2011 Playoff rotation

[bork]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

 

Huh? He had one bad start on September 1st. Otherwise he has been outstanding for the last month and a half.

[ilovebeer]

Lets hope the Brewers score a lot of runs early, Grienke pitch 2 innings, and the the bullpen take it from there.

[jeffy]

The Brewers had a mediocre September...

 

For September Gallardo is #1 among Brewer starters for: WHIP, AVG, and SO

[endaround]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

 

Huh? He had one bad start on September 1st. Otherwise he has been outstanding for the last month and a half.

No, he's been homer prone all month. Its why his FIP is 4.32 to go along with his 4.35 ERA. Now that's far from terrible but its below average.

[JohnBriggs12]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

Huh? He's got 36 K's and 4 BB's in his last 3 starts (all wins) over 20 1/3 IP, and allowed just 4 ER (1.77 ERA), and 12 hits. His WHIP over those starts is 0.746. I'd say he's been on a tremendous role. That he's given up 3 solo HR doesn't bother me.

[fondybrewfan]

His last 3 starts have been ridiculously good including two agaisnt good offenses in PHI and CIN. He has given up more than 3 runs only twice in the last two months and has given up 2 or less 8 times during that same stretch. Gallardo has been very good.

[PKBadger]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

 

Huh? He had one bad start on September 1st. Otherwise he has been outstanding for the last month and a half.

No, he's been homer prone all month. Its why his FIP is 4.32 to go along with his 4.35 ERA. Now that's far from terrible but its below average.

 

I'm convinced that you are secretly Jason Whitlock, seeding message boards with inflexible (and sometimes ridiculous) stat-driven opinions to further his agenda.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I think Gallardo's last 3 starts are the main reason he's the Game 1 starter. Ride the hot hand.

[rluzinski]

Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo are all excellent pitchers but I'd have to order them in that order of expectations going forward. What they've done in the last couple of starts should only be considered to break a tie. It has virtually no predictive value. Of course, I said the same thing when Gallardo had a bad start to the season so it would only be right if I'm ignored again, now that he's hot.

 

Come on people, you guys fall for the same things over and over! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[endaround]

Yes Gallardo's last three starts have been good. The two before that he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings and 3 runs in 6. Those 2 bad starts weren't a sign of him becoming a terrible pitcher just like his last three don't mean he's reached a new level.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Not saying they do, just saying they probably played a factor in Roenicke's decision.

[topper09er]

Come on people, you guys fall for the same things over and over! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Well you fall into the trap of thinking every single time someone outperforms your expected results it is due to luck or randomness. I am pretty sure the answer lies somewhere in between, sometimes its enhanced play and sometimes a random positive variation in play.

 

Do you honestly believe that every single instance in baseball history that a hitter is 6-10 against a pitcher it is due to the variation possible in that small of a sample size, and never because a guy actually just hits well against a certain pithcer. Or every single clutch play in the World Series is just a case of a guy making a nice play in an October game just like all the random great plays throughout the season. There is never a case of someone playing better with the season on the line?

 

Just because clutch play or great play in small samples are poor predictors of future performance does not mean they don't exist.

 

It is entirely possible that Zach Greinke is a better pitcher at home, and entirely possible he just has lucky results there this season.

[dlk9s]

Yes Gallardo's last three starts have been good. The two before that he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings and 3 runs in 6. Those 2 bad starts weren't a sign of him becoming a terrible pitcher just like his last three don't mean he's reached a new level.

Since when is 3 runs in 6 innings "bad?" It's not great by any means, and maybe it's "bad" for a pitcher as skilled as Yo, but in general, in no way would I consider 3 runs in 6 innings a "bad" outing. Mediocre, maybe, but "bad?" No.

[dlk9s]

Come on people, you guys fall for the same things over and over! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

It is entirely possible that Zach Greinke is a better pitcher at home, and entirely possible he just has lucky results there this season.

You're right. The problem is, people cling to his home/road splits like they are the word of God, handed down to Moses on two stone tablets. There might be something there, there might not be, but rather than saying that nobody has found a real reason why his splits are what they are over less than 30 games, people just conclude that Greinke MUST start at home because zomglookatthesplits.

[RockCoCougars]

Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo are all excellent pitchers but I'd have to order them in that order of expectations going forward

 

I was actually leaning this way. In a 5 game series, Game 3 is usually pivotal so it would be nice to have Gallardo going then. However, it seemed to me that Greinke has pitched badly on long rest this year. I looked at the stats, and they were ugly, so I don't have a problem with the rotation as it stands now. I'm mostly worried about Marcum and/or Wolf turning in a Suppan-like stinker based on how they've pitched of late.

[pebadger]

The winner of Game 1 has won 21 of the 24 NLDS played since the changed to the seeded-home format. Seems to me that's a pretty good argument to put your best guy out there for Game 1. Who that is is open to debate. I'd go with Yo right now based on all the available evidence (empirical and otherwise).

[dlk9s]

Isn't it nice to have a debate on who our best pitcher is when the reason for the debate is that there are multiple great options?

[pebadger]

My numbers were off a bit. It's 23 of 26 since the change to the seeded home-format. And the home field holder is 13-13 in NLDS in that span. So, it seems to me that the best answer is to have your best guy ready for Game 1 (and the next for Game 2) and not worry about home field if there is a conflict between the two in terms of setting up the rotation.

[jeffy]

The winner of Game 1 has won 21 of the 24 NLDS played since the changed to the seeded-home format.

 

That could just mean that the team with the better #1 pitcher tends to win and also that teams that limp into the playoffs (e.g. Brewers 2008) tend to lose.

 

I agree that having your best pitcher lined up to pitch two of the 5 games should be a bigger priority than home field. Who that #1 should be for the 2011 Brewers is not clear to me, I have no problem with it being Yo.

[pebadger]

The winner of Game 1 has won 21 of the 24 NLDS played since the changed to the seeded-home format.

 

That could just mean that the team with the better #1 pitcher tends to win and also that teams that limp into the playoffs (e.g. Brewers 2008) tend to lose.

I think that's right, and I think the 13-13 record of teams that hold the home field advantage tends to back that up. It's pretty amazing that half the time these series never get to Game 4 and only 4 times have they gotten to Game 5 (NLDS only).

[rluzinski]

Come on people, you guys fall for the same things over and over! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Well you fall into the trap of thinking every single time someone outperforms your expected results it is due to luck or randomness.

You may want to go back and read my posts a little closer before telling my what I do I don't believe in. I speak of the "most likely explanation", not proclaiming I know exactly what has caused an unexpected split. As I have said dozens of times on these boards, "who knows".

But as usual, it's easier for people to argue against a straw man than me.

[markedman5]

@AdamMcCalvy

Adam McCalvy Working on story about #Brewers pitching plan. Sounds like door is open for Greinke to talk himself into Game 2. Story coming to Brewers.com

12 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply

[Schlitz001]

I've speculated before that maybe Greinke feels more comfortable pitching at home, it would explain his home/road splits. If that's what he's telling RR and he's comfortable pitching on short rest then he should definitely pitch game 2, but if he's only going to pitch 1 game this series anyway I don't see why he shouldn't pitch on normal rest.

 

EDIT: Also, I'm glad that we all finally agree that we don't know why Greinke pitches better at home than on the road.

[MoreTrife]

@AdamMcCalvy

Adam McCalvy Working on story about #Brewers pitching plan. Sounds like door is open for Greinke to talk himself into Game 2. Story coming to Brewers.com

12 minutes ago via web Favorite Retweet Reply

please please please. i guess i'm victim to being influenced by the splits but marcum at home doesn't sit well with me.

 

[bork]

Greinke only threw 74 pitches, so I could see him going on short rest.