Brewers have serious interest in Jose Reyes?

[B2k1121]

Imo Reyes at this point is a classic example of a player that an organization like the Brewers shouldn't even entertain signing for a long-term, big-money contract. He's also (again, imo) the classic guy a big-market team that's in win-now mode should snap up in a heartbeat.

 

For a big market & win-now team, if you believe he's the missing piece to making it to the World Series, the simple fact that you're probably going to get at least one ~5 WAR season out of him in the next two seasons is probably reason enough to cough up the 6/$100-120M deal it's probably going to take to sign him.

 

But for a team like the Brewers, imo it's really important to remember that Reyes is just the best talent that's available right now, and not necessarily a good idea to sign. For the Brewers, this would be a deal that you need to see nearly 100% return on in order to consider it a good decision. If Reyes's lack of durability continues, that's a gigantic problem -- both in that the team would be without its starting shortstop, and that the guy would be getting paid big-time for being a player that only plays 66.66-75% of the time (or worse).

 

Be patient, make a good investment like signing Barmes for a year or two, & see what develops in your own farm system & on the trade market. If the Brewers are going to take a chance on a big contract, make it Greinke.

I don't see how that could be considered a good investment, sure he wouldn't cost much, but does it really matter when he's most likely not a difference maker? He's just a guy. If you aren't combining that move with several others that might be difference makers then it seems pointless to even sign a guy like Barmes. If he's the biggest move the Brewers make this off-season, they are in trouble.

The Brewers should look at Reyes injury history as a chance to get him cheaper than if he had never missed a game. My opinion is to go for the home run, don't just sign the 'safe' guy. Sure, Barmes isn't going to cripple the Brewers if he goes down with an injury, but he's not going to provide much when he's healthy either unless there are some serious upgrades elsewhere on the team.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Barmes would be a good investment, not to mention a big improvement at his position. He was essentially league-avg. at SS last season, including good defense (which matches up with his reputation). It allows the Brewers the opportunity to be more creative for a long-term SS solution than just blowing over $100M on a guy whose best baseball is likely behind him.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that Ramon Santiago is also a decent FA option, if he doesn't re-sign with Detroit

It's not that I dislike Reyes, given many of the comments in this thread I think I like him at least as much as most here do. He's just not worth the kind of money it's going to take to sign him. Organizations like the Brewers simply cannot afford that kind of risk. You want to sign the 'home run' guy? Then sign Greinke. The Brewers can't afford both Reyes & Greinke, long-term.

[fondybrewfan]

Why are all these national sports writers saying we are the front runner? What part of the Milwaukee Brewers's history makes people believe that we are going to sign one of the highest priced free agents of the offseason? I am sorry I just to do not believe that Melvin is going to offer the most money to Reyes. The Brewers likely cannot sustain a long term payroll at $100 Million or above and they would almost certainly need that high of a payroll to remain competitive if both Reyes and Braun are locked into long term contracts. Not to mention guys like Gallardo & Weeks who are probably in the long term plans as well. What happens if the Brewers have two consecutive poor years and attendance drops to 2.5 million or less and they can't afford the $90-$100 Million in payroll? Our stars are going to be on the chopping block and all of a sudden we are in rebuilding mode.

[TooLiveBrew]

What's funny is that the Braun "rumor" about trying to sign Reyes -- all stemming from Braun saying he thought there was a greater chance to sign Reyes than re-sign Fielder (0%) -- seems to be a factor in influencing some of these national writers.

[And That]

If there were a reason the Brewers would make a strong push for Reyes, it's that Attanasio would like to make a NY-market type splash with a free agent. And what better free agent to do that with than a guy who was just playing in New York?

[TooLiveBrew]

One other factor to consider when it comes to Reyes is that it's entirely possible he'd want nothing to do with playing in Milwaukee. This is a guy who's spent nine seasons playing & living in one of the world's most incredible cities. Milwaukee doesn't hold a candle to NYC (or San Fran -- also likely in the market for a SS -- , etc.), if that's a factor he'd weigh.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Honestly, I think it'll be all about the money. Just like with most other free agents. If the Brewers offer the most money, he'll sign and play here.

[jmeks23]

As everyone's saying, money is your biggest factor. If Mark A. is willing to dole it out though, there's no reason for them to not at least be the front-runners. They can still improve their team with trades (like if they trade for someone like Chase Headley) and small FA signings. I think we can all agree that the Brewers need AT LEAST one more impact bat this upcoming season. If they don't get it they probably won't make the playoffs again, even with the SP staff.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I agree. They'll have a lot of trouble winning the division over the Cardinals as it is, and they'd have to compete for the WC. If they want to make the playoffs they really do need that impact bat. Reyes would be huge to have in the leadoff spot.

[TooLiveBrew]

Via MLBTradeRumors --

 

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York asked eight beat writers about Reyes' future, and none of the eight (covering the Angels, Brewers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Phillies, Tigers and Yankees) seemed optimistic about Reyes signing with their team.

 

 

From Rubin's piece --

 

What they’re saying:

 

Tom Haudricourt, Brewers beat reporter, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: “Under team owner Mark Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin, the Brewers have thought big in recent years (CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Francisco Rodriguez), so it wouldn't surprise me if they took a look at Reyes. If they lose Prince Fielder, they will need to make up some of that offense somewhere. And, having declined their option on Yuniesky Betancourt, the Brewers must make a decision at shortstop. Having said that, I doubt if they'd want to pay what Reyes is seeking, and his recent injury history would be a concern, also. So, I don't expect them to make a serious play for Reyes.”

[nate82]

Via MLBTradeRumors --

 

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York asked eight beat writers about Reyes' future, and none of the eight (covering the Angels, Brewers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Phillies, Tigers and Yankees) seemed optimistic about Reyes signing with their team.

 

 

From Rubin's piece --

 

What they’re saying:

 

Tom Haudricourt, Brewers beat reporter, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: “Under team owner Mark Attanasio and GM Doug Melvin, the Brewers have thought big in recent years (CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke, Francisco Rodriguez), so it wouldn't surprise me if they took a look at Reyes. If they lose Prince Fielder, they will need to make up some of that offense somewhere. And, having declined their option on Yuniesky Betancourt, the Brewers must make a decision at shortstop. Having said that, I doubt if they'd want to pay what Reyes is seeking, and his recent injury history would be a concern, also. So, I don't expect them to make a serious play for Reyes.”

Interesting as a fan I have the same feelings that there really isn't a big market out there for Reyes. I am starting to wonder if Reyes is going to be had at an almost extreme discount if he signs a long term deal as I don't see many teams looking to give Reyes the money he wants or the years that he will want. I'm thinking the biggest contract that Reyes may see will be 5 years and getting about $75-85m. If the Brewers could get Reyes on a 5-year $75m contract that is at an extreme discount. I don't think Reyes will sign that deal but I could see him taking a one or two year deal to build up some value for the next offseason.

[HiAndTight]

Why do I get the feeling that Braun was asked if he held a grudge with Reyes and said something like "No, why would I? He could be a Brewer next year after all." And later was asked does he think Fielder will be back next year and said something like "Maybe, you never know but probably not." And then the Post did what the Post does.

What's that? Wild speculation based on a guess? Nah....that wouldn't be....couldn't be what YOU'RE doing here, could it?

[endaround]

Why do I get the feeling that Braun was asked if he held a grudge with Reyes and said something like "No, why would I? He could be a Brewer next year after all." And later was asked does he think Fielder will be back next year and said something like "Maybe, you never know but probably not." And then the Post did what the Post does.

What's that? Wild speculation based on a guess? Nah....that wouldn't be....couldn't be what YOU'RE doing here, could it?

Yes, its just a weird thing that the Post was the only one who had this huge quote.

[Polish Falcons]

I also think the Brewers might need to add an impact bat to their lineup to be World Series competitors in 2012. I like Gamel and Green but there is a risk that they will not be the solution and if that is the case the 2012 Brewers are in big trouble. Adding a top tier shortstop could mitigate some of that risk and also take some of the pressure off the rookies.

 

The Mets said they would offer 4 years $60 million. Tack on another year at the same amount 5 years $75 million and I think you have your starting point for free agency bidding. I seriously doubt that will do it, and I especially don't think he'd come to Milwaukee for that.

With that in mind I would like to see the Brewers reach up to 5 years and $85 million ($17 million per year) with a vesting option for 6 years $102 million based on games played in the final two years. Some other incentives for games played and All-Star appearances could be built in. Anything less than that I don’t think he’ll sign with Milwaukee. Anything more is getting to be too much, if this isn’t already.

 

This would likely put the Brewers 25 man roster in the range of $100 to $105 million in 2012, but it would not shock me to see Attanasio go there after last year’s run. A lot of people suggest Hart or Wolf would need to be traded in order to free up salary to make a Reyes signing possible, but I’m not certain that is the case. I think Attanasio has deep pockets and after 2011 he's going to be hungry.

 

Other off season activity would just be to resign Hairston, Hawkins, and Saito and take care of arbitration eligible players. McGehe and Parra could be non-tender candidates to save a couple million.

 

With Reyes in tact the opening day lineup could be: 1) Reyes SS, 2) Morgan CF, 3) Braun LF, 4) Weeks 2B, 5) Hart RF, 6) Green 3B, 7) Gamel 1B, 8) Lucroy C, 9) Gallardo. In my opinion this lineup is stronger than the 2011 Brewer lineup which included a full year of Betancourt and McGehe. It would be more balanced.

 

Of course Reyes comes with significant injury risk, but if he had a clean health history with no prior injuries then he would cost a lot more and be completely out of the Brewers price range. Not signing Reyes and maintaining the status quo also presents risks for the Brewers; relying on a below average SS (like Clint Barmes) and two guys who are practically rookies (Green & Gamel) to make up for the loss of Prince Fielder could make them an 85 win team in 2012 (no playoffs) and after that is when Grienke, Marcum, and Wolf could be gone. Given all risks involved I like 5 years / $85 million for Reyes. Dump some salary to make it happen if you have to (Wolf) but consider gambling with a high payroll in 2012.

[Oldcity]

Clint Barmes is not a below average shortstop. You need to look at the numbers for MLB shortstops.

[RockCoCougars]

If you are going to undertake a huge risk like signing Reyes, you might as well take it to the limit, kick in the extra money and just resign Prince. Sign your own guys. You always hear about the Stubbs, Hammonds and Suppan deals, but you rarely hear about the Higuera deal. Heck, even Robin was one of the highest paid players in baseball for a year or two after '89. He wasn't very good anymore after that point, but I don't really remember anyone complaining. Bottom line, Prince has brought millions of dollars in revenue to this team, goes out there to play every day and seems to be a good teammate and a apparently good role model. Why bring someone new into the situation with a high risk of things exploding in one's face? I say this because I honestly don't believe that Reyes will go much cheaper than Prince.

[Polish Falcons]

Clint Barmes is not a below average shortstop. You need to look at the numbers for MLB shortstops.

I did look at the numbers and stand by my comment that he is a below average shortstop. When I looked at his AVG, OBP, and OPS for the past three years he I found that he was below average every year in every category except going back to 2009 he managed to be merely a league average SS in OPS with the benefit of Coors Field. I understand he is better than Yuniesky Betancourt but at least offensively he is below average.

 

RockCo if Prince & Reyes are going for similar prices then I agree to sign Prince, but I will be shocked if they are close in price unless you consider $5-$7 million more a year plus 2-3 extra years close.

 

[RockCoCougars]

RockCo if Prince & Reyes are going for similar prices then I agree to sign Prince, but I will be shocked if they are close in price unless you consider $5-$7 million more a year plus 2-3 extra years close.

 

I actually think that Reyes may get a year longer than Prince. I'd say you are pretty much on the button that Prince will get an extra $5-7 million. I think that all told, Prince will probably get an extra $25-30 million than Reyes. I know that it's not my money, but I'd up the ante for Prince given the choice. In the end, both are probably unrealistic options though.

[Oldcity]

Clint Barmes is not a below average shortstop. You need to look at the numbers for MLB shortstops.

I did look at the numbers and stand by my comment that he is a below average shortstop. When I looked at his AVG, OBP, and OPS for the past three years he I found that he was below average every year in every category except going back to 2009 he managed to be merely a league average SS in OPS with the benefit of Coors Field. I understand he is better than Yuniesky Betancourt but at least offensively he is below average.

Factoring in defense, he's above average for sure. He's elite defensively, which is exactly what the Brewers need.

[nate82]

I wouldn't call Barmes defensively elite. He is above average at SS and definitely not an elite defensive SS. I am also worried that the price for Barmes maybe way to high for the Brewers and Barmes talent level. I am thinking the Twins, Mariners, Tigers, and the Astros are going to drive Barmes price up higher than what he is worth. There is going to be a higher demand for Barmes than there will be for Reyes which I find to be rather funny.

I don't see Reyes getting more years than Prince. At a minimum Prince is going to get 6-years while Reyes is probably going to be lucky if he receives anything over 5-years. I believe the market for Reyes is rather small and I don't see the Mets as being a serious contender for Reyes. The Mariners could be but Prince or even Ortiz makes more sense than the Reyes does for them. The Angels are another team but every year they go after a free agent and never go all in on once since they got Torii Hunter. I thought I read that the Angels actually do not have any payroll room to even get Reyes. I think it comes down to three teams for Reyes and that is the Tigers, Cardinals, and the Brewers. Neither of the three teams are going to have that much of player salaries room left to sign Reyes to more than $18m a year. I still believe the team that signs Reyes is going to get him for a rather large discount if Reyes signs a long term deal with that team. I believe the market for Reyes is going to top out at or near a 5-year deal between $80-90m.

[dadofandrew]

Barmes is probably about 3-5 runs better overall than the average SS, but he's not young and I feel he'll make far too much/too many years as well. As an OBP guy, it's really tough to like a guy who has gotten out almost 70% of the time while having home parks of Coors and Minute Maid. Also, there's just no ceiling to speak of.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm going to guess that Reyes gets 7 years and Prince gets 6. Rightly or wrongly, I think that Prince's size will be held against him, not to mention that he is represented by Boras, and he plays relatively poor defense at a 'common' position. Reyes on the other hand plays at a 'rare' position and is considered an 'exciting' player. His injury history may hold him back a tad, but I think that people are underestimating the interest that he will draw. Simply put, Prince is 1B to Pujols, and Reyes is 1A to Rollins (who is close to done in my view, and wants way too much money). I fully expect the Mets and Nationals to get into a bidding war for Reyes among several other teams.

[Polish Falcons]

MLBTR reporting The Marlins contacted Reyes one minute into free agency and may have already made an offer. Surely Miami will want to make a free agency splash the first year in their new stadium. Unless they somehow manage to land Fielder or Pujols, I think the Marlins will be the team to drive up Reyes' cost to an unreasonable amount.

[madtowndrunkard]

Why would the Marlins want a SS? Don't they already have a pretty good one?

[jmeks23]

Hanley has lost some pull with the organization, and is apparently very much willing to move to 3B if they get Reyes. I still don't see how it makes sense for the Marlins OR Jose Reyes other than the hispanic connection (which seems like a stretch).

 

I still think he won't go for over 5 years, though there will be an option year for a sixth. He's just too injury prone for a team to risk 6-7 guaranteed years. Prince however will definitely get at least 6 considering how young he is still, and the fact that he just doesn't miss any games. Overall I think the Brewers are the early front-runners for Reyes as they probably want to make a splash, however as we get to the winter meetings they might be out of the running if the price gets ridiculous. Either way, Melvin and Mark A. will be busy this offseason.