2011 Playoff rotation

[tigerbrew]

RRR on Marcum and Game 6-

 

"As far as I'm concerned right now, he's pitching again." Oy.

Roenicke, please don't be a stubborn, stupid fool. This is an extremely important series and we may not have this opportunity again for many years to come. Please pick your best pitchers and don't screw around.

 

 

 

 

 

[sargennm]

Since 2004 pitchers in the playoffs on three days rest: Teams have a W-L record of 9-14 (with the pitchers going 6-6). SPs have an ERA of 4.86 with a slash line of .263/.372/.419

http://blogs.delawareonli...est-wont-help-carpenter/

 

No thanks. Marcum has stunk, but he's going to start Game 6 with Narv and Estrada backing him up. Get used it it.

 

But let's seem them get it that far first.

[RockCoCougars]

Pretty simple solution in my opinion.

 

Game 3 Gallardo

Game 4 Greinke

Game 5 Wolf

Game 6 Gallardo

Game 7 Greinke

I think this is what you need to do if the Brewers lose Wednesday, because you have to get Game 4. However, if they can pull out the win Wednesday, I like the Wolf/Lohse matchup fairly well. I still have little confidence in Wolf, but I see Lohse as the weak link in the Cards rotation. I'd give the Brewers at least a fighting chance in that one, even though Wolf has been pitching poorly. I really don't want to see Marcum out there again- he's been Suppan-esque. The bottom line is that the Brewers are going to need to get the bats going. Part of me thinks that being the road team is almost an advantage for the Crew in this series as they get first bats, and also that most of their pitchers are pretty crappy in the first inning, which is further compounded by the fact that this year the Cardinals best offensive inning is- you guessed it- the first.

 

All told, I think people are panicking a tad much and starting to jump ship because the Brewers have been playing from behind in each of the last 5 games. In those games, they've given up runs in the first 4 times- multiple runs 3 times. You can't do that and expect to win on a consistent basis. It's demoralizing and stressful for the fans, so I have to imagine that at least some of that carries over to the players.

[tigerbrew]

Since 2004 pitchers in the playoffs on three days rest: Teams have a W-L record of 9-14 (with the pitchers going 6-6). SPs have an ERA of 4.86 with a slash line of .263/.372/.419

This stats mentioned above are much better than Marcum's stats this postseason, and the team's W-L record is 0-2 with him on the mound.

 

In 2008, I was really upset when Sveum decided to start Suppan in Game 4 instead of Yo. Suppan gave up 3 homers and 5 ERs in 3 innings and was quickly replaced by Yo who pitched great, but the Brewers could only muster 2 runs and was knocked out of postseason. I hope Roenicke don't repeat history, please start our best pitchers in this series.

[trwi7]

sargennm wrote:

---

Since 2004 pitchers in the playoffs on three days rest: Teams have a W-L record of 9-14 (with the pitchers going 6-6). SPs have an ERA of 4.86 with a slash line of .263/.372/.419
http://blogs.delawareonli...est-wont-help-carpenter/

I'd take that. That ERA is over 6.5 runs better than the ERAs of our non Gallardo starters in the playoffs.

[sargennm]

Take out Cc's freak arm and it gets worse. Unless the brewers are down 3-2, I doubt Ron will even consider it. Because then it's either Marcum in 7 or Grienke on short rest which also was a disaster.

[clancyphile]

The scary part is 2011 is the window. The Crew needs to go all in, because a downgrade at 1B if Fielder leaves makes making the playoffs down the road a much iffier proposition.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why isn't Narveson in the discussion? He has a 1.20 ERA against the Cards this year. Most of the troubles he's had this year came after the 5th. You need 5 solid innings from your starter then hand it over to the pen. I think he's fully capable of keeping them in the game for 5 innings. I'd trust Narveson over Marcum (and Wolf frankly) at this point.

 

Marcum is fried, mentally and physically.

[davego]

Easy for me to say, but I'd have to go with Narveson and have Estrada, et al ready to go.

[Ennder]

Marcum really didn't pitch poorly, if our defense makes the plays it should and the Cards don't have every little bloop hit find a hole he gives up 2 runs. If I'm going to yank a starter from the rotation it is Wolf, not Marcum.

[jeffy]

Greinke and Gallardo on three days rest makes me very nervous.

 

The absence of the off-day between Games 4 and 5 is a killer for the Brewers this year. Quite honestly, people whining about World Series games in November could be the difference between winning and losing the pennant.

 

 

Why would there be an off day between games 4 and 5?

 

Maybe I've not paid close attention recently, but haven't the off days always been the travel days between games 2 and 3 and between games 5 and 6?

[clancyphile]

Gallardo has had a bit more than three days for Game 3. If Narveson goes Game 4, then the Brewers can go Greinke in Game 5.

[Patrick425]

Greinke and Gallardo on three days rest makes me very nervous.

 

The absence of the off-day between Games 4 and 5 is a killer for the Brewers this year. Quite honestly, people whining about World Series games in November could be the difference between winning and losing the pennant.

 

 

Why would there be an off day between games 4 and 5?

 

Maybe I've not paid close attention recently, but haven't the off days always been the travel days between games 2 and 3 and between games 5 and 6?

I was thinking the same thing. I don't ever remember there being an off day between games 4 and 5.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Marcum really didn't pitch poorly, if our defense makes the plays it should and the Cards don't have every little bloop hit find a hole he gives up 2 runs. If I'm going to yank a starter from the rotation it is Wolf, not Marcum.

It seems like every crap start we've had this postseason (which is every start except the 2 games started by Gallardo), it's "Well he didn't pitch bad, except 2 pitches", or "it was a bunch of bloop hits and then one bad pitch".

 

When is it just bad pitching? Marcum is pitching like crap. He's hanging everything up, his changeup has no movement on it, and his fastball is straight as a string. I know there's some that want to basically say everything is bad luck, but Marcum's been awful since the beginning of September, and it's not all attributable to bloop singles and happenstance bad pitches when there just happens to be 2 or 3 guys on base.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Why isn't Narveson in the discussion? He has a 1.20 ERA against the Cards this year. Most of the troubles he's had this year came after the 5th. You need 5 solid innings from your starter then hand it over to the pen. I think he's fully capable of keeping them in the game for 5 innings. I'd trust Narveson over Marcum (and Wolf frankly) at this point.

 

Marcum is fried, mentally and physically.

 

Spot on. We saw what Greinke looked like on 3 days rest...fairly pedestrian. I'd go:

 

 

Gallardo

Wolf

Greinke

Narv/Wholestaff

Gallardo

 

 

If RR would take a look at what TLR does and bring a solid reliever into a high leverage situation earlier in the game, he could get through a game with 5 innings and the pen. If Pujols, Holliday & Berkman are coming up in the 5th don't bring in Estrada...use Saito or K Rod.

 

 

Marcum is toast...he's not Suppan, he's just gassed.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why isn't Narveson in the discussion? He has a 1.20 ERA against the Cards this year. Most of the troubles he's had this year came after the 5th. You need 5 solid innings from your starter then hand it over to the pen. I think he's fully capable of keeping them in the game for 5 innings. I'd trust Narveson over Marcum (and Wolf frankly) at this point.

 

Marcum is fried, mentally and physically.

 

Spot on. We saw what Greinke looked like on 3 days rest...fairly pedestrian. I'd go:

 

Gallardo

Wolf

Greinke

Narv/Wholestaff

Gallardo

 

If RR would take a look at what TLR does and bring a solid reliever into a high leverage situation earlier in the game, he could get through a game with 5 innings and the pen. If Pujols, Holliday & Berkman are coming up in the 5th don't bring in Estrada...use Saito or K Rod.

 

Marcum is toast...he's not Suppan, he's just gassed.

I'd go one step further. I'd take Marcum off the roster with a "tired arm" and replace him with Frankie De la Cruz. We know Narveson has a fresh arm and for the most part he showed the ability to get through the order twice against virtually everybody. That's all they really need. I totally agree with having Saito available much earlier if the game situation calls for it.

[Invader3K]

When is it just bad pitching? Marcum is pitching like crap. He's hanging everything up, his changeup has no movement on it, and his fastball is straight as a string. I know there's some that want to basically say everything is bad luck, but Marcum's been awful since the beginning of September, and it's not all attributable to bloop singles and happenstance bad pitches when there just happens to be 2 or 3 guys on base.

I agree. Marcum just hasn't been good lately. The defense let him down a couple times last night, but it's hard to blame the defense for a total blowout loss like we had last night. I was at the game last night. You are right that Marcum was leaving pitches up. With his non-fireball stuff, that's a recipe to get lit up.

 

I would skip Marcum and give Narveson a chance.

[NievesNoNO]

I love Marcum, but there's definitely something not right with him. He likely has just run out a gas as some have already stated. I don't think you can afford to run him out there again this series. If we're fortunate enough to move on then maybe you give him a game in the WS, but for now you have to skip him.

[JohnBriggs12]

The pitch that Pujols hit out in the first would have been hit hard by any decent high school hitter. It was that bad. That he'd miss that badly to Pujols shows he has zero command. Zero command is a sign of arm trouble.

[Ennder]

If you don't see a difference between the way Marcum gave up runs last night and the way Wolf did in his last start we aren't going to agree on pitching in general.

[markedman5]

Its not just last night. Marcum has been really bad for over a month now.

 

Gallardo must feel awfully lonely right now. He is the only guy pitching well at the most important time of the year.

 

Unfortunately Cards have really dominated Yo throughout his career so this is put up or shutup time for this rotation.

 

Games 3 and 4 are obviously crucial. Need at least a split or the series is effectively over.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/s...ewer-rotation-in-trouble

[JohnBriggs12]

Prior to last year when he logged 195 innings, Marcum's peak year for innings was 2008 with 168 that included 17 in the minors. This year he's over 200. He's not a particularly big guy and I noticed while watching him in his last effective start, on Sept. 20th in Chicago, he actually puts a lot of physical effort into his pitches even to get to the 88-89 mph level. He does not have a real fluid delivery. It's obvious he's hit the wall physically.

 

Over his last 6 starts (4 in reg season and 2 postseason):

 

33 1/3 IP, 46 Hits, 30 ER, 7 HR, 8.11 ERA.

 

Roenicke would be nuts to send him out there again.

[Bombers]

60% chance of rain for tomorrow. If the game is rained out you could bump Greinke up to game 4 as he would have his 4 days rest.

1. Yo on Thursday (game 3)

2. Greinke on Friday (game 4)

3. Wolf on Sat (Game 5)

4. Narv/Estrada/Pen on Sun (game 6)

5. Yo on Mon (game 7)

[tigerbrew]

In NLDS 2008, Yo pitched well on 3 days rest. I don't think pitching on 3 days rest will affect Yo in Game 6 at home.

 

As for Greinke, there was very little difference in his pitching on 3 days rest or 4 days rest this postseason, I don't think pitching on 3 days rest will affect him for Game 4. And if this series do go to Game 7, I much prefer to have Greinke pitching at home with the World Series on the line in hopes that his unbeaten streak at home continues.

 

As for Game 5, either Wolf or Narveson starting is fine by me.

[RockCoCougars]

I actually think I'd prefer to see Estrada out there for the first 3 innings (ideally) and then Narveson. The thing I like about Estrada is that he usually throws a lot of strikes. I'd go with this mishmash in Game 5 if the Brewers are able to win tomorrow or Thursday. Busch is more of a pitcher's park, so I'd give these guys a better chance of success there. I'd save Greinke and Gallardo for home under those circumstances.