outfielders

[chadomac]

Correct, Green and Gamel producing in 2012 makes it so they can afford to improve other areas of the team - mainly SS and the bullpen. I definitely want them both starting next year, with back-up plans/platoon-mates on the bench in case of injury or underperformance. Hairston, McGehee, and another player acquired by trade or free agency would do the trick.

[NievesNoNO]

Fangraphs' Matt Klassen:

Comment From Mark Thoughts on what Milwaukee does with Gamel? http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png

12:17

Matt Klaassen: I'm not sure what they will do with him. They do not seem to have much faith in his abilities -- I know that I would not count on him as a major-league 1B unless it was for a rebuilding team who could afford to give a guy like him a long look. He's not all that young, and he's not all that good.

Wow, I didn't know Matt Klaassen was a MLB GM!! Great, he works for Fangraphs, how nice. I'd say his opinion matters about as much as yours or mine.

[nate82]

Is that what they said about Ryan Howard when he was stuck behind Thome?

 

 

Speaking of the Phillies and blocked prospects. Matt Rizzotti is kind of like Howard. All offense and rather poor defense. If the Brewers do think about trading Gamel I wouldn't mind seeing if the Phillies would be interested in trading Rizzotti as he would make a good replacement for Prince. Maybe a McGehee for Rizzotti trade could be worked out.

[ramssuperbowl99]

"Whatever reason" is code for utter lack of defensive improvements (since those rankings have him improving his defense and becoming a steady defender at 3B, not as a 1B), a hidden injury that he didn't mention, and never really dominating AAA like a top prospect would be expected when repeating the level (wRC+ of 128 and 122 are nice, but not otherworldly).

And he's not an elite player. He's not going to be. He's a 1B. Here are some 1B/DH who are either almost assuredly going to end up better than him or already are:

Pujols, Fielder, A-Gonz, Tex, Miguel Cabrera, Votto, Hosmer, Freeman, Belt, Montero, Billy Butler, Alonso, Morse, Konerko, and probably a bunch more that I missed.

If "almost everyone we can bring in via FA" means we only look at 1B candidates, don't pursue any trades and generally don't try overly hard to bring in a better player. Then maybe. Gamel has a chance to be a 2 win 1B. That's a useful piece, but not the kind of player who is above trying to upgrade if possible.

I don't think its inconceivable that Gamel ends up as good as the players on the last half of your list. Heck, Morse was in the same position Gamel is now and never hit minor league pitching as well as Gamel has. I'm not against trying to upgrade ANY position but 1B just wouldn't be at the top of my list as I feel the cost to make a sure significant upgrade in terms of either dollars or prospects could be used elsewhere. I like Either as much as the next guy. If LA would trade him straight up for Gamel I'd certainly consider that move. Would that 10-12 million paid to Either hinder us from improving at SS, 3B or from keeping the bullpen stable? I'm not sure. It would just be nice to have Gamel step up and pencil him in at 1B at a nice cost for the next few years seeing he's already on the roster.

Name half of those guys. Because I listed 14 guys and 7 of them are .400 wOBA potential hitters.

I wouldn't even offer Gamel for Ethier. If the Dodgers want to get anything more than a Kentrail Davis type prospect, they need to offer up some money. Ethier has very little surplus value.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Gamel being in the minors until his age 27 season at best is clearly an indication of his talent level.

 

Is that what they said about Ryan Howard when he was stuck behind Thome?

 

I don't envision Gamel as a superstar, but he has hit well at every level of the minors, and apparently is a decent fielding 1B. He was not a good defensive 3B, and Casey coming along stuck him in AAA, when the other positions he could potentially play were filled with All Stars (Fielder, Braun, Hart). The Brewers have known Fielder was going to be gone at some point (most thought after last off-season), so keeping Gamel made more sense than trading him. The Brewers did think enough of Gamel that they made him untouchable in the Sabathia trade.

 

I would rather use the limited monetary resources the team will have this offseason to fill the positions where we don't have someone ready to step in, which are SS and the bullpen. Why spend millions on someone like Ethier if it means Kam Loe is our setup guy or Maysonet is our SS while Gamel rots away in AAA?

Ryan Howard's situation was different, and, if you remember correctly they traded a hall of famer to make room for him. It's also worth pointing out that Howard was at the height of his prospect status when they traded him, unlike Gamel who hasn't been relevant on the national prospect scene for 2 years now.

I also see no reason why the Brewers can't sign more than 1 guy or spend more than $12 M this offseason, yet everyone here is under the assumption this is all we have. Playoff revenue and TV revenue should manifest themselves in a $90 M payroll this season. Obviously Gamel + good shortstop > Ethier + below replacement junk. That wasn't what I was arguing.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Fangraphs' Matt Klassen:

Comment From Mark Thoughts on what Milwaukee does with Gamel? http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png

12:17

Matt Klaassen: I'm not sure what they will do with him. They do not seem to have much faith in his abilities -- I know that I would not count on him as a major-league 1B unless it was for a rebuilding team who could afford to give a guy like him a long look. He's not all that young, and he's not all that good.

Wow, I didn't know Matt Klaassen was a MLB GM!! Great, he works for Fangraphs, how nice. I'd say his opinion matters about as much as yours or mine.

When did I say anyone's opinion matters. And whether they do or not, it doesn't mean that the opinions aren't right or wrong. If the only opinions worth discussing are the opinions that matter, we should immediately shut this site down.

That's like me saying, "the sky is red" and you calling me an idiot. Then I say, "Oh who cares it's not like it matters!"

[monty57]

I also see no reason why the Brewers can't sign more than 1 guy or spend more than $12 M this offseason, yet everyone here is under the assumption this is all we have. Playoff revenue and TV revenue should manifest themselves in a $90 M payroll this season.

 

I agree the payroll should go up, and I hope the rumors of an extra $20MM or so from the new TV deal in 2013 are accurate. That said, there was a link on another site to (IIRC) an MLBTradeRumors article where the author believed that with our current obligations we have around $9MM to spend if we have an $85MM payroll. I thought the author was a little too generous with some of his arby salaries, but even with a $90MM payroll, we probably have somewhere around $15MM or so in "extra money" to fill out our roster unless we trade away one of our bigger contracts. That would be if we decide to start Gamel & Green at league minimum. If we use some of that money to pay a veteran 1B, then we just have less to pay a SS and to fill out the bullpen. It is one path Melvin could take, but personally I'd make sure I had a good plan for SS and the 'pen before I found someone other than Gamel to play 1B.

 

That said, now we have Attanasio saying he wants to sign Fielder, so there has to be some money somewhere. If we actually do sign Fielder, then the question for Gamel comes down to "do we trade Hart, and if so, do we go for offense with Gamel, defense with Schafer, or a little of both with Gindl?"

[NievesNoNO]

When did I say anyone's opinion matters. And whether they do or not, it doesn't mean that the opinions aren't right or wrong. If the only opinions worth discussing are the opinions that matter, we should immediately shut this site down.

That's like me saying, "the sky is red" and you calling me an idiot. Then I say, "Oh who cares it's not like it matters!"

Well, clearly you were trying to support your argument by posting a random quote from somebody who might appear to have some credibility. So, obviously you think his opinion matters in the context of this discussion. Obviously there are those who prefer to stick with Gamel this season and those who think we need to upgrade and some who think Gamel has no future. Count me as somebody who thinks he still has a future, and we should give a chance while being open minded to an upgrade but not necessarily pursuing one. I'd much rather put time and resources into signing Barmes, bringing Ramirez to play 3rd or upgrading pitching.

The sky can look red sometimes, I rarely call people idiots, and if I did, it really shouldn't matter to you.

[ramssuperbowl99]

NievesNoNO]

When did I say anyone's opinion matters. And whether they do or not, it doesn't mean that the opinions aren't right or wrong. If the only opinions worth discussing are the opinions that matter, we should immediately shut this site down.

That's like me saying, "the sky is red" and you calling me an idiot. Then I say, "Oh who cares it's not like it matters!"

Well, clearly you were trying to support your argument by posting a random quote from somebody who might appear to have some credibility. So, obviously you think his opinion matters in the context of this discussion. Obviously there are those who prefer to stick with Gamel this season and those who think we need to upgrade and some who think Gamel has no future. Count me as somebody who thinks he still has a future, and we should give a chance while being open minded to an upgrade but not necessarily pursuing one. I'd much rather put time and resources into signing Barmes, bringing Ramirez to play 3rd or upgrading pitching.

The sky can look red sometimes, I rarely call people idiots, and if I did, it really shouldn't matter to you.

He does have credibility - he gets paid to write about baseball. He's also someone objectively looking at Gamel instead of some blatant Brewer homer. If all I had to go on with a player was Matt Klassan's opinion and BF.net's collective opinion, I'm taking Klassan's.

I also don't get how I don't think Gamel has a future. He has a chance to be a 2 WAR player - that's good! That's a valuable piece that I'm excited to have. And the fact that you would "not necessarily pursue" an upgrade for your baseball team is insane. It's like saying, "Well, we could make the team better, but...nah".

And, as for your plan, why Gamel over Taylor Green? That makes 0 sense to me

 

[NievesNoNO]

ramssuperbowl99]

When did I say anyone's opinion matters. And whether they do or not, it doesn't mean that the opinions aren't right or wrong. If the only opinions worth discussing are the opinions that matter, we should immediately shut this site down.

That's like me saying, "the sky is red" and you calling me an idiot. Then I say, "Oh who cares it's not like it matters!"

Well, clearly you were trying to support your argument by posting a random quote from somebody who might appear to have some credibility. So, obviously you think his opinion matters in the context of this discussion. Obviously there are those who prefer to stick with Gamel this season and those who think we need to upgrade and some who think Gamel has no future. Count me as somebody who thinks he still has a future, and we should give a chance while being open minded to an upgrade but not necessarily pursuing one. I'd much rather put time and resources into signing Barmes, bringing Ramirez to play 3rd or upgrading pitching.

The sky can look red sometimes, I rarely call people idiots, and if I did, it really shouldn't matter to you.

He does have credibility - he gets paid to write about baseball. He's also someone objectively looking at Gamel instead of some blatant Brewer homer. If all I had to go on with a player was Matt Klassan's opinion and BF.net's collective opinion, I'm taking Klassan's.

I also don't get how I don't think Gamel has a future. He has a chance to be a 2 WAR player - that's good! That's a valuable piece that I'm excited to have. And the fact that you would "not necessarily pursue" an upgrade for your baseball team is insane. It's like saying, "Well, we could make the team better, but...nah".

And, as for your plan, why Gamel over Taylor Green? That makes 0 sense to me

 

Really, you wouldn't take the collective opinion of a group of people that have likely seen and researched Brewers players more in 1 day than 1 guy has spent in his "writing" career. I wasn't specifically referring to just you. No, I wouldn't put a lot of time and effort to try and upgrade the 1b position. I never said anything about the rest of the team, but twist my words if you must. What has Taylor Green done to have earned the 3rd base job?

 

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

NievesNoNO]

Well, clearly you were trying to support your argument by posting a random quote from somebody who might appear to have some credibility. So, obviously you think his opinion matters in the context of this discussion. Obviously there are those who prefer to stick with Gamel this season and those who think we need to upgrade and some who think Gamel has no future. Count me as somebody who thinks he still has a future, and we should give a chance while being open minded to an upgrade but not necessarily pursuing one. I'd much rather put time and resources into signing Barmes, bringing Ramirez to play 3rd or upgrading pitching.

The sky can look red sometimes, I rarely call people idiots, and if I did, it really shouldn't matter to you.

He does have credibility - he gets paid to write about baseball. He's also someone objectively looking at Gamel instead of some blatant Brewer homer. If all I had to go on with a player was Matt Klassan's opinion and BF.net's collective opinion, I'm taking Klassan's.

I also don't get how I don't think Gamel has a future. He has a chance to be a 2 WAR player - that's good! That's a valuable piece that I'm excited to have. And the fact that you would "not necessarily pursue" an upgrade for your baseball team is insane. It's like saying, "Well, we could make the team better, but...nah".

And, as for your plan, why Gamel over Taylor Green? That makes 0 sense to me

 

Really, you wouldn't take the collective opinion of a group of people that have likely seen and researched Brewers players more in 1 day than 1 guy has spent in his "writing" career. I wasn't specifically referring to just you. No, I wouldn't put a lot of time and effort to try and upgrade the 1b position. I never said anything about the rest of the team, but twist my words if you must. What has Taylor Green done to have earned the 3rd base job?

Yes. One group is collectively a bunch of homers. The other is a guy who views players objectively with no bias that I'm aware of. If I turned the clocks back a year, I'd find that the consensus on this forum was that Aumary Rivas was a back-end big league starter.

Your plan was sign Ramirez - I'm assuming that means at 3B since you don't like upgrading Gamel. And all Green did to earn a 3rd base job was hit better than Gamel. Not sure why you want to go and bring in an outside candidate in spite of Green, but at the same time not even pursue bringing any 1B in.

[Raw Biz]

He does have credibility - he gets paid to write about baseball. He's also someone objectively looking at Gamel instead of some blatant Brewer homer. If all I had to go on with a player was Matt Klassan's opinion and BF.net's collective opinion, I'm taking Klassan's.

I also don't get how I don't think Gamel has a future. He has a chance to be a 2 WAR player - that's good! That's a valuable piece that I'm excited to have. And the fact that you would "not necessarily pursue" an upgrade for your baseball team is insane. It's like saying, "Well, we could make the team better, but...nah".

And, as for your plan, why Gamel over Taylor Green? That makes 0 sense to me

 

Really, you wouldn't take the collective opinion of a group of people that have likely seen and researched Brewers players more in 1 day than 1 guy has spent in his "writing" career. I wasn't specifically referring to just you. No, I wouldn't put a lot of time and effort to try and upgrade the 1b position. I never said anything about the rest of the team, but twist my words if you must. What has Taylor Green done to have earned the 3rd base job?

Yes. One group is collectively a bunch of homers. The other is a guy who views players objectively with no bias that I'm aware of. If I turned the clocks back a year, I'd find that the consensus on this forum was that Aumary Rivas was a back-end big league starter.

I think the point he was trying to make was that because we follow the Brewers a lot more closely than a national guy, we'd probably have a little more insight. And just because we like the Brewers doesn't mean we're blind and automatically support anyone in the organization. If that was the case, we'd all want to keep Yuni. If anything, I think some people here are a little more down on certain players because they see them so much. The national consensus is that Greinke is a true ace and Marcum a solid 2/3, while some here think Greinke is no more than a 2/3 and Marcum is a 4 and should be traded.

An example from me is Corey Hart. A lot of people think he's a very good player but from watching him every game, I see his defensive liabilities, his inconsistency, and his love of the low-and-away slider and I don't think he's that great (a solid contributor for sure but I wouldn't care if he left). There have also been other players throughout the years that people here haven't been high on. Like I said, just because they play in this organization doesn't mean we're obligated to like them.

As for Gamel, it seems like all the naysayers have to go on is his 200 PAs over 3 years and the fact that he is 26 and hasn't been called up yet. The people who think he will be good are basing it off of his actual very good minor league numbers in his career, as well as having seen him play. If anything, he should at least be given the chance to prove himself with some consistent playing time before you write him off.

I'm also confused as to your feelings on him. You bad-mouthed him all thread and then in your last post said he has a chance to be a 2 WAR player (despite saying earlier he wouldn't be a 2 WAR player).

[ramssuperbowl99]

Really, you wouldn't take the collective opinion of a group of people that have likely seen and researched Brewers players more in 1 day than 1 guy has spent in his "writing" career. I wasn't specifically referring to just you. No, I wouldn't put a lot of time and effort to try and upgrade the 1b position. I never said anything about the rest of the team, but twist my words if you must. What has Taylor Green done to have earned the 3rd base job?

Yes. One group is collectively a bunch of homers. The other is a guy who views players objectively with no bias that I'm aware of. If I turned the clocks back a year, I'd find that the consensus on this forum was that Aumary Rivas was a back-end big league starter.

I think the point he was trying to make was that because we follow the Brewers a lot more closely than a national guy, we'd probably have a little more insight. And just because we like the Brewers doesn't mean we're blind and automatically support anyone in the organization. If that was the case, we'd all want to keep Yuni. If anything, I think some people here are a little more down on certain players because they see them so much. The national consensus is that Greinke is a true ace and Marcum a solid 2/3, while some here think Greinke is no more than a 2/3 and Marcum is a 4 and should be traded.

An example from me is Corey Hart. A lot of people think he's a very good player but from watching him every game, I see his defensive liabilities, his inconsistency, and his love of the low-and-away slider and I don't think he's that great (a solid contributor for sure but I wouldn't care if he left). There have also been other players throughout the years that people here haven't been high on. Like I said, just because they play in this organization doesn't mean we're obligated to like them.

As for Gamel, it seems like all the naysayers have to go on is his 200 PAs over 3 years and the fact that he is 26 and hasn't been called up yet. The people who think he will be good are basing it off of his actual very minor league numbers in his career, as well as having seen him play. If anything, he should at least be given the chance to prove himself with some consistent playing time before you write him off.

I'm also confused as to your feelings on him. You bad-mouthed him all thread and then in your last post said he has a chance to be a 2 WAR player (despite saying earlier he wouldn't be a 2 WAR player).

This season I'd peg him for about 1.5 WAR at true talent. More down the road, I'm thinking he can be a 2 win player. Sorry, should have made that clear - 2012 Gamel is below average, peak Gamel is about average. And I miss the part where calling him that is trashing him. Cost-controlled league average players are good, I mean, by definition that means 15 or so teams don't have a starter as good as yours and you couldn't pay your starter less if you tried.

I think you also missed the point on my "homer" comment. If we took a hypothetical poll on Brewer prospects' peak seasonal WAR on this forum, then compared that to notable outside baseball writers (fangraphs, baseballprospectus, keith law, whoever else), I bet the latter are closer. Brewer fans overrate their players all the time (other fanbases do too and there is nothing wrong with it, but it still makes their opinions less reliable IMO).

 

[gregmag]

When did I say anyone's opinion matters. And whether they do or not, it doesn't mean that the opinions aren't right or wrong. If the only opinions worth discussing are the opinions that matter, we should immediately shut this site down.

That's like me saying, "the sky is red" and you calling me an idiot. Then I say, "Oh who cares it's not like it matters!"

Well, clearly you were trying to support your argument by posting a random quote from somebody who might appear to have some credibility. So, obviously you think his opinion matters in the context of this discussion. Obviously there are those who prefer to stick with Gamel this season and those who think we need to upgrade and some who think Gamel has no future. Count me as somebody who thinks he still has a future, and we should give a chance while being open minded to an upgrade but not necessarily pursuing one. I'd much rather put time and resources into signing Barmes, bringing Ramirez to play 3rd or upgrading pitching.

The sky can look red sometimes, I rarely call people idiots, and if I did, it really shouldn't matter to you.

He does have credibility - he gets paid to write about baseball. He's also someone objectively looking at Gamel instead of some blatant Brewer homer. If all I had to go on with a player was Matt Klassan's opinion and BF.net's collective opinion, I'm taking Klassan's.

I also don't get how I don't think Gamel has a future. He has a chance to be a 2 WAR player - that's good! That's a valuable piece that I'm excited to have. And the fact that you would "not necessarily pursue" an upgrade for your baseball team is insane. It's like saying, "Well, we could make the team better, but...nah".

And, as for your plan, why Gamel over Taylor Green? That makes 0 sense to me

 

So let's see if I have this straight. Everybody who disagrees with you, whatever their basis for disagreeing -- and people have certainly made a bunch of different arguments about why you may be seriously underestimating Gamel -- is a "blatant Brewer homer." Because, in order to think Mat Gamel is better than you think he is, someone would have to be a "blatant Brewer homer." Because you're right. That's a neat trick: call people who disagree with you a dismissive name, and it proves that you can't possibly be wrong.

 

I think, at this point, giving Mat Gamel 250 PAs' worth of regular time is probably a very good idea, simply because (a) he has no trade value at the moment (we can debate why that is) and (b) we need some offense, especially from the left side. If a clearly superior 1b option falls out of the sky, then sure, take it. But if not, see what we have in Gamel. I agree with you that our budget doesn't preclude paying some money for a 1b. But 1b's tend to be overpriced relative to their contributions (see Howard, and for that matter Fielder in three months), we have a lot of needs, and Gamel is closer to a potentially decent solution than anything we have internally at ss. If Gamel tanks, we can find a 1b in-season more easily than we could find a lot of other things. On balance, I think giving Gamel a shot is probably, as of now, a smart plan.

 

On MLEs . . . I don't know why they annoy some people so much. It's just a method of taking the air out of a player's minor league stats based on whatever knowledge we have about factors that affect the numbers (league difficulty, park, etc.). It's a calculation process, so of course it introduces possibilities of error. But unless you want to dismiss past minor league performance as a factor in predicting future major league success, MLEs provide very useful information. I would want to know more than a player's MLEs before deciding whether to give him a shot, but I would definitely want to know his MLEs.

[ramssuperbowl99]

gregmag1 wrote:

So let's see if I have this straight. Everybody who disagrees with you, whatever their basis for disagreeing -- and people have certainly made a bunch of different arguments about why you may be seriously underestimating Gamel -- is a "blatant Brewer homer." Because, in order to think Mat Gamel is better than you think he is, someone would have to be a "blatant Brewer homer." Because you're right. That's a neat trick: call people who disagree with you a dismissive name, and it proves that you can't possibly be wrong.

 

I think, at this point, giving Mat Gamel 250 PAs' worth of regular time is probably a very good idea, simply because (a) he has no trade value at the moment (we can debate why that is) and (b) we need some offense, especially from the left side. If a clearly superior 1b option falls out of the sky, then sure, take it. But if not, see what we have in Gamel. I agree with you that our budget doesn't preclude paying some money for a 1b. But 1b's tend to be overpriced relative to their contributions (see Howard, and for that matter Fielder in three months), we have a lot of needs, and Gamel is closer to a potentially decent solution than anything we have internally at ss. If Gamel tanks, we can find a 1b in-season more easily than we could find a lot of other things. On balance, I think giving Gamel a shot is probably, as of now, a smart plan.

 

On MLEs . . . I don't know why they annoy some people so much. It's just a method of taking the air out of a player's minor league stats based on whatever knowledge we have about factors that affect the numbers (league difficulty, park, etc.). It's a calculation process, so of course it introduces possibilities of error. But unless you want to dismiss past minor league performance as a factor in predicting future major league success, MLEs provide very useful information. I would want to know more than a player's MLEs before deciding whether to give him a shot, but I would definitely want to know his MLEs.

Yeah I know, it's almost like we're on a website comprised nearly exclusively of Brewers fans. [/conspiracytheory]

I don't disagree with giving Gamel a chance if we can find a 3 win SS (Barmes would be great). But there are people on here claiming that looking into Andre Ethier is foolish because we have Gamel. That's absurd. If you have a chance to upgrade, you take it. If Mat Gamel starts the season in AAA, it's almost assuredly a good thing for Brewers fans because that means we have some established MLB player in his spot.

 

[Raw Biz]

ramssuperbowl99]Yeah I know, it's almost like we're on a website comprised nearly exclusively of Brewers fans. [/conspiracytheory]

I don't disagree with giving Gamel a chance if we can find a 3 win SS (Barmes would be great). But there are people on here claiming that looking into Andre Ethier is foolish because we have Gamel. That's absurd. If you have a chance to upgrade, you take it. If Mat Gamel starts the season in AAA, it's almost assuredly a good thing for Brewers fans because that means we have some established MLB player in his spot.

Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away.

So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel.

edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.

[RockCoCougars]

Though I've wavered a bit, I keep coming to the the conclusion that it's a pretty simple equation here:

 

Gamel + many millions > most of the realistic acquisition targets

 

I'd rather use the surplus money to shore up the left side of the infield & bench/ resign the bullpen arms than sign a 'guy' based on what he has done or his potential. I honestly can't see Gamel's starting at first single-handedly pulling down Brewer contention hopes. If Gamel isn't pulling his load midseason, and the team is in contention, that's when you go out and try to get a bat in my view.

 

Maybe Melvin will pull another rabbit out of his hat and surprise us with a big bat at 1b, but at this point, I think you have to give Gamel his shot once and for all.

[Mike]

I must admit I have been very entertained with the debate over Gamel and where he may play defensively or at all. I have no dog in the fight so to speak, so I'll give what I believe is an objective opinion. Lots of you want to give him a chance to start in 2012 depending on salaries of others acquired and assuming the Brewers are not down on him. I agree under certain conditions that he could start, so here they are:

1B only for Gamel, assuming No Prince and Hart is not moved to 1B.

No 3B for Mat under any circumstance. Leave that to Green and/or McGehee. Perhaps Hairston depending on other moves.

No RF for Gamel. He is not capable of playing the position. Why switch Hart and Gamel? It puts two guys in two unfamiliar positions.

If Hart is traded because Prince was re-signed thereby acquiring more money, then again no Gamel in RF. Morgan or Schafer do not work in RF either. They are CF only similar to Mat being only a 1B. Gindl would be the only in-house RF soloution with Hairston potentially in RF.

If Hart is traded because so much money went to Prince, then some combination of either Gamel, Schafer, Gomez and Morgan (probably 2 of them) could be dealt for a RH RF option. The problem to me is Morgan, Gomez and Schafer are all CF only, so at least one has to go. Perhaps packaging one of them with another prospect and/or P would yield a fine RF.

If Prince is moved, then I give Gamel 1B and keep Corey in RF. This would allow the extra dollars saved capable of going after a FA SS.

One of my points is that lots of guys on lots of teams rub management the wrong way from time to time. The old addage if he can hit they will find a spot for him may be truer than ever for Gamel and Morgan. If they don't, they may not play. Only Melvin and his cronies will be able to decide.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Yeah I know, it's almost like we're on a website comprised nearly exclusively of Brewers fans. [/conspiracytheory]

I don't disagree with giving Gamel a chance if we can find a 3 win SS (Barmes would be great). But there are people on here claiming that looking into Andre Ethier is foolish because we have Gamel. That's absurd. If you have a chance to upgrade, you take it. If Mat Gamel starts the season in AAA, it's almost assuredly a good thing for Brewers fans because that means we have some established MLB player in his spot.

Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away.

So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel.

edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.

Barmes is a plus defensive SS and Gamel is an unknown quantity defensively as a 1B. For the record, people aren't contributing WAR on offense or defense, all of those stats are measured against the average, then total replacement value is the 20 runs or 20 wins per 650 PAs.

Anyway, let's say Gamel is scratch with the bat, which is what you meant to say (since 0 BRAA + replacement adjustment = 2 WAR). And let's say, because we have no idea how good he is at 1B, he's scratch there too.

0 BRAA + 0 UZR/DRS - 12.5 runs for 1B positional adjustment + 20 runs for replacement adjustment = 0.75 WAR

In order for him to be a 2 win player, he'd need to be a 5 run defender and contribute 7.5 BRAA. That would mean raving reports about his defense, which aren't there, or he's going to completely go off at the plate, to the tune of 12.5 BRAA. Which is about Jay Bruce, Brian McCann, Andre Ethier, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, JJ Hardy, and Nelson Cruz territory. Yeah, good luck with that.

And calling a guy a 1.5 WAR player with a 2 WAR ceiling is not "hating" on him. Nor is saying the organization shouldn't look to upgrade on that player. He's not a superstar and he's almost assuredly not going to be a superstar. The sooner BF.net gets that through it's head, the better.

[Raw Biz]

Yeah I know, it's almost like we're on a website comprised nearly exclusively of Brewers fans. [/conspiracytheory]

I don't disagree with giving Gamel a chance if we can find a 3 win SS (Barmes would be great). But there are people on here claiming that looking into Andre Ethier is foolish because we have Gamel. That's absurd. If you have a chance to upgrade, you take it. If Mat Gamel starts the season in AAA, it's almost assuredly a good thing for Brewers fans because that means we have some established MLB player in his spot.

Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away.

So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel.

edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.

Barmes is a plus defensive SS and Gamel is an unknown quantity defensively as a 1B. For the record, people aren't contributing WAR on offense or defense, all of those stats are measured against the average, then total replacement value is the 20 runs or 20 wins per 650 PAs.

Anyway, let's say Gamel is scratch with the bat, which is what you meant to say (since 0 BRAA + replacement adjustment = 2 WAR). And let's say, because we have no idea how good he is at 1B, he's scratch there too.

0 BRAA + 0 UZR/DRS - 12.5 runs for 1B positional adjustment + 20 runs for replacement adjustment = 0.75 WAR

In order for him to be a 2 win player, he'd need to be a 5 run defender and contribute 7.5 BRAA. That would mean raving reports about his defense, which aren't there, or he's going to completely go off at the plate, to the tune of 12.5 BRAA. Which is about Jay Bruce, Brian McCann, Andre Ethier, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, JJ Hardy, and Nelson Cruz territory. Yeah, good luck with that.

And calling a guy a 1.5 WAR player with a 2 WAR ceiling is not "hating" on him. Nor is saying the organization shouldn't look to upgrade on that player. He's not a superstar and he's almost assuredly not going to be a superstar. The sooner BF.net gets that through it's head, the better.

For the record, WAR isn't a universally-calculated stat like BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all have different ways to calculate it. I was using baseball-reference and they list an offensive WAR and defensive WAR. Since they listed Barmes at a 1.4 oWAR for last year (with a .244/.312/.386 line), I figured Gamel should be able to get a 2 oWAR. Granted, SS was a pretty poor position for offense last year but I still think Gamel will be able to produce relative to his 1B counterparts as Barmes did to his SS counterparts.

[TheCrew07]

I've never understood all the Gamel bashing around here. It was obvious Macha's staff didn't like him and leaked a ton of negative press about him through TH and JSO, but the dude can hit. Once Melvin extended Hart and settled on and then tried to extend McGehee, where was Gamel going to play? His attitude might really suck, I don't know him personally, but seriously, where was he going to play? I've never been in favor of calling up a talent like him to be a bench player, why waste service time while waiting for an opportunity to play? It drove me nuts when Hart sat behind Mench who was just awful.

 

Gamel's defensive issues at 3rd are more a reflection on the organization's development priorities than on the player, he has all the natural tools to be an excellent 3B. What player have the Brewers brought up since Hardy (a natural) who was a good defender? Look at the list... Hart, Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Lucroy, Escobar... Escobar had all the tools to be a great defender and came into that role this year. Lucroy has made decent strides, but he's maybe average as a C. What minor leaguer has made great improvement from one year to the next from a defensive standpoint in our system? Gennett is still a terrible defender, Lawrie was a terrible defender, Green isn't a plus defender, Gamel wasn't a good defender... Cain (a natural) was a plus defender and if he's not manning CF for KC next year something will be wrong.

 

Ohh, Cain will be 26 next year, but I guess his age and lack opportunity means that he won't be a productive MLB player either? Axford was 26 when he got his first shot for the Brewers as well.

 

I've been arguing for a long time that the Brewers need more talent so they could make decisions based on talent over the long-term, rather than making decisions based almost purely from a cost standpoint. Cain didn't get a shot because the organization invested in Gomez, then he got his shot when Gomez was so awful that the organization didn't have a choice and performed well only to be traded to another organization to get stuck behind Cabrera who had a career year.

 

I don't want to rehash what a horrible job I think the organization has done cycling talent, but sometimes a player's opportunity is a more a function of what's in front him and decisions made beyond a player's control than a reflection on his true talent. How posters on this forum have only wanted to acquire veterans because they wanted to compete for the playoffs? How many posts in any of the various threads on this forum are about acquiring young inexperienced talent? Where's any history of Melvin building around inexperienced youth? He was forced to early in Milwaukee just because of how talented the players were that Jack Z had drafted, but that's about it.

[TooLiveBrew]

How many posts in any of the various threads on this forum are about acquiring young inexperienced talent?

 

Quite a lot, at this point. It's not like that's some super-secret formula anymore.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Is this what the Gamel-hate has been about? Because one guy said he didn't want Ethier and his salary? I think everything being equal, a lot of people would take Ethier over Gamel. However, once you factor in Ethier's contract compared to Gamel's, along with the fact that we'd have to give something up to get him, I'd still take Gamel. And even with the state of the Dodgers being what it is, they aren't just going to give a guy like Ethier away.

So obviously if there is a chance to upgrade, you do it. However, I don't think giving up prospects and having to pay Ethier likely $10+ mil is worth the slight upgrade. And yes I think Ethier would only be a slight upgrade over Gamel.

edit: I'm also confused again as to how you think Barmes will be a 3 WAR player (which he's only done once, although it was last year) but you don't think Gamel can be a 2 WAR next year. If Barmes was a 1.5 WAR on offense last year, I think Gamel should be able to be a 2.

Barmes is a plus defensive SS and Gamel is an unknown quantity defensively as a 1B. For the record, people aren't contributing WAR on offense or defense, all of those stats are measured against the average, then total replacement value is the 20 runs or 20 wins per 650 PAs.

Anyway, let's say Gamel is scratch with the bat, which is what you meant to say (since 0 BRAA + replacement adjustment = 2 WAR). And let's say, because we have no idea how good he is at 1B, he's scratch there too.

0 BRAA + 0 UZR/DRS - 12.5 runs for 1B positional adjustment + 20 runs for replacement adjustment = 0.75 WAR

In order for him to be a 2 win player, he'd need to be a 5 run defender and contribute 7.5 BRAA. That would mean raving reports about his defense, which aren't there, or he's going to completely go off at the plate, to the tune of 12.5 BRAA. Which is about Jay Bruce, Brian McCann, Andre Ethier, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, JJ Hardy, and Nelson Cruz territory. Yeah, good luck with that.

And calling a guy a 1.5 WAR player with a 2 WAR ceiling is not "hating" on him. Nor is saying the organization shouldn't look to upgrade on that player. He's not a superstar and he's almost assuredly not going to be a superstar. The sooner BF.net gets that through it's head, the better.

For the record, WAR isn't a universally-calculated stat like BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all have different ways to calculate it. I was using baseball-reference and they list an offensive WAR and defensive WAR. Since they listed Barmes at a 1.4 oWAR for last year (with a .244/.312/.386 line), I figured Gamel should be able to get a 2 oWAR. Granted, SS was a pretty poor position for offense last year but I still think Gamel will be able to produce relative to his 1B counterparts as Barmes did to his SS counterparts.

oWAR includes the positional adjustment, so that would mean Gamel would need to be .6 better than Barmes, plus the SS adjustment, plus the 1B adjustment, which is about 2.6 oWAR in total. Once again, the comps for something like that are Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Gonzalez, and other players who are just quite simply miles better than Mat Gamel.

[Raw Biz]

Barmes is a plus defensive SS and Gamel is an unknown quantity defensively as a 1B. For the record, people aren't contributing WAR on offense or defense, all of those stats are measured against the average, then total replacement value is the 20 runs or 20 wins per 650 PAs.

Anyway, let's say Gamel is scratch with the bat, which is what you meant to say (since 0 BRAA + replacement adjustment = 2 WAR). And let's say, because we have no idea how good he is at 1B, he's scratch there too.

0 BRAA + 0 UZR/DRS - 12.5 runs for 1B positional adjustment + 20 runs for replacement adjustment = 0.75 WAR

In order for him to be a 2 win player, he'd need to be a 5 run defender and contribute 7.5 BRAA. That would mean raving reports about his defense, which aren't there, or he's going to completely go off at the plate, to the tune of 12.5 BRAA. Which is about Jay Bruce, Brian McCann, Andre Ethier, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, JJ Hardy, and Nelson Cruz territory. Yeah, good luck with that.

And calling a guy a 1.5 WAR player with a 2 WAR ceiling is not "hating" on him. Nor is saying the organization shouldn't look to upgrade on that player. He's not a superstar and he's almost assuredly not going to be a superstar. The sooner BF.net gets that through it's head, the better.

For the record, WAR isn't a universally-calculated stat like BA, OBP, SLG, etc. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus all have different ways to calculate it. I was using baseball-reference and they list an offensive WAR and defensive WAR. Since they listed Barmes at a 1.4 oWAR for last year (with a .244/.312/.386 line), I figured Gamel should be able to get a 2 oWAR. Granted, SS was a pretty poor position for offense last year but I still think Gamel will be able to produce relative to his 1B counterparts as Barmes did to his SS counterparts.

oWAR includes the positional adjustment, so that would mean Gamel would need to be .6 better than Barmes, plus the SS adjustment, plus the 1B adjustment, which is about 2.6 oWAR in total. Once again, the comps for something like that are Josh Hamilton, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Gonzalez, and other players who are just quite simply miles better than Mat Gamel.

Hamilton - 3.4 (7.2 in 2010)

Teixeira - 2.5

Gonzalez - 3.0 (5.2 in 2010)

I'm not really sure why Teixeira is so low with 39 HR and 111 RBI. Probably cuz his OPS was .835 (with avg under .250). Anyway, you just upped that number to 2.6 and I'm not sure why since the original talk was about Gamel being a 2.0. And you keep throwing out names that Gamel obviously won't compare to, 2 of which don't even play 1B. However, I will throw some 1B out there that I think he could compare to.

Hosmer - 2.3

Freeman - 1.7

Goldschmidt - .6 (in 177 PA so about 1.8-2.0 in full season)

I don't think he'll hit for as much avg as Hosmer or maybe even Freeman (I see Gamel around .270). He also won't put up as many HR as Hosmer did but I see him right around 20. He'll probably get on base about the same as the others, around .340. Then I think he'll slug around .460 for a nice OPS around .800, which is where all three of those guys wound up. Gamel is a few years older than these 3 but I also think that gives him a bit of an edge with more experience. Ultimately, Hosmer will most likely be better than Gamel (Freeman and Goldschmidt might wind up better too) but I think the seasons they had last year are about what we can expect from Gamel.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

[quote author=rawbecht wrote:

[/b]Hamilton - 3.4 (7.2 in 2010)

Teixeira - 2.5

Gonzalez - 3.0 (5.2 in 2010)

I'm not really sure why Teixeira is so low with 39 HR and 111 RBI. Probably cuz his OPS was .835 (with avg under .250). Anyway, you just upped that number to 2.6 and I'm not sure why since the original talk was about Gamel being a 2.0. And you keep throwing out names that Gamel obviously won't compare to, 2 of which don't even play 1B. However, I will throw some 1B out there that I think he could compare to.

Hosmer - 2.3

Freeman - 1.7

Goldschmidt - .6 (in 177 PA so about 1.8-2.0 in full season)

I don't think he'll hit for as much avg as Hosmer or maybe even Freeman (I see Gamel around .270). He also won't put up as many HR as Hosmer did but I see him right around 20. He'll probably get on base about the same as the others, around .340. Then I think he'll slug around .460 for a nice OPS around .800, which is where all three of those guys wound up. Gamel is a few years older than these 3 but I also think that gives him a bit of an edge with more experience. Ultimately, Hosmer will most likely be better than Gamel (Freeman and Goldschmidt might wind up better too) but I think the seasons they had last year are about what we can expect from Gamel.

You said he might be 2 WAR with the bat. Those guys had about 20 BRAA. And the reason Tex is so low isn't because he was good with the bat, it's because he's a 1B! He loses 12.5 runs because of that.

If you think Gamel is going to have an OPS 80 points above league average, more power to you. But that 80 point difference is the same as the difference between your projected Gamel line and Robinson Cano.