheer for than, say, Yadier Molina. What's that worth around the league? What's that worth to the Brewers? Hard to know if he belongs on this list. But if there's a star catcher available further up, then I wouldn't stop the deal just because Lucroy is here.

 

 

Now is one time that could work to trade production for talent. If a combination of the above players could lead to the Brewers acquiring young, star-potential players at any position, but especially in the middle of the defense or SP, and the new Brewers could competently accompany Gallardo and Braun from 2012-2016, suddenly next year's team will be much more interesting, at least to me.

[Ennder]

Carroll is garbage. If Melvin wastes even a million dollars on him, I will be irate. Sign Hairston as the backup utility infielder, and ease Counsell into retirement.

Not a big fan of Carroll but he would be a big upgrade over Betancourt so for the right price I'm fine with it. Pretty much anyone is an upgrade at SS.

[Polish Falcons]

When is the MLB deadline to decide on Options for guys like Betancourt & Frankie Rodriguez?

[dadofandrew]

If you don't like Carroll, you don't respect OBP, or not getting out. He's not going to be effective playing 155 games, but he can, and has been effective playing 120. He can also play any of the 2B/SS/3B spots. There's a reason Doug wanted him at the deadline, he's versatile, has OBP skills, and is a decent fielder.

 

There were 31 players who had 350 or more PA's at SS last year, Carroll's OBP would rank 5th, and his OPS would be 16th. I'll take that at every spot I'm unsure of, to say the least. Some sort of Carroll/Hairston combo platter at SS would be more than fine with me.

 

Scutaro and Furcal both project better than Rollins, and nearly as good as Reyes. I would not want them on a 3-4 year deal, but on a 1-2 year deal, they're very solid options.

[The Truth]

When is the MLB deadline to decide on Options for guys like Betancourt & Frankie Rodriguez?

I'm not positive. Nov 23 is the last date for former club to offer salary arbitration, and Dec 12 is the last date to tender contracts ...

 

As for Carroll and Scutaro: I'd be thrilled with either of them becoming Brewers, especially Scutaro (or honestly, both. Carroll would be great as the utility guy). But then I'm a big fanatic of OBP

[RockCoCougars]

If you don't like Carroll, you don't respect OBP, or not getting out. He's not going to be effective playing 155 games, but he can, and has been effective playing 120. He can also play any of the 2B/SS/3B spots. There's a reason Doug wanted him at the deadline, he's versatile, has OBP skills, and is a decent fielder.

 

He may be able to get on base due to drawing walks or 'hitting them where they ain't', but I want no part of him- the guy hasn't slugged .350 in five years. Counsell had 'OBP skills' until this year as well. Carroll is old, has no power, is poor defensively at short, and does not come through with guys in scoring position. Hairston does the same things Carroll does, with a little power and he's younger. Sign a legit shortstop (Barmes, Furcal etc.) with Hairston as the back up at all three positions... a no-brainer in my view.

[umphrey]

Looking back on Yuni, a quick glance at stats shows he was a complete failure. He was basically Ryan Theriot's fielding combined with Alcides Escobar's hitting, and the least valuable SS in baseball.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ouch. That hurts.

 

 

Beyond that, from anticipating Braun/Fielder every 2nd or 3rd inning to watching that lineup? meh. It's an anticlimactilineup. It's filled with players who were complimentary pieces on the 2011 Brewers but don't necessarily compliment the Brewers of the future.

 

It's actually not that bad of a lineup with platoons considered. But I agree on missing Fielder; that's just going to be weird. For the lineup, there are maybe three spots that you could look to upgrade via trade or free agency. Two of them are corner spots, where bats are more available. I think the Brewers can make a big impact on offense if the right deal comes along.

 

I think the team has the right approach right now, and that's to first cultivate a full starting pitching rotation. The depth is there, and one or two prospect arms (out of roughly five top prospects) panning out as big-leaguers doesn't seem too unrealistic to expect. If the Brewers can extend Greinke, I think the foundation is set up well for the next four or five seasons. I'd love to see a long and annoying rivalry with the Cardinals.

[GAME05]

I'd love to see a long and annoying rivalry with the Cardinals.

in the same way that the Brewers have been rivals with the Pirates the past few years, yes.

 

 

[strawbossisevil]

Looking back on Yuni, a quick glance at stats shows he was a complete failure. He was basically Ryan Theriot's fielding combined with Alcides Escobar's hitting, and the least valuable SS in baseball.

And, yet, he magically finished the year above replacement level. He was bad...but let's not continue the tired over exaggeration of his badness either.

[craigharmann]

I'd love to see a long and annoying rivalry with the Cardinals.

Well, if Al keeps pushing his contract higher and higher and if the Cardinals sign him, between his contract, Holliday's contract and Carpenter's contract, they aren't going to be able to afford much else. So they may be not that great for a while....at least I hope so. I don't like them.

[strawbossisevil]

No one....meaning not anyone believed him to be average.

You said close to league average. I apologize, my bad.

Show me, please where I ever put Yuni B and the words close to average in the same sentence. You're making stuff up. Your whole argument has been shown to be nothing but a strawman...I, and everyone else, all posted that we expected him to be a below average SS. And now, in addition to your strawman, you are just making stuff up to try to cover for your baseless arguing. Pathetic.

[Ennder]

strawbossisevil]

Looking back on Yuni, a quick glance at stats shows he was a complete failure. He was basically Ryan Theriot's fielding combined with Alcides Escobar's hitting, and the least valuable SS in baseball.

And, yet, he magically finished the year above replacement level. He was bad...but let's not continue the tired over exaggeration of his badness either.

Replacement level players are part time players and backups. Yuni had a good year for him and was still the worst full time SS in baseball, this is what people have always been saying and at no point has it been exaggeration. No other team gave a full season of playtime to a SS as bad as Yuni, the closest was the Indians giving the corpse of Orlando Cabrera full time AB for so long. Yuni was the worst regular SS in baseball this year and has been by far the worst full time SS over the past 4 seasons, at some point very very soon he is going to become a utility man and not a starter.

[strawbossisevil]

Looking back on Yuni, a quick glance at stats shows he was a complete failure. He was basically Ryan Theriot's fielding combined with Alcides Escobar's hitting, and the least valuable SS in baseball.

And, yet, he magically finished the year above replacement level. He was bad...but let's not continue the tired over exaggeration of his badness either.

Replacement level players are part time players and backups. Yuni had a good year for him and was still the worst full time SS in baseball, this is what people have always been saying and at no point has it been exaggeration. No other team gave a full season of playtime to a SS as bad as Yuni, the closest was the Indians giving the corpse of Orlando Cabrera full time AB for so long. Yuni was the worst regular SS in baseball this year and has been by far the worst full time SS over the past 4 seasons, at some point very very soon he is going to become a utility man and not a starter.

 

 

Right, I agree...with the qualification that we are talking about FULL TIME SS...yes, he was among the worst. That wasn't what he wrote though. He wrote "least valuable SS in all of baseball". That isn't the case. That's overstatement because there are certainly many part time SS who would be at or below replacement value. Also, I do already understand what replacement level is...and didn't need the lecture.

[logan82]

Right, I agree...with the qualification that we are talking about FULL TIME SS...yes, he was among the worst. That wasn't what he wrote though. He wrote "least valuable SS in all of baseball". That isn't the case. That's overstatement because there are certainly many part time SS who would be at or below replacement value. Also, I do already understand what replacement level is...and didn't need the lecture.

That is really getting into semantics than actually arguing anything. Why would somebody include backups and bench players when they talk about any specific position? Are you trying to argue Yuni was the best backup SS in baseball? I don't think you are. Yuni was a starting SS.

[strawbossisevil]

logan3825]

strawbossisevil wrote:

Right, I agree...with the qualification that we are talking about FULL TIME SS...yes, he was among the worst. That wasn't what he wrote though. He wrote "least valuable SS in all of baseball". That isn't the case. That's overstatement because there are certainly many part time SS who would be at or below replacement value. Also, I do already understand what replacement level is...and didn't need the lecture.

That is really getting into semantics than actually arguing anything. Why would somebody include backups and bench players when they talk about any specific position? Are you trying to argue Yuni was the best backup SS in baseball? I don't think you are. Yuni was a starting SS.

 

 

It isn't semantics. Is Craig Counsell a SS. Yes. As are a bunch of the part time scrubs who were incapable of being a full time SS because they simply weren't good enough. I agreed that he was among the worst starting SS. If the point umpherey was trying to make is that he is the worst amongst full season starting SS, I'll agree with him. You, on the other hand still need to get me that quote where I said Betancourt was close to average...or are you going to admit that you pulled that put of your you know where. You ignored my response, so I'll just assume the later.

[The Truth]

Yuni B is the worst starting SS in MLB. And has been several years in row. Therefore he should be a backup or aka a "scrub". All semantics aside, he belongs on the bench, someone else's bench

[logan82]

strawbossisevil wrote:

Right, I agree...with the qualification that we are talking about FULL TIME SS...yes, he was among the worst. That wasn't what he wrote though. He wrote "least valuable SS in all of baseball". That isn't the case. That's overstatement because there are certainly many part time SS who would be at or below replacement value. Also, I do already understand what replacement level is...and didn't need the lecture.

That is really getting into semantics than actually arguing anything. Why would somebody include backups and bench players when they talk about any specific position? Are you trying to argue Yuni was the best backup SS in baseball? I don't think you are. Yuni was a starting SS.

 

 

It isn't semantics. Is Craig Counsell a SS. Yes. As are a bunch of the part time scrubs who were incapable of being a full time SS because they simply weren't good enough. I agreed that he was among the worst starting SS. If the point umpherey was trying to make is that he is the worst amongst full season starting SS, I'll agree with him. You, on the other hand still need to get me that quote where I said Betancourt was close to average...or are you going to admit that you pulled that put of your you know where. You ignored my response, so I'll just assume the later.

Craig Counsell is a utility player.

 

I have been ignoring your responses because this is exactly the type of argument that drives people from this board. It is ugly because you agree overall that Yuni is a bad SS but you still feel the need to defend him and nitpick negative posts about him. I refuse to go any further into these types of discussions with you.

[strawbossisevil]

That is really getting into semantics than actually arguing anything. Why would somebody include backups and bench players when they talk about any specific position? Are you trying to argue Yuni was the best backup SS in baseball? I don't think you are. Yuni was a starting SS.

 

 

It isn't semantics. Is Craig Counsell a SS. Yes. As are a bunch of the part time scrubs who were incapable of being a full time SS because they simply weren't good enough. I agreed that he was among the worst starting SS. If the point umpherey was trying to make is that he is the worst amongst full season starting SS, I'll agree with him. You, on the other hand still need to get me that quote where I said Betancourt was close to average...or are you going to admit that you pulled that put of your you know where. You ignored my response, so I'll just assume the later.

Craig Counsell is a utility player.

 

I have been ignoring your responses because this is exactly the type of argument that drives people from this board. It is ugly because you agree overall that Yuni is a bad SS but you still feel the need to defend him and nitpick negative posts about him. I refuse to go any further into these types of discussions with you.

 

 

/blue/ Wait a second...I agree Yuni is a bad SS? But you just said that I said that I've been saying that he has been close to average. Which is it now? /blue/. I think my point has been made. I'm willing to make this my last post on the subject, at least for a while.

[kramnoj]

Yuni B is the worst starting SS in MLB. And has been several years in row. Therefore he should be a backup or aka a "scrub".

 

Someone is going to be the worst starting SS. That doesn't mean they should be a backup. It means they are better than the backup.

 

I have been ignoring your responses because this is exactly the type of argument that drives people from this board.

 

That's interesting. How do you know this, and what kind of people are being driven by the board? Personally, I think that you saying something incorrect about somebody else, not backing it up or apologizing for being incorrect, and not being held accountable could drive people away.

[nate82]

Would anyone do a Hart for Youkilis trade straight up? Depending on what the Red Sox are going to do at 3B they could go with Middlebrooks at 3B next year. There is going to be an opening at DH if the Red Sox don't resign Ortiz to a contract. Moving Youkilis over to the DH is probably the best option for the Red Sox but the Red Sox still need a corner OF. Youkilis can fill a hole for the Brewers that I am not comfortable giving to Gamel. I have just lost all faith in Gamel and I am not sure he is ever going to be the player that some think he is. I believe Gamel is going to be nothing special and will be a major disappointment.

[Oldcity]

Why on Earth would Boston trade Youkilis for Hart?