Would you hold back Greinke for Game 6 now??

[Ennder]

When you think about it the concept of home vs road splits is pretty silly in the first place. Greinke pitching in Petco is going to be better than Miller no matter what his splits say. Looking closer at the game logs he had quite a few good road games this year, he really struggled @NYY and @CHC (in a 7-12 game so probably wind blowing out) and then one stinker @Pit. 8 of his 13 road starts were really solid including the one @STL.

[Glennron]

Gallardo Game 6, Wolf Game 7. Cut Marcum out of the equation, it's too risky.

Wolf pitched the game of his life last night and deserves all the credit in the world, but him pitching in a game 7 would make me cringe.

[jjfanec]

When you think about it the concept of home vs road splits is pretty silly in the first place. Greinke pitching in Petco is going to be better than Miller no matter what his splits say. Looking closer at the game logs he had quite a few good road games this year, he really struggled @NYY and @CHC (in a 7-12 game so probably wind blowing out) and then one stinker @Pit. 8 of his 13 road starts were really solid including the one @STL.

Not just this but he also had a handful of wins at Miller Park that should have or could have been losses. He wasnt dominate in Game 1 or against Arizona so why act like he is a guaranteed win at home.

[jhart05]

Greinke must go tonight. Not even a second thought.

 

Bring it back home leading 3-2.

 

Start thinking about Game 6 at around 10:30pm CT tonight. However if we must talk about Game 6, you can't start Marcum there. He's got to come down with some mysterious arm injury. For Game 2, you could feel something wasn't right from the beginning. I'm talking about the crowd. Wasn't the same as all the other playoff games. It was like we expected to lose from the start.

 

A lot depends upon tonight of course. Lose and I think we see Gallardo on Sunday. Win and I would put Narveson out there for as long as he can go. Hopefully he can give you at least three innings, then whatever you need to do to bridge the gap to Hawkins, Saito, Rodriguez, and Axford for 6 thru 9.

 

Go Crew!!

[TauPentaRei]

Greinke for 8 innings... or a reaching-the-end-of-his-innings-limit Odorizzi for 5 and now-I-have-control-mastered-and-getting-stretched-out Jeffress for 3

 

yeah, the first one. what it's all about.

[endaround]

1) You put Greinke on normal rest

 

2)You allow him to be available for an inning or two if game 7 goes to extras.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

This is why you traded for Greinke. You gotta go with him.

 

And per earlier comment - I agree, Zack tonight, Yo Sunday, and Wolf if needed.

[gregmag]

Somebody, it may have been Jayson Stark, did an analysis before the division series of what happens when you have starters go on short rest in the postseason. The basic message was, it isn't pretty. Then Greinke and Carpenter both went out on short rest and got shelled. This is obviously one of those things that comes down to individual pitchers' tendencies, but I wouldn't want to come back with Yo, or Wolf, or anyone on short rest unless Kranitz has a good reason to think it will work better than it usually does. I'm convinced that Marcum is worn out, but I don't know that you help yourself by putting a couple of guys out there in difficult circumstances rather than letting him go. Now, pitching Narveson instead of Marcum -- I can see an argument for that.

[Patrick425]

A couple of interesting articles about Grienke that I saw today....

 

 

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/14/2489442/zack-greinke-nlcs-game-5-xfip

 

Then this article by Jeff Passan who just seems to have a general hatred for the Brewers (recently wrote another article just completely ripping on Morgan):

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AhnKX1j4GDQcfGhmMESkSPU5nYcB?slug=jp-passan_greinke_brewers_cardinals_game_6_101311

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

No. I actually would have been very tempted to run him out there yesterday. A win today wouldn't kill the Cardinals, but it'd go a long way in doing so.

[YoGasKpose]

Game 5 is always huge. I know winning last night guaranteed a series headed back to Milwaukee, but there is a huge difference between being up 3-2 and down 2-3. Not that the latter would be insurmountable for the Crew, but you know those early frames in Game 6 might be a little tight and scary.

 

You have to give your team the best chance to win. That's Greinke tonight. Totally buy that argument.

[Jofis11ep]

Didn't know where to put this, but I thought it would work well here because it seems that a majority think Greinke should start tonight. BUT... what do you do if we happen to lose tonight and go home down 3-2? Do you pitch Marcum on regular rest even though he is struggling or do you move up Yo a day because it's an elimination game?

 

It's amazing how much one game can change everything in the playoffs. It's so nervewrecking, but I love it!

[jeffy]

If we're going to base the decision on small samples, Greinke has great stats at Busch stadium this year.

 

Maybe we have been looking at the wrong splits and the key is he pitches well in ballparks that are named after beers. How has he done in CO? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JoeHova]

I would not hold Greinke back. I think, with so few games left in the season (as little as 2, as many as 10), a team should be trying to win each one. And I'm not super enthusiastic about Zack pitching at home after how horrible he's been in the post-season. I think that, at this point, he'll either turn it around or not and it won't really matter whether he's at home or on the road. It would be really nice if he could live up to the Fangraphs "most dominating pitcher in baseball" title tonight though (they have him with the best xFIP in MLB).

[Ennder]

If we're going to base the decision on small samples, Greinke has great stats at Busch stadium this year.

 

Maybe we have been looking at the wrong splits and the key is he pitches well in ballparks that are named after beers. How has he done in CO? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

6 IP, 0 ER http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Teatoe993]

Maybe we have been looking at the wrong splits and the key is he pitches well in ballparks that are named after beers. How has he done in CO? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Don't forget Land Shark!

[dlk9s]

Didn't know where to put this, but I thought it would work well here because it seems that a majority think Greinke should start tonight. BUT... what do you do if we happen to lose tonight and go home down 3-2? Do you pitch Marcum on regular rest even though he is struggling or do you move up Yo a day because it's an elimination game?

 

It's amazing how much one game can change everything in the playoffs. It's so nervewrecking, but I love it!

Going under the assumption that Marcum will not be replaced in the rotation, I'd go with Marcum in Game 6 and Yo in Game 7. We'd have to win both games, so both guys would get starts if we were to accomplish the feat. Thus, I feel that Marcum on 5 days rest and Yo on 4 days rest gives us a better chance to win than Yo on 3 days rest and Marcum on 6 days rest.

 

I go with that same scenario if we win tonight, too.

[1992casey]

If we're going to base the decision on small samples, Greinke has great stats at Busch stadium this year.

 

Maybe we have been looking at the wrong splits and the key is he pitches well in ballparks that are named after beers. How has he done in CO? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

6 IP, 0 ER http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

There were three unearned runs, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I guess you'd have to look back at the game log to decide how much "blame" should be assigned to Greinke.

[clancyphile]

I send Greinke out there. If he wins, Narveson and the pen for game six, and Yo for Game Seven. If not, then Gallardo for Game Six.

[SconnieKid]

I have no understanding of why you would pitch Yo in gm 6 if they are down 3-2. You are actually lessening his opportunity to win a game PLUS then you have to face Carpenter in a game 7 with ... who exactly? The goal is to win the series. You have to find a way to win 6 AND 7. Increasing your odds of winning gm 6 but crushing your odds of winning 7 is a terrible decision.

 

Thank goodness we won;t have to worry about it.

[jmeks23]

I almost think to hold Greinke back would be to detriment his confidence on the road. You're basically saying 'you can't win on the road, so we'll have to wait another game to pitch you'. Marcum needs to bounce back anyways, no matter what game he pitches

[chadomac]

I have no understanding of why you would pitch Yo in gm 6 if they are down 3-2. You are actually lessening his opportunity to win a game PLUS then you have to face Carpenter in a game 7 with ... who exactly? The goal is to win the series. You have to find a way to win 6 AND 7. Increasing your odds of winning gm 6 but crushing your odds of winning 7 is a terrible decision.

 

Thank goodness we won;t have to worry about it.

You use Yo in Game 6 because if we lose today... there may be no Game 7. If we win today, it's a different situation.

[bjkrautk]

You use Yo in Game 6 because if we lose today... there may be no Game 7. If we win today, it's a different situation.

The flipside of that thinking is that - if you lose game 5 - you still need to win 2 elimination games. Since Yo can only pitch in one of those two games, you'd expect him to pitch better on normal rest (ie., Game 7). If you can't win game 6 without him, you wouldn't win game 7 without him. Better to get the full outing from him than a shorter outing due to irregular rest.

 

[SconnieKid]

You use Yo in Game 6 because if we lose today... there may be no Game 7. If we win today, it's a different situation.

 

This literally makes my head hurt. You want to optimize your chances of winning both games. You are literally causing the chances of winning both to go down SUBSTANTIALLY by limiting the effectiveness of the best pitcher you have going in one of those two days.

 

You just don't use pitchers on short rest. The data on this is not debatable. What you are talking about lowers the EV of winning both by at least 10%. The sole purpose of doing so would be to have an extra game.

[FVBrewerFan]

That won't matter. We're going to win game 5. Greinke is in the clubhouse right now cross-breeding his filth to produce never seen before ultra-filth. He may walk alone, but it will be with a game 5 win.