When the smoke clears...

[logan82]

However, Greinke was out for a month and a half, and the shuffling of our rotation to make sure Estrada got as few starts as possible probably had something to due with some underperformance in the first half and Marcum running into a brick wall with innings come playoff time. Also, we didn't have anyone as AAA insurance this season, so we were very lucky we weren't hit with more injuries. Next year, we should have some Major-League-ready arms in AAA, allowing for us to have some injuries without imploding.

 

Greinke out for a month and a half isn't really that big of a deal when you look at starting pitcher health of all of baseball year to year. I have not done 2011 yet but no team in baseball used fewer than 7 starter in 2010 or 2009. We had extremely good luck with starting pitcher health this you which would contribute to the team playing above expectations. No starter made more than 33 starts this year. The only ones who got switched around while Greinke was out were Estrada and Narveson.

 

Marcum only pitched 210.1 innings this year. He pitched 195.1 last year. I don't think he hit a wall. I suspect he got injured sometime around the end of August or the beginning of September. Either that or he lost the feel for his pitches for a few games which just happened to be in the playoffs.

 

2010

Pitchers Teams

7 - 2

8 - 6

9 - 5

10 - 11

11 - 3

12 - 2

14 - 1

 

2009

Pitchers Teams

7 - 1

8 - 1

9 - 7

10 - 4

11 - 5

12 - 9

14 - 2

15 - 1

[MNBrew]

Given this heartbreaking loss, I don't think any current Brewer will go into this offseason with a great taste in their mouths. No one except maybe Axford performed all the way to the bitter end in a way that doesn't leave many doors open for potential regrets.

 

In other words, no one has any even remote justification for a complacent attitude this offseason. Granted, no one's saying they will. But here is where I'm going with that idea:

 

McGehee was the team MVP in '10. Solid BA, great HR & RBI numbers, better defense (I believe) than most with a heavy stats bias say he had. Then what happened? Well, we don't actually know. However, we do know that Casey REALLY wasn't on track at all in ST and he basically spent almost the whole year still trying to rediscover his good groove. The harder he tried, often the worse he got. . . . . My point is this: McGehee is one of a host of Brewers who should have plenty of motivation to come back & prove their critics wrong in '12, whether just in regards to their postseason struggles or a sub-standard full '11 season. . . . How well they do at that will have a very large bearing on where this team sits in 2012.

[dlk9s]

as a cardinal fan i will say this about the brewers and cardinals next season.

the brewers are actually a very good team with some great talent. if they can figure out a way to make sure nyjer morgan isnt back on the team they will be a very solid team. players like that spoil very easily in a clubhouse and i believe morgan was beginning to spoil in the brewers clubhouse. you can use whatever money you were going to give to prince and upgrade shortstop and thirdbase.

http://i.imgur.com/9bVtq.jpg

[gregmag]

I feel crazy depressed about the loss. I couldn't even watch the last two games. Also, I live in freakin' St. Louis, so that doesn't help.

 

But when I stop to think about it -- what a great year. The team won big. A lot of things went right. We won a playoff series for the first time since I was in high school. On a personal level, I've had a rough year, and the Brewers gave me a lot of lifts.

 

The strange thing about the postseason is that we lost primarily because of our biggest strength. Starting pitching won us the division, and starting pitching deserted us in the postseason. There's not a whole lot to say about that. We would be insane to blow up the rotation this winter -- it's excellent from top to bottom, and everybody is under contract. Heck, Estrada was an excellent #6. We'll have some very strong arms a phone call away at AAA. I'm not saying we shouldn't trade a starter under any circumstances, but it's not something we do unless the return makes it irresistable.

 

Prince is gone. We need to use that fact as a spur to get better, and losing this series may make that easier. Yuni has to go. McGehee can't come back in anything close to a frontline capacity. We need to find bodies for 1b, ss, and 3b that can field the positions and compensate for the combination of Fielder, Yuni, and McGehee in the lineup, which is very doable -- Gamel, Hairston, and Green may be all or part of the solution. Rebuilding the bullpen will be tricky, because bullpens are always tricky.

 

My bottom line for the offseason is that we had a very good team with some huge flaws. From a retooling standpoint, that's great news: there's no reason, not even Prince's departure, that we shouldn't be able to get better.

[Jimbo]

I'm not as disappointed with the loss to the Cards as most on this board. Once they got in as WC, I had the gut feeling they were taking the pennant. They remind me of last year's Packers. Plus, I didn't see the Brewers getting by the the Phillies, so my expectations weren't as high.

 

But it does bug me that they lost to a division rival that they spent six months trying to put away. But mostly though, watching Hart, Hardy, Krenzel, Weeks, Fielder and all coming up through the minors and I was fully expecting a WS appearance by 2007. It's 2011 and just the one trip to the LCS and Prince is gone.

[AJAY]

I think if the Brewers had lost to any other team, I would appreciate what they did this season. But because they lost to St. Louis in such embarrasing fashion, I am extremely bitter and angry. This has been very difficult for me. This was supposed to be one of the greatest seasons in Brewers history, and instead they were eliminated by the hated Cardinals. It is the most horrible ending ever.

 

I still feel like St. Louis had no business being in the postseason considering how far back they were heading into September. Since they barely got in, I always felt they are not as deserving of moving on. I feel very cheated.

 

I understand that our starting pitchers did not do well, but neither did theirs. It almost feels like LaRussa did something sneaky and under-handed by overusing his bullpen and not paying a price for it. Yes, I know they followed the rules, but it was so unconventional that it did not even feel like real baseball. For all of my life, you needed quality starting pitching to get through October, but the one year the Brewers get in to the NLCS, the Cardinals somehow manage to change the rules. I don't get how they got away with it.

 

I can't understand why Shaun Marcum turned into a disaster when it mattered the most. I can't understand how Zack Greinke did not even get one strikeout. I can't understand why we never pitched inside and backed off more of their hitters. I can't understand why Ron Roenicke did not figure out what LaRussa was doing and start showing more urgency himself in pulling struggling starters. He was asleep in the dugout. It always felt like we were behind in the first inning all the time and I don't know why this had to happen in October when it never happened all the other months of the season. Nothing about this series ever felt normal and it did not in anyway seem representative of real baseball and what we saw this season. It was just too bizarre and disturbing to accept.

 

I can't understand how the Cardinals beat us in 1982. Their lineup was a joke. I can't understand how a franchise that won only 83 games in 2006 ended up with a ring. We had a better regular season than St. Louis this year with nothing to show for.

 

I can't understand how the Braves blew such a big lead. I can't understand how their closer Kimbrel started blowing saves to let the Cardinals in at the last minute. I was very excited when Prince Fielder hit the big homerun in the All-Star Game. Now I will forever feel sick about that moment because our own player gave the hated Cardinals home field advantage. The whole memory of that moment is now ruined.

 

I am mad that Nyjer Morgan started tweeting about the Cardinals. That brought us bad luck and now makes us look foolish. The wrong team now gets the last laugh,

 

I hate Tony LaRussa with a passion and it makes me sick that he is going to the World Series again. I hate that Cardinals fans are so spoiled too. 18 pennants already. Why can't we ever get one too. Why do the sports gods hate us so much?

 

I don't understand why there isn't more anger amongst the Brewers players. Their reactions and statements to the media were very disappointing.

 

Nothing makes any sense to me right now. Nothing at all.

 

Sorry if I have issues right now.

[danzig6767]

This is the most fun I've ever had following baseball. It's also been incredibly unhealthy heart wise these past few weeks, but that's what we live for, right? Division champs, and winners of a playoff series. How many of us would have loved that outcome before the year began?

 

And I know it hurts to get so close, but man. These guys made it so much fun, and lots of them are coming back next year. What a ride, and I know I'll be ready to buckle up again come March.

 

Go Brewers.

I was frustrated by the play in the Cardinals series as much as anyone else, but what this season brought for me the most is remembering again just how intense and exciting playoff baseball is. I had forgotten that after pretty much 25 plus years of futility.

 

Unlike many here, i've always been a bigger Packers fan than Brewers fan. I never thought any other sporting event could cause the level of

nerves i get for Packers playoff games, so i was a bit caught off

guard by just how high the stress level had reached for me during this

Brewers playoffs run. Obviously i knew they'd be intense, but i didn't

quite expect to get that Packers playoff game level of nerves for pretty

much all of these playoff games besides the blowout ones. Any game that was been close at times was excruciating to watch and with

baseball playoffs being one game after another, unlike once a week for

football, i'm had to get used to that level of tension night after

night.

 

Now that it's over, i already miss having that nervous tension to look forward to each night and i want it back again next year. The extreme high of like the Nyjer hit in Game 5 or the excruciating tension brought about in the 8th and 9th innings of that same game where each pitch was torture to watch. I finally have the playoff taste back after decades of forgetting completely just how much fun it is to be apart of.

[young guns]

I never really realized it until I read AJAY's post, but I also feel cheated. Being born after '82, this was the best Brewer team, and the one that has done the most, that I have ever seen. Being a small market club, I have no clue when a team like this will ever come along again. I realize next year's team should still be very good, but just a little bit going wrong, a rookie flopping , a major injury, or resigning yuni, and we might fail to even get to .500. It just doesn't seem fair.

[Invader3K]

I don't understand why there isn't more anger amongst the Brewers players. Their reactions and statements to the media were very disappointing.

 

I basically decided for myself that there isn't any point in being angry. I had a blast watching the team this year, and they still got further than any other Brewers team I can ever remember (I was born in 1980). Doug Melvin and this team know that they choked away a great opportunity right at the end. Is there anything that could have been done differently? I'm really not sure. I appreciate your post and your passion, though. I admit that losing to the Cardinals was the worst possible scenario. It's like losing to the neighborhood bully. I hope the Rangers beat them thoroughly, though I won't bother watching the World Series. I'm just too drained emotionally to deal with it.

 

I guess I am still optimistic that the team will remain competitive for the next several years. Our much maligned minor league system has some guys on the cusp of breaking into the majors, and maybe some of them will step up. Another reason for optimism is that the starting rotation isn't the huge question mark it's been in past off-seasons. Melvin is also going to have to get creative this off-season and make some moves. Fortunately, past history has shown he's fully capable of doing that.

[reillymcshane]

I never really realized it until I read AJAY's post, but I also feel cheated. Being born after '82, this was the best Brewer team, and the one that has done the most, that I have ever seen. Being a small market club, I have no clue when a team like this will ever come along again. I realize next year's team should still be very good, but just a little bit going wrong, a rookie flopping , a major injury, or resigning yuni, and we might fail to even get to .500. It just doesn't seem fair.

I was 18 in 1982. I was at the 5th game of the World Series. I still remember where I was for game 7. But I thought we'd be back. Little did I know.

 

I don't really feel cheated or angry. I feel an intense disappointment - because I don't know when (or if) we'll get another chance to win it all. As young guns says, I think we can retool for next year, but anything can throw a wrench in those plans (injuries, whatever).

 

I do think we have management in place that will keep us from the dark ages like under Sal Bando. So that encourages me. I'm optimistic about 2012.

 

But while i'm disappointed in how this year ended, I appreciate what we did and the effort the team made. People have pointed last year's Packer's as a team that got hot at the right time. That's part of baseball too. You need players to be healthy and playing well to win a World Series. Let's hope our team is that team next year.

[DougJones43]

...what this season brought for me the most is remembering again just how intense and exciting playoff baseball is. I had forgotten that after pretty much 25 plus years of futility.

 

Unlike many here, i've always been a bigger Packers fan than Brewers fan. I never thought any other sporting event could cause the level of nerves i get for Packers playoff games, so i was a bit caught off guard by just how high the stress level had reached for me during this Brewers playoffs run.

I felt a fun nervousness and excitement during the Arizona series. There were ups and downs during that series, but it seemed like a good, hard fought series between both teams including a pitcher's duel to end it.

 

The Cardinal series wasn't like that for me, and it's not just because we lost. Like Ajay said, it didn't even feel like playoff baseball. It was just depressing. It didn't even seem like the Brewers were the same group of guys they were during the regular season.

 

It felt more like a nationally televised regular season series from 2004 or something, where we had no business being on the same field as the Cardinals. Error after error. Horrible starting pitching. Multiple run deficits in the first inning to start most of the games. No clutch hitting. LaRussa and their team looking calm and in control, while our manager and team looked shell-shocked in the dugout. Not at all what I expected out of a NLCS appearance.

 

I too feel cheated, duped, and let down by our entire team. Cardinal Nation is once again Lucy holding the football laughing, and we're Charlie Brown flat on our backs wondering what happened.

[monty57]

I think they'll have less than $25MM to spend. MLBTR has a good breakdown.

In brief, it says the Brewers have $58.58MM locked into contracts, and estimates McGehee ($3.1MM - 1st year arby), Morgan ($1.9MM - 1st year arby), Gomez ($1.8MM - 3rd year arby), Marcum ($6.8MM - 3rd year arby), Loe ($2.8MM - 2nd year arby) for a total of $16.4MM, and a total team payroll of $75MM, leaving them at roughly $9MM to spend.

 

Personally, there is no way I'd pay McGehee $3.1MM, and don't think he'll get it in arby after this season. The article does say they'd guess the Brewers will trade him. Loe is also not worth that, so assuming they're correct with Morgan, Gomez and Marcum, that would put us around $69MM if we don't keep McGehee, Loe, Parra, Stetter, or Wilson. Around $70MM if we keep Kottaras.

 

If we use Green at 3B and Gamel at 1B, we're around $71MM with 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, RF, CF, all 5 SP and some bullpen arms signed. If we assumed an $85MM payroll, we would have $14MM to cover SS and the bullpen. We had a bump from the playoffs this year, and apparently will be gaining around $20MM/year from the new TV deal in 2013, so I think $85MM could be low, especially since Attanasio said the Brewers payroll this year (after Hairston and K-Rod) was around $95MM.

 

Melvin will certainly sign a veteran or two for the bullpen, but I would be very surprised if we don't go after a big upgrade at SS. Reyes may be priced out of our range (and may not be worth what he'll get), but I could see us looking in the $10MM range if necessary to fill SS. We should definitely be able to get into the bidding for a Barmes or Furcal as a FA, or we could make a trade with a team trying to shed some salary this offseason.

[chadomac]

Is Rollins an option? What kind of money is he going to get? I agree that SS is where most of our free agent money is going to go, regardless of what is left. Just not sure who we can afford.

[tstads20]

I like the idea of Rollins, but I feel like it'd take good money to pull him away from Philly. In that same respect, I wouldn't want to give him more than a 2 or 3-year deal, which he might not be interested in.

 

Seems to circumstantial, if you ask me.

[RockCoCougars]

Rollins apparently wants a 5 year deal. I wouldn't give him more than two. My preference would be Barmes (might slip through the cracks) or Furcal (didn't look 'done' to me as many were saying around the trade deadline).

[chadomac]

I was just searching around MLBTradeRumors and he's seeking 5 years, but the people at that website believe he'll get 3 or 4 years in reality. 12-14 per year.

[TooLiveBrew]

3-4 years at $36M-$48M for a 33-yo who hasn't OPS'd .800 since 2008 while playing in a hitter's dream park? No thanks.

 

Spend less money on a guy like Barmes, don't panic, & have money left to float at Greinke. He's the guy you want for a big-money extension.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

The regular season results were very fulfilling. That 26-5 stretch from late July to late August was without doubt the best stretch I've ever seen this franchise play (the start to 87 season was more exciting but is tarnished by knowing what happened after 20-3). It was really pleasant to have a pitching staff in place where you knew it would unlikely to go much than 4-5 games without being in it. It was a privilege to watch Braun and Fielder every day. It was amazing to go to Miller Park in August and to see a packed house and the electricity there.

 

The post season was an EKG for me. The amazing hs of games 1 and 2 vs AZ, Morgan's walkoff, Braun murdering that ball in game 1 vs STL, the 6 runs in like 2 minutes outburst, Wolf's game 4. The amazing lows - seeing the pitching just let us down, Weeks not doing a thing, the amazingly bad defense, Braun getting completely lost the last 2 games.

 

All in all I'd call it a great season. As much as I hated the ending, it was a rare experience for Brewer fans, and it's WAY better than getting geeked about .500.

 

As always, I will remain hopeful that eventually we'll break through and win it all, though realistically I think this was the best shot we will have for the foreseeable future.

 

Finally - I truly appreciate every single time I get to hear Bob Uecker call a Brewer game, I cannot imagine a Brewers broadcast without him.

[monty57]

Spend less money on a guy like Barmes, don't panic, & have money left to float at Greinke. He's the guy you want for a big-money extension.

 

Greinke could be the biggest beneficiary of the new TV deal :-)

[Roderick]

I think they'll have less than $25MM to spend. MLBTR has a good breakdown.

so I think $85MM could be low, especially since Attanasio said the Brewers payroll this year (after Hairston and K-Rod) was around $95MM.

I don't see much wiggle room myself, if I did the numbers right. We would be close to $90M before shortstop costs. I would assume that Melvin would want to start the year around $90M and have room to trade for dollars if the Brewers are in it.

 

$35.7M for starting pitching (all the same)

$10.0M for relievers (assume a couple of free agent grizzled vet(s))

$10.0M Weeks, $9.0 Hart, $8.5M Braun (inc. prorated signing bonus), $2.8MMcGehee, $6M Gomez+Morgan+Hairston, $2.2M Lucroy+Gamel+Green+backupIF+backupC

$4.0M KRod buyout

$1.6M Sept and injury callups

[monty57]

I was going off the article. Using brewerfan's salary page, we've got:

 

1B: Gamel $414k

2B: Weeks $10MM

SS: ?

3B: Green $414k

C: Lucroy $424k

LF: Braun $6MM

CF: Morgan $1.9MM (using MLBTR's guess)

CF: Gomez $1.8MM (using MLBTR's guess)

RF: Hart $9MM

 

#5OF: Kotsay-type $800k

Utility: Hairston $1.4MM (Counsell's salary)

McGehee: $2MM (if he gets more than this, cut him)

Kottaras: $800k

 

SP: Gallardo $5.5MM

SP: Greinke $13.5MM

SP: Marcum $6.8MM (using MLBTR's guess)

SP: Wolf $9.5MM

SP: Narveson $441k

 

LR: Estrada (or other in-house option) $414k

MR: Kintzler (or other in-house option) $414k

MR: Braddock (or other in-house option) $414k

MR: de La Cruz (or other in-house option) $414k

SU: veteran signee $4MM (Hawkins contract)

SU: Saito ? $1.75MM

CL: Axford $442k

 

That gets us to about $78.5 without including K-Rod and Yuni's buyouts, which I think are $6MM, so around $85MM without a SS. I don't know how Braun's pro-rated signing bonus works, and while the team certainly keeps a "fund" for injuries/callups, I don't know what of that is considered on the starting payroll figures. Of course, this also assumes we'll start Gamel & Green and go with some in-house bullpen options, and as this shows, we may not be able to afford not to starts these two next year.

 

Barmes made $3.925MM this year, so I think he's probably a possibility for the Brewers to pursue, and he actually might not cost any more than it would cost us to exercise Yuni's option.

 

I'm sure Melvin will do something that will throw all of us for a loop, but I'd be happy if he signed Barmes, Saito, Hairston and another bullpen arm to go along with his annual veteran OF signing. Other than that, we should be good to go.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think they'll have less than $25MM to spend. MLBTR has a good breakdown.

so I think $85MM could be low, especially since Attanasio said the Brewers payroll this year (after Hairston and K-Rod) was around $95MM.

I don't see much wiggle room myself, if I did the numbers right. We would be close to $90M before shortstop costs. I would assume that Melvin would want to start the year around $90M and have room to trade for dollars if the Brewers are in it.

 

$35.7M for starting pitching (all the same)

$10.0M for relievers (assume a couple of free agent grizzled vet(s))

$10.0M Weeks, $9.0 Hart, $8.5M Braun (inc. prorated signing bonus), $2.8MMcGehee, $6M Gomez+Morgan+Hairston, $2.2M Lucroy+Gamel+Green+backupIF+backupC

$4.0M KRod buyout

$1.6M Sept and injury callups

It's going to cost them more like $38 million for the same 5 starters that they paid roughly $33 million to this year. They really need to get the total for starting pitching back down to $30 million. Marcum figures to get a $3 million raise and Gallardo gets $2.25 million more. That's why I believe it's a certainty that one starter gets traded. That guy won't be Gallardo. It could be any of the other 3. Greinke is not the same guy he was for the Royals two years ago. He just isn't and it doesn't make sense to sign a guy long term for upwards of $15 million per year who's turning into Carl Pavano. Paying something over $16 million for the combo of Wolf and Marcum seems extreme to me also especially given the $13.5 going to ZG.

[monty57]

Given the whirldwind we saw last offseason, it's entirely possible that anyone gets traded this offseason. However, given the fact that it was starting pitching woes which cost us two lost seasons in 2009 & 2010, I don't think Melvin will trade a SP unless he is pretty certain that several of the minor leaguers are ready to play at the MLB level. As several other posters have mentioned, we got lucky that we didn't miss many starts due to injury. I like having some MLB-ready arms at AAA in 2012, ready to fill in for injuries and step into a full-time role in 2013.

 

As in most cases, if the right deal is there, do it. But I wouldn't actively shop any of our SP this offseason.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Melvin said in his press conference today that he thinks Fiers has a good shot at a rotation spot this year. That's either Narvy's spot or that means he's gonna trade one of his starters.

[MNBrew]

Putting 2 & 2 together...

 

Given the organization's preference for hard-throwers, if Fiers ends up in the rotation, I'd think he's more likely to take the spot of someone who doesn't throw as hard. In other words, Greinke or Yo are far less likely to be traded than any of the other 3 guys.