2011 Playoff rotation

[markedman5]

I'm not sure RR has the "whole staff" strategy in him.

 

I think he is loyal to a fault. Hope I'm wrong.

 

May not matter.....Cards are so hot right now that it would take Roy Halladay or Cole Hamels to shut them down.

[Menotti80]

Pretty simple:

 

Yo

Wolf

Narveson

Greinke

Yo

 

Assuming greinke wins again at home, that means 2 wins from Yo or 1 win from Yo & a win for either wolf or narveson.

 

BAM!

[TooLiveBrew]

If you don't see a difference between the way Marcum gave up runs last night and the way Wolf did in his last start we aren't going to agree on pitching in general.

If you didn't see that Marcum's command was flat-out awful last night, I don't know what to say. For the guy that lectures people on getting caught up in results, that's exactly what you're doing here. Just because most of the Cardinals hitters didn't mash Marcum's poorly located pitches doesn't mean he was just unlucky.

[sargennm]

If you don't see a difference between the way Marcum gave up runs last night and the way Wolf did in his last start we aren't going to agree on pitching in general.

If you didn't see that Marcum's command was flat-out awful last night, I don't know what to say. For the guy that lectures people on getting caught up in results, that's exactly what you're doing here. Just because most of the Cardinals hitters didn't mash Marcum's poorly located pitches doesn't mean he was just unlucky.

Unless he gets removed from the roster, he's starting Game 6. I'm confident that's a scenario that RR will have an early hook and go Johnny Wholestaff.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think of this as a 2 game series. Games 3/4. If we lose both of those, it will be nearly impossible to win the last 3. So, to me, that means you have to do everything you can to win ONE of the next two games.

 

That means letting Gallardo pitch on full rest vs Lohse in Game 4. Throw Wolf out there against Carpenter in Game 3. Just not wise to burn Yo vs Carpenter when the odds aren't in our favor. I could care less if that means Yo is pitching on 3 days rest in game 7. We have to GET to game 7.

 

Just think it through. If Carpenter pitches lights-out like he has been, we're down 2-1. Now we have to have faith in Randy Wolf preventing us from going down 3-1? I don't like the way that's setting up at all.

[sargennm]

I think of this as a 2 game series. Games 3/4. If we lose both of those, it will be nearly impossible to win the last 3. So, to me, that means you have to do everything you can to win ONE of the next two games.

 

That means letting Gallardo pitch on full rest vs Lohse in Game 4. Throw Wolf out there against Carpenter in Game 3. Just not wise to burn Yo vs Carpenter when the odds aren't in our favor. I could care less if that means Yo is pitching on 3 days rest in game 7. We have to GET to game 7.

 

Just think it through. If Carpenter pitches lights-out like he has been, we're down 2-1. Now we have to have faith in Randy Wolf preventing us from going down 3-1? I don't like the way that's etting up at all.

Carpenter has only been lights out in two of his last three starts. One that was the final game of the season against the Astros, and then Game 5 against Philly in which they had a number of warning track shots. I like the Brewers chances.

[Ennder]

If you didn't see that Marcum's command was flat-out awful last night, I don't know what to say. For the guy that lectures people on getting caught up in results, that's exactly what you're doing here. Just because most of the Cardinals hitters didn't mash Marcum's poorly located pitches doesn't mean he was just unlucky.

 

It was much, much better than Wolf in his post season start. Wolf wasn't even coming anywhere near the plate with most of his pitches and he is more hittable than Marcum is when he does come into the strike zone. If I have to kick someone out of the rotation I'd gladly kick Wolf out before Marcum. To be fair none of the Brewer SP has thrown the ball well in their last playoff game, Gallardo was all over the place in game 5 too, he is just good enough to not get destroyed every time he struggles with command.

[Oxy]

Yo will be pitching on full rest tomorrow night against Carpenter--no reason to give him 5 days off. What everybody is failing to understand is that St. Louis' pitching staff really isn't in much better shape than the Brewers'. When taking the bullpens into account I'd say that it's worse, even with the poor starts by everybody not named Gallardo (obviously it's not better if the starters continue to be THAT poor, but that's unlikely). Thus, if Gallardo can pull out the win tomorrow against Carp, I think St. Louis is all but done in the series, while if the Brewers lose I still think they have a decent chance at coming out on top.

[jeffy]

Holding Yo back until game 4 would also means he'd have to go on short rest, if he is going to pitch game 7. It would be a very foolish move to make, IMO.

 

The Brewers have to win at least 1 in St. Louis, if that is all that they do it doesn't really matter which game they win. I don't believe winning 2 back at Miller Park is somehow more difficult if they lose Wed, Thurs and win Friday rather than lose Wed, win Thurs, lose Fri.

[SconnieKid]

All the people that want Yo and Grenike to go on short rest aren't recognizing what terrible track record that means. Its almost always only done with outstanding personnel and it has not only turned elite pitching into 9-14 pitching but it also means you aren't going to have an elite pitcher the next day. No short rest PLEASE. Especially for Yo and Greinke.

 

Yo

Wolf

Narveson

 

Greinke

Yo

 

If you are going to have Narv pitch why not bring Greinke back to Milw for his last start of the series? He has been so much better at home. I would feel so much better about having Yo and Greinke close out the series at home than needing Marcum to win the matchup he was so hopelessly trounced in last night.

[Oxy]

SconnieKid wrote:

Yo

Wolf

Narveson

 

Greinke

Yo

 

If you are going to have Narv pitch why not bring Greinke back to Milw for his last start of the series? He has been so much better at home. I would feel so much better about having Yo and Greinke close out the series at home than needing Marcum to win the matchup he was so hopelessly trounced in last night.

I agree, but only if the Brewers can win at least one of the next two. I don't want to start Narveson in an elimination game when Greinke is fully rested. That would not make any sense, no matter what the splits say. If they can get a win or two though, I'd love for Greinke to pitch at home.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/131559193.html

 

Well, looks like we can forget about Narveson getting a start. Really stupid reasoning there from RRR in my opinion. He could just throw Narveson out there for 3-4 innings, and then fill-in with the bullpen. If he pitches well he could probably go 5 if he got another start later on in the World Series if we get there. I just don't understand why he would rather throw Marcum out there to get rocked, and likely get removed by the 4th anyway, when he could get 3-4 solid innings from Narveson.

[tigerbrew]

I'm not sure RR has the "whole staff" strategy in him.

 

I think he is loyal to a fault. Hope I'm wrong.

 

May not matter.....Cards are so hot right now that it would take Roy Halladay or Cole Hamels to shut them down.

The Cards may be hot, but there is no reason to make it easier for them to win. I bet LaRussa is delighted to hear that Roenicke is starting Marcum for Game 6, what a dumb mistake.

 

The Cards are a really tough team to beat, we must approach each game in this series like it is Game 7. This means using our best SPs and best relievers, and be ready for a quick pitching switch when necessary. Roenicke isn't doing this and it is frustrating, he seems to be managing this series like he would in the regular season. Who knows when we will have this WS opportunity again, we don't want to have any regrets for not playing your best players if we lose.

 

I still really hope that the Brewers go with this rotation in this series:

 

Game 3 - Yo

Game 4 - Greinke

Game 5 - Wolf or Narveson

 

Game 6 - Yo

Game 7 - Greinke

 

Greinke may not be pitching as good as we like so far this postseason, but he is still our second best starter and the team is 2-0 when he starts. Our offense hits well with good run support when he starts and hopefully this trend continues.

 

[Flood Pants]

It's not stupid to start your third best pitcher in a post season game, even if he's had a couple of rough ones. Sticking with Marcum is the right decision.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think anyone's mentioned this yet, apologies if I missed it here on in the last IGT.

 

Marcum looked like his (left) hip flexor may have been bothering him in last night's game. Smoltz made a comment when Marcum was back on the mound after fouling a pitch off his foot in an at-bat the previous half-inning that Marcum was really kicking that foot around. However, iirc he started kicking his left leg around (sometimes really subtly, sometimes more obviously) before that plate appearance & foul off his foot. His body language, specifically in his left leg, was almost identical to how he was acting when the hip flexor injury first came about.

 

I also noticed he was doing the full-bend-over stretch on the mound even before the first pitch. That could be something he just does no matter what, but iirc that's something he also started doing once he had the hip problem.

 

 

EDIT: I specifically remember mentioning something to Principessa while we were watching the game... during the top half of the 2nd inning... that Marcum looked like his hip was bugging him again.

[tigerbrew]

If Marcum is hurt and it is affecting his pitching, then he should be honest about it and should not pitch in Game 6. Instead he should be given more rest time and if the Brewers make it to the World Series, I wouldn't mind having him make another start.

[Oldcity]

I think of this as a 2 game series. Games 3/4. If we lose both of those, it will be nearly impossible to win the last 3. So, to me, that means you have to do everything you can to win ONE of the next two games.

 

That means letting Gallardo pitch on full rest vs Lohse in Game 4. Throw Wolf out there against Carpenter in Game 3. Just not wise to burn Yo vs Carpenter when the odds aren't in our favor. I could care less if that means Yo is pitching on 3 days rest in game 7. We have to GET to game 7.

 

Just think it through. If Carpenter pitches lights-out like he has been, we're down 2-1. Now we have to have faith in Randy Wolf preventing us from going down 3-1? I don't like the way that's setting up at all.

I was coming on here to say this exact thing.

 

You can't worry about having to use Yo on short rest for Game 7. They have to do everything they can to make sure they HAVE a Game 7. That means they must win one of the next two. The way it sits right now, the Cards would likely be favored to win both Game 3 and Game 4. If they flipped Yo and Wolf, the Cards would be big favorites in Game 3, but the Brewers would be favorites in Game 4. That's their best way to go 2-2.

 

The way Roenicke is going to do it, it makes Game 3 a must-win. Who wants Randy Wolf as the guy who has to keep the Brewers from falling to a 3-1 deficit?

 

On the flip side, imagine the edge the Brewers would have if they somehow pulled out a win in a Wolf-Carpenter game. They'd have a 2-1 lead with Gallardo facing Lohse. If they lose the Wolf-Carpenter game, so what--they still have Yo against Lohse.

 

So the downside is bringing back Yo on short rest for Game 7. They'll have plenty of pitchers available for a few innings each in that game. Like we said, you have to get to that game first.

[tyguy20204]

Gallardo is just as good as Carpenter at this point in both of their careers, why wouldn't you start him? Gallardo's going on full rest tonight, I don't see how that's a point in favor of starting him tomorrow against Lohse.

As for Carpenter pitching lights out? Yeah, he's been stellar the last month or so in pitching against the Marlins, Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Dodgers. And Philly and Milwaukee, of course, the two better offenses he's seen.

Still, just look at his game log. In the last two months of the season, he got blasted by the Pirates twice, by the Reds once, by our very own Brewers once, and he had several games where he was quite mediocre.

He's capable of a great performance, yeah. But let's not pretend that he's Roy Halladay or something. This guy can be had, and you really shouldn't be scheduling your pitching rotation around when you face him.

[chuckcrim]

There's an 80% chance of an all night rain in STL. This game could easily get postponed. If that happens, we're looking at 5 games in 5 days. Do you bring back Greinke for game 4 on regular rest? Who pitches games 6 and 7? Probably Marcum & Narveson. Scary thought.

[tyguy20204]

Start your best pitchers when you can, worry about the rest later.

[Bruce Ciskie]

There's an 80% chance of an all night rain in STL. This game could easily get postponed. If that happens, we're looking at 5 games in 5 days. Do you bring back Greinke for game 4 on regular rest? Who pitches games 6 and 7? Probably Marcum & Narveson. Scary thought.

If this happens, you throw Gallardo in Game 3, Greinke in Game 4 (regular rest), and Wolf in Game 5 (who cares about his rest ... extra might help him). Come back with Marcum on a short leash in Game 6 (Narveson in pen if necessary), then Gallardo on short rest in Game 7 (with Greinke available in bullpen if need be).

[pretendastronaut]

The rain possibility scares me more than anything, imagine getting into a Verlander type situation with Yo at this point. If there's an 80% chance of rain, you almost need to put Wolf out there tonight so you don't waste Yo's outing.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not stupid to start your third best pitcher in a post season game, even if he's had a couple of rough ones. Sticking with Marcum is the right decision.

He's had 5 "rough ones" in his last 6 starts and even that's sugar coating it. On Sept. 9, he allowed 5 ER on 9 hits in 6 2/3. In his next start he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits in 5 innings. He followed that with his one good start in the bunch in Chicago, then finished the regular season getting blasted by the Pirates for 7 runs, all earned, and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings. He's been horrific.

 

He's not their 3rd best pitcher right now and that's all that counts. Keep throwing him out there and you are basically conceding game 6. Hard to win a series that way.

[Bruce Ciskie]

After all the heat MLB took over Verlander's shortened start in Game 1 of the ALDS and then what happened Saturday, I imagine they'll be ultra-careful letting this game start.

[Bruce Ciskie]

I don't have his Game 3 start against Arizona recorded, but Marcum looked to be shaking off Lucroy a lot on Monday. I don't know if this was something common throughout the season, because it's not typically something I watch for. Wasn't watching for it Monday, but instead just happened to notice it as the game played out.

 

Marcum only threw 15 2/3 innings this season to catchers not named "Lucroy," so I can't imagine they're not on the same page, but it really looked like they had different ideas on how to handle the Cardinals hitters. It's easy to blame Marcum because of how the start ended up playing out, but I won't do that until I know if there's been a history of Marcum frequently shaking off his catcher.