Entering the final home stand

[pretendastronaut]

I was typing this as a response to some talk in the last game thread, but seeing as it's an off day, and doesn't pertain to one game, I'm posting it here for fodder for the final 6 games. It seems half of the fan-base is still on edge that the Brewers won't close this down, which to me is being pretty pessimistic, and I'm still seeing 'choking' thrown around to much, in my opinion.

 

The Brewers aren't playing the exciting baseball they were from late July through August, you can't argue that, but nobody sustains the pace the Brewers had. To say they're choking is simply not honestly evaluating the situation.

 

Since the day we first got up 10.5 games, our largest lead;

 

Brewers : 11-11

Cardinals : 17-5

Phillies : 13-11

Braves : 11-14

 

The fact is the Cardinals are playing their best stretch of baseball this season, while the Brewers have been playing just okay baseball. The Brewers aren't choking, the Cardinals are playing really good baseball, at the right time. The Cardinals are 15 games over .500 now. Before this run, they'd only been 10 or more games over .500 for 3 days all season. The Brewers have been 10 games or more over .500 since July 30, and 20 games over since August 15 and are going to finish at least 20 games over.

 

Hats off to the Cardinals for playing tough (especially against top teams) and still being in the conversation, but they're still left with almost no margin for error and they're focusing on Atlanta at this point, not us. If Atlanta limps through their remaining games at 2-4, the Cardinals have to go 5-2. The possibility is certainly there, but they don't have room for error. The Cardinals have not won 5 in a row all season, they've currently won 4 in a row.

 

Now, if you want to talk about a team that's choking, see Boston:

 

Red Sox : 7-17

 

And even there, they're still likely to hold onto the Wild Card.

 

The Brewers are about to open up the final 2 home series, against 2 teams they're a combined 14-2 against this season. I think the Brewers win 2 games minimum this weekend, mix in a Cardinal loss in the next 4, and the division is won Saturday or Sunday. (I'm going to all 3, just in case though!)

[dadofandrew]

The Phillies have lost 5 in a row since clinching the other night. All teams have bad stretches and good ones. The irony to me is, no one, including the media, seem to be able to figure out why. BOS has a 6 ERA in September, yet the focus in on Carl Crawford and Reddick and Salty the C. Yes, Youkilis is injured, but it's tough to win when you have to score 7.

 

To be honest, much of ATL's and MIL's "struggles" can be directly traced to who they've been playing, SL and PHIL.

[dlk9s]

I like to think of it this way. The Brewers and Cards have a combined 13 games remaining. We only need THREE of them to go our way to clinch.

 

Yeah, yeah, I know...stay ahead of the D-backs, etc.

[TooLiveBrew]

Piggybacking off this thread, I think the worst I can predict the Brewers doing the rest of the way is 3-3. 4-2 seems much more likely. Obviously, if the Brewers go 3-3, that means that no other team can do anything to keep them out of the playoffs.

 

Plus, the D-Backs play three against SF & three against LA. That's a remaining opponents' W% of .521, while the Brewers' remaining opponents come in at .449. Not to mention that SF & LA have played much better lately than FLA & PIT.

 

Even though I've been pretty frustrated with specific weaknesses on this team, exacerbated by the importance of each individual win, I think the Brewers are going to wind up with the 2-seed for the NL. That's basically a best-case scenario for this team, and I'm pretty sure 100% of Brewerfan would've taken that if offered before the beginning of the season.

[dlk9s]

It really is amazing how a 162-game season can come down to the last game or two.

[owbc]

It will be interesting to see how the team responds to the big series this weekend. They have been loose and relaxed the whole year, but the atmosphere is going to be different starting tomorrow night. The pressure is starting to build, and we are only 9 days away from the start of the playoffs. Miller Park will be packed full, but the crowd will get very tense and nervous if they fall behind.

 

Also, lets have some fun this week. This is why we are all Brewers fans.

[paul253]

The Brewers really need to play good baseball this week. They are playing two teams they should beat. And even though they are technically 1 game up on Arizona, they are essentially tied because Arizona holds the tiebreaker. That means if Arizona gains one game on Milwaukee Arizona has home field advantage. Short of a historical meltdown, I think the division is all but wrapped up. Let's focus on home field now.

[brewmann04]

The brewers need to split the 6 games and hopefully with Yo and Grienke going we 3/4 the way there.

[brwrsfan]

Let's make the playoffs first, then worry about the seeds. If we don't win 3 of the last 6, there is no guarantee we even make the playoffs. Not with the way the Cardinals are playing (up 2-0 in the 4th again today). I know we should be concerned with Arizona, but honestly, none of that matters if we can't put the Cardinals away first.

[Invader3K]

I'm hoping they go 4-2 (or better, obviously), and I think that's definitively achievable.

[paul253]

Let's make the playoffs first, then worry about the seeds. If we don't win 3 of the last 6, there is no guarantee we even make the playoffs.

 

I guess what I was getting at was more of a "let's play like we are tied" as opposed to locking up the division then packing it in like Philly has. The Brewers are at home playing two pretty bad teams. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to take care of business on their own. Remember going 3-3 is only required if St. Louis wins their final 7 games, which is a pretty tall task. The Brewers need to be better than 3-3 though.

[brewmann04]

I would agree but don"t like the way they are playing

[moofnelson]

Let's make the playoffs first, then worry about the seeds. If we don't win 3 of the last 6, there is no guarantee we even make the playoffs.

 

I guess what I was getting at was more of a "let's play like we are tied" as opposed to locking up the division then packing it in like Philly has. The Brewers are at home playing two pretty bad teams. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to take care of business on their own. Remember going 3-3 is only required if St. Louis wins their final 7 games, which is a pretty tall task. The Brewers need to be better than 3-3 though.

 

Winning 6 in a row against the Cubs and Astros is not such a tall order. The Brewers won 15 in a row against those two over a 1 month span recently. That's why the Brewers have to play like the Cardinals are going to win the rest of their games. If the Brewers lose Friday's game, the noose will get tighter around their neck for each subsequent game.

[paul253]

That's why the Brewers have to play like the Cardinals are going to win

the rest of their games. If the Brewers lose Friday's game, the noose

will get tighter around their neck for each subsequent game.

 

I think we want the same thing here. But what I DON'T want is the Brewers to enter this home stand with the idea that they only have to win 3 games.

[markedman5]

Has a team ever won their last 11 games when they needed to do it to make the playoffs?

 

I know the Rockies went 14-1 a few years ago but huge september rallies usually fall short.

 

Cards are red hot though so I guess its possible...just figure they are bound to lose at least 1 more.

 

http://sportsillustrated....index.html#ixzz1YeDPxOae

[rluzinski]

I have full faith that the Brewers will continue to try and win every game that they play.

[H4P]

As the discussion went on in this thread, the Cards lost an absolute heartbreaker today. After all those come from behind wins, they choke up 6 in the ninth.

 

Someone said this but it amazes me how you can follow this for 6 months over 162 games and it comes down to a few days in September.

 

I imagine I'm not the only one who feels a lot better with this thing at 2 rather than 3 going into the weekend.

 

They've been playing well at home all year. I see a 5-1 finish with Braun taking the batting title and MVP and playing the Braves in a home series to open the NLDS.

[pebadger]

I prefer that the Brewers just take on the Badger football mantra for these last 6: 1-0.

 

The would be well served to then carry that over into the postseason. Thinking about a series implicitly means you are spending time thinking about tomorrow. They just need to focus on the game before them and they'll be fine.

[Raw Biz]

I prefer that the Brewers just take on the Badger football mantra for these last 6: 1-0.

 

The would be well served to then carry that over into the postseason. Thinking about a series implicitly means you are spending time thinking about tomorrow. They just need to focus on the game before them and they'll be fine.

I would think that's the case for the most part with just about every pro athlete. Obviously there is some scoreboard-watching and they know they only need 2 more wins but I would think their focus is on each game before them. That being said, I think it's time to retire the "one game at a time" cliche.

[pebadger]

Sure it's a cliche, but at this point in this season it becomes a bit more apt in terms of baseball. Over the course of 162 there are times in games when you can sort of write one off, or at least makes moves that are not optimal with a view towards that day's game but which hopefully pay dividends later. (Example: having someone in the pen just take a beating while eating some innings). I think some players sometimes get into that "we'll get 'em tomorrow" mode as well. To the extent that you can "shake off" a loss mentally that's a good thing. To the extent that it's verging a form of procrastination it's not.

 

To me the baseball playoffs are a lot like taking the top 8 players from a 72-hole stroke-play golf tournament and then having them decide the winner of the tournament by conducting a match-play tournament. Same sport, way different mindset (and tactically different, too). I think a good argument can be made that the mindset of baseball teams in the playoffs needs to change as well, and it starts with truly focusing only on that day's game. I think the good managers/coaches can drive home the truth in the "1-0" idea in a way that the guys who are only parroting the old cliche can't.

 

I don't think RR should really change things up now, but I do think that from the moment the division is clinched they need to really keep fighting it out with the idea of taking the home field prize for themselves without regard to what is going on anywhere else. Maybe even resort to the old Packers trick of not even posting the AZ scores out on the outfield boards.