What to expect in the offseason

[SconnieKid]

Last year his OPS was .947 against L. ~150 AB last year and ~125 AB this year.

[burnzy24]

I really want JHJ to be back next year to take over Counsell's roll, however, I just get this feeling that some team will offer him a chance to play everyday due to his success when finally taking over for McGehee. Guess time will tell but that is my fear.

[BCZF]

Not sure where to post this, but the ever enlightened folks on the MLB forums are glad our "crap team" was eliminated by the "professional" Cards... They are so cute..

[logan82]

I cannot believe at this point that Casey's previous 2 years were a fluke. He's young, relatively cheap, and proven-productive, which are the exact traits we'd be looking for in his replacement.

 

I wouldn't really call 29 young for a baseball player. Between his MiLB stats and this last year there is plenty to say that 2009-2010 may have been fluke seasons for McGehee. I would think he will be better against LHP going forward. On the other hand I would rather not see Gamel of Green platooned.

 

If Fielder goes, then Gamel or Hart to 1B and the other to RF. Trade

one of Narveson, Estrada, or Fiers for an upgrade at SS. Green starts

at 3B except against tough lefties. McGehee is your backup 3B/1B,

Hairston replaces Counsell as the backup MI. Gomez and Morgan keep

platooning in CF, and Schafer is your backup OF who comes in as

defensive replacements late in games with Gomez. If Fielder takes 5

wins with him, it's almost not possible to not pick that back up with

improvement at SS, 3B, bullpen LHP, and offensive bench. Plus a year of

experience under the belt of a rookie manager who made mistakes and

hopefully has learned from them.

I like this plan. It is the one I would go with.

[dlk9s]

Getting Dunn would be a horrible move. Even if he bounces back to be mediocre at the plate, he'd actually be a downgrade from Prince in the field.

[strawbossisevil]

strawbossisevil wrote:

 

 

He was above replacement level on the season, which is better than you EVER gave him credit for. He didn't get on base much (but not many shortstops do), but he was above average at slugging. His offense was close to league average simply because the SS position is somewhat down from previous seasons.

 

No one wants him back next season, but I don't think we would have gone any further this season with the mythical replacement level SS you were clamoring for going into the season.

Replacement level is still 2 wins below average. I figured he would be close to replacement level.

 

Close is a subjective term but the average MLB SS hit .262/.316/.378/.695. Betancourt .268/.271/.381/.652. I guess .381 is above .378 so sure his SLG is technically above average.

 

Of course we wouldn't have gone any further with a replacement level SS. I didn't want a replacement level SS, I wanted an average one.

 

To be honest, he hit even worse than I expected.

 

endaround]Gamel hasn't really shown any ability to play RF.

Or 1B.

Even Money said Gamel was okay at 1B this year.

 

 

I'm pretty sure from the start you claimed he would be below replacement,(I'll have to dig back and look for specific quotes when I have the time, I'm fairly certain they exist). Fact is, he wasn't below replacement. Add to that that there were no "average" SS available in the past offseason, and I guess it just illustrates why some of us got so fed up with the over the top negativity...where many were stating that replacement level would be an improvement...it wouldn't have been. And 0 legitimate alternatives were ever discussed apart from the mythical "average SS", whoever that might be.

 

This next year, there are a few better FA options at SS. I hope the Brewers make every effort to pursue those options.

[pitchleague]

I don't think I would even want Dunn at this point anymore let alone trade Gamel for him. I just looked up his contract and no way do I want him.

 

• 4 years/$56M (2011-14)
  
  • signed by Chicago White Sox as a free agent 12/3/10
  • 11:$12M, 12:$14M, 13:$15M, 14:$15M

yep, those are horrible contract numbers based on his production. But, what if Dunn is the 2012 version of the 2011 version of Lance Berkman?

[MNBrew]

I cannot believe at this point that Casey's previous 2 years were a fluke. He's young, relatively cheap, and proven-productive, which are the exact traits we'd be looking for in his replacement.

 

I wouldn't really call 29 young for a baseball player. Between his MiLB stats and this last year there is plenty to say that 2009-2010 may have been fluke seasons for McGehee. I would think he will be better against LHP going forward. On the other hand I would rather not see Gamel of Green platooned.

 

If Fielder goes, then Gamel or Hart to 1B and the other to RF. Trade

one of Narveson, Estrada, or Fiers for an upgrade at SS. Green starts

at 3B except against tough lefties. McGehee is your backup 3B/1B,

Hairston replaces Counsell as the backup MI. Gomez and Morgan keep

platooning in CF, and Schafer is your backup OF who comes in as

defensive replacements late in games with Gomez. If Fielder takes 5

wins with him, it's almost not possible to not pick that back up with

improvement at SS, 3B, bullpen LHP, and offensive bench. Plus a year of

experience under the belt of a rookie manager who made mistakes and

hopefully has learned from them.

I like this plan. It is the one I would go with.

I'm also in agreement big-time w/ Louis Ely's summary (since he basically said the same things I said in the post prior to his -- but who doesn't like affirmation?).

 

In regards to McGehee, I'd be inclined to believe his '09 & '10 were a fluke if it'd only been one year, not two. But it was two. Most "one-hit wonders" fizzle in the 2nd year, in essence never really getting out of the sophomore slump. Improvement in the 2nd year would seem to bode well. Again, going all the way back to ST, the guy has been "off" this year since Day One. Here's hoping he regains that form -- and it's a huge plus for the Brewers if he does.

 

And yes, McGehee's 29, so he's not truly young, but he's sure as heck not old.

[The Truth]

Adam Dunnkinda seems like the type of move Doug Melvin might make...somehow I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn hit 35 HR's for an NL team next year either...but he's a big risk. He had a stunningly bad year in 2011

[danzig6767]

Gamel hasn't really shown any ability to play RF.

Or 1B.

 

Hart is a below average outfielder, at least in my view. Braun surpassed him as a defender a few years ago.

I would hope the Brewers at least try it in spring training. Maybe ask Gamel to play RF in Winter Ball?

 

Hart has always lacked instincts as an outfielder, but until recently, he at least had the speed to sometimes run down balls in his area. For whatever reason though, his speed fell off the cliff over the last year or so and now it's painful to watch him in RF. Plus, his arm isn't strong and never has been accurate. Gamel would at least bring more speed to RF and a much better arm. At firstbase, Hart would offer much more height/length compared to Prince.

 

SS-- As others have mentioned, Barmes is the guy i really really hope that Melvin targets and can get signed. Big upgrade defensively and tolerable at the plate.

 

3rd-- Hopefully Green gets all the at bats vs righthanders and platoons with either Hairston or McGehee vs lefthanders depending on who returns.

 

1st-- Move Hart there please, it was painful watching him in RF fail repeatedly to make any important plays.

 

RF-- Gamel and in case he struggles vs lefties, maybe add a Cody Ross or Reed Johnson type as a RH bench player that hits lefties pretty good and could platoon with Gamel if needed. Plus, at the way his speed declined so noticeably, it could decline even more next year.

 

SP-- Leave it alone

 

RP-- See if Saito will come back on a similar one year deal with incentives. Shop McGehee and see if a team might give up a RP if that team feels Casey would rebound while still being cheap? Hope Kitzler becomes a key cog. Relief pitchers can often be unpredictable, hopefully in whatever way Doug finds a power arm to become a reliable 7th/8th inning guy. In today's baseball where starters don't go past 7 innings very often, those 7th/8th/9th inning guys are so much more important today. Good luck trying to get in the playoffs and have success there when your main back-end relievers are way to often blowing should be win games. Look at St. Louis before their pen stabilized and even the Brewers when Loe was the main setup guy, lots of very frustrating late game blown leads. Braddock coming back and effective would also help immensely.

[Bombers]

Dunn - no, I'll pass. Sox would have to eat his whole contract and I wouldn't give up much for him.

Schafer - no. We can't have Braun and Hart as the only guys in our OF capable of hitting the ball out of the park.

Green - yes give him a shot but if he is given a shot I doubt gamel is still here

Gamel - see green, I don't see Melvin inserting 2 rookies on a 96 win team

Mcgehee - backup 1B/3B

 

I don't see Melvin moving hart to 1B and then getting a new 3B, SS, and RF all at the same time. We won 96 games not 69 games. Chances are Melvin makes two moves, 1B and SS. 3B will probably be mcGehee again unless Green tears the cover off the ball in spring training.

 

I just don't see a scenario where a 96 win team has 4 of 8 positional changes from the year before. ( some even want 5 by dumping Morgan/Gomez) ... 5 moves is pretty ridiculous, IMO.

[bucksbeat]

I'm with you on moving Hart to 1B. I'm thinking a little risky in filling the RF hole though. Sure, get Gamel ready to man the position. I'm interested in the Grady Sizemore situation in Cleveland. Monster talent that has played only 104 games the last two years. Cleveland has an $8.5 million option with a $500,000 buyout. I'm thinking they'll set him free. I'd love the Brewers to try to get him at the reduced rate his injury history will force him to go for.

[markedman5]

Hart isn't moving to first

 

http://twitter.com/#!/Haudricourt/status/126725408640077824

[reillymcshane]

Hart isn't moving to first

 

http://twitter.com/#!/Haudricourt/status/126725408640077824

Michael Hunt of the Journal Sentinel said a couple days ago that hart wasn't interested in playing 1B.

 

But as poorly as the Brewers were defensively against the Cardinals in

the last two games of the NLDS, they cannot afford another liability in

the infield. Whether it's Mat Gamel, whom they sent to Nashville to

learn how to play first base, or Corey Hart, who doesn't want to play

the position again, or somebody outside the organization, a minimum of

an average defensive player is mandatory.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/s...addressed-132030053.html

[joepepsi]

I doubt they keep both Hairston and McGehee, especially since McGehee is about to get a big raise in arbitration. Hairston will be a more useful player and see a lot of regular ABs backing up Green.

 

I want to see Gamel at 1B. Maybe they (gulp) bring back Kotsay as backup 1B/OF?

 

I will not be surprised when YuniB has his option picked up.

[monty57]

I was all for McGehee staying on as part of a Gamel/Green/McGehee 1B/3B troika until I read the MLBTradeRumors article linked in another thread, where the author assumed McGehee would make $3.1MM in year 1 arby. As bad as he was this season, if the author was close to correct, I'd set Casey free. At $1MM or so, hold onto him and hope for a rebound. At $3.1MM, there are better ways to spend money. Hairston could probably be had for that, and I'd sure rather have JHJ than McGehee.

[The Truth]

Come on people this is Doug Melvin we're talking about. He probably doesn't see Yuni B as a problem. He will likely find another aged OF to replace Kotsay and will concentrate mostly on 1B or RF depending on what they do with Hart (but Hart says he doesn't want to play 1B apparently). He'll look for more aged relief pitchers to replace Saito/Hawkins. Loe will get slotted in as a late inning reliever again with quotes about "liking his toughness". They will look to Rickie Weeks to bat clean-up...

[The Truth]

I was going to add: I think the most significant thing the Brewers will do this off-season is sign Greinke longterm (which I'm all in favor of) and make at least a few passive attempts to sign Fielder.

[monty57]

Come on people this is Doug Melvin we're talking about. He probably doesn't see Yuni B as a problem.

 

I think he realized all along that Yuni was a problem, but he got stuck with him in the Greinke trade and didn't have money or options to do anything about it last offseason. Then he probably inquired about trades at the deadline, to be told that Reyes and Barmes weren't going anywhere, and the Dodgers were only trading one of Furcal and Carroll, and we were outbid for Furcal's services. Melvin snagged Hairston, only to have Weeks go down. By the time Weeks was back, McGehee was at least as bad as Yuni (I would've went with Green, but there was no way Roenicke was going to do that), so Hairston took over 3B instead of SS.

 

Melvin did put together the best Brewers team in three decades, and maybe the best ever. I don't expect huge moves this offseason, as most of the team is in place, but I also don't expect him to overlook the few holes we have which can't be easily filled in-house.

[The Truth]

I think he realized all along that Yuni was a problem, but he got stuck with him in the Greinke trade and didn't have money or options to do anything about it last offseason. Then he probably inquired about trades at the deadline, to be told that Reyes and Barmes weren't going anywhere, and the Dodgers were only trading one of Furcal and Carroll, and we were outbid for Furcal's services. Melvin snagged Hairston, only to have Weeks go down. By the time Weeks was back, McGehee was at least as bad as Yuni (I would've went with Green, but there was no way Roenicke was going to do that), so Hairston took over 3B instead of SS.

I hope you are right. Didn't he trade for Hairston after Weeks went down? Weren't there quotes by Melvin around the trade deadline in support of Yuni? (could've just been PR/blowing smoke/trying to drive down trade value for SS's at the time). The Cardinals didn't give up a whole lot for Furcal as I recall.

 

Its might've been arguable that the team that ended up getting Furcal was the difference in the NLCS, but the Brewers pitching failing to step up negates that...

 

I think Melvin did a great job putting together this '11 team, and for the most part the '08 team too... I just don't see major overhauls like some are suggesting and I think he has a track record of a blind spot for over the hill outfielders and relief pitchers (read: gritty veterans), and I think he greatly overvalues Yuni B (and Kotsay, and Loe, and Hawkins)

[monty57]

I just don't see major overhauls like some are suggesting and I think he has a track record of a blind spot for over the hill outfielders and relief pitchers (read: gritty veterans), and I think he greatly overvalues Yuni B (and Kotsay, and Loe, and Hawkins)

 

I don't see major overhauls either. I mentioned elsewhere, I'm hoping for Barmes, Saito, Hairston, and a FA veteran bullpen arm to go along with the annual veteran OF. Vegas should put odds on which guy Melvin pulls out of retirement this season to be the #5 OF.

 

I share your concerns that Melvin has "switched gears" from relying on prospects to fill vital roles to filling those roles with vets, but I added up the salaries, and if we don't make any trades dumping a contract, I don't think we have the money to make a lot of big moves. In other words, we may have to start Gamel & Green. However, signing Barmes ($3.95MM this year) would cost us about the same as exercising Yuni's option. Barmes falls in the "veteran" mold, only he's actually good, so I think Melvin (even if he has switched gears) could get behind signing a guy like Barmes. Furcal's another guy who has some "warts" and may be able to be had for a reasonable contract. The $4MM we would spend on the waste of space that is Yuni could go a long ways towards signing someone who can improve the team. Last offseason there weren't options... this year there are.

[paul253]

Come on people this is Doug Melvin we're talking about. He probably doesn't see Yuni B as a problem.

 

And that leads to this. Melvin's comments on Yuni B......

 

"I thought Yuni Betancourt was a better player than what his critics

said. I thought he did a very good job. If you look at the on-base

percentage, that's the thing that always seems to hurt him. I thought he

made a lot of good plays, a lot of outstanding plays. I like the way he

starts a double play. He's as good as I've seen doing that. He made

some outstanding plays. I'm very surprised at the critics of him,

personally. I know a lot of it is the analytical studies defensively.

I'm not a total believer in that. Sure, he made some errors but he also

made some outstanding plays."

 

Yuni B. will be a Brewer next year.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/132172268.html

[PrinceEatMeat]

There's a reason Melvin got the buyout money for Betancourt in the trade. He's going to buy him out. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't sign him for less, but I doubt that happens. He's just being complimentary. He's not gonna come out and say that Betancourt is awful and he'll definitely replace him. Melvin will sign a cheaper, better alternative. Either that or he makes a play for Reyes. No way he pays Yuni $6 million. He could sign a different SS, plus someone else for that money.

[The Truth]

Doug Melvin: "I know a lot of it is the analytical studies defensively.

I'm not a total believer in that.

"

Wow, not that is a real shocking statement considering the source. And I thought Melvin considered defense a huge importance.

[MNBrew]

Doug Melvin: "I know a lot of it is the analytical studies defensively.

I'm not a total believer in that.

"

Wow, not that is a real shocking statement considering the source. And I thought Melvin considered defense a huge importance.

Defensive measurements, however they've advanced over the years, are still by far the hardest things to quantify and involve more conjecture than offensive or pitching stats. Thus, there's more room for "eyeball" evidence, of which Melvin and the whole organization has plenty.

 

So while on this board a statement like Melvin's is ripe for ridicule in the eyes of many, to those of us with less of a stats-heavy bias, it makes some decent sense and is hardly heretical to our views of common sense.

 

Plus, Melvin's not gonna come out and bash the heck out of a player in a news conference like that. He's got too much class to do that.