What to expect in the offseason

[mothershipconnection]

Here's what I'd like off the top of my head:

 

1) It may be possible to get a good deal on an aging Carlos Beltran - get him and plunk him down in RF

2) re-sign Hairston - he's the utility guy, starts some 3B and SS, and is there for a Weeks injury

3) Move Hart to 1B

4) Gamel spells Beltran and Hart, fills in when Beltran likely gets hurt

5) Green takes 3B

6) Find an all-glove SS, even if his bat sucks.

7) re-sign Saito

8) Hold your breath and roll the dice on an attempt to get another 2011 Saito-type reliever

[Rhett16]

I know people hate Yuni, and they have their reasons for it, but obviously Melvin and Roenicke don't. They had a chance to trade for a SS at the break, and they refused to. You could have had hairston play a little SS, but they didn't do that. Obviously the team doesn't see Betancourt as the big glaring weakness that the fans do, I wouldn't be surprised if he is back next year. A lot of people are talking about Reyes....for the money you'd have to pay that walking injury, you may as well just keep Prince, who at least is durable.

[nate82]

Fukudome 3-years $24m

 

 

This would be an insane amount to pay Fukedome. No way he's worth this much. He's a slap hitting platoon guy.

 

Of course, maybe I'm wrong. I just think it would be crazy.

Fukudome really isn't a slap hitting platoon guy. The salary maybe to high but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets something along those lines. Fukudome would be a nice add as he is a good left handed hitting OF. He may not be a power hitter but he is a player I would like to see the Brewers get as he gets on base rather well and he plays the OF rather good.

[brewmann04]

I think you might be Surprised to see Cory Hart moved to 1st base.

[BrewCrewForever]

Despite Saito's age, I hope they bring him back on another 1 year deal. Getting an above average glove at SS is a MUST. Hope they move Hart to 1B and get better glove in RF who also has a bat.

 

Will be a fun and interesting offseason. Can't wait to see what Mark A, Doug and company have up their sleeves.

[Hate those Rodents]

I for one hope Doug and Mark learn something from Ted Thompson up north of them in Green Bay. That is, patience and believe in your guys, and develop your own AMD let them play. In other words, lets let some of these AAA guys get a shot at major roles next year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I for one hope Doug and Mark learn something from Ted Thompson up north of them in Green Bay. That is, patience and believe in your guys, and develop your own AMD let them play. In other words, lets let some of these AAA guys get a shot at major roles next year.

The NFL and MLB are two very different sports. I think most teams would rather have experienced players playing on a playoff contending team. That's not to say that some young guys can't step in to fill holes, but we won't fill every hole with a rookie. It's just not gonna happen.

[TheCrew07]

I for one hope Doug and Mark learn something from Ted Thompson up north of them in Green Bay. That is, patience and believe in your guys, and develop your own AMD let them play. In other words, lets let some of these AAA guys get a shot at major roles next year.

The NFL and MLB are two very different sports. I think most teams would rather have experienced players playing on a playoff contending team. That's not to say that some young guys can't step in to fill holes, but we won't fill every hole with a rookie. It's just not gonna happen.

Because having veteran players with no experience helped so much this post season? To me this is akin to the "prospects fail" retread argument tossed around constantly on this board. Yes young players are going to have their ups and downs... but young teams have consistently made it to World Series over the last 10 years, something the Brewers haven't done, with much more efficient payrolls I might add.

 

For some reason people seem to have this notion that players are actually "developed" through the minor leagues but that's not what happens in this organization. There have been some nice success stories pitching wise since Lee Tunnel came over, Axford adding 5 mph is a good one, but who was the last good defender the team actually developed? The only good defenders to come through the system were naturals. There simply aren't enough coaches or time to give every player individual instruction on a daily basis, as such the minor leagues in the Brewers system is largely "trial by fire".

 

The reason MLB and the NFL are vastly different is because at least in the Packers' case, their young players get quality instruction on and off the field 4 days during the week. I doubt any single minor leaguer gets 4 days of individual instruction during the season, especially when the teams are on the road. Sam Shields could rise from UDFA athlete to playmaker over the course of the season because of quality coaching on a daily basis, an athletic but raw player like D'Vo isn't afforded that same opportunity. A rather large part of it is the difference in how the leagues operate, but the simple truth is that the minor leagues have always been more about players figuring it out on their own than quality player development. The salaries, food spreads (nutrition), and athletic development leave quite a bit to be desired compared to the other professional leagues.

 

The root cause of this problem of not having enough young players to fill holes is simple, the team hasn't kept the pipeline full. The entirety of the 2nd wave of prospects that could have filled holes was traded in various moves since 2007 with the exception of Gamel. I don't want to rehash every move and the available alternatives at the time, but it the situation didn't have to become as dire pitching wise as it did, and we didn't have to use all our prospects to buy proven MLB players. I realize that's what Melvin does, but that doesn't mean that there isn't another way that could be just as successful, if not have greater sustained success, and be much more economical as well.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm not arguing that point at all, I agree. I'm just simply stating that I don't see Melvin doing it this way. Coming off the season we just had, I would find it hard to believe that he'll just roll with 2 rookies starting in the IF, a rookie in the rotation, multiple rookies in the pen, etc. I just don't see it happening. I think Green will get his shot, but beyond another arm or two I don't see it happening. I would like to see some young guys get shots over crappy veterans such as Kotsay, but it just doesn't seem like the way they wanna run this organization right now while "going for it." Sad, but true.

[PrinceEatMeat]

We obviously have developed plenty of players that were on this team. Braun, Fielder, Hart, Weeks, Gallardo. I just don't see the front office going back into the mode of letting multiple players develop in the big leagues right now. I think they probably should, but they won't. It would likely benefit the team a lot more down the road to throw young guys out there this coming season as opposed to waiting, but I don't see it being done that way. Instead, I'm sure we'll see Kotsay or another worthless veteran backup OF getting a roster spot. And we'll probably sign some veteran pitchers instead of giving younger guys shots at relief jobs. We'll probably also keep McGehee and have him take away AB's from Green, and give up on Gamel and go with someone else at 1B.

[BrewCrewForever]

I do think young guys like Green, Maldonado, Peralta, Fiers and Scarpetta should get shots to be on the 2012 team.

[rwa12]

It may be possible to get a good deal on an aging Carlos Beltran - get him and plunk him down in RF

I can't see the Giants letting him walk easily, after what they gave up for him. We may be able to get him, but not as a bargain.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know people hate Yuni, and they have their reasons for it, but obviously Melvin and Roenicke don't. They had a chance to trade for a SS at the break, and they refused to. You could have had hairston play a little SS, but they didn't do that. Obviously the team doesn't see Betancourt as the big glaring weakness that the fans do, I wouldn't be surprised if he is back next year. A lot of people are talking about Reyes....for the money you'd have to pay that walking injury, you may as well just keep Prince, who at least is durable.

From the All Star break on including the postseason, Betancourt hit .276/.294/.439 with 9 HR and 44 RBI in 294 ABs. They would have been hard pressed to land that production in a trade. The screaming of many fans was due to the echo chamber effect helped in part by some loud media voices. Loud voices shouted about his lack of range before he ever played a game. Fans who otherwise wouldn't be paying attention see a play where he doesn't get to a ball or makes a token effort knowing he won't get to it, and it's "Ah Ha". They totally ignore his good fielding qualities, his perfect feeds to 2B on double play balls, his quick release turning double plays, and his relatively strong arm. This from the same fandom that once had a SS who made 37 error in one season (Jose Valentin).

 

The problem Betancourt has is it's easy to see his shortcomings especially if you are looking for them, his lack of patience at the plate his occasional appearance of lackadaisical effort defensively But it's easy to overlook his attributes too. He will knock in some runs. He's got decent power for the position and he'll generally hit for a decent average. Look his lack of patience is obvious, but where he bats in the lineup, it's also not nearly as big an issue if he batted near the top of the order.

 

Betancourt never has been an All Star caliber player and likely won't be. His lack of patience limits where you can put him in the lineup. So yes, it's worth exploring upgrading there. But if you allow for the fact that the first half of 2011 he was adjusting to a new league, it's reasonable to expect him to hit .270/.290/.400 with 15 HR and 70-75 RBI next year. For that reason, he'll be a starting shortstop somewhere as he has been for the past half dozen seasons. There's some guys out there that are clear upgrades, but not as many as some think.

[Ennder]

Betancourt was above replacement level this year, not sure he can manage that two years in a row though and I really wouldn't want to pay him in hopes that he does.

[rluzinski]

Betancourt is a funnty guy. For a SS, he either does things well or bad. Nothing in between.

 

Good: Power (for a SS), strong arm, catching pop ups over his head.

 

Terrible: Plate discipline (.271 OBP this year!), range (I've never seen a SS so slow!)

 

Add it all up and you have a SS who will never even be close to average, though. I'd he'll play for $1 mil in 2012, he'll start for someone though.

 

"But if you allow for the fact that the first half of 2011 he was adjusting to a new league, it's reasonable to expect him to hit .270/.290/.400"

 

He hasn't done that since he was 25, so I would consider that more of a pipe dream than reasonable. And batters that move from the AL to the NL typically do better (weaker pitching), not worse.

[jhart05]

I think you might be Surprised to see Cory Hart moved to 1st base.

 

I won't be. I've been hoping for this for awhile now.

 

Someone also needs to convince Hart he's not a leadoff hitter and he needs to get over... whatever it is... because they need him to bat somewhere between 3 thru 6.

[B2k1121]

I know people hate Yuni, and they have their reasons for it, but obviously Melvin and Roenicke don't. They had a chance to trade for a SS at the break, and they refused to. You could have had hairston play a little SS, but they didn't do that. Obviously the team doesn't see Betancourt as the big glaring weakness that the fans do, I wouldn't be surprised if he is back next year. A lot of people are talking about Reyes....for the money you'd have to pay that walking injury, you may as well just keep Prince, who at least is durable.

Obviously not the same situation or money, but there were many on here that didn't want to trade for Furcal because of his injury history. Would have possibly been the difference maker if they did. Sometimes you have to roll the dice.

[RockCoCougars]

Pass on Beltran. Pass on Reyes. Both will be overpaid and are major injury concerns.

[monty57]

RE Betancourt: SS is one of the few areas we can hope to upgrade next year to make up for the pain we'll feel in losing Fielder. We have in-house options in Green & Gamel (along with McGehee) to cover 1B/3B. We'll have our LF, 2B, CF, RF, C & all SP back. We probably aren't going to upgrade our bullpen from 2011 to 2012 (at best we can hope for a lateral move). Therefore, we need to upgrade SS. I'm hoping for a major upgrade, but at the very least, we need someone who plays great defense (which will make our already good pitching staff even better), and I'd like someone who can get on base as a leadoff hitter so that Hart, Braun Weeks can man the 3-4-5 holes.

[Hate those Rodents]

Ian Desmond remains a good buy low candidate at SS. Controllable I believe for 4-5 more years. Some here will love the idea and some here will hate the idea. Such is life.

[joepepsi]

And batters that move from the AL to the NL typically do better (weaker pitching), not worse.

I don't think this is intrinsically true. There are worse hitters in the NL since there is no DH, but I doubt see what factors about the NL game mean there is weaker pitching.

[LS Brewer]

2011	.253	8	49	.298
Career	.262	22	126	.304

BA/HR/RBI/OBP:

 

Ian Desmond would be a major downgrade from Yuni B at the plate. He was atrocious this year. Additionally, he has had 57 errors over the last two seasons according to Baseball Reference

[reillymcshane]

From the All Star break on including the postseason, Betancourt hit .276/.294/.439 with 9 HR and 44 RBI in 294 ABs. They would have been hard pressed to land that production in a trade. The screaming of many fans was due to the echo chamber effect helped in part by some loud media voices. Loud voices shouted about his lack of range before he ever played a game. Fans who otherwise wouldn't be paying attention see a play where he doesn't get to a ball or makes a token effort knowing he won't get to it, and it's "Ah Ha". They totally ignore his good fielding qualities, his perfect feeds to 2B on double play balls, his quick release turning double plays, and his relatively strong arm. This from the same fandom that once had a SS who made 37 error in one season (Jose Valentin).

 

The problem Betancourt has is it's easy to see his shortcomings especially if you are looking for them, his lack of patience at the plate his occasional appearance of lackadaisical effort defensively But it's easy to overlook his attributes too. He will knock in some runs. He's got decent power for the position and he'll generally hit for a decent average. Look his lack of patience is obvious, but where he bats in the lineup, it's also not nearly as big an issue if he batted near the top of the order.

 

Betancourt never has been an All Star caliber player and likely won't be. His lack of patience limits where you can put him in the lineup. So yes, it's worth exploring upgrading there. But if you allow for the fact that the first half of 2011 he was adjusting to a new league, it's reasonable to expect him to hit .270/.290/.400 with 15 HR and 70-75 RBI next year. For that reason, he'll be a starting shortstop somewhere as he has been for the past half dozen seasons. There's some guys out there that are clear upgrades, but not as many as some think.

John, your defense of Yuni, especially against the chorus, is admirable, but I think misguided. A good 2nd half hitting doesn't replace the fact that Yuni is an awful shortstop. You may disagree, but I think 9 out of 10 people will concur. And it's not just fans jumping on a 'hate Yuni' bandwagon so they have someone to blame. Watch him - he's bad. He can't move to his right (or won't even try). I can forgive the lackadaisical approach in the field, the muffs of easy grounders, the all-over-the-place throws to first. But his range is brutal. And it's not just my 'eye' that tells me this. Stats (for what they are worth) agree as well. Out of 22 qualifying SS, he had the fourth most errors (not a great way, I feel to judge fielding, but one way to look at them). He had the fourth worst Range Factor and the fourth worst Range Factor. Fangraphs had him as the 3rd worst fielding SS in baseball.

 

As for hitting, he had a great postseason and solid 2nd half - but that doesn't excuse his first half. Or the previous seasons. Yes, he has some pop. Yes, he drove in runs last year, but that doesn't mean he's actually any good at it. He his .211 with runners on base. .237 with runners in scoring position. .143 with bases loaded (only 21 ABs), and .231 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. He simply got RBIs because he had guys on base ahead of him, and he had the chance. Any player with enough chances would do the same thing.

 

Alos, out of 145 players who qualified for the batting title, he had the fewest pitches per plate appearance. He doesn't hit well enough to be this free with his swings. It's selfish. More pitches taken means greater effort on the opposing pitchers - something that helps the team as a whole.

 

I don't think you can expect him to hit .270/.290/.400 next year. He hasn't hit that good since 2008. His stats this year are right inline with the past few years.

 

Finally, at 30, he's not going to get better. He's not suddenly going to develop patience. And he certainly isn't going to suddenly develop range (of course, if he lost some weight and dedicated himself to the game more, that might help).

 

As I said, John, you see a lot more in Yuni that most people don't. Power to you. But I think it's a bad, bad play to keep him. And I think most people agree.

[rwa12]

He'll start somewhere, if his agent is any good, he'll get him a slightly better deal on his playoff performance. I'm with John in that I didn't hate him as much as most. I gave him a chance, and he's certainly not the reason we're out of the World Series. He is what he is, he's not going to change. We got a good half year, and playoff push from him. I think we consider ourselves lucky, and move along. I won't lose my mind if he is there again next year, but I think they should look to upgrade at the position, if one is available. I wouldn't touch Reyes, unless we sign a good enough backup to play the long stretch of games that he'll miss. Many like the idea of the scrappy Counsell types, my problem with that is; by the time they are established as the scrappy veteran, they are more suited to 2B.

[Bombers]

Top items that need addressing:

1. Upgrade SS - Yuni better be gone - The issue with Yuni wasn't his hitting. He was ok for a SS. IMO, it's his lack of range. He has none. Take a look at this grounder up the middle in Game 6 of the NLCS: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19916607 .... 99% of Major League short stops make that play. Yuni is a 10 foot pole away from it. What was he doing? Going to cover 2nd to get the imaginary runner out? This play is a microcosm of my issue with him.

 

2-4. 3B / 1B / RF conundrum - We have Corey Hart, Mat Gamel, Taylor Green, and Casey McGehee - I don't know how this shakes out, but hopefully we get it right. I am all for one position going to Gamel / Green, but to think Melvin is going to insert two rookies into his lineup is semi-ludicrous. I sort of expect Melvin to leave Hart in right, let McGehee and Green battle in spring, and bring in a 1B to at a minimum platoon with Gamel. (This isn't what I want, just what I expect out of Melvin)

 

5. 7th and 8th inning setup guys. We are losing K-Rod, Saito, and Hawkins. Granted the later 2 could be resigned but I would only do 1 year deals.

 

6. Bench guys - Kotsay - Gone, Counsell - Gone, Wilson - Gone, JHJ - please come back ... So we need to find 3 new ones. Gomez & Kottaras will be back.