What to expect in the offseason

[Roderick]

Peralta and Fiers can both possibly be factors next season. Melvin has some interesting options to be considering.

I'm somewhat fearful that as long as Melvin and company are in "win now" mode, they won't allow any rookies to play a meaningful role on the team.

Peralta won't be in the rotation unless there are multiple injuries or trades in the off season. Fiers though will probably get a shot at the #5 against Narveson. Narveson may actually be the one who gets traded this off season.

I agree that they should try to get a rookie in the rotation this year, so we aren't putting two rookie starters in 2013. But this is the exact opposite of what this club needs to do. Narveson is only $500K for 2012 and arby for 3 more years after that. The Brewers are not the Yankees and this is exactly the type of player they need to have to offset the larger contracts. If we trade away someone that is cheap and under control, like Narveson, then we better get a similarly priced player back in return (shortstop?).

 

I would explore what Marcum or Wolf would bring in a trade, but would not trade away for less than fair value. Which might mean that Peralta/Fiers are in AAA until an injury.

[fondybrewfan]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

[Baldkin]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

You can't expect to go through only 6 starting pitchers again next year, that simply doesn't happen. Having AAA depth is a GOOD thing, it will allow Fiers or Peralta to get their feet wet when someone does get hurt.

[fondybrewfan]

I definitely agree with you there. However If Estrada and one of Fiers/Peralta are available for 6th starter duty I think we would be OK. I would probably like a little more quality AAA depth though unless Rivas or FDLC count. If you have more than 2 regular starters going out for an extended period of time you are probably screwed anyways.

[monty57]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

You can't expect to go through only 6 starting pitchers again next year, that simply doesn't happen. Having AAA depth is a GOOD thing, it will allow Fiers or Peralta to get their feet wet when someone does get hurt.

Agreed. They're great insurance, and it would probably benefit them to ease them in through injury replacement starts this year before giving them a spot. Many good pitchers have problems when they first come into the league. It would hurt the team much less if Fiers/Peralta were needed for 3-4 starts and faltered, as opposed to trading away Marcum/Narveson, giving Fiers/Peralta a guaranteed rotation spot, and then having them falter. Getting a few starts and then being able to go back to AAA to work on some things to be better prepared when their permanent spot opens seems the best option.

 

If someone offers a ridiculous offer for one of our SP, then we certainly have to think about it, but I wouldn't be the one knocking on doors to trade one of the guys away. Injuries will mean that there will probably be plenty of MLB starts available for one or more of the guys who start the year in AAA.

[Ennder]

TracyThom wrote:

---

Seriously, there is an ignore button? I've been a member here for 5+ years and I had no idea.

http://oi56.tinypic.com/wu579l.jpg

 

 

I'm sure this was meant to show everyone how cool Eric Davis is and not to suggest they all put me on ignore!

[The Truth]

I personally would never put Ennder on Ignore

 

I think Gamel could be just as valuable offensively to the Brewers next year as David Freese is to the Cardinals this year (with hopefully better durability!). They have very similar minor league numbers

 

Now, Freese wouldn't replace Prince Fielder either, but that kind of production is valuable to a team. Some people don't think Gamel will hit enough HR's to be a 1B (Lyle Overbay syndrome?) and that you need power numbers from a 1B. I agree with that to a degree, but I do think the Brewers need to give alot of playing time to Green & Gamel next season and see what they can do. A small market team needs production out of young players that are developed in the system

 

I wouldn't trade away any pitching in the offseason. You can never have enough pitching. You trade Marcum & Greinke at the deadline if you are out of it and they can't be extended (I wouldn't extend Marcum, but I would extend Greinke) but not in the offseason. Plus I don't think Marcum's trade value is super high right now. Maybe he just slumped at the end but with his injury history I'm sure MLB GM's are seeing "red flags" with Marcum

[trwi7]

Ennder wrote:

I'm sure this was meant to show everyone how cool Eric Davis is and not to suggest they all put me on ignore!

You were just the poster who had the last post in the thread. I would have used me, but unfortunately I can't ignore myself. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[reillymcshane]

Nice article about Taylor Green's prospects:

 

http://www.rotohardball.c...aukees-solution-at-third

 

The more I think about it, the more I say cut the cord with Casey.

[nate82]

Nice article about Taylor Green's prospects:

 

http://www.rotohardball.c...aukees-solution-at-third

 

The more I think about it, the more I say cut the cord with Casey.

 

 

Melvin is not going to just dump McGehee without getting something for him. Casey will only be gone by a trade and I doubt he gets traded.

[strawbossisevil]

I hope they don't resign Yuni mostly so I don't have to read Logan's posts trashing him nearly every single day. It made me stay away from the Major League forums for awhile this season.

Sorry you feel that way. Most of my posts have just stated that he isn't average like some people like to pretend he is. In fact he is well below average. I didn't trash him every single day but you are entitled to your hyperbole.

 

 

Hairston was an option at SS after he was picked up. I put that on the manager though. I believe a left side of Hairston Green would have been better than Hairston and Yuni.

No one....meaning not anyone believed him to be average. No one has ever disagreed that he is below average. If the reason you have been repeating the same posts over and over all season is to disagree with those who believe Yuni is an average player...well...your posts have been directed at an audience of 0 people. You've been fighting a strawman this whole time. Unless, you too were using hyperbole there.

If it wasn't everyday, it was most days, if you count the game threads, and that isn't hyperbole.

 

[logan82]

No one....meaning not anyone believed him to be average.

You said close to league average. I apologize, my bad.

[monty57]

nate82]

Nice article about Taylor Green's prospects: http://www.rotohardball.c...aukees-solution-at-third The more I think about it, the more I say cut the cord with Casey.

 

Melvin is not going to just dump McGehee without getting something for him. Casey will only be gone by a trade and I doubt he gets traded.

I like the last line in the rotohardball article:

Obviously we'll be keeping an eye on what Milwaukee does to remedy their infield during the Hot Stove League, but expect Doug Melvin and the Brew Crew executives to fix their glaring hole at shortstop through free agency while turning in-house at third base next year by penciling Taylor Green's name into the lineup card in 2012.

As far as McGehee goes, a lot will come down to his expected price tag. If he's around a $1MM player, then he would make a good RH bat off the bench / backup 1B/3B. If his price tag is going to be $3MM, we could probably find a vet FA who could do the job better for less money (someone like Hairston). I agree with Nate that Melvin would trade Casey rather than letting him go. I'd expect someone will give us some A/AA prospects or maybe an experienced middle reliever in return. Someone will be enticed by Casey's 2009/2010 numbers and hope for a big rebound year.

[JohnBriggs12]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

Ideally, they'd have 2 of the 5 rotation spots filled by cheap (not necessarily worse) guys. Wolf and Marcum combined figure to make over $16 million (up from around $13 million this year) next season. That's a huge investment for a 3rd and 4th starter for a small market team. A lot of people argued much of the year that Marcum was a number 2. I think his playoff performance was a reality check. At best he's a 3 (all 3's can pitch like 2's at times). I'm also worried that Greinke is more a 3 than a 2 also, and they are paying him nearly ace money.

[monty57]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

Ideally, they'd have 2 of the 5 rotation spots filled by cheap (not necessarily worse) guys. Wolf and Marcum combined figure to make over $16 million (up from around $13 million this year) next season. That's a huge investment for a 3rd and 4th starter for a small market team. A lot of people argued much of the year that Marcum was a number 2. I think his playoff performance was a reality check. At best he's a 3 (all 3's can pitch like 2's at times). I'm also worried that Greinke is more a 3 than a 2 also, and they are paying him nearly ace money.

Replacing Marcum & Wolf with Fiers and Peralta would save money. It would also significantly reduce our chances of making the playoffs. Even if Fiers and Peralta could match the numbers, which is highly unlikely, because Marcum and Wolf were good, and Fiers and Peralta are not "can't miss" prospects, we would have no one to replace a starter when an injury occurs. If someone blows us over with an offer for one of our starters, there is a possibility we'd trade one and let either Fiers or Peralta start the year in the rotation. I don't really see us doing that, as I'd assume Melvin/Attanasio are going to make a playoff push again in 2012. I can't imagine we'd trade two of our starters and put both Fiers and Peralta in the MLB rotation. This is a team which wouldn't play hot-hitting Taylor Green because he was a rookie. Trading two good MLB starters so that we can put two rookies into the starting rotation at a time when we will probably start rookies at 1B and 3B would cause Roenicke's head to explode.

 

On Marcum, he was Toronto's opening day starter in 2010, and pitched well for them in a very tough division. He was then a very good pitcher for us up until the last couple weeks of the season and the playoffs. I am not ready to write him off due to a few bad starts. The playoffs were 11 games. Anyone can have a good or bad stretch during an 11 game period. I can remember people saying Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez were "choke artists" because of their playoff play. In my opinion, I wouldn't make a long-term judgement on any player based on what they do in the playoffs.

[The Truth]

On Marcum, he was Toronto's opening day starter in 2010, and pitched well for them in a very tough division. He was then a very good pitcher for us up until the last couple weeks of the season and the playoffs. I am not ready to write him off due to a few bad starts. The playoffs were 11 games. Anyone can have a good or bad stretch during an 11 game period. I can remember people saying Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez were "choke artists" because of their playoff play. In my opinion, I wouldn't make a long-term judgement on any player based on what they do in the playoffs.

This is true. I don't think Prince Fielder's career .192 batting average in the postseason is going to hurt him in free agency.

 

Hopefully Marcum just went through a slump or ran out of gas. With his injury history, it makes for a little extra concern that something happened that could effect him into next year. If he did just run out of gas, perhaps they need to pace him a little in 2012 to save him for a postseason run...

 

As much as I'd like to have Brett Lawrie playing 3B for us for the next 5-6 years, I'm one of the people who thinks we wouldn't have made the playoffs in '11 without Marcum. You gotta figure he's a big part of our plans for '12

[Roderick]

But if we have two similarily priced and even cheaper players that could replace Narveson in Fiers and Peralta (That could potentially duplicate his performance) I don't see the big problem with cost controls here. If anything since Narveson is cheap and controllable for 4 more years we should be able to get an OK return on him.

 

Basically if Melvin is confident that either Fiers or Peralta can be effective in 2012 I have no problems trading Narveson. You still could have plenty of cheap options going forward in 2013 including Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, the 2011 1st rounders, among others. I don't think Melvin should be to worried about trading away one cost controlled pitcher.

Ideally, they'd have 2 of the 5 rotation spots filled by cheap (not necessarily worse) guys. Wolf and Marcum combined figure to make over $16 million (up from around $13 million this year) next season. That's a huge investment for a 3rd and 4th starter for a small market team. A lot of people argued much of the year that Marcum was a number 2. I think his playoff performance was a reality check. At best he's a 3 (all 3's can pitch like 2's at times). I'm also worried that Greinke is more a 3 than a 2 also, and they are paying him nearly ace money.

Replacing Marcum & Wolf with Fiers and Peralta would save money. It would also significantly reduce our chances of making the playoffs.

Not to reply for JBriggs, but I assume he meant you trade only one of Marcum/Wolf. You would retain Narveson - hence two cheap pitchers out of five.

 

Which was the point I was trying to make earlier. Instead of trading Narveson, I would go with Marcum/Wolf - unless the piece of the puzzle that we are getting back is also a starting position player that is also pre-arby. We need to try to acquire/keep as many pre-arby guys as possible.

[topper09er]

Here are all the FA SS

 

Clint Barmes (33)

Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Orlando Cabrera (37)

Jamey Carroll (37)

Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout

Craig Counsell (41)

Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout

Alex Gonzalez (34)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)

Cesar Izturis (32)

John McDonald (37)

Nick Punto (34)

Edgar Renteria (35)

Jose Reyes (29)

Jimmy Rollins (33)

Ramon Santiago (32)

Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout

Jack Wilson (34)

 

We will not get Reyes or Rollins, and besides those 2 I see a list of guys who suck. It would be nice to retain JHJ as a bench guy and maybe if we tell him he will platoon with Green at 3B he will stay. I would be OK I guess with Barmes because of his D, but he will be 33. Also, it was weird that the Astros refused to trade him last season, maybe they plan on resigning him and think they will keep him? If not I have idea why he wasn't traded this August. That doesn't leave much, I also don't want Furcal plus I think StL will keep him.

 

I think we will go the trade route, a few teams with several SS:

White Sox: Alexei Ramirez, will be 30 and Eduardo Escobar, who looks like Alicedes' long lost twin (all glove no bat) will be 23 and just played the entire year in AAA.

Mets: If they keep Reyes Ruben Tejada may be expendable with Justin Turner at 2B.

Orioles: long shot to trade back for Hardy, there may be bad blood and he was just signed to a 3 year deal, but they do have young guys behind him that could fill in.

[The Truth]

Barmes, Carroll, Scutaro all represent upgrades over Betancourt. Scutaro and Carroll in particular because of their OBP. Carroll has a .358 career OBP (but at 37 is he too old for fulltime SS work?)

 

I think Carroll is a guy I could see the Crew going after. Barmes is younger with great D but his OBP really isn't anything special. Ronny Cedeno has a Yuni-esque OBP. No thanks...

 

Rollins & Reyes, I agree, will be too expensive

 

I like Alexei Ramirez alot (awesome defense and a good enough hitter) and would be thrilled if we traded for him

 

Furcal is too injury prone

 

I cannot imagine the Brewers actually paying Betancourt $6 million

[reillymcshane]

Barmes, Carroll, Scutaro all represent upgrades over Betancourt. Scutaro and Carroll in particular because of their OBP. Carroll has a .358 career OBP (but at 37 is he too old for fulltime SS work?)

 

I think Carroll is a guy I could see the Crew going after. Barmes is younger with great D but his OBP really isn't anything special. Ronny Cedeno has a Yuni-esque OBP. No thanks...

 

Rollins & Reyes, I agree, will be too expensive

 

I like Alexei Ramirez alot (awesome defense and a good enough hitter) and would be thrilled if we traded for him

 

Furcal is too injury prone

 

I cannot imagine the Brewers actually paying Betancourt $6 million

Truth has hit my feelings on SS as well. However, I really like going to Barmes over Carroll. Carroll's going to be 38 next year - not the guy you want at SS for 130 or 140 games. And he's not a great fielder, so that will only get worse. I like Barmes' glove a lot, and the 23 HR he hit a few years ago makes him intriguing in the power department. I wouldn't expect a high OBP, but a .700 OPS with good fielding would be welcome.

 

Also, I love Alexei Ramirez would be awesome. The key is are the Sox willing to deal him, and for what. They seem to be in the rebuilding mode (at least from initial comments from Kenny Williams), which means they'd want a good young player or two (or three). We don't have many of those to spare, and I hate the thought of stripping the farm club even more.

 

I wouldn't mind Furcal, but we'd have to have a good player - Carroll or hairston, for example - on the roster for the inevitable injury.

[nate82]

The White Sox are not in rebuilding mode. They are just retooling which is completely different than rebuilding. If the White Sox were rebuilding you would see them trying to trade Peavy, Dunn, Konerko, and others. I don't see the White Sox doing that and keeping those players in a rebuilding effort would just be plain stupid. The White Sox were not a bad team last year their whole team just under performed for the whole year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the White Sox take the division next year over the Tigers or the Twins. It just doesn't make any sense at all for the White Sox to go into rebuilding mode when they already have pieces no make that a lot of pieces to win the AL Central next year. If anything the White Sox will be looking to add pieces to win the AL Central next year not trade those pieces away.

Narveson makes the most sense because he is cheap and would be controllable for a little bit longer to the team getting him. Since Narveson had a decent year for a #5 pitcher and if the Brewers can get a good piece back I don't see why the Brewers shouldn't trade Narveson as the Brewers already have an inexpensive player available to take his spot in Fiers.

As for a SS I really do not like any of the FA SS's that are available especially Rollins and Carroll. If the Brewers can get Scutaro on the cheap then fine but I wouldn't give Scutaro anything more than $2m a year. Scutaro's defense at SS isn't elite and his bat isn't all that impressive to me he is another Counsell type of a player. Scutaro isn't going to do anything great everything he is going to do is just average and sometimes just below that. I wouldn't want to give a 36 year old SS who is going to be in decline anything more than $2m a year. Barmes is probably the best option but I'm not really sold on him. If the Brewers could get him for 2yrs at $8-10m fine but anything more than that and it will be overpaying for him.

[igor67]

I think the team has a lot of safe financial moves in bringing guys up to reasonably plug a lot of holes. Most of which all things considered would be what I would do. However, based on the large number of offseasons I fully expect Melvin to deal some of those guys and others in a move that none of us sees coming. Losing Fielder ain't easy, but going into last years offseason there was every reason to be fairly pessimistic about Fielder last year, and then Doug pulled multiple rabbits out of his hat. If he had a comparable offseason again we'd be a 100+ win juggernaut with a world series ring. I'll set the bar a little lower and suggest that only one of Green and Gamel is with the Crew next year, Melvin makes one big trade, some debatable signings of mid range guys, and throws in a few nuggets at least one of which manages to turn out big time. End product is a low 90's win team.

[RockCoCougars]

Carroll is garbage. If Melvin wastes even a million dollars on him, I will be irate. Sign Hairston as the backup utility infielder, and ease Counsell into retirement.

[reillymcshane]

Barmes is probably the best option but I'm not really sold on him. If the Brewers could get him for 2yrs at $8-10m fine but anything more than that and it will be overpaying for him.

Florida gave omar infante - a 30 year old (in December) 2B a 2 years at $4 million/year. Infante had a .696 OPS and a 2.7 WAR. He has a 2.6 WAR in 2010.

 

Barmes is older - he'll be 33 on opening day - and plays a more demanding position (SS). He had a .698 OPS and a 3.1 WAR. He also has had some injuries, missing the first month of last year. He's also been a bit inconsistent - WARs of 2.0, 1.7, 0.6 and 3.1 over the past few years.

 

I think the infante contract is a fair starting point for Barmes. I see them as similar value players. And while Barmes plays a more difficult position, Infante has been a little more consistent, and younger.

 

I'd say 2 years and $8 million. Maybe offer a third year option at $4 million with a 500k buyout or something.

[The Truth]

So... what (possibly) would be a move we don't see coming this time around? Trading for an All-Sstar 1B or potential All-Star 1B? Who might fit that category? And how? (we don't have a ton of trade chips, do we?) Narveson plus who plus who for the mythical All-Star 1B?

 

I'm not seeing it

 

But thats the point, the trade we don't see coming. I suppose one would look at which franchises have great 1B's with even greater 1B's poised to take over