What to expect in the offseason

[reillymcshane]

This offseason work to resign Saito, Hawkins and Hairston

Counsel, Yuni, Kotsay are let go/retire.

Sign Barmes at SS (2-year $8 million). It costs nothing in draft picks.

Fielder and K-Rod are FA and gone. Take the draft picks if possible.

Cut McGehee (unless you really think he can rebound, but otherwise, he's due to make $2-3 million in arby)

Give 3B to Green

Give 1B to Gamel

Sign someone to platoon with Gamel at 1B if necessary (and play 3B if he can).

Keep Gomez to platoon with Morgan.

Give a guy like Gindl or Schafer a backup spot in the OF.

 

The 2012 team:

 

• Your rotation is intact from last year. Great. It was a strength, despite what happened in the playoffs. Keep it together. if there are injuries, you have candidates to replace the starters.
• Bullpen is intact, except for K-Rod. I like trying out a guy like Peralta in the pen. You also have a bevy of guys coming back from injuries/minors - stetter, parra, kintzler, McClendon, Braddock - who could help out.
• Defense is going to be better with no Fielder, Yuni and McGehee. I'm not saying Gamel and Green are gold glovers, but they are upgrades. A barmes type SS is also a huge upgrade over yuni.
  
• The big question is do you 'trust' rookies at 3B and 1B. I say, what the hell. They have nothing left to prove at AAA. You either need to give them a chance or get rid of them. Give 'em the job now and know they'll have some struggles, but also that they will have a chance to thrive. And if they don't? You have a guy like Hairston who can play some at 3B. As well as McGehee (if you keep him) or whomever you sign to platoon with Gamel. But more importantly, your payroll isn't that high - around $80 million. You have the financial flexibility to add a player like K-Rod if needed. So if Gamel is flopping after two months, and we decide he'll never figure it out, you can snag a decent player for cheap (like with K-Rod) to replace him. There's a huge upside to Gamel and/or Green succeeding. Cheap talent putting up decent numbers is gold for a team like Milwaukee.

[logan82]

Top items that need addressing:

1. Upgrade SS - Yuni better be gone - The issue with Yuni wasn't his hitting. He was ok for a SS.

He really wasn't. He was one of the worst hitting SS in baseball this year. Well below average.

[yoshii8]

SP- I expect Gallardo, Greinke, Narveson, one of Marcum/Wolf back w/ the other one being traded. For the 5th starter, I believe Peralta, Fiers, Estrada and possible FA veteran will compete for it.

 

Bullpen - I expect Axford, Loe, and 3 or 4 of McClendon/Estrada/Fiers/Kintzler/Dillard/Stetter/Parra/Braddock, and a couple of good FA relievers acquired.

 

Lineup - I expect Weeks, Braun, Morgan/Gomez, Lucroy, Hart to all be back in the same role.

 

If they don't re-sign Prince, I hope they go w/ Gamel at 1B instead of acquiring an Adam Laroche type player. I'd also strongly consider trying to acquire Daric Barton from Oakland, who I believe can still be a very good player, and might be available for cheap.

At SS, I love watching Jose Reyes play, if they Brewers did their research and decided he was worth the gamble, I'd be happy to see the Brewers go after him. Other than that, I wouldn't hate seeing Clint Barmes or Marco Scutaro brought in.

At 3b, I'm hoping they give Green a shot, while bringing back Hairston to get a few starts a week. The only FA 3b that excites me is Aramis Ramirez, and I'm nervous about his age, and defensive issues. I'd also like to see them try to acquire Chase Headley if San Diego made him available.

 

Bench - I expect the bench to be Kottaras, Gomez/Morgan, FA veteran OF, Hairston, FA veteran INF. Hopefully they bring in somebody w/ power.

[gregmag]

This offseason work to resign Saito, Hawkins and Hairston

Counsel, Yuni, Kotsay are let go/retire.

Sign Barmes at SS (2-year $8 million). It costs nothing in draft picks.

Fielder and K-Rod are FA and gone. Take the draft picks if possible.

Cut McGehee (unless you really think he can rebound, but otherwise, he's due to make $2-3 million in arby)

Give 3B to Green

Give 1B to Gamel

Sign someone to platoon with Gamel at 1B if necessary (and play 3B if he can).

Keep Gomez to platoon with Morgan.

Give a guy like Gindl or Schafer a backup spot in the OF.

 

The 2012 team:

 

• Your rotation is intact from last year. Great. It was a strength, despite what happened in the playoffs. Keep it together. if there are injuries, you have candidates to replace the starters.
• Bullpen is intact, except for K-Rod. I like trying out a guy like Peralta in the pen. You also have a bevy of guys coming back from injuries/minors - stetter, parra, kintzler, McClendon, Braddock - who could help out.
• Defense is going to be better with no Fielder, Yuni and McGehee. I'm not saying Gamel and Green are gold glovers, but they are upgrades. A barmes type SS is also a huge upgrade over yuni.
  
• The big question is do you 'trust' rookies at 3B and 1B. I say, what the hell. They have nothing left to prove at AAA. You either need to give them a chance or get rid of them. Give 'em the job now and know they'll have some struggles, but also that they will have a chance to thrive. And if they don't? You have a guy like Hairston who can play some at 3B. As well as McGehee (if you keep him) or whomever you sign to platoon with Gamel. But more importantly, your payroll isn't that high - around $80 million. You have the financial flexibility to add a player like K-Rod if needed. So if Gamel is flopping after two months, and we decide he'll never figure it out, you can snag a decent player for cheap (like with K-Rod) to replace him. There's a huge upside to Gamel and/or Green succeeding. Cheap talent putting up decent numbers is gold for a team like Milwaukee.

All of this makes a ton of sense to me. Best summary / diagnosis I've seen. I would only add that, past this, there are going to be opportunities we can't see yet. DM's greatest strength as a GM is probably seizing opportunities to grab useful mid-roster talent on the cheap and quick (Morgan, Rodriguez). I have no doubt that at least one of our immediate problems will get solved that way, and such a move may have domino effects on other spots.

[monty57]

•The big question is do you 'trust' rookies at 3B and 1B. I say, what the hell. They have nothing left to prove at AAA. You either need to give them a chance or get rid of them. Give 'em the job now and know they'll have some struggles, but also that they will have a chance to thrive. And if they don't? You have a guy like Hairston who can play some at 3B. As well as McGehee (if you keep him) or whomever you sign to platoon with Gamel. But more importantly, your payroll isn't that high - around $80 million. You have the financial flexibility to add a player like K-Rod if needed. So if Gamel is flopping after two months, and we decide he'll never figure it out, you can snag a decent player for cheap (like with K-Rod) to replace him. There's a huge upside to Gamel and/or Green succeeding. Cheap talent putting up decent numbers is gold for a team like Milwaukee.

 

In my opinion, this is really the key to Milwaukee's mid-to-long-term future. Next year, they'd be fine with picking up a veteran RF/1B, and allowing Hairston to play 3B. However, a team like the Brewers absolutely needs to have pre-arby guys playing a significant role on the team if they want any kind of sustainable success. Having some guys making $450k (or whatever minimum is these days) is what allows us to sign guys like Braun, Yo, etc to long-term deals. If we don't let Green, Gamel, and other youngsters get their shot, we will need to trade guys like Weeks, Yo and Braun when we get in the "money glut" in a few years. If Green and Gamel start for us next year, then maybe Peralta/Fiers, Gindl/Schafer start for us in 2013, and that trend continues of 1-2 rookies working there way in each year, we can continue to be successful for a long time. We don't need these rookies to be "the next Braun," as we have Braun locked up. We just need them to be Major League players. Some will succeed, and some will not, but with a limited payroll, we need to allow some rookies to play.

[logan82]

There is a chance that Gamel or Green could be very good MLB hitters. Going with cheap veterans at 1B, RF or 3B is a safer with a more predictable outcome, but I think you have to bet onpossible upside a bit if you want to stay competitive as a mid/small market team in baseball. In my opinion the potential downside isn't much worse with Green or Gamel but the potential upside is much higher.

[And That]

Here's what I would (try to) do, if not what I think the Brewers will do:

• Sign Clint Barmes; if he's unavailable, sign Ramon Santiago as well as Jamey Carroll or Nick Punto.
• Attempt to re-sign both Saito and Hawkins and hope one of them does re-sign.
• Attempt to re-sign Jerry Hairston; if he doesn't want to sign, sign Kevin Kouzmanoff or Nick Punto (if you haven't signed him already).
• Platoon Hairston/Kouzmanoff/Punto with Green at third base unless...
• McGehee shows something in camp, because he's coming back next year.
  
• Sign Reed Johnson, Cody Ross or Josh Willingham to platoon with Gamel in RF and be a decent bat off the bench.
• Then, obviously, move Hart to 1B.
• Don't mess with the pitching staff too much.
• Option Estrada to AAA to get him and keep him stretched out.

My roster would be:

• Position players: Lucroy, Kottaras, Hart, Weeks, Barmes, Green, two of Hairston/Punto/McGehee/Carroll/Santiago/Kouzmanoff, Gamel, Morgan, Gomez, Braun, one of Willingham/Ross/Johnson.
• Pitchers: Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson, Axford, one of Saito/Hawkins, Stetter, Parra, Loe, Kintzler, de la Cruz.

[endaround]

I still don't get the idea to move Hart to 1B for Gamel when Gamel hasn't really shown any ability to play RF. Hart isn't good but he's about average and still better in RF than Braun is in LF.

[strawbossisevil]

Top items that need addressing:

1. Upgrade SS - Yuni better be gone - The issue with Yuni wasn't his hitting. He was ok for a SS.

He really wasn't. He was one of the worst hitting SS in baseball this year. Well below average.

 

 

He was above replacement level on the season, which is better than you EVER gave him credit for. He didn't get on base much (but not many shortstops do), but he was above average at slugging. His offense was close to league average simply because the SS position is somewhat down from previous seasons.

 

No one wants him back next season, but I don't think we would have gone any further this season with the mythical replacement level SS you were clamoring for going into the season.

[And That]

Gamel hasn't really shown any ability to play RF.

Or 1B.

 

Hart is a below average outfielder, at least in my view. Braun surpassed him as a defender a few years ago.

[MLS1965]

I would not hold your breath on ever seeing Zach Braddock on the mound again.

[logan82]

strawbossisevil wrote:

 

 

He was above replacement level on the season, which is better than you EVER gave him credit for. He didn't get on base much (but not many shortstops do), but he was above average at slugging. His offense was close to league average simply because the SS position is somewhat down from previous seasons.

 

No one wants him back next season, but I don't think we would have gone any further this season with the mythical replacement level SS you were clamoring for going into the season.

Replacement level is still 2 wins below average. I figured he would be close to replacement level.

 

Close is a subjective term but the average MLB SS hit .262/.316/.378/.695. Betancourt .268/.271/.381/.652. I guess .381 is above .378 so sure his SLG is technically above average.

 

Of course we wouldn't have gone any further with a replacement level SS. I didn't want a replacement level SS, I wanted an average one.

 

To be honest, he hit even worse than I expected.

 

endaround]Gamel hasn't really shown any ability to play RF.

Or 1B.

Even Money said Gamel was okay at 1B this year.

[RockCoCougars]

Even Money said Gamel was okay at 1B this year.

 

Right. Then he questioned whether or not he could hit. This causes me to question his sanity a bit. I really want to give Gamel first crack, but now that the enormity of Prince's departure has hit me, I'm starting to second-guess myself. I really don't see how you can win starting both Gamel and Green at the corners as some have suggested. I'd like to have both on the roster and start one (preferably Gamel). In that case, you need to get a veteran power bat at third (which is a position with a dearth of talent to begin with). I wonder if the team would have moved Gamel from third had they known that Casey was going to regress.

[Raw Biz]

Even Money said Gamel was okay at 1B this year.

 

Right. Then he questioned whether or not he could hit. This causes me to question his sanity a bit. I really want to give Gamel first crack, but now that the enormity of Prince's departure has hit me, I'm starting to second-guess myself. I really don't see how you can win starting both Gamel and Green at the corners as some have suggested. I'd like to have both on the roster and start one (preferably Gamel). In that case, you need to get a veteran power bat at third (which is a position with a dearth of talent to begin with). I wonder if the team would have moved Gamel from third had they known that Casey was going to regress.

Why? There is no mystical voodoo veteran quality that makes a player better. Talent trumps years in my book. Now if the veteran bat is better than Green/Gamel (and the cost is reasonable), then I say sure take a look. But I see no reason why a team can't win just because it has a couple of "rookies" playing.

[MNBrew]

"But

if you allow for the fact that the first half of 2011 he was adjusting

to a new league, it's reasonable to expect him to hit .270/.290/.400"

 

He hasn't done that since he was 25, so I would consider that more of a

pipe dream than reasonable. And batters that move from the AL to the NL

typically do better (weaker pitching), not worse.

He was

quite close to that in 2010 w/ KC (.259/.288/.405) and only a bit lower

in 2011 w/ the

Brewers (.252/.271/.381). I have serious doubts about whether I'd want

Yuni back in

2012, but I think Briggs' point about how he played in the 2nd half has

some merit. For that matter, I would agree that there was serious

predisposing about him right away, some of which was realistic but much

of which assuming the absolute worst, which he wasn't.

 

To whomever noted Yuni was above average this year but questioned

whether he could be for 2 consecutive years (that's a positive WAR,

right?), he already has: 2010 & 2011.

[reillymcshane]

Top items that need addressing:

1. Upgrade SS - Yuni better be gone - The issue with Yuni wasn't his hitting. He was ok for a SS.

He really wasn't. He was one of the worst hitting SS in baseball this year. Well below average.

 

 

He was above replacement level on the season, which is better than you EVER gave him credit for. He didn't get on base much (but not many shortstops do), but he was above average at slugging. His offense was close to league average simply because the SS position is somewhat down from previous seasons.

 

No one wants him back next season, but I don't think we would have gone any further this season with the mythical replacement level SS you were clamoring for going into the season.

Yuni as a hitter in 2011

 

Based upon 19 SS qualifying

 

17th in AVE

18th in OBP

13th in SLG

16th in OPS

 

So, based upon guys who played every day, he's not average.

 

However, that's not fair in that 11 teams didn't have a guy qualify, perhaps because they stunk. So let's expand the plate appearances to 350 - that will give us 31 shortstops.

 

Yuni's positions out of 31 shortstops:

 

21 in AVE

23 in OPS

28 in OBP

16 in SLG

 

That puts Yuni around the lower 1/3 mark as a hitter. He is average when it comes to slugging, but below average to very bad in others.

 

Oh yes, he was 6th in RBI and 8th HR for all SS last year. Those numbers matter to people. However, I argue the RBI numbers are simply a reflection of his opportunities. The HR show in his average slugging percentage numbers.

[MNBrew]

Yuni as a hitter in 2011

 

Based upon 19 SS qualifying

 

17th in AVE

18th in OBP

13th in SLG

16th in OPS

 

So, based upon guys who played every day, he's not average.

 

However, that's not fair in that 11 teams didn't have a guy qualify, perhaps because they stunk. So let's expand the plate appearances to 350 - that will give us 31 shortstops.

 

Yuni's positions out of 31 shortstops:

 

21 in AVE

23 in OPS

28 in OBP

16 in SLG

 

That puts Yuni around the lower 1/3 mark as a hitter. He is average when it comes to slugging, but below average to very bad in others.

 

Oh yes, he was 6th in RBI and 8th HR for all SS last year. Those numbers matter to people. However, I argue the RBI numbers are simply a reflection of his opportunities. The HR show in his average slugging percentage numbers.

Two points:

1) Averaging Yuni's ranking out of 31 SS's for those 4 categories, he's 22nd out of 31. That puts him at about the 30th percentile.

2) RBIs do reflect opportunities, but you still have to do something in those opportunities, which Yuni did -- nothing great, but still something.

[Mase]

I have this feeling - and don't kill me for this, I don't like it much - but have this feeling that Mat Gamel could be moved to the White Sox for Adam Dunn. The Brewers supposedly had some interest in the past, the White Sox supposedly had an interest in Gamel. They eat a lot of his salary and Dunn goes back to the NL. Just a feeling, but maybe the White Sox add a reliever to make it a deal...I don't know.

[logan82]

MNBrew wrote:

To whomever noted Yuni was above average this year but questioned

whether he could be for 2 consecutive years (that's a positive WAR,

right?), he already has: 2010 & 2011.

Average is 2 WAR.

 

 

I don't think I would even want Dunn at this point anymore let alone trade Gamel for him. I just looked up his contract and no way do I want him.

 

• 4 years/$56M (2011-14)
  
  • signed by Chicago White Sox as a free agent 12/3/10
  • 11:$12M, 12:$14M, 13:$15M, 14:$15M

[Baldkin]

2) RBIs do reflect opportunities, but you still have to do something in those opportunities, which Yuni did -- nothing great, but still something.

With RISP: .237 average, .614 OPS, with men on .216 avg, .567 OPS. He did something, he pooped the bed with his opportunities.

 

To compare: McGehee with RISP: .244/.738, with men on, .226/.651.

[MNBrew]

2) RBIs do reflect opportunities, but you still have to do something in those opportunities, which Yuni did -- nothing great, but still something.

With RISP: .237 average, .614 OPS, with men on .216 avg, .567 OPS. He did something, he pooped the bed with his opportunities.

 

To compare: McGehee with RISP: .244/.738, with men on, .226/.651.

I didn't mean that Yuni did well. But we've certainly endured plenty of guys who've done worse. Heck, lousy BA w/ RISP was practically a team-wide epidemic at times over the previous 5 years.

 

p.s. Cool avatar, Baldkin.

[MNBrew]

I still believe 1B & 3B are covered by a combination of McGehee, Green, & Gamel in 2012. The wild-card factor there is if Hart moves to 1B, in which case Gamel may be given a shot at RF.

 

I cannot believe at this point that Casey's previous 2 years were a fluke. He's young, relatively cheap, and proven-productive, which are the exact traits we'd be looking for in his replacement. At the very least, I think he's brought to ST to compete for the 3B job. . . . And I think he's worth keeping around should Green & Gamel earn the starting corner IF spots b/c if either falters, he's got a track record of productivity that's exactly what you want to be able to promote from your bench to your lineup.

 

My take on the 2012 25-man roster:

 

Starting OF: Braun, Morgan/Gomez, Hart

Starting IF: Weeks, mystery SS (tba), 2 of McGehee/Green/Gamel

Starting C: Lucroy

 

Reserve OF: Morgan/Gomez, Schafer/Gindl/veteran signee TBA

Reserve IF: Hairston + 1 of McGehee/Green/Gamel

Reserve C: Kottaras

 

Rotation: Same as 2011

Bullpen: Axford, Saito, Hawkins, Estrada, Loe, Dillard, De La Cruz

 

Those last 2 spots + possibly Loe's could also be filled by or at least competed for by McClendon, Braddock, Stetter, Parra, & DiFelice, plus also Fiers & Peralta.

[LouisEly]

"I just mentioned it but the more I read, I don't understand why some people seem to want to overhaul a 96 win team. We are losing Fielder (most likely) but that is it. Have our whole rotation back. 4 of 5 IF's, 4 of 4 OF and need a few more people in the pen. I don't get the trade this, this, this, release this, this, this, and move him there or there, or there. Realistically, do any of you really think DM and RR want to completely flip this team when they are already built without Prince as a possible contender? Team has chemistry and an amazing club house, all the guys love each other.....do really want to mess that completely up?"

 

This. Yes, statistically/theoretically/in fantasy land they should have won 90 games. 1) Even if they won 90 games they still would have made the playoffs, and B) no, they should have won what they did considering how much time Grienke, Hart, Hawkins, Saito, Braun, Weeks, Braddock, Stetter, Parra, and Kintzler lost due to injuries plus Lucroy getting minimal work in spring training due to an injury. They won 96 games with no LHP in the bullpen. They won 96 games with Loe as the setup man for half the season pitching to lefties. They won with the combined awful bench production of Counsell, Nieves, Lopez, Almonte, and Gamel. Anyone remember Nieves starting 16 games?

 

If Fielder goes, then Gamel or Hart to 1B and the other to RF. Trade one of Narveson, Estrada, or Fiers for an upgrade at SS. Green starts at 3B except against tough lefties. McGehee is your backup 3B/1B, Hairston replaces Counsell as the backup MI. Gomez and Morgan keep platooning in CF, and Schafer is your backup OF who comes in as defensive replacements late in games with Gomez. If Fielder takes 5 wins with him, it's almost not possible to not pick that back up with improvement at SS, 3B, bullpen LHP, and offensive bench. Plus a year of experience under the belt of a rookie manager who made mistakes and hopefully has learned from them.

 

That's it. Trade from their surplus of above-average 5th starters for an upgrade at SS, get just a .740 OPS and average defense from 3B, and have two of Stetter/Parra/Braddock healthy in the bullpen to neutralize LH hitters in the late innings and they should be back over 90 wins and in the playoffs again. As we saw with the Cardinals this year (and in 2006), just get in the playoffs and get hot in late September and anything can happen.

[SconnieKid]

I was thinking a Green/McGehee platoon at 3rd would make sense. Then I looked at Casey's splits against lefties. What right handed 3B hits .169/.228/.413 against lefties?? Wow Casey.

[RockCoCougars]

I like the Dunn idea, but the White Sox are going to kick in some substantial cash (or Alexi Ramirez) or I laugh and hang up the phone. What is the deal with them, are they in rebuilding mode, or what? Considering his contract, it'd probably be impossible to get Ramirez from them, unless they really want to unload Dunn and get something good back.