outfielders

[Baldkin]

So, you want to trade a prospect and pay a guy 12M to give you the production Gamel more than likely would for league minimum? Or are you gonna move Gamel to SS?

[ramssuperbowl99]

So, you want to trade a prospect and pay a guy 12M to give you the production Gamel more than likely would for league minimum? Or are you gonna move Gamel to SS?

Gamel is "more than likely" a 2.5 win player this upcoming season? News to me.

(Keep in mind, I did Ethier's projected WAR figuring below average defense in RF. He's probably closer to 3 wins as an above average 1B.)

 

[Baldkin]

So, you want to trade a prospect and pay a guy 12M to give you the production Gamel more than likely would for league minimum? Or are you gonna move Gamel to SS?

Gamel is "more than likely" a 2.5 win player this upcoming season? News to me.

(Keep in mind, I did Ethier's projected WAR figuring below average defense in RF. He's probably closer to 3 wins as an above average 1B.)

 

I don't think it's doubtful that Gamel can put up numbers somewhere near James Loney (.288, .339, .416) with above average defense at 1B. Once again, if you're blowing 12M on a 1B, who is going to be your league minimum SS?

[ramssuperbowl99]

So, you want to trade a prospect and pay a guy 12M to give you the production Gamel more than likely would for league minimum? Or are you gonna move Gamel to SS?

Gamel is "more than likely" a 2.5 win player this upcoming season? News to me.

(Keep in mind, I did Ethier's projected WAR figuring below average defense in RF. He's probably closer to 3 wins as an above average 1B.)

 

I don't think it's doubtful that Gamel can put up numbers somewhere near James Loney (.288, .339, .416) with above average defense at 1B. Once again, if you're blowing 12M on a 1B, who is going to be your league minimum SS?

Doesn't need to be a league minimum SS, the Brewers have more than $12 M to spend both now (because of the playoff run) and later (because of a new TV deal).

Clint Barmes would be my choice.

And FWIW, major league equivalents put Mat Gamel's 2011 at .247/.296/.408 in Milwaukee. Andre Ethier's career line is .291/.364/.479 despite playing in a pitcher's park. They aren't that close to one another.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I'm sorry, I put in PA instead of AB in the calculator. It's actually .273/.324/.450. Once again, not really close to Ethier, even if it is a decent line with above average defense.

[monty57]

which I'd settle for if, as DHonks noted, Hart would still lose the extra 20 pounds of bulk he's put on b/c his offensive game has NOT improved since he's done so, but his defense & especially his speed have definitely worsened.

 

Hart OPS

2008: .759

2009: .753

 

lot of offseason discussion about Hart being done. Hart mentions new training regimen and adding weight, plus something about his father being harder on him than any fan could ever be

 

2010: .865

2011: .866

 

Whether it's the extra muscle, or simply his ability to lay off the low-and-away slider, he's certainly increased his offensive production.

 

FWIW, major league equivalents put Mat Gamel's 2011 at ... It's actually .273/.324/.450. Once again, not really close to Ethier, even if it is a decent line with above average defense.

 

Mat Gamel hit for a .310/.372/.540/.912 line last year at Nashville and .309/.387/.511/.898 line as Nashville in 2010. What the heck does a player have to do for an MLE to show that they'd be a good pro hitter?

[ramssuperbowl99]

which I'd settle for if, as DHonks noted, Hart would still lose the extra 20 pounds of bulk he's put on b/c his offensive game has NOT improved since he's done so, but his defense & especially his speed have definitely worsened.

 

Hart OPS

2008: .759

2009: .753

 

lot of offseason discussion about Hart being done. Hart mentions new training regimen and adding weight, plus something about his father being harder on him than any fan could ever be

 

2010: .865

2011: .866

 

Whether it's the extra muscle, or simply his ability to lay off the low-and-away slider, he's certainly increased his offensive production.

 

FWIW, major league equivalents put Mat Gamel's 2011 at ... It's actually .273/.324/.450. Once again, not really close to Ethier, even if it is a decent line with above average defense.

 

Mat Gamel hit for a .310/.372/.540/.912 line last year at Nashville and .309/.387/.511/.898 line as Nashville in 2010. What the heck does a player have to do for an MLE to show that they'd be a good pro hitter?

Hit better than Mat Gamel did. Taylor Green's MLE line is a much better .292/.358/.483.

[monty57]

Hit better than Mat Gamel did. Taylor Green's MLE line is a much better .292/.358/.483.

 

In 2011, there were 3 Intl League and 15 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. In 2010 there were 3 Intl League and 10 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. If you need to hit better than Gamel in order to be an above average hitter in the majors, very few players currently in the minors will be above average MLB hitters.

 

I've heard a lot of people state that MLE isn't accurate on an individual level. However, if the MLE is an accurate predictor, we would be looking at offense from 2012 Gamel somewhere around what Derrek Lee or Gaby Sanchez provided in 2011.

[NievesNoNO]

Mat Gamel hit for a .310/.372/.540/.912 line last year at Nashville and .309/.387/.511/.898 line as Nashville in 2010. What the heck does a player have to do for an MLE to show that they'd be a good pro hitter?

Agreed. I'm excited to finally see what Gamel can do when given a legit chance. I wouldn't trade Hart but if Hart was moved to 1st I'd try and sign David DeJesus. I'd then move Gamel back to 3rd.

[TheCrew07]

MLEs.... whatever.

 

How about we give a kid a chance to play before we make definitive claims about what their MLB production will be.

 

 

I despise the MLE argument with a passion, it's just a standard deduction based on historical averages, and no 2 players are the same.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Hit better than Mat Gamel did. Taylor Green's MLE line is a much better .292/.358/.483.

 

In 2011, there were 3 Intl League and 15 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. In 2010 there were 3 Intl League and 10 PCL players with a .900+ OPS. If you need to hit better than Gamel in order to be an above average hitter in the majors, very few players currently in the minors will be above average MLB hitters.

 

I've heard a lot of people state that MLE isn't accurate on an individual level. However, if the MLE is an accurate predictor, we would be looking at offense from 2012 Gamel somewhere around what Derrek Lee or Gaby Sanchez provided in 2011.

What you meant to say is that there are very few players currently in the PCL and International League who will be above average hitters. And this is true.

And TheCrew07 has it right, which is why I started the whole discussion with "for what it's worth". Though the guy who stated that his expectations were to get 2.5 WAR out of Gamel is crazy. Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Mark Trumbo, and a ton of other 1B can speak otherwise. In fact, only Joey Votto, Garrett Jones and Ike Davis broke the 2.5 WAR mark as 1B in recent years(unless you count Buster Posey, which you shouldn't). It's really hard to come into the big leagues and have success immediately. It's even harder to do it when you're 26 years old, won't be given a long leash, and the organization has pretty much done everything it can to make it clear they don't like you.

Gamel is probably a 1.5 win player next season based on true talent. Not bad, but not Andre Ethier or a number of other targets the Brewers could go after.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Mat Gamel hit for a .310/.372/.540/.912 line last year at Nashville and .309/.387/.511/.898 line as Nashville in 2010. What the heck does a player have to do for an MLE to show that they'd be a good pro hitter?

Agreed. I'm excited to finally see what Gamel can do when given a legit chance. I wouldn't trade Hart but if Hart was moved to 1st I'd try and sign David DeJesus. I'd then move Gamel back to 3rd.

Why? He can't play 3rd. The Brewers tried everything they could to get him to stick there and he didn't.

[TheCrew07]

Gamel is probably a 1.5 win player next season based on true talent. Not bad, but not Andre Ethier or a number of other targets the Brewers could go after.

Gamel is 2 WAR player with his bat alone, he's league average (depending on the position), unless he completely tanks which seems unlikely. I have no problem projecting him to hit over .260, OBP over .330, and SLG over .440. Those are extremely conservative numbers and he'd still put up a .770 OPS. He could easily provide positive value with his glove as well which is something Fielder has never done. He's an above average talent all the way around, he may never be a super star, and he certainly may tank, but he's twice as talented as a guy like McGehee and I for one would like to see him get a full time gig in Milwaukee for 2012.

 

I'd rather not put him in the OF, 1B would be a better destination. I'm not fond of the position musical chairs the organization has played with Hart and I'd rather not see Gamel transition out there as well.

[Mike]

I agree with rams99. Gamel has been tried at 3B so why do it again? It is clear he belongs at 1B or in the AL as DH.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Gamel is probably a 1.5 win player next season based on true talent. Not bad, but not Andre Ethier or a number of other targets the Brewers could go after.

Gamel is 2 WAR player with his bat alone, he's league average (depending on the position), unless he completely tanks which seems unlikely. I have no problem projecting him to hit over .260, OBP over .330, and SLG over .440. Those are extremely conservative numbers and he'd still put up a .770 OPS. He could easily provide positive value with his glove as well which is something Fielder has never done. He's an above average talent all the way around, he may never be a super star, and he certainly may tank, but he's twice as talented as a guy like McGehee and I for one would like to see him get a full time gig in Milwaukee for 2012.

 

I'd rather not put him in the OF, 1B would be a better destination. I'm not fond of the position musical chairs the organization has played with Hart and I'd rather not see Gamel transition out there as well.

No idea how you are getting that he's 20 runs above average with the bat. Rickie Weeks was at 18 BRAA this year. Tex was at 22. Josh Hamilton was at 20. Carlos Gonzalez was at 23. Mat Gamel is a nice piece to have, but he doesn't come close to those guys.

Also, I think Gamel will be a nice defensive 1B, but most posters here are acting like it's a foregone conclusion. We don't know that he's a +5 1B, or even that he's a scratch 1B. He hasn't had much experience there, and even though teams are liable to stick a guy like Fielder or Carlos Lee there, being a good defensive 1B takes time.

And, quite frankly, if he was an above average talent, he would have been dealt by now. The organization clearly doesn't like him and Gamel would have been deemed valuable enough by someone else to force the Brewers' hand.

 

[NievesNoNO]

And, quite frankly, if he was an above average talent, he would have been dealt by now. The organization clearly doesn't like him and Gamel would have been deemed valuable enough by someone else to force the Brewers' hand.

 

Gamel still being in the organization is 0 indication of his talent level. The Brewers have butchered the handling of Gamel, imo. He needs to be given a chance to play, and actually he put a pretty respectable line in 2009, when he was up for about a half season. I'd stick him at 1B to start the season without reservation. It's his time to sink or swim. I'd say there's more data supporting he'll hit just fine as opposed to not.

Why? He can't play 3rd. The Brewers tried everything they could to get him to stick there and he didn't.

 

I don't really want him there either, but the original post referenced moving Hart to 1B if we acquired a RF. I don't like that option, but if those were 1st two moves I'd move him to 3rd. I'd put him back at 3rd before I put him in RF. He's played like 7 seasons of minor league ball at 3rd hasn't he? I would've hoped they would've figured out he has no chance to play over there before last season if he's truly horrible there. I'm not saying he can or can't play 3rd. I guess the data says he's not all that good, but I thought I remember somebody indicating alot of his problems were throwing and not actually fielding the ball.

[ramssuperbowl99]

NievesNoNO]

And, quite frankly, if he was an above average talent, he would have been dealt by now. The organization clearly doesn't like him and Gamel would have been deemed valuable enough by someone else to force the Brewers' hand.

 

Gamel still being in the organization is 0 indication of his talent level. The Brewers have butchered the handling of Gamel, imo. He needs to be given a chance to play, and actually he put a pretty respectable line in 2009, when he was up for about a half season. I'd stick him at 1B to start the season without reservation. It's his time to sink or swim. I'd say there's more data supporting he'll hit just fine as opposed to not.

Why? He can't play 3rd. The Brewers tried everything they could to get him to stick there and he didn't.

 

I don't really want him there either, but the original post referenced moving Hart to 1B if we acquired a RF. I don't like that option, but if those were 1st two moves I'd move him to 3rd. I'd put him back at 3rd before I put him in RF. He's played like 7 seasons of minor league ball at 3rd hasn't he? I would've hoped they would've figured out he has no chance to play over there before last season if he's truly horrible there. I'm not saying he can or can't play 3rd. I guess the data says he's not all that good, but I thought I remember somebody indicating alot of his problems were throwing and not actually fielding the ball.

Gamel being in the minors until his age 27 season at best is clearly an indication of his talent level. How can you possibly say otherwise? If he was talented enough to barge down the door and force Milwaukee's hand, he would been dealt because someone else would have given him a shot and given up something valuable to get him. While there are exceptions to the 22-24-26 rule, they are usually guys who have had their development curbed by playing a different sport, going to college for 4 years, or being so extraordinarily toolsy that it takes them a long time to build up the required hand eye coordination to succeed. Gamel is none of these things.

He's played 7 seasons of minor league ball at 3B because the organization was desperate for him to work out there because of Prince Fielder's presence. It didn't, which is why he was moved. And you might not say that he "can or can't play 3B", but I will. He can't. It's like sticking Mark Kotsay in CF.

 

[RockCoCougars]

I think that Gamel has been a victim of bad timing/luck and his perceived 'issues'. McGehee came from nowhere and blocked him, he was Machaed, injuries, etc. I don't think his exile to AAA is solely due to his talent- offensively at least. I compare this situation somewhat to Gorman Thomas, who really didn't get an opportunity to play every day until he was (coincidentally) 27. They seem to be on fairly similar career paths- hype, early struggles, friction with managers, exile to minors, 'issues', etc. Gorman was even traded away as part of an under the table agreement with Texas to keep him in the organization after he was out of options and Dalton/Bamberger decided to give him a shot.

[ramssuperbowl99]

RockCoCougars]I think that Gamel has been a victim of bad timing/luck and his perceived 'issues'. McGehee came from nowhere and blocked him, he was Machaed, injuries, etc. I don't think his exile to AAA is solely due to his talent- offensively at least. I compare this situation somewhat to Gorman Thomas, who really didn't get an opportunity to play every day until he was (coincidentally) 27. They seem to be on fairly similar career paths- hype, early struggles, friction with managers, exile to minors, 'issues', etc. Gorman was even traded away as part of an under the table agreement with Texas to keep him in the organization after he was out of options and Dalton/Bamberger decided to give him a shot.

Even if you say the Brewers stashed him at AAA since 2010, that puts him in the majors as a 25 year old. Not exactly a 22 year old stud.

[NievesNoNO]

I think that Gamel has been a victim of bad timing/luck and his perceived 'issues'. McGehee came from nowhere and blocked him, he was Machaed, injuries, etc. I don't think his exile to AAA is solely due to his talent- offensively at least. I compare this situation somewhat to Gorman Thomas, who really didn't get an opportunity to play every day until he was (coincidentally) 27. They seem to be on fairly similar career paths- hype, early struggles, friction with managers, exile to minors, 'issues', etc. Gorman was even traded away as part of an under the table agreement with Texas to keep him in the organization after he was out of options and Dalton/Bamberger decided to give him a shot.

Even if you say the Brewers stashed him at AAA since 2010, that puts him in the majors as a 25 year old. Not exactly a 22 year old stud.

Well, at age 22, he was considered a top 20-25 prospect in the game so yes he was a 22 year old stud who never got a legit chance for whatever reason. I'll concede he probably shouldn't play 3rd and he might not ever end up an elite player. However, I think he's being dismissed by some as not an option to play 1B this season for some reason when he's likely a better option than almost anyone we could bring in via FA.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I think that Gamel has been a victim of bad timing/luck and his perceived 'issues'. McGehee came from nowhere and blocked him, he was Machaed, injuries, etc. I don't think his exile to AAA is solely due to his talent- offensively at least. I compare this situation somewhat to Gorman Thomas, who really didn't get an opportunity to play every day until he was (coincidentally) 27. They seem to be on fairly similar career paths- hype, early struggles, friction with managers, exile to minors, 'issues', etc. Gorman was even traded away as part of an under the table agreement with Texas to keep him in the organization after he was out of options and Dalton/Bamberger decided to give him a shot.

Even if you say the Brewers stashed him at AAA since 2010, that puts him in the majors as a 25 year old. Not exactly a 22 year old stud.

Well, at age 22, he was considered a top 20-25 prospect in the game so yes he was a 22 year old stud who never got a legit chance for whatever reason. I'll concede he probably shouldn't play 3rd and he might not ever end up an elite player. However, I think he's being dismissed by some as not an option to play 1B this season for some reason when he's likely a better option than almost anyone we could bring in via FA.

"Whatever reason" is code for utter lack of defensive improvements (since those rankings have him improving his defense and becoming a steady defender at 3B, not as a 1B), a hidden injury that he didn't mention, and never really dominating AAA like a top prospect would be expected when repeating the level (wRC+ of 128 and 122 are nice, but not otherworldly).

And he's not an elite player. He's not going to be. He's a 1B. Here are some 1B/DH who are either almost assuredly going to end up better than him or already are:

Pujols, Fielder, A-Gonz, Tex, Miguel Cabrera, Votto, Hosmer, Freeman, Belt, Montero, Billy Butler, Alonso, Morse, Konerko, and probably a bunch more that I missed.

If "almost everyone we can bring in via FA" means we only look at 1B candidates, don't pursue any trades and generally don't try overly hard to bring in a better player. Then maybe. Gamel has a chance to be a 2 win 1B. That's a useful piece, but not the kind of player who is above trying to upgrade if possible.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Fangraphs' Matt Klassen:

Comment From Mark Thoughts on what Milwaukee does with Gamel? http://cdnsl.coveritlive.com/templates/coveritlive/images/icons/fb_share2.png

12:17

Matt Klaassen: I'm not sure what they will do with him. They do not seem to have much faith in his abilities -- I know that I would not count on him as a major-league 1B unless it was for a rebuilding team who could afford to give a guy like him a long look. He's not all that young, and he's not all that good.

[NievesNoNO]

"Whatever reason" is code for utter lack of defensive improvements (since those rankings have him improving his defense and becoming a steady defender at 3B, not as a 1B), a hidden injury that he didn't mention, and never really dominating AAA like a top prospect would be expected when repeating the level (wRC+ of 128 and 122 are nice, but not otherworldly).

And he's not an elite player. He's not going to be. He's a 1B. Here are some 1B/DH who are either almost assuredly going to end up better than him or already are:

Pujols, Fielder, A-Gonz, Tex, Miguel Cabrera, Votto, Hosmer, Freeman, Belt, Montero, Billy Butler, Alonso, Morse, Konerko, and probably a bunch more that I missed.

If "almost everyone we can bring in via FA" means we only look at 1B candidates, don't pursue any trades and generally don't try overly hard to bring in a better player. Then maybe. Gamel has a chance to be a 2 win 1B. That's a useful piece, but not the kind of player who is above trying to upgrade if possible.

I don't think its inconceivable that Gamel ends up as good as the players on the last half of your list. Heck, Morse was in the same position Gamel is now and never hit minor league pitching as well as Gamel has. I'm not against trying to upgrade ANY position but 1B just wouldn't be at the top of my list as I feel the cost to make a sure significant upgrade in terms of either dollars or prospects could be used elsewhere. I like Either as much as the next guy. If LA would trade him straight up for Gamel I'd certainly consider that move. Would that 10-12 million paid to Either hinder us from improving at SS, 3B or from keeping the bullpen stable? I'm not sure. It would just be nice to have Gamel step up and pencil him in at 1B at a nice cost for the next few years seeing he's already on the roster.

[monty57]

Gamel being in the minors until his age 27 season at best is clearly an indication of his talent level.

 

Is that what they said about Ryan Howard when he was stuck behind Thome?

 

I don't envision Gamel as a superstar, but he has hit well at every level of the minors, and apparently is a decent fielding 1B. He was not a good defensive 3B, and Casey coming along stuck him in AAA, when the other positions he could potentially play were filled with All Stars (Fielder, Braun, Hart). The Brewers have known Fielder was going to be gone at some point (most thought after last off-season), so keeping Gamel made more sense than trading him. The Brewers did think enough of Gamel that they made him untouchable in the Sabathia trade.

 

I would rather use the limited monetary resources the team will have this offseason to fill the positions where we don't have someone ready to step in, which are SS and the bullpen. Why spend millions on someone like Ethier if it means Kam Loe is our setup guy or Maysonet is our SS while Gamel rots away in AAA?

[Roderick]

Then maybe. Gamel has a chance to be a 2 win 1B. That's a useful piece, but not the kind of player who is above trying to upgrade if possible.

Tack on another adjective to useful: inexpensive. The Brewers need to have one or two prearby players come up and produce annually to offset the proven high-cost veterans.