Why all the doom and gloom?

[RockCoCougars]

Reading some of last night's IGT was incredibly depressing. You would think the series was over after last night. I don't know if the blowout caused this or the fact that people are putting way too much stake in home field advantage. Do people really think it's likely the Brewers will get swept in St. Louis? All that it will take is one win down there to 'regain home field'- which I don't think is that huge of a deal in baseball. Going fuirther, did I miss something and Carpenter is now unhittable or something? The guy is right at 250 innings pitched this year, and the Brewers always have hit him pretty well. I don't fear Lohse or Garcia either. Maybe I'm reaching here, but if the Brewers can avoid putting guys on base for Pujols and then serving up fat pitches right down the middle, I think they take two of three. Outside of Freese no one else in that lineup has really done too much except for some mostly weak base hits and walks.

[Bikeage77]

THANK YOU. I just had a similar conversation with a guy I work with. I think they might reconsider Marcum starting again this series, but I don't know if Narveson can do much better. I'm excited to see how this will shake out, but I do think it's important that if we only need one win to come home, it doesn't happen in the third game there. By then they might have lost their confidence being down 3-1.

[TooLiveBrew]

John Jay has had a good series, beyond just weak hits. Neither Berkman nor Holliday has done much, but you could make the case that it's more likely they heat up than remain ice-cold. And Furcal is a good hitter who has mashed Brewers pitching this season.

 

I hear you on thinking losing 3 in a row in St. Louis is incredibly unlikely, though. I think the fact that no starter aside from Gallardo has stepped up is what has people worried.

[RockCoCougars]

One thing people are overlooking is that neither of the St. Louis starters have made it out of the fifth either. Think that shady bullpen will be a little taxed by Thursday? It's not like the Crew has Suppan, Looper, Parra as the scheduled starters for the next three games. If they can beat Ian Kennedy twice, I think they can get Carpenter. Neither Lohse or Garcia inspire any fear in me whatsoever.

[H4P]

I think the fact that no starter aside from Gallardo has stepped up is what has people worried.

 

Agreed. The pitching staff as a whole outside of Gallardo is worrrisome. It seems that no matter who is pitching, there are runners all over the place. On top of that, I think there's a general expectation that Milwaukee will collapse at key times. It's something, as fans of Brewers basesball, we've seen way too many times.

 

Personally, I'm going to remain optimistic and enjoy the ride. I've watched enough playoff baseball to know that it only takes a few breaks and a few guys getting hot to trun a series around.

[Patrick425]

One thing people are overlooking is that neither of the St. Louis starters have made it out of the fifth either. Think that shady bullpen will be a little taxed by Thursday? It's not like the Crew has Suppan, Looper, Parra as the scheduled starters for the next three games. If they can beat Ian Kennedy twice, I think they can get Carpenter. Neither Lohse or Garcia inspire any fear in me whatsoever.

Yeah, I think LaRussa is about the only manager I can think of that could figure out a way to use 7 different pitchers in a 12-3 win.

[jeffy]

Yes, for me it is the disappearance of good starting pitching, aside from Gallardo, that makes me think they will have a hard time winning this series. The other starters all seemed to falter in September and it has carried in to Oct.

 

While I don't think they will get swept in St. Louis, if they lose 2 of 3, then it become two must win games back at home.

 

If they win one in St. Louis, perhaps game 6 should be 2 innings each for Marcum, Narveson, Estrada, then an inning each for Hawkins, Saito, K-Rod, Ax?

[Oxy]

Yeah, nobody likes to get trounced, but it's still just one game. The pitchers that got rocked last night for the Crew are not the meat of this staff, and will not be relied upon again to win games (outside of 1 start by Marcum, Narveson, or Estrada). Had Saito, K-Rod and Axford blown the game I'd be far more concerned. Our best, most reliable guy is pitching in the next game. Carpenter is great, but who else on the entire St. Louis pitching staff are you afraid of? Anybody? The Crew's offense has been getting guys on base up and down the lineup (despite failing in some key moments last night) and our superstars are mashing.

 

All in all, the Brewers are still in a far better spot than the Cards, ESPECIALLY if they can beat Carpenter tomorrow night. I wouldn't want to rely upon Lohse, Garcia and Jackson to win 2 out of 3 games for you. I suppose the same could be said if Carpenter wins tomorrow night in regards to Greinke, Wolf and Marcum/whoever, but I'll still take our guys, especially with the back end of our bullpen.

 

Fans will be overly emotional though in both directions. After the first two games of the ARI series it was near unfathomable that we might lose the series, but we almost did. I'm going to enjoy the ride no matter what. Heck, even if we drop the next 2 games we could win the last 3. It's just the way baseball is.

[lukevan]

Yep, the Brewers looked bad last night but we shouldn't be afraid to play in St. Louis. If this was just a regular season three game set, we would be expecting to get at least one and fairly confident in our chances to get two of three. If we get two, we have two shots at home to make the World Series.

[monty57]

Thanks for the post RockCo. I listened to WTMJ on the ride home from last night's game, and all the callers seemed to think the world was ending. We're tied 1-1 in the series. We won 96 games this season. We have a pretty good team. St Louis is also a pretty good team, or else they wouldn't be here. Either team could win the series, but I'm certainly not ready to give up because of one blowout loss.

 

Pujols is a great player, and he's the one who beat us last night. That could just as easily be Fielder or Braun going 4-for-5 tomorrow against Carpenter.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's doom and gloom (some would call it being realistic) because at least one of the starting pitchers has allowed 30 runs in his last 33 innings yet Roenicke plans to use him again and another got rocked in his last start and we have no idea what we'll get from him. We've seen this before (2008) and that didn't end well either.

[Polish Falcons]

I guess my observation is that the in game thread was like that all season long. Pretty much every time the 96 win Brewers lost it was all doom and gloom for a handful of posters. Now that we are in the playoffs, it is just magnified

 

I agree last night’s game was very disappointing but that a loss is a loss. As frustrating as the game was to watch, going forward, it doesn’t really matter if they lost 12-3 or 5-4. All the upcoming games in St Louis are winnable, and this is a very evenly matched series. I also am not as down on Marcum as other people. He made terrible pitches to Pujols but aside from the homerun the other 4 runs Marcum gave up could’ve been avoided with better defense. In the first inning John Jay scored after reaching base on a bunt single which I believe Marcum would have handled and made an out on 9 times out of 10. He made a very rushed throw that wasn’t necessary. Then Edwin Jackson had a bloop single in the 3rd which I believe Morgan should’ve caught whether that was done by holding onto the ball or not playing so unnecessarily deep. Corey Hart also missed a catchable pop fly in foul territory that inning. Those misplays led to two runs. So, Marcum could’ve escaped that game allowing 1 or 2 runs rather than 5 and then it would be a totally different conversation. The 7 pile on runs that the Cards scored after Marcum left the game don’t really indicate anything going forward, because they were all allowed by pitchers who wouldn’t even see playing time in a close game. The Brewers also caught bad breaks on offense with Braun’s ground rule double and the umpire blowing a call on Rickie Weeks double play. Those bad breaks in the bottom of the 5th cost the Brewers at least 2 runs and possibly more. This amounts to a lot of excuses but I guess what I’m trying to say is that it was a winnable game and that people shouldn’t turn the unfortunate results of 1 game, in a 7 game series, and turn that into a discussion about this being Prince’s last game in Milwaukee or how to collect a refund on their parking ticket for game 6.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree. The amount of hand wringing after one loss is, quite frankly, rather ridiculous. Going back through the IGT, I hate to say it, but I think some posters were almost trolling with their negative comments. If we had also lost the first game of the series, would people be participating in ritualistic suicides today? You would think so, judging by the reactions of some "fans".

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really think that Game 3 will be the pivotal game in this series. If Yo can out-pitch Carpenter and get us a huge road win, I think we'll have a great chance to come back home up 3-2. If that happens, I think we for sure win this series. I don't see St. Louis coming in and winning both games in Milwaukee. Yo gets the win, and then we just have to beat with Lohse or Garcia. It can be done!

[CheezWizHed]

I wasn't going to bring this up, but since it fits in this thread...

 

I had a dream last night that Gallardo was trounced (like 7-0) and the Cards went up 3-1 with 2 more games in Stl. (Hey, I didn't say it made sense, but it was my dream). It was real enough that I awoke agitated and a little depressed.

 

I had to keep reminding myself that the series is tied 1-1 and that Gallardo has been pitching great before I could go back to sleep.

 

Thankfully, I'm no prophet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[bucks2281]

I'm a little worried. If I were forced to bet on this series, I'd put my money on St. Louis. Several reasons:

 

a.) The Brewers are giving Pujols too much to hit.

b.) RR managed yesterday's game like it was April 23.

c.) We're playing St. Louis and they are, quite frankly, the luckiest team in baseball. I know it's not a rational reason, they always seem to catch the breaks.

 

I believe we'll have another game in Milwaukee, but I am concerned about the rest of the series.

[gregmag]

I wouldn't say gloom and doom, but I've been worried for quite a while that the Cardinals just have the superior team. In the lineup, I think they have the edge at every position except 2b and LF. I like our rotation better in theory, but Marcum is clearly gassed, and you don't know what you're going to get from Wolf. I like our bullpen a little better, but they have five guys who throw hard and a very good LOOGY. They've been trending strong since August, and nothing has really slowed their momentum, whereas we've been cooled off for a while. Also, LaRussa is evil, but he's like prime Darth Vader evil; he knows what he's doing.

 

Tomorrow is huge, because their rotation is very mortal after Carpenter and Jackson. If our best can beat their best in St. Louis, then I think we have a good chance to win the series. If not . . . well, we could still win it, because we have a good team, baseball involves lots of tricky variables, and somehow I'm expecting a big game from Greinke. But I think it would be extremely tough to win three of four.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm really worried we're going to be down 3-1. You can call it doom and gloom, but I just honestly see that happening. As good as Yo has been, I just have this feeling Carp will be dominant. Then in Game 3, I see no reason why Wolf won't get hammered again. Sorry if that sounds negative, but that's why I thought Game 2 was huge.

 

RR make me feel better by flipping Wolf/Yo, but I know that will never happen. I just don't understand why you wouldn't want a clear advantage in ONE game, rather than having a disadvantage in both games. Because at that point, 2-2, I will feel a lot better.

[BrewerTerp]

first team to four wins. both teams are tied at one win. seems to me like there is still a lot in play here.

 

in my opinion, i think folks are panicking because they aren't used to rooting for the brewers as the favorite and it doesn't appear like we are going to cruise to an easy win. well guess what, there are no easy wins in the playoffs in any sport.

 

just enjoy the ride. we could win and we very well could lose. either way, no one should be miserable when the brewers are playing october baseball.

 

i think we win in 6.

[TheCrew]

The vibe on this board has been glass half empty, even after the win against AZ - Don't really get it either.

 

Brewers almost always play well in Stl - don't expect this to be any different. This series will go 6 or 7.

[NievesNoNO]

I like the optimism RockCo. I agree; if we win just one game we're coming back to Milwaukee. There are some that will not be happy or optimistic no matter what the team does. The series is over, Roenicke is an idiot, Melvin is horrible, we should've never traded for Marcum, etc, etc. Mostly, I think people are just craving wanting to see this team win it all. My father in-law asked me if I had anything riding on the series. I told him yes, a lifetime of watching, listening, and waiting.

 

We're three wins from the World Series. I don't see any way that the Cards sweep us in St. Louis so I'm expecting it to come back to Milwaukee all on the line.

[Raw Biz]

I'm really worried we're going to be down 3-1. You can call it doom and gloom, but I just honestly see that happening. As good as Yo has been, I just have this feeling Carp will be dominant. Then in Game 3, I see no reason why Wolf won't get hammered again. Sorry if that sounds negative, but that's why I thought Game 2 was huge.

 

RR make me feel better by flipping Wolf/Yo, but I know that will never happen. I just don't understand why you wouldn't want a clear advantage in ONE game, rather than having a disadvantage in both games. Because at that point, 2-2, I will feel a lot better.

Because it's not a clear disadvantage in both games. Yes Yo has been knocked around a bit in his career against the Cards but he's also been pretty dominant the past month. And we've gotten to Carpenter before. And Lohse/Wolf match up pretty even to me as well. Both can be knocked around but when both are on, they can be pretty damn good too. If Yo were to start game 4 instead of 3, and this thing went 7, that game would be Carpenter v. Wolf. Would you really feel good about that matchup? I know you have to win the games to get there but I really think they can take 1 of games 3 or 4 and possibly even 5.

[dlk9s]

My guess is the doom and gloom is mostly because our starting pitching has been dreadful in the playoffs outside of Yo.

[rluzinski]

When you put too much weight on recent performance, you are often going to be wildly optimistic or unnecessarily pessimistic. The result of this series is probably a coin flip.

make me feel better by flipping Wolf/Yo, but I know that will never happen. I just don't understand why you wouldn't want a clear advantage in ONE game, rather than having a disadvantage in both games. Because at that point, 2-2, I will feel a lot better.

In terms of maximizing wins, it doesn't really matter.

[Yeti73]

I'm sure this isn't the predictions thread, but I can see us taking a 5-4 win vs Carpenter, losing 9-0 to Lohse and then a toss up versus Jaime who may bounce back well. That said, it wouldn't shock me if we didn't come back to play in Milwaukee until the WS. I doubt we'd beat Texas (just imagine what they'd do to a grooved pitch from Zack/Wolf/Marcum), but I still believe we can get through this. We know this team so well and they know us. It'll boil down to effort, luck and shrewd moves. I think we win on effort, lose on shrewdness so just need some luck.

 

Keep in mind, Carp has been pushed really hard the last month (including two complete games his last three times out--seriously, why leave him in for 9 innings in an 8-0 blowout vs Houston?????) and as dominant as he's been, we all remember what a pitcher ridden hard can do if he's our of gas (CC vs the Phillies). This is a guy that we've hit hard 4 of the last 6 outings. I think we have about a 50/50 chance of winning tomorrow.