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Would you hold back Greinke for Game 6 now??


Brewcrewin07
This was brought up on MLB channel last night, and I think they made a great point. Now that the series is guaranteed to go back to Milwaukee, would you, if you were RR, go with Marcum tonight instead, and pitch Greinke in Game 6?? The thought being Greinke is unbeaten at home, which would then guarantee you a game 7(if needed), with Yo going. Can you imagine a better scenario than that?? Your two best $$ pitchers going at home for the chance to go to the World Series?? I think the only downside to doing this would be the long rest Greinke would have, but otherwise, I actually think this might be one of the smartest things RR could do at this point. He won't, but I think he should. What say you BF.net nation??
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We finally have momentum starting to sway our way. There is no way I wanna hold Greinke back and give the Cards a good chance to get momentum back. Despite what people say, it is not a for sure W if Greinke pitches at home. My opinion is we put our best foot forward trying to take game 5 against a pitcher who is beatable. Then we roll back into MKE with a ton of momentum which hopefully helps Marcum rise above his struggles for 6. Go for the throat man!
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No way in hell I push Grienke back. I want to win today and he gives the Brewers the best chance to do so.

 

I don't buy into the magic of his home/road splits at all. Nobody has ever given a reason as to why they are what they are. If there's a good reason (maybe he gets really nervous when the crowd is against him or something), then fine, but nobody has ever shown a reason at all. The guys on MLB Network last night were talking like Miller Park is some magical place that gives Grienke an auto-win (I think one of them actually said it was an automatic win), ignoring the fact that he has pitched pretty ineffectively in two home postseason starts but was bailed out by the offense.

 

He's on regular rest. He's our best starting pitcher not of Mexican descent. He gives us the best chance to go up 3-2. I find it pretty funny that there are people that are willing to take a lower chance of a win Thursday because hey, being down 3-2 isn't a big deal when Miller Park = two wins!

 

Then, assuming Marcum will stay in the rotation (I'm not arguing for his inclusion or not, I'm just assuming he's not being benched), go with him on Sunday on 5 days rest and Gallardo on Monday (not that he'll be needed, right?) on four days rest.

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The thought being Greinke is unbeaten at home, which would then guarantee you a game 7(if needed), with Yo going.

If it were a guarantee that pitching at home would guarantee a brewer victory, pitching him in game 6 would be the obvious choice. The fact is, Greinke pitching at home is FAR from a guaranteed victory so waiting to pitch him in game 6 does not make sense.

 

Pitching Greinke in game 5 gives the brewers the best odds to win the series and set us up for the next series if we are lucky enough to get there. That said, Ron has not always gone with the option that gives the team the best chance to win (starting a right fielder in center field), so who knows what he will do.

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I don't think home field has much to do with Greinke, that is just variance speaking. Marcum pitching in St. Louis is a better fit though since it can potentially save him a HR here and there. I still wouldn't shift things around, let your guys pitch on their normal days as much as you can.
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For those that feel Greinke's splits are the reason to save him for pitching at MP, wouldn't the concept that he is due to lose come into play? I don't really believe in the validity of either of these theories, I think he has just gotten a ton of run support when he pitches there. A few years ago Claudio Vargas looked dominant if you only looked at W-L, he just benefited from getting 135 runs a game in support.
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Keep Greinke on regular rest.

 

He has mentioned that he doesn't like pitching on a long rest. So lets keep him where he is most comfortable physically and mentally. After getting roughed up the last couple times, limit any possible source of discomfort.

 

And make sure he has his own pillow....

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This made all the sense in the world and I was advocating for it. But that was only if you were willing to give Marcum's start to Narveson. Narveson could have started 5 or 6 and it made sense to have Greinke at home. But since Narveson pitched in game 3 that clearly isn't going to happen. So there really is no decision to make here.
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He doesn't like long rest and pitched poorly on short rest. Don't mess with Zach. The whole home/road split thing just doesn't make sense with him and is skewed by two really bad games. I do think there is some credence to Marcum's home/road splits since he gives up some long flys that are homers at MP and outs in places like St. Louis. I'm not sure Marcum will make it that far anyway in game 6 if he's really "toast". Just get Zach out there and get the W.
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For those that feel Greinke's splits are the reason to save him for pitching at MP, wouldn't the concept that he is due to lose come into play? I don't really believe in the validity of either of these theories, I think he has just gotten a ton of run support when he pitches there. A few years ago Claudio Vargas looked dominant if you only looked at W-L, he just benefited from getting 135 runs a game in support.

Don't say he's "due," say he will "regress towards the mean." Statheads will tear apart your "due" assertion but for some reason will respect the proper phrasing.

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If you want to go with Narvy, I really don't think his one inning in Game 3 would prevent him from starting Game 5. It's not like you're expecting 8 innings out of him, you would be looking for 5 then turn it over to a well-rested bullpen. Not saying they SHOULD do that, I still think you stick to the current rotation.
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Keep Greinke on regular rest.

 

He has mentioned that he doesn't like pitching on a long rest. So lets keep him where he is most comfortable physically and mentally. After getting roughed up the last couple times, limit any possible source of discomfort.

 

And make sure he has his own pillow....

Completely agree with this.

 

Moreover, the pressure just shifted to the Cardinals in a big way. This series is now a best of 3, with 2 of those 3 in Miller Park....where the Brewers don't lose often. Having to win back-to-back games as a road team is practically a death sentence. I want to slam the door tonight; force TLR to pitch Carpenter on Sunday on short rest just to stay alive (leaving Yo with a much better matchup in game 7 on normal rest). Greinke gives us the best chance of winning tonight.

 

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If we're going to base the decision on small samples, Greinke has great stats at Busch stadium this year. Leave him alone and let him pitch today. He is not incapable of pitching well on the road. I want Greinke today, Gallardo Game 6, Wolf Game 7. Cut Marcum out of the equation, it's too risky.
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Greinke needs to go tonight. You can't try and predict the future. Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. A win today and I'm good with whoever throws in game 6. The Cards need this game more than the Brewers. Needing a game against Greinke seems infinitely more difficult than against Marcum or Narveson right now.
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