Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?

[JohnBriggs12]

There's just too much logic behind going after Reyes for it to be a bad idea (my thinking, anyway). Not that there aren't potential drawbacks, but i think the pros outweigh the cons. If they don't get him, they don't get him. But it gets hard to continue to play with the heavyweight teams if you don't ensure that you have a multiple high-impact bats.

 

It can get risky, sure. But the Brewers didn't get to a 96-win season by playing it safe. There were risks in those moves, too. But they worked and there's a good lot of momentum to the Brewers right now, which doesn't guarantee anything going forward (nothing does), but I think they have to continue approaching things by being both highly & sensibly aggressive.

Doing nothing is risky too. Remember what happened between 1992 and 1993. In 92, the Brewers won 92 games. Then in the offseason, Molitor took his talents north of the border, and Chris Bosio left as a FA. There was a lot of angst over losing Molitor of course, and to a lesser extent Bosio, but there were many fans that looked at rotation that still had youngsters Cal Eldred, Jamie Navarro, and Ricky Bones and a lineup that included Vaughn, Yount, Surhoff, and a couple of hot shot youngsters in David Nilsson and John Jaha and most figured at worst the team would slide a little. I'll never forget the marketing campaign that year, where Phil Garner bemoaned anything that was 2nd place.

 

Of course what happened is that the team sunk to 69 wins in 1993. If they don't add an impact player and next year the teams slides to under .500, there is going to be a lot of finger pointing.

[jjfanec]

I have never really thought we had a great chance to land Reyes but I do think he fits well on our team. Even if he declines as a player I think he will be easier to move than other players. Heck, how long did Tejada have a job for even after it was clear he wasnt a SS anymore. We may have to eat a little salary, but I think we are fairly protected if he declines like that. Even in his off years his OPS was good enough for top 6 in SS this year and .100 points higher than Yuni.

How is he as a fielder? I dont know a ton about him there. Does he project as being able to stay at SS long-term? Heck if Yuni still gets to play SS, Reyes has to be able to right?

We get a real leadoff man and all the sudden our first 4 or 5 in the order are set. Get a couple of the bullpen arms back and figure out what is going to happen at 1st and 3rd. I say let Green and Gamel be the guys. The improvement of Reyes from Yuni and Green over how horrible Casey was should cover the drop from Prince to Gamel. Sign Hairston as a super-utility guy. I would be happy with that team going forward

[endaround]

Before his big injury he was a plus defender. Now that he's both older and has suffered some injuries he was ranked about average last year so it could just be him getting back into playing or he could have gotten worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

Reyes always used to remind me of Rafa Furcal without the huge arm. That's not to say that Reyes has a weak arm, Furcal just has a rare gift attached to his right shoulder. I'd imagine that endaround's point that Reyes may be getting back (at least near) to his true talent on defense is probably accurate, but clearly he won't be the same guy anymore since he's aging. My guess would be that he's still an asset on defense when healthy.

[jmeks23]

There's going to be at least one trade this offseason for the Crew, and my guess is it's for either Wolf or Hart. That takes 9-10 M out of the equation, assuming you get back prospects or a much cheaper player. I also think McGehee and Loe get non-tendered since they aren't worth their pay upgrades. That should give you enough flexibility for Reyes, but I still don't know if he's worth it. Especially if he's looking for 5/100M

[endaround]

Trading Hart to sign Reyes is treading water. You sign Reyes, you go for it and that means keeping intact you All Star level outfield.

[Raw Biz]

I wouldn't be as worried about the pick since they'll be getting something for Fielder.

 

The CBA is still being negotiated, and the players want to get rid of teams giving up a pick for signing a FA. It's not a guarantee that it will exist in what agreement is reached.

I highly doubt that would go into effect until the 2012 offseason. Since the offseason has already started and teams are starting to think about whether or not to offer arby, they can't just change the rules mid-offseason.

[TheCrew]

Trading Hart to sign Reyes is treading water. You sign Reyes, you go for it and that means keeping intact you All Star level outfield.

Reyes would have way more value to this team than Hart does. While Hart's production at the plate would tough to replicate, it wouldn't be that tough to find a replacement that has fairly equal overall production. Finding anyone close to Reyes talent at SS? Not going to happen.

 

Yes, I say this while knowing Fangraphs and WAR loves Hart - but real life production leaves a lot to be desired imo. I'd have no problem taking a flier on a bounce back candidate or a lesser name if it meant landing Reyes.

[TheCrew]

I wouldn't be as worried about the pick since they'll be getting something for Fielder.

 

The CBA is still being negotiated, and the players want to get rid of teams giving up a pick for signing a FA. It's not a guarantee that it will exist in what agreement is reached.

I highly doubt that would go into effect until the 2012 offseason. Since the offseason has already started and teams are starting to think about whether or not to offer arby, they can't just change the rules mid-offseason.

Yeah, I'd agree here - no way the current negotiations effect this offseason.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Trading Hart to sign Reyes is treading water. You sign Reyes, you go for it and that means keeping intact you All Star level outfield.

Reyes would have way more value to this team than Hart does. While Hart's production at the plate would tough to replicate, it wouldn't be that tough to find a replacement that has fairly equal overall production. Finding anyone close to Reyes talent at SS? Not going to happen.

 

Yes, I say this while knowing Fangraphs and WAR loves Hart - but real life production leaves a lot to be desired imo. I'd have no problem taking a flier on a bounce back candidate or a lesser name if it meant landing Reyes.

That's right, I forgot, WAR isn't 'real life'.

Since 2010, Corey Hart has the same number of HRs as Ryan Braun. He has the same slugging percentage as Prince Fielder. He's got the same OBP as Hunter Pence.

That sure leaves a lot to be desired...

 

[kramnoj]

I wouldn't be as worried about the pick since they'll be getting something for Fielder.

 

The CBA is still being negotiated, and the players want to get rid of teams giving up a pick for signing a FA. It's not a guarantee that it will exist in what agreement is reached.

I highly doubt that would go into effect until the 2012 offseason. Since the offseason has already started and teams are starting to think about whether or not to offer arby, they can't just change the rules mid-offseason.

Here is Jayson Stark http://espn.go.com/mlb/st...step-forward-source-says

 

"The other major issue that is still unresolved is a change in

compensation for premier free agents. The union is pressing for a new

system that would either no longer require teams to give up first-round

draft picks as compensation for signing a top free agent, or would like

to reduce the number of players who would qualify as "Type A" free

agents.

Club officials and agents both believe the uncertainty

over those changes, and whether they would take effect this winter, has

had an impact on the current free-agent market."

[TheCrew]

That's right, I forgot, WAR isn't 'real life'.

Since 2010, Corey Hart has the same number of HRs as Ryan Braun. He has the same slugging percentage as Prince Fielder. He's got the same OBP as Hunter Pence.

That sure leaves a lot to be desired...

Not going to get into a WAR debate. If you want to believe Hart was a top 50 positional player in all of MLB last season, have at it.

 

All I'm saying is that it would be far easier to replace Hart with a cheaper option than it would be to find anyone close to Reyes talent........ at any price.

 

If getting Reyes means we have to trade Hart and replace him......... I've got no qualms. Hart's defense is terrible and he's missed about 50 games over the past 2 seasons....... he also hit .236 with 2 outs and RISP ( Braun .315 and Fielder .299) this past season...... I appreciate what Hart has done as a Brewer, but he can be replaced with a FA option.

[kramnoj]

Hart's defense is terrible

 

This is overstated.

 

he also hit .236 with 2 outs and RISP

 

That's Voros Law sample size. Do you really believe that is significant? If so, why? Over his career, Hart has done this

 

2 outs, RISP 339 408 365 99 22 4 19 141 9 1 38 80 .271 .348 .510 .858

[RockCoCougars]

Simply put in my view, Hart at his salary >>>> Reyes long term at an exorbitant salary.

 

In my opinion, you win with power. Take away Prince's 30-40 homers a year then dump Hart's 20-30. Assume that you use the freed up money to sign Reyes. That doesn't leave any money to sign a power bat. Even if the money was there, what free agent outfielder with power would come significantly cheaper than Hart? Look at what guys (Werth, etc.) have been getting on the open market. Hart for $9 million per is an absolute steal if you ask me. Do you trade Hart for an unproven guy to save some money?

 

With Hart gone, besides Braun and Weeks, who on the 40 man roster as it's constructed would be able to be penciled in for 20+ homers? Frankly, who could you pencil in with confidence to hit even double digit homers? As far as I can tell, there are no true power bats in the minors. Gamel may be able to get you low 20's best case, but even that could be a pipe dream. Casey could bounce back with 15-20 again, but I'm not even sure that he will be around.

[Raw Biz]

Simply put in my view, Hart at his salary >>>> Reyes long term at an exorbitant salary.

 

In my opinion, you win with power. Take away Prince's 30-40 homers a year then dump Hart's 20-30. Assume that you use the freed up money to sign Reyes. That doesn't leave any money to sign a power bat. Even if the money was there, what free agent outfielder with power would come significantly cheaper than Hart? Look at what guys (Werth, etc.) have been getting on the open market. Hart for $9 million per is an absolute steal if you ask me. Do you trade Hart for an unproven guy to save some money?

 

With Hart gone, besides Braun and Weeks, who on the 40 man roster as it's constructed would be able to be penciled in for 20+ homers? Frankly, who could you pencil in with confidence to hit even double digit homers? As far as I can tell, there are no true power bats in the minors. Gamel may be able to get you low 20's best case, but even that could be a pipe dream. Casey could bounce back with 15-20 again, but I'm not even sure that he will be around.

Then why didn't the Brewers win anything before this year? They've always been an all-power/no pitching/defense team. This year they finally got the pitching. They have a chance to upgrade significantly at defense with Reyes (not that Reyes is amazing, just that Yuni was so bad). I want to get away from the all power/no defense type players that we continue to run out there and start focusing on pitching and defense.

Nobody's really saying that Hart sucks. Just that it's easier to find a good OF than it is to find a good SS. I'm not saying we should go all in for Reyes but if we needed to trade Hart to get Reyes (at around 5/85), I would do it. Personally, I think we could keep both and trade Wolf to free up some money. Whether we could actually get Reyes for that amount is another discussion.

[ramssuperbowl99]

That's right, I forgot, WAR isn't 'real life'.

Since 2010, Corey Hart has the same number of HRs as Ryan Braun. He has the same slugging percentage as Prince Fielder. He's got the same OBP as Hunter Pence.

That sure leaves a lot to be desired...

Not going to get into a WAR debate. If you want to believe Hart was a top 50 positional player in all of MLB last season, have at it.

 

All I'm saying is that it would be far easier to replace Hart with a cheaper option than it would be to find anyone close to Reyes talent........ at any price.

 

If getting Reyes means we have to trade Hart and replace him......... I've got no qualms. Hart's defense is terrible and he's missed about 50 games over the past 2 seasons....... he also hit .236 with 2 outs and RISP ( Braun .315 and Fielder .299) this past season...... I appreciate what Hart has done as a Brewer, but he can be replaced with a FA option.

If it's so easy to replace Hart for cheaper, start listing names.

And I love how you criticize Hart's durability, then say sign Jose Reyes, who has missed 15 more games than Hart over the past 2 seasons and played in only 36 the year before that.

With men on base, Hart OPSd .850. That's damn good. But I appreciate your 50 PA sample size (where Hart also OBPd a respectable .344).

In 2010 Prince Fielder hit .212 with 2 outs and RISP. You wanted to replace him too right?

 

[TooLiveBrew]

From MLBTR:

The Marlins are meeting with Jose Reyes today, and one Mets person told John Harper of the New York Daily News the Marlins plan to offer Reyes a high-salary, three-year deal. Personally, I don't think the Marlins will limit their offers to three years.

I'm not exactly sure how reliable a "Mets person"'s knowledge of the Marlins' plans would or wouldn't be, but that's the first semi-specific contract offer rumor I think I've seen for Reyes so far this offseason. It's certainly seeming like at the very least it's going to take a while for teams to start entertaining committing real long-term offers to him.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Simply put in my view, Hart at his salary >>>> Reyes long term at an exorbitant salary.

 

In my opinion, you win with power. Take away Prince's 30-40 homers a year then dump Hart's 20-30. Assume that you use the freed up money to sign Reyes. That doesn't leave any money to sign a power bat. Even if the money was there, what free agent outfielder with power would come significantly cheaper than Hart? Look at what guys (Werth, etc.) have been getting on the open market. Hart for $9 million per is an absolute steal if you ask me. Do you trade Hart for an unproven guy to save some money?

 

With Hart gone, besides Braun and Weeks, who on the 40 man roster as it's constructed would be able to be penciled in for 20+ homers? Frankly, who could you pencil in with confidence to hit even double digit homers? As far as I can tell, there are no true power bats in the minors. Gamel may be able to get you low 20's best case, but even that could be a pipe dream. Casey could bounce back with 15-20 again, but I'm not even sure that he will be around.

You win with good baseball players, not just with power. The Orioles were 4th in baseball in HRs, the Reds had 2 fewer home runs than the Brewers this season, the Nationals and Indians each had more home runs than the 102 win Phillies did.

You don't need power, you need good baseball players. While good baseball players are often good home run hitters, that's not necessarily the case, as baseball players can provide value in a ton of ways besides the home run.

 

[nate82]

From MLBTR:

The Marlins are meeting with Jose Reyes today, and one Mets person told John Harper of the New York Daily News the Marlins plan to offer Reyes a high-salary, three-year deal. Personally, I don't think the Marlins will limit their offers to three years.

I'm not exactly sure how reliable a "Mets person"'s knowledge of the Marlins' plans would or wouldn't be, but that's the first semi-specific contract offer rumor I think I've seen for Reyes so far this offseason. It's certainly seeming like at the very least it's going to take a while for teams to start entertaining committing real long-term offers to him.

I agree I think Reyes is going to get at best a 5-year deal and whoever offers him that will get him.

[TheCrew]

If it's so easy to replace Hart for cheaper, start listing names.

And I love how you criticize Hart's durability, then say sign Jose Reyes, who has missed 15 more games than Hart over the past 2 seasons and played in only 36 the year before that.

With men on base, Hart OPSd .850. That's damn good. But I appreciate your 50 PA sample size (where Hart also OBPd a respectable .344).

In 2010 Prince Fielder hit .212 with 2 outs and RISP. You wanted to replace him too right?

 

Hey, your the one that started looking at small sample sizes when you compared Hart to Braun, Fielder and Pence. Let's look at larger sample sizes and compare those players, I'd be glad to.

 

Yup, Reyes has missed more games than Hart and is a bigger injury risk - but he plays a premium defensive position and plays it well. Not to mention he turns quite a few walks/singles into doubles throughout the season...... guy is a special talent.

 

Again, I'm not trying to rip on Hart but if we have to move him to get Reyes..... it's a no brainer to me. There are holes in Hart's game.

 

As for who I would replace Hart with - I'd try to work a trade with the Braves for Martin Prado in exchange for Hart, although that could get complicated as the Braves are looking for salary relief...... but that is the guy I would target and he is on the block. He can play the infield as well - bring Hairston back and a I already love the versatility we have off the bench as well.

 

Then I would target a guy like Kubel or Cuddyer - will probably get a $5-$6 million dollar contract...... if he lasts in FA, he could go even cheaper on a 1-2 year deal. Both those guys can play 1B/OF.

 

Dump McGehee for a prospect - let Loe walk, that would free up some additional funds as well. Could always explore the idea of trading Wolf as well (and trying to get Jurrens in the Braves package).

 

That is spending about 10 minutes thinking about it...... like I said, I don't think Hart would be the hard to replace in terms of run production. Especially if you replaced him with a plus defender like Prado.

[endaround]

But that won't save any money. Cuddyear is going to get at least $8m per and cost a draft pick. Say you get Hart for Prado with a third team involved sending prospects to the Braves. Prado will cost around $6m next season.

[ramssuperbowl99]

If it's so easy to replace Hart for cheaper, start listing names.

And I love how you criticize Hart's durability, then say sign Jose Reyes, who has missed 15 more games than Hart over the past 2 seasons and played in only 36 the year before that.

With men on base, Hart OPSd .850. That's damn good. But I appreciate your 50 PA sample size (where Hart also OBPd a respectable .344).

In 2010 Prince Fielder hit .212 with 2 outs and RISP. You wanted to replace him too right?

 

Hey, your the one that started looking at small sample sizes when you compared Hart to Braun, Fielder and Pence. Let's look at larger sample sizes and compare those players, I'd be glad to.

 

Yup, Reyes has missed more games than Hart and is a bigger injury risk - but he plays a premium defensive position and plays it well. Not to mention he turns quite a few walks/singles into doubles throughout the season...... guy is a special talent.

 

Again, I'm not trying to rip on Hart but if we have to move him to get Reyes..... it's a no brainer to me. There are holes in Hart's game.

 

As for who I would replace Hart with - I'd try to work a trade with the Braves for Martin Prado in exchange for Hart, although that could get complicated as the Braves are looking for salary relief...... but that is the guy I would target and he is on the block. He can play the infield as well - bring Hairston back and a I already love the versatility we have off the bench as well.

 

Then I would target a guy like Kubel or Cuddyer - will probably get a $5-$6 million dollar contract...... if he lasts in FA, he could go even cheaper on a 1-2 year deal. Both those guys can play 1B/OF.

 

Dump McGehee for a prospect - let Loe walk, that would free up some additional funds as well. Could always explore the idea of trading Wolf as well (and trying to get Jurrens in the Braves package).

 

That is spending about 10 minutes thinking about it...... like I said, I don't think Hart would be the hard to replace in terms of run production. Especially if you replaced him with a plus defender like Prado.

I'm not trying to compare Hart to Braun or Fielder - we all know who the worst player is in that bunch. I'm just trying to say that Hart has been an 8 win player over the past 2 seasons. And the fact that he makes $9 M this year is hardly a burden given that his production is worth nearly $20 M per season.

I see on the games played. So SS's on the DL are more valuable than RFs on the DL, especially when that SS is likely making double (and triple the contract length) of the RF. That makes sense.

Martin Prado isn't a RF (doesn't have the arm) and doesn't hold a candle to Corey Hart offensively. And we save about $4 M dollars in the process. That's a terrible trade since between Taylor Green, Casey McGehee, Rickie Weeks, Jose Reyes, JHJ and Ryan Braun, we'd be trading Hart for a guy to ride our bench.

Jason Kubel can't play RF since his ankles don't work. He's out. That and the fact that offensively he doesn't compare to Hart either (his wOBA is about 40 points lower).

Cuddyer's wOBA doesn't really compare to Hart's either (.329 in 2010 and .354 in 2011 versus .369 and .373). And with -10 DRS in his past 1100+ defensive innings in right, he's not a defensive upgrade over Hart either (Hart is -2 DRS in his career and was +1 this year despite how bad he looks sometimes).

Still waiting on those RFs who we can replace Hart with.

[Raw Biz]

Obviously we don't know if Reyes will stay healthy. However, assuming he plays about 130 games/yr, would you rather have Reyes at SS and replace Hart or Hart at RF and try to upgrade SS. I think Reyes is the clear choice. When it comes to replacing Hart, there are many options available. You could find another RF, you could move to Braun to right and find a LF, or you could move Gamel to RF and find a 1B. It's much harder to find a player like Reyes at SS.

[Baldkin]

I just want to compare two players last 3 seasons:

(BA/OBP/SLG/OPS)

Weeks:

2009: 272/340/517/857

2010: 269/366/464/830

2011: 269/350/468/818

Reyes:

2009: 279/355/395/750

2010: 282/321/428/749

2011: 337/384/493/877

 

Very very similar, Weeks has more power and Reyes, last year, had his BABIP jump by 40 points over his career average. Looking at this, I just can't see the justification for paying Reyes 20 million a season. Or more than 11 or 12 million a season. I just don't see him as more than a .750-800 OPS SS (valuable? Yes. Just not 18-20M valuable, imo) going forward. Not an .850-900 OPS SS.

[dadofandrew]

Hart had the 29th best OPS in MLB last year. Anyone who thinks he can be easily replaced is simply incorrect. He is Hunter Pence on offense, a few runs worse on D.