Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?

[Raw Biz]

Hart had the 29th best OPS in MLB last year. Anyone who thinks he can be easily replaced is simply incorrect. He is Hunter Pence on offense, a few runs worse on D.

It's not simply replacing Hart. It's a combo of SS and RF. I think Reyes and whatever option in RF is better than Hart and whatever option at SS. The dropoff between Reyes and the other SS is greater than Hart and other OFs. I also think Hart's numbers will start to decline quicker than the average player, due to his body frame, specifically his height. And there's also the fact that he's said he's uncomfortable hitting 5th, which is where he should be at next year (I don't know what the numbers show but he did seem to hit better at leadoff this year).

[Raw Biz]

I just want to compare two players last 3 seasons:

(BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)

Weeks:

2009: 272/340/517/857

2010: 269/366/464/830

2011: 269/350/468/818

Reyes:

2009: 279/355/395/750

2010: 282/321/428/749

2011: 337/384/493/877

 

Very very similar, Weeks has more power and Reyes, last year, had his BABIP jump by 40 points over his career average. Looking at this, I just can't see the justification for paying Reyes 20 million a season. Or more than 11 or 12 million a season. I just don't see him as more than a .750-800 OPS SS (valuable? Yes. Just not 18-20M valuable, imo) going forward. Not an .850-900 OPS SS.

But there really aren't any SS with those OPS numbers. Reyes has been top 5/6 in OPS among SS almost every year he's played, including 3 top 3 appearances. I wouldn't give him 20/yr but I would be tempted to offer 15-17/yr, depending on length.

[logan82]

I think we should expect Reyes to be around average or a little below on defense for next year.

[Oldcity]

The problem with signing Reyes is then they don't have the money to extend Greinke.

[kramnoj]

I think that gets repeated without much serious analysis. I guess it depends on what Reyes signs for and what Greinke wants for an extension, but it wouldn't be impossible to get them both in the budget.

 

It just means that the Brewers need to rely on cheap players at quite a few positions. They will have cheap production at catcher for a few years, if they go with Green and Gamel at the corners they will be cheap there for years, CF in 2012 will be moderate, and could be cheap for years afterwards. It means relying on pitchers from the farm and cheap FA pickups to fill out the bullpen. It means replacing Wolf in 2013 with a farmhand. It means replacing Hart with a young OF when his contract is up.

 

The Brewers would have to hit on nearly all their young players that are close for it to work, and most of those players probably project to be more average than stars. It's definitely a risk, but I think it's best to take risks on players who are All Star caliber rather than fill the holes with veteran FAs.

[nate82]

The problem with signing Reyes is then they don't have the money to extend Greinke.

I prefer the Brewers to have positional players on long term deals than pitchers especially if it is going to be more than $15m a year. Greinke is going to get a 6 or 7 year deal at about the same money Reyes is going to get annually and I am not sure that is something the Brewers should do with a pitcher.

[dadofandrew]

There are only two types of pitchers, those who have had arm/shoulder surgery or those who will have arm/shoulder surgery. I'd much rather sign a position player long-term than a pitcher.

[Oldcity]

Okay, it's nice to use catchy sayings, but Greinke profiles as the type of pitcher you'd like to extend. He's still fairly young, has been durable, and still performs at a high level. If he was on the open market he'd be the top pitcher available, easily.

[nate82]

Okay, it's nice to use catchy sayings, but Greinke profiles as the type of pitcher you'd like to extend. He's still fairly young, has been durable, and still performs at a high level. If he was on the open market he'd be the top pitcher available, easily.

That still doesn't mean the Brewers should go after someone like that. I love Greinke but I don't believe the Brewers should lock him up for a long term contract especially at something like $15-20m a year. I agree that Greinke is the best pitcher the Brewers have to lock up long term that isn't named Gallardo but that doesn't mean the Brewers should give a long term deal to Greinke. Yes you would like to extend him but only if the price is right and I believe giving someone like Greinke or any other pitcher that type of money is just not a smart move for the Brewers to make. It is more safer to give someone like Reyes a deal in the $15-20m a year range than a pitcher. You are going to get more production out of someone like Reyes versus someone like Greinke.

[TooLiveBrew]

Greinke's such a good athlete, I think that's what makes me ok with the idea of a long-term deal. I'd say out of current 40-man guys, only Gomez, Plush, Braun, Weeks, Faris, & Schaefer are faster than him.

 

Also, the Brewers.com article titled "Mum on Reyes" has me thinking he's a very serious target at this point. I may have to eat my words on him... but I guess I still think someone is going to be willing to go that one extra year for him over whatever the Brewers are comfortable with. I'd guess Melvin would hesitate to go more than four seasons, & five would be his cutoff if he's 100% sold on Reyes.

 

The leak about the Madson contract negotiations is cool because you can see that teams are definitely able to spend. Iirc I saw one piece online that thought Fielder could get up to something like 8 yrs./$190M or thereabouts. I don't think that's likely, but the indication right now is that the money is there this offseason.

[TheCrew]

I'm not trying to compare Hart to Braun or Fielder - we all know who the worst player is in that bunch. I'm just trying to say that Hart has been an 8 win player over the past 2 seasons. And the fact that he makes $9 M this year is hardly a burden given that his production is worth nearly $20 M per season.

I see on the games played. So SS's on the DL are more valuable than RFs on the DL, especially when that SS is likely making double (and triple the contract length) of the RF. That makes sense.

Martin Prado isn't a RF (doesn't have the arm) and doesn't hold a candle to Corey Hart offensively. And we save about $4 M dollars in the process. That's a terrible trade since between Taylor Green, Casey McGehee, Rickie Weeks, Jose Reyes, JHJ and Ryan Braun, we'd be trading Hart for a guy to ride our bench.

Jason Kubel can't play RF since his ankles don't work. He's out. That and the fact that offensively he doesn't compare to Hart either (his wOBA is about 40 points lower).

Cuddyer's wOBA doesn't really compare to Hart's either (.329 in 2010 and .354 in 2011 versus .369 and .373). And with -10 DRS in his past 1100+ defensive innings in right, he's not a defensive upgrade over Hart either (Hart is -2 DRS in his career and was +1 this year despite how bad he looks sometimes).

Still waiting on those RFs who we can replace Hart with.

I could care less how many wins fangraphs says he is worth. The simple fact is, it's much easier to replace a RF of his talent level than it is to find anyone close to Reyes talent level than can play solid defense at SS.

 

As for Prado, I find it odd you want to call Hart an 8 win player but then ignore it when the same site had Prado as a 7.6 win player from 2009-2010 - yes, he did have a down year last year (in part due to a staph infection) but he's a prime bounce back candidate and would be a great fit given his versatility on defense. The same site you quote Hart as an 8 win player lists Prado as an extremely good OF'er, so not sure on the weak arm comment......... as for Prado "not holding a candle" offensively; I think you need to check the numbers again. Only thing Hart does better is hit HR's - during 2009/2010 Prado was 5th in BA and only Braun and Fielder had more doubles during that time, one could argue that he was better offensively.

 

The guy doesn't hit many HR's, but he hits for average, doesn't strike out much and plays plus defense at multiple positions........ what's not to like?

 

Someone also mentioned his salary as being $6 million next season - unlikely, he made $3.1 million last year and had a down season. $4.5-$5 seems more likely and if the Brewers were willing to ship out Hart, I'm sure they could find a 3rd team to get involved since the Braves are also shopping Jurrens (sp?)......

 

I'm not going to spend a great deal of time on it to look up all the FA outfielders or possible trade targets - I really didn't think anyone would even argue that a free agent SS + Corey Hart is better than Reyes + free agent RF/return from Corey Hart or Randy Wolf trade.

 

I'm not saying we need to shop Hart or that his salary is a burden - but if they need to free up $10 million or so, he'd be a likely trade candidate as he'd be attractive and they could get something of value back. Whether that is to fill 3b or RF or a 4th starter if they shop Wolf too............... there is room to get creative there. I'd also have no qualms if it was Wolf (rather than Hart) that had to go............. Reyes is worth it imo.

[HiAndTight]

The problem with signing Reyes is then they don't have the money to extend Greinke.

Sure they do. Greinke would be a FA after next year, after their new TV deal kicks in adding 20 million dollars in additional revenue to the Brewers.

[HiAndTight]

Okay, it's nice to use catchy sayings, but Greinke profiles as the type of pitcher you'd like to extend. He's still fairly young, has been durable, and still performs at a high level. If he was on the open market he'd be the top pitcher available, easily.

Exactly. And it's also woefully inaccurate. Plenty of pitchers have gone through their careers without major shoulder/elbow injuries. And with the season Greinke's coming off of, it's the perfect time to give him a Weaver like extension.

 

I've made this point on other boards, but the Brewers ended up in the low 90's in payroll this year.

 

They ended up drawing 3.4 million, or thereabouts. That's an additional 14 million using their average ticket prices. Throw in additional revenue from parking, the record they set in merchandising sales, and the 20 million they've got coming the year after(which would be Greinke's first year in his new deal, and they've got plenty of money.

 

According to forbes, they made roughly 11 million dollars last year when they also spent well into the 90's when you consider Hall and Suppan's dead money.

 

With guys like Schafer, Green, Gamel, Ginld, Maldanado coming up, that's 3 potential starters in CF, 3B and 1B, all of whom project to be at least average players, and potentially well above average defensively as a trio(I think Gamel's going to be a GG caliber defender at 1st) the Brewers can afford to spend in some other areas.

 

Not to mention they've got a lot of pitching coming up. Rogers is a giant question mark, but he and Braddock could both bounce back next year and be key back of the pen type arms. Manzanillo, Fiers and others could also help out the pen.

 

And everyone knows about the half dozen or so pitchers who are very close to being ready. Scarpetta pitched well all things considered in AA next year and may be a candidate with a nice year in AAA cutting down on the walks, Peralta is ready now, Thornburg is on PACE to be a big contributor, Rivas profiles as the ideal swing man, Jungman and Bradley are also two high ceiling guys.

 

 

So the additional revenue, the pitching that's close, and the players we have due to make the league minimum make signing Reyes and Greinke very realistic. Not to mention an IF of Green/Reyes/Weeks and Gamel is a huge improvement defensively, Maldanado as your backup catcher is a big upgrade defensively, and Schafer is a poor mans Steve Finley IMO, minus the power.

 

 

I've been predicting the last 2 years that the Brewers would be capable of spending 20 million dollars once the new TV deal kicks in. Now with the increased ticket prices and the massive increase in revenue from this past year, coupled with the fact that the worst we've done in the last 5 years, even while spending 90+ million on a couple of occasions is net 10.7 million according to Forbes magazine, I think we've been conditioned to expect the Brewers to be a little more cash strapped than they should be in upcoming years.

[endaround]

I'm not saying we need to shop Hart or that his salary is a burden - but if they need to free up $10 million or so, he'd be a likely trade candidate as he'd be attractive and they could get something of value back. Whether that is to fill 3b or RF or a 4th starter if they shop Wolf too............... there is room to get creative there. I'd also have no qualms if it was Wolf (rather than Hart) that had to go............. Reyes is worth it imo.

The point is he isn't going to free up $10m unless you go with like a Morgan/Murton platoon which weakens CF and RF. All other options don't save any real money. Pardo is going to be paid like the decent 3B he is instead of a poor corner OFer. Cuddyear could easily end up getting more money than Hart given the terrible FA market. Trading Wolf is easier since there are a few in house options but it would decrease the Brewers pitching depth a ton. The Brewers have 8 starting options (Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson, Estrada, Fiers, and Peralta) and likely all 8 will start at some point. Its likely one of those 8 will miss significant time next year.

[TheCrew]

Hart is set to make 9 million this next season - You think Prado's salary will double this next season, I think it'll be about 1.5x's his salary from last season. Split the difference and call it 5.25 - That move alone is saving close to 4 million. Dumping Loe and McGehee (which I suggested if that move were made) would also save additional $ - the Brewers should also be able to get some salary relief if they trade Hart with his attractive contract.............I'm not going to work every single detail as if I'm the GM.

 

I used Cuddyer as an example - it's why I also mentioned Kubel - DM could be patient and pick someone up later in FA at a bargain rate to play 1B or provide power from RF or he could roll with Gamel and also keep McGehee..... would leave 3 options at 3B with JHJ/Prado/McGehee with Prado and possibly JHJ getting time in RF.......... I also mentioned the Braves shopping Jurrens, they could possibly look at getting him in a deal with Prado for Hart which would make Hart expendable, although last I read the Braves asking price was pretty high and they were looking for prospects.........

 

The point is, there are options out there to free up $10 million if they really want to go after Reyes and I'd have no qualms if it meant sacrificing Hart. All I was saying.

[ramssuperbowl99]

TheCrew wrote:

As for Prado, I find it odd you want to call Hart an 8 win player but then ignore it when the same site had Prado as a 7.6 win player from 2009-2010 - yes, he did have a down year last year (in part due to a staph infection) but he's a prime bounce back candidate and would be a great fit given his versatility on defense. The same site you quote Hart as an 8 win player lists Prado as an extremely good OF'er, so not sure on the weak arm comment......... as for Prado "not holding a candle" offensively; I think you need to check the numbers again. Only thing Hart does better is hit HR's - during 2009/2010 Prado was 5th in BA and only Braun and Fielder had more doubles during that time, one could argue that he was better offensively.

 

The guy doesn't hit many HR's, but he hits for average, doesn't strike out much and plays plus defense at multiple positions........ what's not to like?

 

Someone also mentioned his salary as being $6 million next season - unlikely, he made $3.1 million last year and had a down season. $4.5-$5 seems more likely and if the Brewers were willing to ship out Hart, I'm sure they could find a 3rd team to get involved since the Braves are also shopping Jurrens (sp?)......

 

I'm not going to spend a great deal of time on it to look up all the FA outfielders or possible trade targets - I really didn't think anyone would even argue that a free agent SS + Corey Hart is better than Reyes + free agent RF/return from Corey Hart or Randy Wolf trade.

 

I'm not saying we need to shop Hart or that his salary is a burden - but if they need to free up $10 million or so, he'd be a likely trade candidate as he'd be attractive and they could get something of value back. Whether that is to fill 3b or RF or a 4th starter if they shop Wolf too............... there is room to get creative there. I'd also have no qualms if it was Wolf (rather than Hart) that had to go............. Reyes is worth it imo.

You know how many career games Martin Prado has in RF? 1. He's not a RF. And I can't believe we are in an era where people still use batting average. There is nothing otherwordly about Prado's .350 OBP and .450 SLG. He's a decent player who, when he plays 2B or 3B can rack up some value. But he's not a RF.

Still waiting on those RFs who can replace Hart.

 

[TheCrew]

879 innings in the OF the past 3 seasons with a total UZR of 9.3 for Prado - most of those innings are in left, but considering that this guy can play above average defense just about everywhere else on the diamond............ I can't see him struggling in RF defensively. I suggested using him along with Hairston and possibly signing a cheaper FA option - I think one of Kubel or Cuddyer will last and will sign a shorter deal for around $5 million per.

 

I wouldn't play a specific player everyday in RF either - probably a lot of late game shifts/substitutions. Having 2 versatile plus defenders in Hairston and Prado would be a nice luxury - signing one of Kubel/Cuddyer would give you power and another option at 1B should Gamel falter. That flexibility defensively would be pretty darn nice and would also bolster the bench.

 

You cherry picked 2 stats when comparing Cuddyer and Hart - I could do the same back to you to suggest Cuddyer is a better player....... not really worth my time to suggest other players if that is what you want to do..........................and again, I'm not saying go replace Hart with Cuddyer or Prado. Just saying I'm ok with it if this was done in order to get Reyes.

[ramssuperbowl99]

879 innings in the OF the past 3 seasons with a total UZR of 9.3 for Prado - most of those innings are in left, but considering that this guy can play above average defense just about everywhere else on the diamond............ I can't see him struggling in RF defensively. I suggested using him along with Hairston and possibly signing a cheaper FA option - I think one of Kubel or Cuddyer will last and will sign a shorter deal for around $5 million per.

 

I wouldn't play a specific player everyday in RF either - probably a lot of late game shifts/substitutions. Having 2 versatile plus defenders in Hairston and Prado would be a nice luxury - signing one of Kubel/Cuddyer would give you power and another option at 1B should Gamel falter. That flexibility defensively would be pretty darn nice and would also bolster the bench.

 

You cherry picked 2 stats when comparing Cuddyer and Hart - I could do the same back to you to suggest Cuddyer is a better player....... not really worth my time to suggest other players if that is what you want to do..........................and again, I'm not saying go replace Hart with Cuddyer or Prado. Just saying I'm ok with it if this was done in order to get Reyes.

Martin Prado is literally not a RF. He's played 1 game their his entire career. It's like suggesting sticking Casey McGehee in RF.

Kubel can't play RF either, he's had major surgery in each ankle and has essentially been limited to a DH since.

Cuddyer is not really a RF at this point either. His DRS puts him at -16 during his past 2,000 innings and his UZR is in agreement. Combine that with Hart is unquestionably a better bat an you have a substantially worse player. And, FWIW, Cuddyer isn't getting a 1 year $5 M deal - he's clearly getting more than that in terms of both salary and years. In fact, I'd expect him to be more expensive than Hart in terms of total value.

And find those stats that say Cuddyer is a better player than Hart. Please do. The only thing I ask is that you need to use at least a 600 PA sample size - so no 2, out, RISP BA on sunny Wednesday's with the teams #1 pitcher on the mound type useless, unpredictive crap.

[TheCrew]

LOL - I stopped reading after you said it would be like sticking McGehee in RF. I'm all for a debate and it's fine if you don't agree with someones point a view....... I actually enjoy it when someone else shows me a different POV on this site - but I'm not going to waste any time with someone who is going to make asinine statements like that.

[ramssuperbowl99]

LOL - I stopped reading after you said it would be like sticking McGehee in RF. I'm all for a debate and it's fine if you don't agree with someones point a view....... I actually enjoy it when someone else shows me a different POV on this site - but I'm not going to waste any time with someone who is going to make asinine statements like that.

Career games for Martin Prado in RF - 1

Career games for Casey McGehee in RF - 0

Neither are RFs. And the Twins you mentioned aren't really RFers either. Kubel's ankles don't work and Cuddyer is terrible there.

[TheCrew]

So Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because Casey McGehee has 0 career starts in RF.

 

That's some sound logic right there........

[ramssuperbowl99]

So Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because Casey McGehee has 0 career starts in RF.

 

That's some sound logic right there........

No Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because he's never done it in his career and he doesn't have the arm.

[Raw Biz]

So Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because Casey McGehee has 0 career starts in RF.

 

That's some sound logic right there........

No Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because he's never done it in his career and he doesn't have the arm.

Just because someone has never done something in their career doesn't mean they can't do it. Everyone has never done something until they actually do it. The arm comment actually makes sense and I don't know why you didn't just use that in the first place. On the other hand, Morgan played quite a bit in RF this year and he has a noodle. I'm not saying I want Prado or even that I'd like to see Hart gone but given the choice between Reyes and someone else in RF or Hart and someone else at SS, I'd take Reyes. All of this is assuming a reasonable contract of course.

[ramssuperbowl99]

So Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because Casey McGehee has 0 career starts in RF.

 

That's some sound logic right there........

No Martin Prado is incapable of playing RF because he's never done it in his career and he doesn't have the arm.

Just because someone has never done something in their career doesn't mean they can't do it. Everyone has never done something until they actually do it. The arm comment actually makes sense and I don't know why you didn't just use that in the first place. On the other hand, Morgan played quite a bit in RF this year and he has a noodle. I'm not saying I want Prado or even that I'd like to see Hart gone but given the choice between Reyes and someone else in RF or Hart and someone else at SS, I'd take Reyes. All of this is assuming a reasonable contract of course.

I don't know who the "someone else" is, but I'd be hesitant to trade a 4 win player making $9 M to sign a 5-6 win player who will make $17 M+.

There is too much uncertainty here - what are we getting back for Hart? Who would we sign in RF (I see no one valuable on the market)? Who would we sign in SS if we traded him (Barmes would be a great sign IMO)?

That said, looking at Hart as anything but a part of the Brewers core is silly. The only reason you trade him is if you get a GREAT deal for him.

 

[RockCoCougars]

Why would you want to trade Hart for Prado just to save a few million. Coming into 2011 he was pretty comparable career wise to McGehee. He wasn't much better than McGehee last year either.