What to expect in the offseason

[fondybrewfan]

Fielder - Gone

Weeks - Stays

Betancourt - Gone

Hairston - Stays

McGehee - Gone (Non Tendered)

Counsell - Gone

Green - Stays

Lucroy - Stays

Kottaras - Probably Stays

Hart - Traded

Morgan -Stays

Gomez - Stays

Braun - Stays

Kotsay - Gone

 

Gallardo - Stays

Grienke - Stays

Marcum - Stays

Wolf - Stays

Narveson - Who Knows (maybe traded for SS)

Axford - Stays

Saito - Stays

Hawkins - Gone

Krod - Gone

Loe - Gone

Estrada - Stays

[YoGasKpose]

I know folks have talked about this past season as the "all-in" year, and maybe they're right, but I don't think this is back to full scale rebuilding yet. Feels more like a chopped pot to me if we stick with the poker analogy. Of course, I can tend to get carried away sometimes.

 

The Crew has Braun hitting like a star in the lineup for years to come. What better guy to build around? Add to him Axford (a shutdown closer--though I know such things swing up and down in that role) and Gallardo, and you're looking at a solid core of hitting and pitching for the next couple years. There's also Greinke and Marcum rounding out the rotation next year, and though I know the latter took a lot of rightful criticism, hopefully he can still be counted on for some quality regular season numbers.

 

Then there's Luc, a really good catching bat, and Weeks, who produces a lot at second. I would like to see some defensive upgrades in right and at short, but if the Crew can even get a competent first base replacement for Fielder and maybe give Green a shot, I like how 2012 looks from a potential standpoint. DM is going to have some cash to work with, the farm system is being restocked, and the league MVP is in the lineup for the next decade. Yeah, count me in as one who thinks this is a pretty cool time to be a Brewer fan.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

I predict some major moves in the offseason to reshape the roster for a strong 3-5 year window. This means trading some of our veteran players for MLB-ready talent, signing some free agents to be key players on the roster, and plugging in some of the top prospects into the starting lineup.

From the 2011 Roster, here's who I expect to leave or be traded:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fielders[/b]

 

 

• Fielder[/i][/b] – Leaves
• Betancourt[/i][/b] – Released
• McGehee[/i][/b] – Released
• Hart[/i][/b] – Traded
• Morgan[/i][/b] – Traded/Released
• Counsell[/i][/b] – Retires

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pitchers [/b]

 

 

• Wolf/Marcum[/i][/b] – One Traded, Other Stays
• Narveson/Estrada[/i][/b] – One Traded, Other Stays
• Hawkins[/i][/b] – Leaves
• Rodriguez[/i][/b] – Leaves
• Saito[/i][/b] – Leaves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's what I predict for the 2012 Opening 25-Man Roster:

Defensive Lineup

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

• C[/b] – Lucroy
• 1B[/b] – Gamel
• 2B[/b] – Weeks
• SS[/b] – TBD (FA/Trade)[/i]
• 3B[/b] – Green
• RF[/b] – TBD (FA/Trade)[/i]
• CF[/b] – Schafer
• LF[/b] – Braun

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bench

 

 

• C2[/b] – Kottaras
• IF[/b] – Hairston
• IF[/b] – Veteran RH power bat - platoon at 1B[/i]
• OF[/b] – Kotsay
• OF[/b] – Gomez

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rotation

 

 

• SP1[/b] – Gallardo
• SP2[/b] – Greinke (poss. ext.)
• SP3[/b] – Marcum/Wolf
  (whoever is left)[/i]
• SP4[/b] – TBD (FA/Trade)[/i]
• SP5[/b] – Estrada/Narveson
  (whoever is left)[/i]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bullpen

 

 

• BP[/b] – Fiers/Scarpetta
• BP[/b] – Loe
• BP[/b] – Braddock
• BP[/b] – Meadows/LOOGY
• BP[/b] – Veteran Setup Man[/i]
• BP[/b] – Veteran Setup Man[/i]
• CL[/b] – Axford

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fondybrewfan]

I don't think there is anyway that Melvin/RR would gamble on 3 rookies in the starting lineup. One or two maybe; but not 3. I don't think that Melvin is really all that enamored with Green, Schafer, or Gamel. I wouldn't be suprised at all if those guys are either not in the organization next year or they are still in AAA.

[YoungGeezy]

Trade Greinke. He's nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was in 09. His career path looks more like Kevin Millwood than John Schmoltz. He'll likely be a decent innings eater going forward but his days of posting sub 3 ERA's are finished. In fact he'll struggle to get much below 4. He's going to want far more than he's worth. You won't get what the Brewers paid for him but he should be able to bring you a solid young major league ready or near ready arm.

LOL, the tears are pouring down my face right now..... we are using a sub 4 ERA to make a honest ruling about a pitcher. I thought we, who live in a post moneyball, simple statistic world, could look beyond such a silly stat. I thought wrong.

 

Greinke had a sub 3 FIP (2.98) and XFIP(2.56) (both top in our rotation), a WAR of 3.9 (highest in our rotation), 10.54 k/9 (by far top in our rotation) 2.36 BB/9 (Lowest in our rotation), he also had the worse luck on the rotation in BABIP and LOB% both of which were the worse he has had since 2005 and above career average). He did give up to many homeruns and needs to reduce that back to career average but outside of that he was by far our best pitcher this season.

 

-I'd lock up Greinke up with some of the Fielder money. I feel it is important to keep Yo and locked up at the top of the rotation. Wolf, Marcum, and Narvy (despite mid 3 ERA's) are all very expandable after 2012. As for next years rotation stays about the same. If you can clear out Wolf/ Narvy for some value and open up Peralta's spot then do so, if not, oh well. Rotation will be above average again.

 

-Hairston should stay he is very servicable all over the field, plus has a good enough bat.

 

-Counsell, Kotsay, Fielder (as much as I hate to see it), K-Rod, will all be gone forsure IMO

 

-Hawkins/Saito (think one will remain at right price) and Betancourt are very possible to go. Melvin likes Yuni so its tough to say.

 

-Look for them to add at least one old vet OF to compete such as a Kapler, Edmonds, Kotsay, DM does it every year. He likes the older vet leaders off the bench. Who it may be? No clue. Hairston would serve as the usual vet IF, replacing Counsell (Cirrillo, Spivey and the others before them)

 

-Kinzler, Parra, Braddock back to health and compete for jobs.

 

-Nor Braun or Hart move to 1st base. Hart would he a decent move but does seem logical due to his bat and the fact he use to play there but don't see it happening. Gamel will be good defensively there (we was always an excellent fielder just can't throw the ball to save his life when he has time to think.) The question is will you get that awesome minor league hitter who hits for average, extra base hits, and drives in runs or do we get what he have seen in the small sample size? A Casey McGehee and Mat Gamel platoon could also be possible.

 

-OF remains in tact with Braun LF, Morgan & Gomez in CF, Hart in RF with Schafer winning the 5th spot (unless a vet beats him out.) Gindl will get a second year in AAA.

 

-Taylor Green will compete for 3rd base with McGehee but also think they look in FA for one as well. It would be nice to have McGehee to rotate at first with Gamel and with Green at third. Go with the hottest hand.

 

-Maldondo and Kottras compete, Kottras has good value with his lefty power bat behind the plate. So if it is close I could see Martin winning the spot. (Defensively wise to go with Maldonado if his bat can be catcher average)

 

Lineup

1B Gamel

2B Weeks

SS ? FA 3B Green

LF Braun

CF Gomez

RF Hart

C Lucroy

 

Bench

1B/3B McGehee

2B/SS/3B/OF Hairston

OF 4 Morgan

OF 5 Schafer

C Maldondo

 

Pitching

1. Gallardo

2. Greinke

3. Marcum

4. Wolf

5. Peralta

 

Bullpen

LR Estrada or Fiers

MR McClendon/ Kinzler/ De La Cruz/ FA/ Dillard/ Wooten/

MR Parra or Narvy (Lefty Mid)

MR Loe

RHSU Saito

LHSU Braddock

CP Axford

 

Really the team doesn't need to change to much. They retain most and why clean house or go crazy moving people around when what you have minus one bat won 96 games and had you at the door of the World Series. Fielder is irreplacable but as long as we play better D, get consistant and average production out of 1B,3B, SS, we should be fine.

 

FA's

SS Price out Reyes and Rollins if to high don't bother but if it is managable would be nice to pull trigger. We really don't have a SS coming up that is screaming the future so maybe Reyes could be worth the price (doubt it, highly) Rollins will be able to produce well for the next 2-4 years. I don't see him as a mager risk but that depends on price.

 

Realistically Alex Gonzalez, or retaining Betancourt seem more likely. Trading a pitcher of a SS could also happen.

 

1B I think it will be Gamel but Derek Lee would be a nice guy to look at. I have a feeling Cuddyer could be this years Kotsay. Just seems like a DM pick up.

[monty57]

I don't think you'll see a major shake-up. We're coming off a NLCS run, and have most of the starters, including the entire starting rotation, returning. Weeks, Hart and Braun are the nucleus to build the lineup around. Hart playing 1B is an interesting twist, and gets some support in Jordan Schelling's article on the Brewers' site. If Hart is in RF, I think Gamel's at 1B. If Hart moves to 1B, it would be interesting to see if they'd go with Gamel, Schafer or Gindl. I think they'll stick with the Morgan/Gomez platoon one more year.

 

I hope Taylor Green is handed 3B from the get-go, but I'm fine with keeping Casey around. He can play corner IF and be a RH bat off the bench for not too much money (1st year arby). I would also like to keep Hairston, but his play in the playoff (at least at the plate) will probably increase his value around the league. I don't know that he'd come back in a utility role, and I don't want to hand him a starting job when we've got Weeks at 2B and Green playing for league minimum at 3B. If Hairston signs for a reasonable price and is willing to be the RH part of a 3B platoon / utility player, then I'd be happy seeing him signed.

 

It's possible that we shop one of our starting pitchers, but only if Melvin feels one of the prospects is ready to take over a starting role for a playoff caliber team, and he feels we have enough depth at AAA to cover any injuries. I can't see any way they'd go into the season with Narveson/Estrada as their 4/5 combo. Marcum is still a good pitcher... he just hit a wall or had some injury we weren't told about. I'd be thrilled if they could use this bad stretch to sign him to a 2-3 year deal at a discount. I'd guess we'll see the same rotation with guys like Peralta waiting in the wings as AAA insurance when someone gets hurt.

 

Our bullpen will need a facelift, but I expect Melvin to try to retain at least one of Hawkins/Saito. If not, he will certainly sign a FA setup guy. Then, we hope Kintzler (and Parra?) can get healthy and Braddock gets his issues under control.

 

The big move, the one which can keep us as good as this year's team, is going to be what we do at SS. I'd like to see us take a shot at a top-tier SS. Pulling Furcal from St Louis would be great, or making a run at Reyes would be nice. Getting a SS who can play defense is priority #1. Getting one who can also get on base is an added bonus. If we could get a Furcal/Reyes type who could be our leadoff batter, then Hart, Braun, Weeks (in some order) as 3-4-5 looks pretty good with. I kind of like the following:

 

SS - Reyes or Furcal (SH)

CF - Morgan / Gomez (platoon)

2B - Weeks (RH)

LF - Braun (RH)

RF - Hart (RH)

1B - Gamel (LH)

C - Lucroy (RH)

3B - Green (LH)

 

Bench - Hairston (RH utility), McGehee (RH 1B/3B), Morgan/Gomez, veteran LH OF, backup C

 

Prince will be missed, but the lineup above would certainly have more balance than we had this year. Mixed with the same starting pitching with better defense behind them and more depth at AAA, we could be better in 2012 than in 2011.

[Ennder]

I really don't think we are going to just dump McGehee, I expect him to have the inside shot at the job at and at least end up being a RH platoon. I don't know if that is good or bad but it seems realistic given his history. Teams hate giving up on a player after just one bad season because there is at least a 50% chance it was just a fluke.

[YoungGeezy]

I just mentioned it but the more I read, I don't understand why some people seem to want to overhaul a 96 win team. We are losing Fielder (most likely) but that is it. Have our whole rotation back. 4 of 5 IF's, 4 of 4 OF and need a few more people in the pen. I don't get the trade this, this, this, release this, this, this, and move him there or there, or there. Realistically, do any of you really think DM and RR want to completely flip this team when they are already built without Prince as a possible contender? Team has chemistry and an amazing club house, all the guys love each other.....do really want to mess that completely up? I know it worked so well for the Red Soxs and stuff but hey.....

 

McGehee is still cheap, even with arbitration (i think this is his first year). If we go with Gamel and Green well he is that vet corner guy. Don't need to go find someone else. I like a OF of Braun, Gomez/Morgan, Hart with the addition of Schafer. Schafer is good defensively and could be a good bat off the bench. If he comes out and hits the crap out of the ball and is killing it then yeah, then look to move Morgan or Gomez but not until then. Hairston is a great utility guy than needs to be brought back. Betancourt could be replaced in a simple trade for a Narveson or by signing a Gonzalez. Nothing major. With a bat that is extremely hit or miss and defense that is even more hit or miss with zero range....not hard to improve upon. Rotation, they are all locked up through 2012.....keep them. There value is not sky high. Wolf has been around long enough that people know what they'd be getting. He will not net anything major and he does a good enough job in our rotation. Why make us worse? Marcum coming off just a horrible September and October will not have teams pounding down the door to give us Brett Lawrie type players. Once again he is makes our rotation stronger, gives us more depth, why make us worse off? Depth is good, he made that mistake before in 2009 where we destroyed our pitching depth and we paid for it. Dumb mistake. Peralta, Fiers, Rivas, and such have had good numbers but do we really want to put our season on the line dependent on how well they do as rookies? Same goes for Gamel, Green, Schafer.

 

We are still a team that can win.

 

Also a note I have yet to see but Rogers needs to be moved to the pen. Let the kid go out & throw smoke for an inning a night. We have known since he was drafted he has a closers arm. Injuries have killed but he still has ton of talent. They said Braddock needed to be in pen because of his injuries and etc why is Rogers different? Move him to the pen and let him earn a job. He still has sick stuff. If they do this and I really like the possiblity of a Rogers/Braddock 8th and Axford 9th.

[Invader3K]

I really don't think we are going to just dump McGehee, I expect him to have the inside shot at the job at and at least end up being a RH platoon. I don't know if that is good or bad but it seems realistic given his history. Teams hate giving up on a player after just one bad season because there is at least a 50% chance it was just a fluke.

I agree. As I said in another thread, I think he'll be given a chance to win his job in spring training. It's not like he'll be eating up a lot of salary or is an aging player.

[YoungGeezy]

Agree with Monty and Ennder, didn't see your guys post while I was writing my last one. However I'd look at Rollins over Reyes due to the fact that we mid as well sign Fielder for the money we'd have to give Jose. I have heard 7 years 140 to 150 million for him. Rollins is has enouhg in the tank to last a 3-4 year deal and provide great value at a much better cost. Not going to lie though, our line-up with Reyes would look VERY nice.

[monty57]

Agree with Monty and Ennder, didn't see your guys post while I was writing my last one. However I'd look at Rollins over Reyes due to the fact that we mid as well sign Fielder for the money we'd have to give Jose. I have heard 7 years 140 to 150 million for him. Rollins is has enouhg in the tank to last a 3-4 year deal and provide great value at a much better cost. Not going to lie though, our line-up with Reyes would look VERY nice.

 

Yeah, Reyes will probably get a big payday based on his huge contract year play. He might be a pipe-dream, but I'd like to see us shoot for a good SS, whether through FA or trade. Furcal, Reyes and Rollins are the top three FA candidates, and I'd be happy to have any of them, as they'd greatly imporve our defense and allow us to have a true leadoff hitter, with Hart and Weeks in the middle of the lineup with Braun. If we settle for Betancourt, we will have taken a huge step backwards from 2011 to 2012.

[SconnieKid]

Reyes has had one great year. He is going to be paid silly amounts of money. And he is even injury prone. No, I don't like that idea.

 

The Brewers had a Pythag of 90 wins and are losing ~5-6WAR with Prince. That makes the Brewers a 85 win team without tinkering. And that was with a really healthy rotation. I think they are going to need to spend some of that Prince money. The dropoff the following year is going to be more precipitous. I think they need to make a splash this year.

 

The notion that all these rookies are going to pop in the lineup and succeed when they have all struggled to this point is problematic. Getting a RF/1B that can hit shouldn't be too hard.

[jeffy]

I don't think you'll see a major shake-up. We're coming off a NLCS run, and have most of the starters, including the entire starting rotation, returning.

 

I just mentioned it but the more I read, I don't understand why some people seem to want to overhaul a 96 win team.

 

 

Yes, this team just won more games than any Brewer team ever, won 5 post-season games and came within a couple wins of making it to the World Series. I don't think the team will be considered to be a failure that needs to be blown up.

 

They are going to lose Fielder, some bullpen pitchers, and some utility players. I don't expect them to do much more than fill in those holes, maybe offset some of the offense they lose with some better defense at SS, and have McGehee compete with Green for 3b.

[B2k1121]

I think the Brewers are going to be, at worst, somewhat competitive every year with Attanasio running the show. I'm really hoping they make a run at Reyes with Rollins as the fall back. Mark A is going to want to make a splash after losing Fielder, hopefully he they don't try to 'upgrade' first base.

[nate82]

The thing about Reyes and Rollins is that there are not that many teams looking for a SS this coming off season. This may drive their price down as I don't see the Red Sox or the Yankees looking for an upgrade at SS they will be looking at pitching instead. That leaves the two big teams out. Teams that will be looking for a SS this off season are the Cardinals, Brewers, Mariners, Phillies, and the Mets. The Mets could go with an internal option here with Tejada and I fully expect the Phillies to resign Rollins as they are the only team that will give him a 5-year deal that he is looking for. I actually expect the Cardinals to resign Furcal which I believe is going to be a mistake. That leaves the Brewers, Mariners, and possibly the Mets for Reyes. If the Mets don't like Reyes price they could drop out and go with Tejada at SS. Jack Z maybe gun shy with another highly hyped free agent like Figgins again. The Brewers are not going to offer a contract bigger than what they offered Fielder previously to Reyes. The Mariners may end up with Reyes but I am not sure Jack Z is going to go with another big free agent and possibly fall off a cliff like Figgins did again. Should be interesting to see where Reyes lands.

What I would like seen done:

Trades:

Marcum and Hart to the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts, Lars Anderson, and Felix Doubront

Gamel to the White Sox for Eduardo Escobar

McGehee to the Phillies for Matt Rizzotti

Resigning:

Hairston

Saito

FA:

Broxton 1-year $2.5m

Fukudome 3-years $24m

Scutaro 1-year $1.5m

2012 lineup

Morgan/Gomez CF

Hairston 3B

Weeks 2B

Braun LF

Fukudome RF

Anderson/Rizzotti 1B

Lucroy C

Escobar SS

P

Bench: Green, Rizzotti/Anderson, Scutaro, Gomez/Morgan, Kottaras

Rotation: Greinke, Gallardo, Wolf, Narveson, Fiers

Bullpen: Axford, Saito, Loe, Braddock, Broxton, Doubront, Rivas

[brewtown82]

OK, so we sign Jose Reyes, move Hart to 1st, let Prince walk, start Taylor Green at 3rd, sign an outfielder with a bat, play Gomez at centerfield, and we should be set. Oh, and sign another starter #3 starter and a late-inning reliever.

[FVBrewerFan]

Depends what the goal is. Sure, the line-up doesn't need to be overhauled to get back to 90+wins. Neither does the rotation. But that's not taking a step foward. It's getting back to where we were at best. Could even be worse if we're counting on the likes of Gamel and Green, who are somehwat unknown quantities.

 

But even at that, fine, replace Fielder with someone who ccan get you a .780ish OPS and the world won't end. The problem is the rotation. We can keep that the same and expect different results? Isn't that the definition of insanity? Or will Marcum and Greinke somehow perform much better in the post-season? There are no magic answers, but the solution for making a deeper run always lies with the rotation. So the way I see it, they can keep it the same and still be competitive. Or, improve the rotation somehow if a WS title is really the goal.

[Invader3K]

Peralta and Fiers can both possibly be factors next season. Melvin has some interesting options to be considering.

[DougJones43]

Peralta and Fiers can both possibly be factors next season. Melvin has some interesting options to be considering.

I'm somewhat fearful that as long as Melvin and company are in "win now" mode, they won't allow any rookies to play a meaningful role on the team.

[nate82]

Peralta and Fiers can both possibly be factors next season. Melvin has some interesting options to be considering.

I'm somewhat fearful that as long as Melvin and company are in "win now" mode, they won't allow any rookies to play a meaningful role on the team.

Peralta won't be in the rotation unless there are multiple injuries or trades in the off season. Fiers though will probably get a shot at the #5 against Narveson. Narveson may actually be the one who gets traded this off season. Melvin and company will use a rookie in the "win now" mode they just didn't have one that was as good as Fiers or Peralta and no Green is not that type of a player. The #5 spot can be argued as not playing a meaningful role on the team later on in the season. Wurley was the Phillies 3rd best pitcher this year yet he was taken out of the rotation for the playoffs. Fiers and Peralta would get the same treatment if they were in the rotation and the Brewers made the playoffs.

[paul253]

Peralta won't be in the rotation unless there are multiple injuries or trades in the off season

 

Remember though the 5th starters spot was Peralta's to lose, which of course he did, when Greinke was hurt. But he had a huge year in the minors after that and pitched against a lot better competition then he did in 2010. I would have to think that unless he wilts under pressure he has to be the first candidate for the 5th starter spot if there is a trade.

 

I still think you need to trade Marcum. I never really wanted to, but he just looked so pedestrian the past few starts. He looked like he was throwing everything he could think of and nothing worked.

[Ennder]

We can keep that the same and expect different results? Isn't that the definition of insanity? Or will Marcum and Greinke somehow perform much better in the post-season?

 

Having watched baseball heavily for 30 years now I can say without a doubt, yes we can expect different results. Judging a player over a single season is dangerous, worrying about what they did over 3 starts is just silly. Teams that flip out and make big changes to the roster just because of playoff results tend to not fare very well the next season because they are going about the process completely the wrong way. There is no magic formula for winning the playoffs, get the right guys hot at the right time, stay healthy, maybe favor your bullpen a little extra.

[reillymcshane]

Fukudome 3-years $24m

 

 

This would be an insane amount to pay Fukedome. No way he's worth this much. He's a slap hitting platoon guy.

 

Of course, maybe I'm wrong. I just think it would be crazy.

[logan82]

Sure, the line-up doesn't need to be overhauled to get back to 90+wins. Neither does the rotation. But that's not taking a step foward. It's getting back to where we were at best. Could even be worse if we're counting on the likes of Gamel and Green, who are somehwat unknown quantities.

 

I am not sure the Brewers would get back to 90+ wins with the exact same team. The pitching health for one thing probably contributed to at least a few wins more than expected.

[thablingster]

I'm starting to wonder which aging veteran outfielder we will sign as has been the trend the past few years (Kotsay, Edmonds, Cat, Kapler, etc.).

 

He probably will have played CF but not be able to anymore (yet they'll put him there anyway), preferably left handed, 30+. And go.