What to expect in the offseason

[chadomac]

I didn't think there was any chance whatsoever we would sign Jose Reyes, but I'm hearing so much hype about it I'm actually starting to buy into it. If the money/years don't get totally out of hand, maybe it's possible?

[GamelToe]

As a fan, I see myself getting psyched up for Jose Reyes. But as a realist, it just seems like a bad move. As he gets older, he's going to get demonstrably worse. But, with that being said, I don't think he's Carl Crawford 2.0.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Sounds like the Marlins wanna make a splash. They are talking to Reyes, and are also planning to go after Fielder or Pujols now.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd seen a few rumors earlier this offseason that the Marlins might be big spenders this offseason to help open the new stadium. Should be an interesting offseason.

[monty57]

Sounds like the Marlins wanna make a splash. They are talking to Reyes, and are also planning to go after Fielder or Pujols now.

 

Please tell me that Fielder is a higher ranked FA than Reyes. We lost out on a first rounder with Sabathia because of Teixeira. It would really hurt to end up with a third rounder for Fielder if the Marlins signed him & Reyes (they can't lose a 1st rounder due to their 72-90 season).

 

Note: I also see the Marlins are talking to Buehrle.

[Raw Biz]

Sounds like the Marlins wanna make a splash. They are talking to Reyes, and are also planning to go after Fielder or Pujols now.

 

Please tell me that Fielder is a higher ranked FA than Reyes. We lost out on a first rounder with Sabathia because of Teixeira. It would really hurt to end up with a third rounder for Fielder if the Marlins signed him & Reyes (they can't lose a 1st rounder due to their 72-90 season).

 

Note: I also see the Marlins are talking to Buehrle.

Pujols is the only one ranked higher than Prince. Even guys like Willingham, Ramon Hernandez, Capps, Kelly Johnson, and Darren Oliver are rated higher than Reyes. Might have something to do with the games he's missed over the past 3 years.

Edit: After looking at the rankings on MLBTR, I think they messed up and put Reyes below all those guys when his actual number is higher than Johnson, Capps, and Oliver. But still interesting that Willingham, Hernandez, and even Cuddyer are ranked higher.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Oh, wow. Ouch. That has to sting for the Mets.

[reillymcshane]

The following is what I expect to happen this off season. Please note it's not necessarily what I want to happen - just what I expect.

 

1. Kick the tires on Jose Reyes and find him too expensive.

2. Sign or trade for a veteran SS. Barmes is one example. Perhaps acquire Brendan Ryan. That sort of thing. Nothing that will cost the team a lot.

3. Sign 2 or 3 veteran relievers to one or two year deals. Hawkins and Saito are possibilities. I won't be shocked if Doug goes after a players like Broxton or Lidge. I think Doug loved the '2nd closer' idea after he got K-Rod, and will try and replicate it. Kerry Wood would fit as well, but he might not want to play outside of Chicago. Matt Capps is another guy that Doug might go after.

4. He'll keep Kottaras but wait to see if Maldanado is ready, and go with the latter if he shows the ability to handle big league pitching.

5. Resign Hairston - 2 year deal

6. Keep Gomez and Nyjer as a CF platoon.

7. Probably keep Gindl or Schafer as a 5th OF, but perhaps bring in a veteran like Kotsay. But I'll predict the former.

8. Will look into bringing in Carlos Pena for cheap, but won't go to high. No more than $5 million. After that, he'll maybe talk to Derrick Lee. Won't bring it either unless they are bargains. Both, however, won't want to come to Milwaukee because they won't be promised the job, and someone else will pay them more.

9. Will end up with a low level RH backup 1B type to platoon with Gamel or Pena. Not sure who this will be.

10. Decide to cut Casey McGehee. Won't want to be on the hook for the $3 million salary.

11. Go with Green at 3B.

12. Prep Parra to be the LH specialist in the bullpen

 

In the end, Dougie will hold onto the big money. He'll spend on his bullpen, and try to bring in a veteran right handed bat to keep Gamel honest. It will be, to be all honest, very unexciting. He'll then look to shore things up in spring training, like he did with Nyjer, since he'll have room in his budget to take on some salary.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I still think they push for Reyes. Prince is such a long shot I don't even feel like discussing it over and over again. Now that Mark and Doug tasted success, I don't expect them to sit back and hope the young guys pan out. I'm all for giving Gamel at shot at 1st and Green the job at 3rd, but they need to replace Prince's bat somewhat.

 

Sure, Reyes is risky, but that's the only reason we could afford him in the first place. We have nothing in the majors at SS, nor do we have anything in the minors close to contributing. Signing a guy like Barmes and hoping for the best with your young guys is asking for trouble. So many things would have to go right for that team to win 90 games. Unfortunately, that's probably what happens, but I'll just dream we get Reyes.

[monty57]

10. Decide to cut Casey McGehee. Won't want to be on the hook for the $3 million salary.

 

I expect he'll trade McGehee for a prospect. We'll read about the "high ceiling young prospect" we got, and in 3-4 years, I'll read through Brewerfan's Power 50 and wonder where #48 came from and someone will remind me that he was the guy we traded McGehee for.

 

All-in-all, good rundown Reilly. Pretty much what I expect, but after last season, I'm preparing for something completely unexpected to happen.

[Invader3K]

Now that Mark and Doug tasted success, I don't expect them to sit back and hope the young guys pan out. I'm all for giving Gamel at shot at 1st and Green the job at 3rd, but they need to replace Prince's bat somewhat.

This is exactly how I feel. People sometimes keep talking like our team is still owned by the Seligs. Attanasio wants to win, and badly. He is going to give Melvin the green light to be aggressive if the right signings or trades come up. Also, making a few mediocre moves and not doing anything to remotely replace Prince's production would send a horrible message to the fan base that has been so supportive. I think they know they made mistakes by not doing more after Sabathia and Sheets left in the '08 off-season. They aren't going to make those same mistakes again.

[Roderick]

4. He'll keep Kottaras but wait to see if Maldanado is ready, and go with the latter if he shows the ability to handle big league pitching.

I know the difference is "only" $400K, but ideally they make their decision on Kottaras before they arby settle at ~ $800K.

[monty57]

Now that Mark and Doug tasted success, I don't expect them to sit back and hope the young guys pan out. I'm all for giving Gamel at shot at 1st and Green the job at 3rd, but they need to replace Prince's bat somewhat.

This is exactly how I feel. People sometimes keep talking like our team is still owned by the Seligs. Attanasio wants to win, and badly. He is going to give Melvin the green light to be aggressive if the right signings or trades come up. Also, making a few mediocre moves and not doing anything to remotely replace Prince's production would send a horrible message to the fan base that has been so supportive. I think they know they made mistakes by not doing more after Sabathia and Sheets left in the '08 off-season. They aren't going to make those same mistakes again.

But Attanasio is also a finance guy, who realizes that we have Braun, Gallardo and Weeks taking up a lot of the team's payroll over the next few seasons. I posted in the "transactions" forum that it is probably possible to sign Reyes and extend Greinke, but it would be very tight, and we would absolutely need to bring in rookies every year to keep the payroll down. If we sign Reyes and don't extend Greinke or Marcum, we'll lose 3/5 of our starting rotation after next year. We haven't had success bringing in FA SP, and a rotation of Gallardo, Narveson and three rookies from our system doesn't really thrill me. We would then look like our teams of 2009 & 2010, only with Reyes instead of Fielder.

 

If we are willing to start Gamel & Green in 2012, then trade Hart after 2012 and go with one of our rookie OF along with some rookie pitching, then it's probably doable to sign Reyes and extend Greinke, which could help make us decent for a while. There would of course be risks in relying on prospects to produce, but it's really the only way we can exist going forward unless we trade one of our core (Braun, Weeks, Gallardo). We can't just keep signing veteran FAs to block our prospects... we don't have that kind of money.

 

If we don't sign Reyes, and instead go with someone like Barmes on a 1-2 year deal, we could probably extend Greinke, be a playoff contender next year, and have money in 2013 and beyond (which would go to Reyes) to upgrade at other positions as needed. I honestly don't know what the best route would be. I like the concept of having Reyes as a SS/leadoff hitter, but I dislike the thought of having most of our payroll tied up long-term in 4 or 5 players, so we have no payroll flexibility and are very reliant on all of our prospects panning out.

 

[YoungGeezy]

I think a lot of it has to do with who we get to play SS on whether we stick with Gamel & Green. My confindence in our offense going into the season with Gamel, Green, and SS Barmes/Furcal is not very high. We have zero clue how Gamel & Green will perform and we know Barmes will hit .245/.305/.700 (or less). that is a lot of pressure to perform for Mat and Taylor. However we get Reyes, then Gamel and Green will have far less pressure on them.

 

SS Reyes

CF Gomez/Morgan/Schaefer (however it unfolds)

2B Weeks

LF Braun

RF Hart

1B Gamel/ McGehee( Rotates as back up 1B and 3B)

3B Green/ McGehee

C Lucroy

P Pitcher

 

That would get me really excited

 

RF Hart

CF Gomez, Morgen, Schaefer

2B Weeks

LF Braun

1B Gamel

3B Green

SS Barmes

C Lucroy

 

Not so much.

 

As much as I want Gamel Green starting, I think if they cannot bring in a good hitting SS it will be harder to not bring in someone like A. Ramirez at 3rd or make a trade for a hot corner player

[TooLiveBrew]

MLBTR did a piece on the Brewers - http://www.mlbtraderumors...k-milwaukee-brewers.html

 

Nothing earth-shattering, but nice to get the attention.

[reillymcshane]

4. He'll keep Kottaras but wait to see if Maldanado is ready, and go with the latter if he shows the ability to handle big league pitching.

I know the difference is "only" $400K, but ideally they make their decision on Kottaras before they arby settle at ~ $800K.

i don't think money will be the big deal with kottaras, but instead the desire to have a better defensive catcher - which Maldanado is. I think they'll take them both to spring training and see how Maldanado works out. If they feel he's ready with the bat - they'll trade kottaras. Someone would probably want him. Butif Maldanado needs more time, you go with George.

[reillymcshane]

10. Decide to cut Casey McGehee. Won't want to be on the hook for the $3 million salary.

 

I expect he'll trade McGehee for a prospect. We'll read about the "high ceiling young prospect" we got, and in 3-4 years, I'll read through Brewerfan's Power 50 and wonder where #48 came from and someone will remind me that he was the guy we traded McGehee for.

yeah, i should have said trade mcgehee - or cut him if no takers. If we can trade him, it won't be for much. If we don't want the guy, no one else is bound to give up much for him. And remember, if someone trades for him, they take on his salary - which could reach up toward $3 million. I don't know if anyone would want that.

[Roderick]

I know the difference is "only" $400K, but ideally they make their decision on Kottaras before they arby settle at ~ $800K.

see how Maldanado works out. If they feel he's ready with the bat - they'll trade kottaras. Someone would probably want him.

Didn't the Brewers expose him for free this last season while he was at minimum wage and no team took him? This year he will be first-year-arby priced if the Brewers accept that.

[reillymcshane]

I know the difference is "only" $400K, but ideally they make their decision on Kottaras before they arby settle at ~ $800K.

see how Maldanado works out. If they feel he's ready with the bat - they'll trade kottaras. Someone would probably want him.

Didn't the Brewers expose him for free this last season while he was at minimum wage and no team took him? This year he will be first-year-arby priced if the Brewers accept that.

Now that you mention it, that is probably correct. You can alway send kottaras to AAA if no one wants him. he's good insurance. or make the move now. i guess the team has to decide where they want to go.

[PrinceEatMeat]

FWIW, Melvin had lunch with Paul Kinzer today in Milwaukee. Kinzer is the agent for free agents Rafael Furcal and Aramis Ramirez. Very interesting.

[jmeks23]

I probably wouldn't mind having both of those guys, considering their pay per year would end up being close to what Reyes would get alone. It hinders Taylor Green's progress however, but he could still be a bench player, and fill in for Ramirez if needed. It is indeed interesting though.

 

As far as what Geezy said about the lineup, I personally don't think that Morgan or Gomez should be batting 2nd next year. It worked this year, but both players are not very patient (Gomez isn't at all) and their speed goes to waste in front of Braun. Plus, neither are really RBI guys for Reyes (if he's who they get). I'd prefer one of Gamel or Green getting AB's in front of Braun. Possibly even Hart, but it might hurt the bottom of your lineup then.

 

Preferred lineup:

 

Reyes

Green

Braun

Weeks

Hart

Gamel

Morgan

Lucroy

 

Obviously, if they find a replacement 1B or 3B it changes, or if Gamel/Green are struggling mightily, but overall it's not a bad lineup. You still have power threats throughout the lineup, and Reyes, Braun, Weeks, and probably Gamel are all good OBP guys.

 

Backup Plan:

 

Morgan

Green

Braun

Weeks

Hart

Gamel

Barmes/Furcal

Lucroy

 

Not as bad as you'd think, considering Morgan is a good spark plug as well, but not nearly as potent as with Reyes. I still like Braun batting 3rd because your best hitter should get as many AB's as possible. That's why Pujols, Votto, etc. bat 3rd still as well.

 

 

I still predict there will be at least one influential trade this offseason made by the Brewers, to go along with some FA moves (whether big or small). That will make the lineup clearer obviously.

[monty57]

Interesting thought to bat Green second, but my guess is that if they don't get a leadoff-type hitter as SS, we'll see Weeks or Hart leading off with Morgan batting second. I'd guess it'd be Weeks, Morgan, Braun, Hart, Gamel/Green, Lucroy/SS, Gamel/Green, Lucroy/SS.

 

Ideally, we'd get a leadoff hitter, allowing Weeks, Braun and Hart to hit in the middle of the lineup. I hope that they at least kick the tires on Furcal. He's a great defender and has been a leadoff hitter for his career, although his hitting has been pretty bad lately. Plus, St Louis wants him back, so we'd send them scrambling for a plan B if we signed Furcal.

[The Truth]

Weeks seems like a stronger candidate to bat clean-up, to me, than Hart

[monty57]

Weeks seems like a stronger candidate to bat clean-up, to me, than Hart

 

Although their numbers have gotten pretty similar, historically Weeks has been better at getting on base than Hart, while Hart has been more of a slugger. I was pretty low on Hart a couple of years ago, but I think he's pretty underrated these days. Remember that he missed a month this year and still hit 26 HR and has learned how to get on base. Either way, Weeks and Hart are pretty interchangeable in the batting order, whether deciding who will bat leadoff, or if they're in the 3-4-5 spots with Braun. I hold onto hope that they'll find a SS who can bat leadoff, allowing Weeks, Braun and Hart to bat in the middle of the order. I'm less concerned who is 3, 4, and 5 than I am that those three players fill those spots.

[nate82]

I would rather have Braun bat 4th as he is a less patient hitter than either Hart or Weeks. Ideally I would like to have Weeks bat 3rd and Braun bat 4th.