2011 Playoff rotation

[jeffy]

There was talk during the game tonight that they would piggyback Yo and Greinke on Wednesday to better set them up for the first two games. Roenicke also confirmed he'd go with 4 starters.

 

The "probable pitchers" list is indicating that that seems to be the plan: Gallardo may be limited to just a few innings in his final start to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Zack Greinke may pitch in relief as well behind Gallardo.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers....chers/index.jsp?c_id=mil

 

In the 5 game series, it kinda really only matters who pitches game 1, as that is the only guy that will get two starts. If they get to the next round, then it is the opposite, each gets potentially two starts except the #4. So in a way, the only decisions that really matter are who pitches game 1 in the NLDS (not Wolf, as he is scheduled to start Tuesday) and then who pitches game 4 in the NLCS (Wolf, I assume).

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, that makes sense. Really, I think I would be comfortable with Yo, Greinke, or Marcum starting Game 1. I'd prefer Yo or Greinke though. If I had to choose, I would pick Yo for sure though. I think he can handle the pressure of a Game 1 and possible Game 5 the most. Marcum hasn't been good at home for some reason, and I guess Greinke would be a good bet too since he's been so good at home. I think it'll be either Yo or Greinke in Game 1. I think it'll be those 2 in Games 1 and 2 most likely. The only way that won't happen is if Roenicke decides he needs Yo for a full start on Wednesday. Then he'd probably go Greinke, Marcum, Yo, Wolf.

[ELCABALLO45]

Yo

Greinke

Marcum

Wolf

 

That is how I would go.

 

Here is an interesting titbit at the end of the article today in the JS.

 

 

In a perfect world, the Brewers would have enough of a cushion that

Roenicke would be able to align his starters heading into the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Instead, he'll have to ride with Shaun Marcum on Monday, Randy Wolf on Tuesday and Yovani Gallardo on Wednesday as Milwaukee closes out against the Pirates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gallardo

would have been a prime candidate to start Game 1 on Saturday, but

factoring in his necessary five days of rest he wouldn't be available to

pitch until Game 3.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"I think

we're going to kind of need to do that," Roenicke said of keeping his

rotation in order. "I don't necessarily want to, but Arizona's playing

so well, and it is important to us to try to finish with the best

record. So we may have to."

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/130539883.html

[jeffy]

Seems like, assuming they may need a win on Wednesday to stay ahead of AZ, the NLDS plan may be Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Wolf, Grienke. Gallardo in game 3 sets him up for game one of NLCS.

 

If that goes according to plan, and the NLDS does go 5, then they could plan on NLCS going Gallardo, Marcum, Greinke, Wolf, Gallardo, Marcum, Greinke.

[JohnBriggs12]

With 2 off days between Wednesday and the playoff opener, I think they can go with 3 IP (45-50 pitches) for each of Greinke and Gallardo if they need a win and still come back with either to start on Saturday. Personally, I'd go with Gallardo in the opener. He's been on fire recently and will be slightly more rested. Plus he has playoff experience and that is key in the opener.

[endaround]

And I'd go with your best pitcher in case you need him for game 5 and that's Greinke and it really isn't that close.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Greinke being so good at home probably makes it a slam dunk for him to get Games 1 and 5 if we get home field. At least that's what I would guess the coaches would think. If we were guaranteed not to have home field I honestly believe they'd hold Greinke back to Game 3. Roenicke likes to play by the numbers, and in this case it's probably a smart move when you can do it. Won't really have a choice in the later round as much.

[endaround]

No Roenicke likes to play it by meaningless numbers, like home/road splits over less than a season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

How is Greinke being 10-0 at Miller Park this year meaningless?

[rluzinski]

How is Greinke being 10-0 at Miller Park this year meaningless?

I would personally weigh that very little. While we expect players in general to perform better at home, Greinke's 2011 home/road split is flukishly large. In contrast, he actually had a better ERA on the road last year. As is with many of the seemingly unexplainable splits baseball fans latch onto, the most likely explanation for it is going to be largely centered around luck. If someone wants to use it as a tiebreaker, great.

[StearnsFTW]

Greinke being so good at home probably makes it a slam dunk for him to get Games 1 and 5 if we get home field. At least that's what I would guess the coaches would think. If we were guaranteed not to have home field I honestly believe they'd hold Greinke back to Game 3. Roenicke likes to play by the numbers, and in this case it's probably a smart move when you can do it. Won't really have a choice in the later round as much.

I would start Greinke in game 1, but that wouldn't be my reasoning.

 

I'd start him in game 1 (and a possible game 5) because he's their best pitcher.

[PrinceEatMeat]

How is Greinke being 10-0 at Miller Park this year meaningless?

I would personally weigh that very little. While we expect players in general to perform better at home, Greinke's 2011 home/road split is flukishly large. In contrast, he actually had a better ERA on the road last year. As is with many of the seemingly unexplainable splits baseball fans latch onto, the most likely explanation for it is going to be largely centered around luck. If someone wants to use it as a tiebreaker, great.

I do want to use it as a tiebreaker. Between him and Gallardo for Game 1. I go with Greinke because of this stat.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just saw on Haudricourt's twitter that Roenicke told him Yo won't throw on Wednesday. Basically said he gets the feeling the Roenicke has all but announced him as the Game 1 starter.

[Yeti73]

If Grienke goes on Sunday, why not throw Marcum, Wolf and 3 IP of Grienke and Estrada on Wednesday?

 

It probably doesn't merit its own subject, but I"m assuming there won't be any roster surprises. I think it only comes down to Wilson vs Green, but I could be wrong and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Here is what I see:

 

Pitchers (11):

 

Ax

Estrada

Yo

Greinke

Hawk

Loe

Marcum

Narvdog

KRod

Saito

Wolf

 

Catchers (2): Kottaras, Lucroy

INF (7): Yuni, Counsell, Fielder, McGehee, Weeks, Green, Jerry Hairston

OF (5): Braun, GoGo, Hart, Kotsay, Morgan

[jeffy]

Just saw on Haudricourt's twitter that Roenicke told him Yo won't throw on Wednesday. Basically said he gets the feeling the Roenicke has all but announced him as the Game 1 starter.

 

Brewers.com now shows pitcher TBA for Wednesday and says: This is Yovani Gallardo's day to pitch, and he still may appear for a brief postseason tune-up. Ditto for Zack Greinke, who would like to pitch to stay sharp between his final regular-season start and the playoffs.

[MoreTrife]

Just saw on Haudricourt's twitter that Roenicke told him Yo won't throw on Wednesday. Basically said he gets the feeling the Roenicke has all but announced him as the Game 1 starter.

 

Brewers.com now shows pitcher TBA for Wednesday and says: This is Yovani Gallardo's day to pitch, and he still may appear for a brief postseason tune-up. Ditto for Zack Greinke, who would like to pitch to stay sharp between his final regular-season start and the playoffs.

So maybe some sort of tandem pitching? 3 innings for yo, 3 innings for greinke? that makes the best of the situation i think.

[jhart05]

I still think you have to pitch Marcum on the road. "Ho-Marcum", for whatever reason, just isn't as good as "Ro-Marcum".

 

If they get home field: Gallardo and Greinke at home. Doesn't matter who goes first, you can throw either one in Game 5 on regular rest.

 

Gallardo and Marcum, if they don't get home field. Greinke gets Game 3 here.

 

 

In a 7-game series, assuming they are at Philly.

I like Gallardo for games 1 & 5, Marcum gets two road starts with games 2 & 6, Greinke then gets 3 & 7.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, that looks good to me. It's pretty easy to get Marcum on the road there, so I say do it. Give Wolf the 1 start, and then Yo and Greinke get 1 home and 1 road.

[Pudster13]

Take Two...

 

Here is how I think manager Ron Roneicke will set the Playoff rotation:

(#)=days rest

 

NLDS

Game 1- Saturday, October 1st- RHP Yovani Gallardo (7)

Game 2- Sunday, October 2nd- RHP Zack Greinke (6)

Game 3- Tuesday, October 4th- RHP Shaun Marcum (7)

Game 4- Wednesday, October 5th (if ness)- LHP Randy Wolf (8)

Game 5- Friday, October 7th (if ness)- RHP Yovani Gallardo (5)

 

NLCS (depending on how many games it takes us to win NLDS- assuming 5 for now)

Game 1- Sunday, October 9th- RHP Zack Greinke (6)

Game 2- Monday, October 10th- RHP Shaun Marcum (5)

Game 3- Wednesday, October 12th- RHP Randy Wolf (6)

Game 4- Thursday, October 13th- RHP Yovani Gallardo (5)

Game 5- Friday, October 14th (if ness)- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 6- Sunday, October 16th- (if ness)- RHP Shaun Marcum (5)

Game 7- Monday, October 17th- (if ness)- RHP Yovani Gallardo (3)

 

World Series (depending on how many games it takes us to win NLCS- assuming 7 for now)

Game 1- Wednesday, October 19th at Miller Park- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 2- Thursday, October 20th at Miller Park- LHP Randy Wolf (7)

Game 3- Saturday, October 22nd at AL Park- RHP Shaun Marcum (5)

Game 4- Sunday, October 23rd at AL Park- RHP Yovani Gallardo (5)

Game 5- Monday, October 24th at AL Park (if ness)- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 6- Wednesday, October 26th at Miller Park (if ness)- LHP Randy Wolf (5)

Game 7- Thursday, October 27th at Miller Park (if ness)- RHP Shaun Marcum (4) or RHP Yovani Gallardo (3)

[PrinceEatMeat]

Here's some easy changes to make it better. This puts Gallardo and Greinke on a pretty much regular schedule the whole time. Just gotta decide whether or not they would want Marcum or Wolf with 2 WS games or 2 NLCS games. Can't really predict how it would all work out though.

 

Game 1- Saturday, October 1st- RHP Yovani Gallardo (7)

Game 2- Sunday, October 2nd- RHP Zack Greinke (6)

Game 3- Tuesday, October 4th- RHP Shaun Marcum (7)

Game 4- Wednesday, October 5th (if ness)- LHP Randy Wolf (8)

Game 5- Friday, October 7th (if ness)- RHP Yovani Gallardo (5)

 

NLCS (depending on how many games it takes us to win NLDS- assuming 5 for now)

Game 1- Sunday, October 9th- RHP Zack Greinke (6)

Game 2- Monday, October 10th- RHP Shaun Marcum (5)

Game 3- Wednesday, October 12th- RHP Yovani Gallardo (4)

Game 4- Thursday, October 13th- LHP Randy Wolf (7)

Game 5- Friday, October 14th (if ness)- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 6- Sunday, October 16th- (if ness)- RHP Shaun Marcum (5)

Game 7- Monday, October 17th- (if ness)- RHP Yovani Gallardo (4)

 

World Series (depending on how many games it takes us to win NLCS- assuming 7 for now)

Game 1- Wednesday, October 19th at Miller Park- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 2- Thursday, October 20th at Miller Park- LHP Randy Wolf (7)

Game 3- Saturday, October 22nd at AL Park- RHP Yovani Gallardo (4)

Game 4- Sunday, October 23rd at AL Park- RHP Shaun Marcum (6)

Game 5- Monday, October 24th at AL Park (if ness)- RHP Zack Greinke (4)

Game 6- Wednesday, October 26th at Miller Park (if ness)- LHP Randy Wolf (5)

Game 7- Thursday, October 27th at Miller Park (if ness)- RHP Yovani Gallardo (4)

[markedman5]

So it looks like its been decided.

 

Gallardo gets game 1.

 

Haudricourt Tom

#Brewers have announced RHP Zack Greinke for Wednesday in season finale. Probably will pitch inning or two.

 

 

http://twitter.com/#!/Haudricourt/status/118767392322093056

[PrinceEatMeat]

Well, this announcement makes Yo in Game 1 and Greinke in Game 2 a lock.

[Bernman23]

Well, this announcement makes Yo in Game 1 and Greinke in Game 2 a lock.

So we'll be doubly screwed if the Brewers don't seize homefield advantage now because adjustments aren't being made home/road.

 

How is Greinke being 10-0 at Miller Park this year meaningless?

I

would personally weigh that very little. While we expect players in

general to perform better at home, Greinke's 2011 home/road split is

flukishly large. In contrast, he actually had a better ERA on the road

last year. As is with many of the seemingly unexplainable splits

baseball fans latch onto, the most likely explanation for it is going to

be largely centered around luck. If someone wants to use it as a

tiebreaker, great.

The Brewers aren't competing in the playoffs next season or last. They're competing in the playoffs this season. And this season he's struggling on the road, while that's occurring to Marcum at home. You don't think they are aware of that which in turn effects their performance until there's a game or two which turns things around for him in that department. Athletes in sports (especially in baseball which requires preciseness of movement) are streaky overall and situationally and they'll acknowledge it comes down to confidence. You'd refer to that as "anecdotal evidence", a buzz-phrase to deligitimize the information, but you could also classify it qualitative research. And while quantitative research is more reliable on average because it's not as prone to bias (although it is from the interpreter), qualitative research has the potential to be more valid because more variables can be accounted for. For example, you're using standard deviation to pawn off extreme ups and downs as luck because they more or less average themselves out over extended periods of time. However, what is to say there aren't causes to the ups and downs though, especially when numerous ballplayers themselves would tell you that is the case. The events aren't anomalies if they are extreme and frequent. Rather, the opposite is the case. They are tendencies. Greinke and Marcum have established a tendency in the present which requires being adjusted to if possible.

[pebadger]

Yo in Game 1 is a lock, and probably should be. Game 2 is still open. Marcum will be on full rest for Game 2. It could be that Greinke is being prepped for either 2 or 3 depending on opponent.

 

Home field is certainly desirable, but it's not the end all, be-all. Yo and Greinke are both more important moving forward in Games 1 thru 3 of the NLDS (and then hopefully beyond) than they are being used up on Wednesday.

 

Tired of the underlying notion that the Brewers are in a world of trouble unless everything lines up just so for them and that every decision must be optimized to a degree of precision that's not measurable. It's like complaining about a "spring training lineup" that scored 8 runs.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/130666533.html

 

It's now official. Marcum Game 2 if tomorrow is needed to clinch. Otherwise Greinke will only pitch a few innings and take Game 2. I'd like to clinch tonight, and then have Greinke start Game 2 at home.