When the smoke clears...

[monty57]

I guess I'd rather skimp on a 4th starter than 2-3 spots in the starting lineup/bullpen.

 

We already have our 2B, LF, RF, CF, C locked up, and have in-house options for 1B & 3B. If the team is comfortable with some combination of Gamel, Green & McGehee at 1B/3B, then we really only have to look at SS and the bullpen spots being vacated by Saito, K-Rod and Hawkins. While we will certainly make some moves in the bullpen, a healthy SP will pitch as many innings as all three of those RPs. We also should have some in-house help for some of the bullpen openings. I'd guess we'll look at someone like Barmes at SS, and we'll get 1-2 veteran arms for the pen. Without any insider knowledge into the Brewers finances, I would think we could make these moves without having to trade away salary.

 

Now, if we want to go after Reyes, or if we aren't comfortable with Gamel & Green and decide we need to sign a veteran 1B/3B, then we may need to trade away one of our starters (or someone like Hart) to free up cash.

[JohnBriggs12]

I guess I'd rather skimp on a 4th starter than 2-3 spots in the starting lineup/bullpen.

 

We already have our 2B, LF, RF, CF, C locked up, and have in-house options for 1B & 3B. If the team is comfortable with some combination of Gamel, Green & McGehee at 1B/3B, then we really only have to look at SS and the bullpen spots being vacated by Saito, K-Rod and Hawkins. While we will certainly make some moves in the bullpen, a healthy SP will pitch as many innings as all three of those RPs. We also should have some in-house help for some of the bullpen openings. I'd guess we'll look at someone like Barmes at SS, and we'll get 1-2 veteran arms for the pen. Without any insider knowledge into the Brewers finances, I would think we could make these moves without having to trade away salary.

 

Now, if we want to go after Reyes, or if we aren't comfortable with Gamel & Green and decide we need to sign a veteran 1B/3B, then we may need to trade away one of our starters (or someone like Hart) to free up cash.

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs?

 

Their only chance is a serious upgrade somewhere (like Reyes) or to pay Fielder and get much better value out of their rotation in order to pay for the upgrade.

[BrewersAA]

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs?

 

Their only chance is a serious upgrade somewhere (like Reyes) or to pay Fielder and get much better value out of their rotation in order to pay for the upgrade.

This is all i have thought about for the past week plus. I think the brewers need to make a serious push for Reyes and let Fielder walk. That switch alone would make this team a playoff contender again. With Reyes at short our line-up would be more balanced and our pitcher would look every better. I have also thought about how we would not be able to afford him... so i propose trading randy wolf this off-season. his value will never be higher coming off this season and his salary is 12mil. and the brewers have some arms that need to get a shot. the top of the rotation being grienke, gallardo, marcum should be strong enough. Then if you insert peralta and he performs well the crew is in really good shape and they have a chance to add an impact prospect for wolf, not a superstar, but an impact guy. And then the rest of the team is set.

1b. is a hart gamel platoon

Rf. is a hart gindl platoon

3b is a green mcgehee platoon.

I am not sure how comfortable people would be with this but i think that Hart full time at first would be a GREAT idea. Hart would/should be a huge defensive upgrade to fielder. We've all seen how successful tall athletic guys are at first. his power would be adequate for the position as well. An infield of Green, Reyes, Weeks, Hart would/should be above average hitting and probably defensively as well. that would do a lot for this team. then all we need is a RF, which come cheaper than 1b's. Gindl, Gamel, Gomez, Morgan, Schafer all come to mind.

[Oldcity]

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs?

 

Their only chance is a serious upgrade somewhere (like Reyes) or to pay Fielder and get much better value out of their rotation in order to pay for the upgrade.

If Gamel and Green have very solid seasons, it will be a wash with this year where Fielder had an amazing season and McGehee had an amazingly terrible season. Plus it would be a huge upgrade on defense. The ERA was sixth in the NL because the defense was so bad. They were third in xFIP, a much more reliable stat.

 

If you want to fix the ERA, fixing the defense is a great way to do that.

[logan82]

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs?

 

I think you are seriously overestimating Fielder and underestimating just how poor the production was at 3B and SS even compared to average this year. If anything our biggest loss will be the pen. Fielder is a good hitter but a poor fielder who really doesn't help out the other infielders with his play at 1B.

[FoxyFoxes]

I can't believe I am going to do this but I am going to type a "fantasy" Brewer lineup without Prince Fielder...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

Reyes SS

Morgan CF

Weeks 2b

Braun LF

Gamel 1B

Hart RF

Green 3b

Lucroy C

Depending on the killer G's......this lineup could really out produce last year. I would platoon Morgan and Gomez and put Gomez in the 8 spot when he plays. I would soft platoon Casey and GAmel or Casey and Green if Casey starts hitting again. Pray like hell Reyes and Weeks are able to stay healthy and this team makes the playoffs with a pitching roster like this:

Gallardo

Greinke

Marcum

Wolf ( I wouldn't trade him unless ABSOLUTELY necessary to sign Reyes) If he is traded I go with Fiers

Narveson

BP: Estrada Braddock Fiers Kintzler McClendon, Hawkins, Saito, Axford (One won't make it) Braddock is key to bounce back. Damn does KROD make this bullpen look better...sigh.

Bench: Kottaras (for Wolfy), gomez, hairston, mcghee, schafer/kotsay

[logan82]

Was McGehee really good at going the opposite way or was he just to slow to catch up with pitches and this year his skills faded just a bit more?

[RockCoCougars]

Was McGehee really good at going the opposite way or was he just to slow to catch up with pitches and this year his skills faded just a bit more?

I think the book was just out on him this year- namely, throw him low and outside junk or eye high stuff the first few pitches, and then freeze him on something right down the pipe for strike three. I'd be willing to take a chance on a rebound next season if the arby number isn't too much higher than a million. He seemed to go on the Ronnie Belliard diet last season as well, perhaps an off-season of conditioning would help him bounce back a bit.

[logan82]

How wouldn't the book already be out in him last year then? I don't think it takes 1 1/2 years to adjust or find a player's weakness.

[RockCoCougars]

How wouldn't the book already be out in him last year then? I don't think it takes 1 1/2 years to adjust or find a player's weakness.

Point taken, but it took the league a few years to figure out Billy Hall as well. Hart looked pretty brutal for most of '09 as well when he couldn't lay off a slider to save his life. It seems when some of these guys have success, they turn into guess hitters or something.

[MNBrew]

I hate the prospect of losing Prince, but as noted above, we have in-house options to replace him (Gamel, McGehee). We also have in-house options at 3B (McGehee, Green).

 

I agree w/ whomever said it above: SS & the bullpen are the biggest areas that need taking care of. To that end, I do drool at the positive impact Reyes could have to the point that I wonder if Mark A. would fork out the dough to make it happen.

 

- Reyes' defense at SS, along w/ Gamel at 1B, would help the whole IF defense and balance out the questions raised about McGehee's limited range at 3B.

- Reyes' offense as a prototypical All-Star leadoff hitter would stand to have a huge impact on the whole lineup.

 

His price tag will be HUGE, but the more I think about it, the more I think that's the signing the Brewers have to make every effort to make.

[The Truth]

Why pay an injury prone SS that kind of money when you could just give it to Prince, a guy who plays 162 games a year? Unless you think Prince will end up getting alot more $$$ than Reyes. Maybe, but I'm not completely convinced of that

[BrewersAA]

Why pay an injury prone SS that kind of money when you could just give it to Prince, a guy who plays 162 games a year? Unless you think Prince will end up getting alot more $$$ than Reyes. Maybe, but I'm not completely convinced of that

When i think about "why pay that kind of money when you could just give it to prince." I come back to two arguments with myself. 1. I over value prince because he is a brewer and i love him as a player, with that in mind i think reyes has a bigger impact on this team at a position that generally does not produce an offensive talent. 2. The drop-off between prince and the alternative is, in my opinion, much smaller than the drop-off between reyes and the alternative. Take this example:

 

Take 20pts and 3 homers away from Gamels AAA season and you have what i think the optimist thinks he can do with regular time in the bigs and what would be considered a really good season from him. that would be a .290/25/100 season. Now with much better defense (I saw him play this year) and a FAR better base runner (nobody seems to consider this) its very comparable to prince at .299/38/120 and very cheap.

 

now look at reyes compared to betancourt. reyes last season had this in only 126 games. .337/7/44 plus 16 triples 31 doubles 39 steals and more walks than strike outs and he plays great defense. betancourt had one of his best ever seasons, and i think i dont need to really give his numbers, we all know how bad he is. .252/13/68 but only a .271 obp!!! terrible defense, 4 stolen bases and 4 caught stealing, he struck out 4 times as often as he walked, and in 25 more games had 4 less doubles.

 

so looking at that, thats why i think the brewers should go reyes way, mainly because the gap between him and the alternative is much bigger than between prince and the alternative.

[BrewersAA]

Let me also say that i realize that chance of getting either guy is EXTREMELY slim, but i know i post as if the brewers have their choice.Im simply saying what i believe that should do to win and reyes would be a winning move for the franchise.

[monty57]

so looking at that, thats why i think the brewers should go reyes way, mainly because the gap between him and the alternative is much bigger than between prince and the alternative.

 

In Economics, we'd call that excess marginal return, and I think that's the best way to look at it. I know there's risk in playing Gamel and Green, but there's risk in everything. I believe they will be able to be productive MLB players. A combo of Gamel/Green/McGehee/Hairston should provide decent production out of the corner IF spots. Fielder will be a big loss, but it should be pretty easy to outperform McGehee's 2011 numbers.

 

Combined numbers of McGehee, Yuni and Fielder average out to a .259 avg / .327 OBP / .433 SLG / .759 OPS with horrible defense. Giving 1,184 PAs to players as bad as Yuni and McGehee essentially negated the MVP-caliber performance Fielder posted. To relate 2012 vs 2011, the questions would be whether a combination of Gamel, Green and a new SS could average out to those numbers, how much added value we would receive by having much better defense, and whether the offense is better with one Hall of Famer and two black holes, or with three good players.

 

I think they could match, and probably beat those numbers. If Green & Gamel can average an .800 OPS (they were at .997 and .912 in AAA this year), then the SS would only need to average a .677 OPS to average out to the combined .759 OPS we got this year. Barmes is a career .703 OPS SS while Reyes is a career .782 OPS SS.

 

I think the defense would be a huge upgrade, and would allow our pitching staff to be even better. Stevo mentioned that we were 6th in ERA, but 3rd in xFIP, so a good (or better) defense should do wonders for our staff.

 

I think total runs may be similar with Fielder and the black holes, but I think we would be more consistant with three good players, as we wouldn't be as dependant on Fielder's hot and cold streaks. With good pitching and improved defense, I'd rather have a more consistant offense.

 

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team.

 

I don't believe that simply losing Fielder, Yuni and McGehee and replacing them with Gamel, Green and a FA SS (like Barmes) with everything else remaining the same would cost us 14 wins (from 96 wins to a .500 team). Anything can happen over a 162-game season, but on paper I believe that adding two league minimum players in Green and Gamel should allow us to spend money to upgrade SS and do our best to maintain our bullpen, leading us to another playoff-capable team in 2012.

[TooLiveBrew]

Combined numbers of McGehee, Yuni and Fielder average out to a .259 avg / .327 OBP / .433 SLG / .759 OPS with horrible defense. Giving 1,184 PAs to players as bad as Yuni and McGehee essentially negated the MVP-caliber performance Fielder posted.

That's painful.

I agree that Gamel & Green would both be able to OPS in the mid-700s, with overall better defense than Fielder/McGehee. McGehee will still be in the mix imo as a 1B/3B reserve, which would be fine, it would just hurt the defense a bit.

[BrewersAA]

and let me just point out again that one of the most over looked part of what would really help this team in making those changes is baserunning. I know that the defense would be a HUGE upgrade and make out pitching better. and the hitting might go down a bit. but just think of how much more productive the brewers would be on the base paths. no more losing by 1 or 2 runs because prince, casey, and yuni cant score from first on a double. Less caught stealings, more runners in scoring position for braun (if we had reyes). Less double plays. Just what those guys would do for the brewers on the base paths might be enough for 2 or 3 wins.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs?

 

I think you are seriously overestimating Fielder and underestimating just how poor the production was at 3B and SS even compared to average this year. If anything our biggest loss will be the pen. Fielder is a good hitter but a poor fielder who really doesn't help out the other infielders with his play at 1B.

Betancourt produced 119 runs at SS. He scored 51 and drove in 68. That's about average for the position. There's a chance but no guaranty Green will vastly outproduce McGehee at 3B. But even if Green posts solid numbers, it's not safe to assume there won't be a spot in the lineup where one guy has an unexpectedly bad season. Most teams do every year.

 

A hitter of Fielder's caliber had more effect on the lineup than you give him credit for. Fielder reached base 287 times. Personally, to me he was the league MVP, not Braun. Gamel could hit .285 and hit 25 HR, but he's not going to stress the opposing pitcher or affect managerial decision making the way Fielder did. What separated the Brewers in 2011 was that their 3 and 4 hitters had an edge on everyone else they played. While having one great player in a lineup is better than none, it doesn't separate you from the pack like having 2 MVP candidates does.

 

 

[monty57]

I wholeheartedly agree that Prince will be missed. He is one of the best hitters in baseball. I'm riding on the ray of hope that because we had such bad overall offense and defense at SS & 3B we will be able to improve on those positions to help ease the step back we will take from moving from Fielder to Gamel (or anyone else who could try to fill Prince's shoes).

 

One other nice thing (if we go with Gamel & Green) is that we will finally have some LH/RH balance in the starting lineup on a regular basis. That may not match the stress Braun/Fielder gave opposing pitchers, but it is something we've missed for quite a while. Plus, if we can get a good leadoff guy to play SS, it would allow Weeks, Braun and Hart to bat 3-4-5, which is a decent middle of the order (all have 30+ HR potential) which could knock in a lot of runs if Morgan and the SS could get on base on a regular basis in front of them.

[chuckiehacks]

While having one great player in a lineup is better than none, it doesn't separate you from the pack like having 2 MVP candidates does.

 

But the flip side of that is that at no point this year did the Brewers have a lineup that made opposing teams think "There are no holes in this lineup." Playing against the Brewers, you had 1/3 of the lineup that got on base less than 28% of the time. Those are relatively easy outs.

 

 

[RobertR]

Betancourt produced 119 runs at SS. He scored 51 and drove in 68. That's about average for the position. There's a chance but no guaranty Green will vastly outproduce McGehee at 3B. But even if Green posts solid numbers, it's not safe to assume there won't be a spot in the lineup where one guy has an unexpectedly bad season. Most teams do every year.

 

A hitter of Fielder's caliber had more effect on the lineup than you give him credit for. Fielder reached base 287 times. Personally, to me he was the league MVP, not Braun. Gamel could hit .285 and hit 25 HR, but he's not going to stress the opposing pitcher or affect managerial decision making the way Fielder did. What separated the Brewers in 2011 was that their 3 and 4 hitters had an edge on everyone else they played. While having one great player in a lineup is better than none, it doesn't separate you from the pack like having 2 MVP candidates does.

 

You're failing to connect the dots there. Betancourt drove in 68 runs because he had Fielder (who you cite reaching base 287 times) and Braun ahead of him in the lineup. The average SS didn't hit behind two MVP candidates with high OBPs. It wouldn't at all surprise me if Betancourt lead all NL SSs in PAs with RISP.

 

Robert

 

 

[logan82]

Gamel could hit .285 and hit 25 HR, but he's not going to stress the opposing pitcher or affect managerial decision making the way Fielder did.

 

How is that a disadvantage? If the other team doesn't make pitching changes to gain an advantage it only helps us. I would take Gamel vs a RHP over Fielder vs a LHP.

[Baldkin]

Betancourt produced 119 runs at SS.

Yep. With this line: With RISP: .237 average, .614 OPS, with men on .216 avg, .567 OPS. Implying he did anything close to average with guys on base is a farce.

[Funketown]

Combined numbers of McGehee, Yuni and Fielder average out to a .259 avg / .327 OBP / .433 SLG / .759 OPS with horrible defense. Giving 1,184 PAs to players as bad as Yuni and McGehee essentially negated the MVP-caliber performance Fielder posted.

I'm surprised nobody brought those numbers up before, but I guess they just reinforce my feelings all along. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the combination of Green at 3B, Barmes? at SS, and Gamel or Comparable at 1B to his about that well with much better defense.

 

To reiterate, losing Fielder sucks, but the money can be better spent elsewhere.

[reillymcshane]

Combined numbers of McGehee, Yuni and Fielder average out to a .259 avg / .327 OBP / .433 SLG / .759 OPS with horrible defense. Giving 1,184 PAs to players as bad as Yuni and McGehee essentially negated the MVP-caliber performance Fielder posted.

I'm surprised nobody brought those numbers up before, but I guess they just reinforce my feelings all along. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the combination of Green at 3B, Barmes? at SS, and Gamel or Comparable at 1B to his about that well with much better defense.

 

To reiterate, losing Fielder sucks, but the money can be better spent elsewhere.

I agree with funketown on this one. have said so before. it was nice seeing the monty put the numbers together.

 

Getting a trio of players at the SS, 3B and 1B positions to produce a .750 OPS will be a challenge, but I think it's in reach. Combine that with better defense, and you're talking a wash. Can a trio of players like Barmes/Green/Gamel produce .750ish OPS? I think so. Certainly not a lock, but possible.

 

Fielder's presence is going to be impossible to replace. Just being in the lineup changes how people think about facing us. But having Yuni and McGehee also affected how teams pitched to us (and not in a good way for the Brewers).