2011 Playoff rotation

[dlk9s]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/130666533.html

 

It's now official. Marcum Game 2 if tomorrow is needed to clinch. Otherwise Greinke will only pitch a few innings and take Game 2. I'd like to clinch tonight, and then have Greinke start Game 2 at home.

As I said earlier in the thread, I really want it to be Yo and Greinke in Games 1 and 2 (probably regardless of whether they're at home or not), so I definitely home we clinch tonight. With them pitching the first two games, either can start Game 5 and heck, one can even pitch in relief if need be.

[paul253]

When you look at the home road splits why would you not base game 2 and 3 starters on where they are played? Marcum is clearly better on the road. Clearly as in an ERA 2.6 runs lower. Greinke is clearly better at home. Clearly as in an ERA 1.53 runs lower. It makes no sense to pitch Marcum at home in game 2 and Greinke on the road in game 3 if that's the way it plays out.

[endaround]

It makes no sense to have Yo be your #1 but there we go. One season of splits is meaningless. It has no effect on anything. Don't look now but Yo's home/road splits are worse than Greinkes! Yo's FIP is 2.97 at home and 4.23 away while Greinke's is 2.68 and 3.39. Or Greinke is always the better choice.

[Team Canada]

Grienke doesn't like extra rest, I'm sure he'll be Game 2.

[paul253]

One season of splits is meaningless. It has no effect on anything

Why is a season of splits meaningless? Marcum's ERA at home is over twice as high as it is on the road. He has only pitched 5.1 innings more at home but he's given up 31 more hits, 6 more home runs, and has 11 more walks and 6 fewer K's (those last two aren't big deals but they continue his pattern). Opponents are hitting 57 points higher against him at home and his WHIP is 36 points higher. These are almost all significant differences. How can you call that meaningless?

 

I agree Greinke is the better choice than Gallardo, but unfortunately you also have to factor in rest. Ideally you play at home in games 1 and 2 and Greinke pitches game 1 and Gallaro game 2, but it doesn't look like they can do that unless they skip Greinke tomorrow. What you can do though is make sure Greinke pitches at home and Marcum pitches on the road, regardless of whether the home game is game 2 or game 3. You said Greinke is always the better choice vs Gallardo, but he is not always the better choice than Marcum. If the game is on the road, Marcum is the better choice.

[endaround]

Because unless you have some specific reason the chance of a spurious correlation is incredibly high. Marcum's ERA increases the more runs the Brewers score, so obviously they shouldn't try to score too many runs with him on the mound.

[pebadger]

Yo and Greinke's numbers are close enough that I go with Yo first any chance I get. I go with Yo in Game 7 over Greinke given the choice, too. I just trust Yo in a big game more than I do Greinke.

[DougJones43]

What is the reasoning that they don't want Greinke to pitch on 6 days rest, but they're okay with Gallardo getting 7 days rest?

[pebadger]

I think they talked to the players and asked them what they felt comfortable with. Greinke wants to throw. Guessing Yo didn't feel he needed to. He threw a couple of simulated innings and he's ready to roll.

[ilovebeer]

its to bad they blew the game on monday.

[paul253]

Marcum's ERA increases the more runs the Brewers score, so obviously

they shouldn't try to score too many runs with him on the mound.

 

You're ignoring an entire season's worth of statistics and using faulty logic. There are explainable reasons why someone may have a higher ERA when your team scores more runs. If the Brewers are up 9-0 then Marcum is going to concentrate more on throwing strikes then hitting corners which can easily lead to more hits and runs. The defense will be much less aggressive and worry more about "sure outs", opposing teams often change their strategy when they are done a ton, etc. There are no solid, explainable reasons why Marcum is so much worse at home. You could argue ballpark factors, but Greinke pitches in the same ballpark. Ballpark factors can't explain why Greinke's numbers so much better at home and Marcum's numbers so much worse at home.

 

But none of this is the point. If you think there is no difference between Marcum pitching at home/Greinke pitching on the road and Marcum pitching on the road/Greinke at home then we'll just have to disagree.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yo threw a simulated game today. So basically him and Greinke are in the same situation. Only difference is Greinke's work will come in a game.

[Baldkin]

You're ignoring an entire season's worth of statistics and using faulty logic. There are explainable reasons why someone may have a higher ERA when your team scores more runs. If the Brewers are up 9-0 then Marcum is going to concentrate more on throwing strikes then hitting corners which can easily lead to more hits and runs.

You are ignoring 100's of years of pitching data. This logic just doesn't happen. Even the Great Jack Morris didn't do it.

He also didn't show a big jump in his RA when he was ahead by a lot of runs, and in fact, his RA

when he had at least a seven-run cushion is better than his career

mark. Morris wasn't turning a lot of 8-0 games into 8-4 games.

I want Greinke getting as many post season starts as possible, so I want him pitching Game 1, no matter where it is played.

[Oxy]

You're ignoring an entire season's worth of statistics and using faulty logic. There are explainable reasons why someone may have a higher ERA when your team scores more runs. If the Brewers are up 9-0 then Marcum is going to concentrate more on throwing strikes then hitting corners which can easily lead to more hits and runs.

You are ignoring 100's of years of pitching data. This logic just doesn't happen. Even the Great Jack Morris didn't do it.

He also didn't show a big jump in his RA when he was ahead by a lot of runs, and in fact, his RA

when he had at least a seven-run cushion is better than his career

mark. Morris wasn't turning a lot of 8-0 games into 8-4 games.

I want Greinke getting as many post season starts as possible, so I want him pitching Game 1, no matter where it is played.

I'd say that you are ignoring common sense, which says that different guys will react differently to being up by many runs. Some guys may relax more in an 8-0 game which may cause them to throw BETTER than they would in a 1-0 game. Some guys may lose focus because of the big lead. Some guys may purposely throw more strikes to avoid walking batters which may cause more line drives and hits OR may cause more quick innings which would allow the pitcher to go deeper into the game and again put up better stats than he normally would.

 

On the whole (taking everybody's statistics and lumping them together), you see nothing--perhaps because all of these factors cancel each other out, or perhaps because there is nothing there to see. As Russ said in the other thread, an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence; particularly when trying to use stats from ALL players to say that ONE particular player isn't affected by circumstances. It's just extremely poor use of stats.

[paul253]

I want Greinke getting as many post season starts as possible, so I want him pitching Game 1, no matter where it is played.

 

What am I missing here?

 

At Miller Park:

Greinke: 10-0 3.13 ERA 89 IP 80 hits 21 walks 115 K's opponents batted .237 off of him

Marcum: 5-4 4.81 ERA 103 IP 103 hits 34 walks 76 K's opponents batted .251 off of him

 

Seems pretty clear to me Greinke has pitched better at Miller Park then Marcum has.

 

Away from Miller Park

Greinke: 5-6 4.70 ERA 76.2 IP 76 hits 23 walks 82 K's opponents hit .255 off of him

Marcum: 8-3 2.21 ERA 97.2 IP 72 hits 23 walks 82 K's opponents hit .202 off of him

 

Seems pretty clear to me that Marcum has pitched much better away from Miller Park than Greinke has.

 

It also seems pretty clear that Marcum has pitched much better away from Miller Park then he has at Miller Park and that Greinke has pitched much better at Miller Park than he has away from Miller Park. If Game 7 is away from Miller Park I want Shaun Marcum starting. If Game 7 is at Miller Park I want Zack Greinke starting. It's not a knock on Greinke. It's just that Marcum has been really good away from Miller Park.

[GB12]

So since the Dodgers blew it tonight, it will be Gallardo game 1, Marcum game 2, and Grienke game 3

[endaround]

I'd say that you are ignoring common sense, which says that different guys will react differently to being up by many runs. Some guys may relax more in an 8-0 game which may cause them to throw BETTER than they would in a 1-0 game. Some guys may lose focus because of the big lead. Some guys may purposely throw more strikes to avoid walking batters which may cause more line drives and hits OR may cause more quick innings which would allow the pitcher to go deeper into the game and again put up better stats than he normally would.

 

On the whole (taking everybody's statistics and lumping them together), you see nothing--perhaps because all of these factors cancel each other out, or perhaps because there is nothing there to see. As Russ said in the other thread, an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence; particularly when trying to use stats from ALL players to say that ONE particular player isn't affected by circumstances. It's just extremely poor use of stats.

In 2010 Marcum's ERA declined with the amount of runs the Jays scored. Its random.

Yes Marcum has pitched better away from Miller Park but there is no reason to expect that to continue. You have a 50 point swing in BABIP and a strand rate of 82% when he is away.

[jeffy]

So since the Dodgers blew it tonight, it will be Gallardo game 1, Marcum game 2, and Grienke game 3

 

Which means they're doomed unless the Brewers lose and AZ wins, because otherwise Marcum and Grienke are pitching in the wrong places in the NLDS, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[EnglishCream]

With the Dodgers blowing it last night I think we need about a six-run first inning tonight so that Grienke doesn't have to pitch more than 2 or 3 innings.

[jhart05]

I wouldn't say they are doomed. I would say it's not the ideal rotation.

 

Laugh it off, dismiss it all you want, say it's random, quote whatever sabermetrics stats you want, I don't care. I'll go with what I've seen from each pitcher in the current year. Is it "Suppan starting a playoff game" bad? No, of course not. I'm just a little less comfortable with starting Marcum in Game 2 in Miller Park, than I would be with Greinke in that slot.

[rluzinski]

Well, this announcement makes Yo in Game 1 and Greinke in Game 2 a lock.

So we'll be doubly screwed if the Brewers don't seize homefield advantage now because adjustments aren't being made home/road.

 

I would personally weigh that very little. While we expect players in general to perform better at home, Greinke's 2011 home/road split is flukishly large. In contrast, he actually had a better ERA on the road last year. As is with many of the seemingly unexplainable splits baseball fans latch onto, the most likely explanation for it is going to be largely centered around luck. If someone wants to use it as a tiebreaker, great.

The Brewers aren't competing in the playoffs next season or last. They're competing in the playoffs this season. And this season he's struggling on the road, while that's occurring to Marcum at home. You don't think they are aware of that which in turn effects their performance until there's a game or two which turns things around for him in that department. Athletes in sports (especially in baseball which requires preciseness of movement) are streaky overall and situationally and they'll acknowledge it comes down to confidence. You'd refer to that as "anecdotal evidence", a buzz-phrase to deligitimize the information, but you could also classify it qualitative research. And while quantitative research is more reliable on average because it's not as prone to bias (although it is from the interpreter), qualitative research has the potential to be more valid because more variables can be accounted for. For example, you're using standard deviation to pawn off extreme ups and downs as luck because they more or less average themselves out over extended periods of time. However, what is to say there aren't causes to the ups and downs though, especially when numerous ballplayers themselves would tell you that is the case. The events aren't anomalies if they are extreme and frequent. Rather, the opposite is the case. They are tendencies. Greinke and Marcum have established a tendency in the present which requires being adjusted to if possible.

And the Brewers established this year that they can't win on the road. It was a tendency! ...until they started doing great on the road and that tendency disappeared. The problem is that people in general have a poor feeling for when luck is no longer the most likely explanation for some statistical anomaly (me included). 162 games seems like an eternity! If a tendency can keep up for that long, it FEELS like it has to be real. But when you actually start running the numbers, you will often find that statistical noise is still likely the largest contributor (although no one will ever know for sure). It's that damned buzz word, "regression to the mean".

You are suggesting that there might be a skill-based cause for Greike's extreme home/road split this year and you may be correct. Who knows? But you are absolutely incorrect in suggesting that their is evidence that it is an "established tendency". Perhaps Grienke has a larger than average expected home/road split but the statistical evidence for it is weak.

And you speak or quantitative evidence but provide none. You didn't even provide anecdotal evidence. All I see is your

100% unsubstantiated opinion (sprinkled in with a condemnation of quantitative research). If you have some actual evidence (other than the split itself of course), please share it.

 

[RockCoCougars]

Anyone else a little worried that Marcum, Grienke and Wolf have all had bad last starts? Just as the bats have been starting to wake up too.

[rluzinski]

Anyone else a little worried that Marcum, Grienke and Wolf have all had bad last starts? Just as the bats have been starting to wake up too.

Wolf would be the only one that might worry me a bit, as there is a possibility that it is injury related (although probably not likely?). Otherwise, it is probably just the normal ups and downs that all players go though (including the Brewers offense right now). Let's just hope they are all "up" for the playoffs.

[endaround]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

[RockCoCougars]

I do like how people are all just ignoring that Gallardo has had a bad September.

 

Without looking, he's been OK to me. Marcum has been bad, Wolf has been borderline bad, and Greinke was bad the last time out. I'm mostly concerned with Marcum at this point, but hoping that Greinke pitches well tonight.