Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?

[Oldcity]

Barmes is probably about 3-5 runs better overall than the average SS, but he's not young and I feel he'll make far too much/too many years as well. As an OBP guy, it's really tough to like a guy who has gotten out almost 70% of the time while having home parks of Coors and Minute Maid. Also, there's just no ceiling to speak of.

But what better options are there? Who do you want for shortstop?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Barmes is probably about 3-5 runs better overall than the average SS, but he's not young and I feel he'll make far too much/too many years as well. As an OBP guy, it's really tough to like a guy who has gotten out almost 70% of the time while having home parks of Coors and Minute Maid. Also, there's just no ceiling to speak of.

But what better options are there? Who do you want for shortstop?

Exactly, people can argue all they want that Barmes isn't good and they don't want him, but who out there is better at that price level. Sure Reyes could be signed, but at a very, very high price, and with a lot more risk. Barmes will be good for the contract he'll command.

[twobrewers]

I think people will be shocked by the contract Barmes is going to receive.

 

I expect he will get at least a two year contract - likely approaching 5M a year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Jon Heyman just tweeted that he is hearing that the Brewers have pretty much given up on any hope of keeping Fielder and have shifted their focus to Reyes.

[brewmann04]

He also tweeted that The Marlins are going after Reyes and have already contacted him.

[Invader3K]

I still have a hard time believing this will happen, but it's interesting to hear a major writer connect Reyes to Milwaukee in more of an "official" sense. I don't know if we can beat out teams like the Mets and Marlins if they're really bidding on him, though.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I'm still not sure we can get him over the Marlins or Tigers, but we'll see I guess. It's interesting to know that we actually do have real interest though. It was mostly just random reports with speculation before.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I still have a hard time believing this will happen, but it's interesting to hear a major writer connect Reyes to Milwaukee in more of an "official" sense. I don't know if we can beat out teams like the Mets and Marlins if they're really bidding on him, though.

The Mets are bankrupt and have pretty much said he's not coming back. (The exact quote was "letting other teams set the market")

The Marlins are in on everyone and have said their top priority is starting pitching. To me, that says they are just doing their due diligence on Reyes.

It's pretty amazing, at least in my opinion, that the market for Reyes appears to really involve the Brewers. Who would have thought the day would ever come where we'd be talking about New York's high priced free agent prize coming to Milwaukee?

 

[CheezWizHed]

Milwaukee doesn't hold a candle to NYC (or San Fran -- also likely in the market for a SS -- , etc.), if that's a factor he'd weigh.

 

Those things are greatly a matter of opinion. Personally, no amount of money would get me to move to NYC or SF. (Now, if I were an MLB player and only had 30 markets to choose from, I wouldn't be quite so final on that, but they wouldn't be my first choices).

 

Many guys are signed by GB and comment on how they like the small-town atmosphere. For some, they go nuts if they don't have a big party scene.

[Hate those Rodents]

The Nats are about to overpay Oswalt as their big signing. Ozzie and Miami is going to sign Buehrle soon and then Ozzie wants Fielder or Pujols. SF is not going to have the money to spend from what I've read. The Mets should go with Tejada at SS and I think Alderson knows that. I'd say we are sitting pretty good with Reyes. And I think it's a smart signing for us, as I believe signing him means we'll go with Green and Gamel at first and third (which is imperative if we want to build a longer term winner).

[fondybrewfan]

The Marlins are rumored to be going after everyone including Reyes, Fielder, Pujols, and Buehrle. I have to imagine Reyes is probably #4 on that list.

 

I am not opposed to signing Reyes; but the likelihood of this turning into a bad contract 3-4 years from now seems pretty high. However in the meantime our lineup would be pretty sweet even without Fielder. Granted going from Fielder to Gamel sucks quite a bit but going from Yuni to Reyes would be glorious.

 

If you can limit it to a 5 year contract with a 6 year mutual option I say go for it even if it is understood that the last year or two could be an albatross. Obviously it comes down to the dollars though and I probably wouldn't want to pay him anymore than $16-$17M annually. The question then becomes who do the Brewers jettison so they can afford him. Obviously Marcum, Hart, and Wolf are probably the most logical options. They couldn't sign Reyes for $16M and still be able to fill the other holes while staying under $95 Million.

[I Heart Brewers]

Is it me or does it feel like the Brewers are in the Reyes discussions purely to drive up his price?

[reillymcshane]

I guess Reyes comes down to what is our payroll going to be in 2012 and beyond. Is is $80 million? $90 million? $100 million?

 

If we wanted to sign Reyes - let's say we could get him at $16 million a year - you're talking a payroll at close to $100 million. That's if you:

• Keep the rotation intact
• Cut McGehee
• Go with Green at 3B
  
• Go with Gamel at 1B
• Go with a minimum guy as 5th OF (such as Gindl)
• Sign Hairston to start against tough lefties at 3B, and to fill in for inevitable injury to Reyes
• Sign a right handed corner IF to play against tough lefties for Gamel

HITTERS

C - Lucroy - .5

C - Maldanado - .5

1B - Gamel - .5

2B - Weeks - 10

SS - Reyes - 16

3B - Green - .5

INF - Hairston - 2.5

INF - Other - 1.0

LF - Braun - 6.0

CF - Morgan - 2.0

CF - Gomez - 2.0

RF - Hart - 9.0

OF (Gindl/Schafer) - .5

 

$51 million

 

STARTING PITCHERS

Marcum - 7.0

Gallardo - 5.5

Greinke - 13.5

Wolf - 9.5

Narveson - .5

 

$36 million

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

Axford - .5

Loe - 2.5

Estrada - .5

Parra - 1.0

Fiers/Kintzler/McClendon/Dillard/Other - .5

Saito/Other - 2.0

Hawkins/Other - 3.0

 

$10 million

 

TOTAL: $97 million - if anything, I'm probably a little over, but you need a few million for in season moves, injuries, etc. That means around $100 million.

 

You could probably sustain this team beyond 2013 by only keeping one of Greinke/Marcum/Wolf. That means guys like Peralta and Fiers would have to step up after next season (or perhaps Jungmann or Bradley would be ready, but that might be asking a lot). The money you save would have to go to increases in salary of other players.

 

Ultimately, you could cut more in 2012 by trading Wolf (or perhaps Marcum). But that weakens the team quite a bit, and then you're looking at a $100 million payroll in 2013 - meaning someone else essential gets dealt (such as Hart).

 

Unless we can have a sustained payroll of $95-100 million, I don't know if Reyes is a smart move. I'd love him. He'd fit perfectly. I just don't know if he can fit in our salary structure.

[JohnBriggs12]

Trade any of the starting pitchers you don't control beyond 2012 and replace them with Peralta, Estrada or someone you get back in the deal. Pitching begets pitching. Teams wanting veteran pitching might pay with a young pitcher.

 

Want to get to $85 million? Trade Weeks and get a young 3B back, then play Green at 2B, his natural position.

 

I'm virtually certain the budget is going to be around $95 million for next year. $30 million or so will be freed up if they let Greinke, Marcum and Wolf go after this year. Some of that will go to raises for others, but enough should be left over to sign or trade for an established pitcher to fill one of those spots for 2013. I think the plan is that by 2013 to have at least 2 pre arby pitchers in the rotation. If they could have 2 and one decent veteran who's moderately priced (perhaps still Narveson), then they can splurge a little on the other spot. I think Greinke has to show them a little more though to be that guy.

[CheezWizHed]

then play Green at 2B, his natural position.

 

I thought his range was pretty limited. And his arm seems fine at 3B. What makes you think its his natural position?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I really think the Marlins are just keeping their options open. They'll try to sign a big name SP and either Pujols or Fielder first. If they fail, then they'll go for Reyes. If the Brewers come in now and make a serious offer they will have a good shot to get him. We'll see what happens I guess. I think it'll take a little while for this to play out though. Gotta wait for the market to fall into place. I think Pujols or Fielder, or both, need to sign before Reyes goes anywhere. Reyes will probably wait to see what his options are after that happens.

[paul253]

I keep reading the the Brewers have all sorts of interest in Reyes. I don't think it's likely they'll sign him, but I do think it's certainly a possibility. I'd actually like to see them sign Reyes then trade either Wolf or Marcum for a pitching prospect. I think Peralta deserves a chance at the #5 spot and that if he falters you are ok with either Fiers or Estrada or another veteran they can sign. I just think that with such a dearth of starting pitching on the FA market and teams like the Yankees trying hard to upgrade, you could probably get a decent return for Marcum even though he is only signed through next season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Even if there weren't the injury/durability concerns, for an organization like the Brewers, trading a first-round pick to sign an expensive player into his 30s should be a practice generally avoided.

[Oldcity]

I wouldn't be as worried about the pick since they'll be getting something for Fielder. They might drop back 20 spots, but not a huge deal if you think Reyes is the right target.

 

Whether he is is another story entirely, but I wouldn't let the draft pick factor sway it too much.

[PilprinBuddha]

If you can sign Reyes....do it....strong up the middle is huge.

 

I am just not convinced that we can/will sign him.

[kramnoj]

I wouldn't be as worried about the pick since they'll be getting something for Fielder.

 

The CBA is still being negotiated, and the players want to get rid of teams giving up a pick for signing a FA. It's not a guarantee that it will exist in what agreement is reached.

[paul253]

trading a first-round pick to sign an expensive player into his 30s should be a practice generally avoided.

Picks, even first round picks, are hit and miss. Especially in baseball. While I love picks as much as the next guy, I wouldn't base off-season transactions on them.

[colbyjack]

As much as I love the idea of adding Jose Reyes, his situation just screams Alfonso Soriano to me. I want him in the lineup, and on paper he's a perfect fit for the team, but more than likely wherever he ends up his deal is going to look really, really bad in 3-5 years, if that.

 

And the draft pick issue doesn't bother me as much either, and not because picks are 'hit and miss.'

[MNBrew]

There's just too much logic behind going after Reyes for it to be a bad idea (my thinking, anyway). Not that there aren't potential drawbacks, but i think the pros outweigh the cons. If they don't get him, they don't get him. But it gets hard to continue to play with the heavyweight teams if you don't ensure that you have a multiple high-impact bats.

 

It can get risky, sure. But the Brewers didn't get to a 96-win season by playing it safe. There were risks in those moves, too. But they worked and there's a good lot of momentum to the Brewers right now, which doesn't guarantee anything going forward (nothing does), but I think they have to continue approaching things by being both highly & sensibly aggressive.

[endaround]

Reyes is likely the best position player on the market because he'll sign below his true value, something neither Fielder nor Pujols likely will. Fielder's contract will have almost no way for him to outperform it and Pujols will likely out perform it for the first few seasons but then he'll fall off a bit and under perform at the end. Reyes was a 6 win player last year in 126 games, and a fully healthy Reyes is a 6 win player meaning even if he plays 130 games a year he brings great value but he'll like sign for less than $20m or for less than a 4 win player. So there is excess value to which team ends up signing him assuming the bidding doesn't get too crazy. Doesn't mean he fits great for the Brewers but it means that he's unlikely to provoke a winner's curse.