2012 First Baseman

[reillymcshane]

Unless McGehee has a huge post-season (if he even plays) I can't see him being on the team next year. Is he not arbitration eligible now? With his past performance he's looking at over a million, probably more like 3-5. That's way too much for a guy who's going to take home the crown for worse BA in the league (tough to do with Yuniesky Betancourt on the team as well).

Casey is arby eligible for the first time in 2012. Most 1st year starters, even mediocre ones, get at least $2 million. So I imagine $2-3 million for him. if the team is convinced he's lost it, they should just non-tender. maybe resign at a lower salary and incentives - if he's open to it. He might not be. But i find it hard to think any team would offer him that much on the open market. he's just been dreadful this year.

[endaround]

No many first year arby player get nowhere near that (see Carlos Gomez). McGehee might get $2m which is fine for a bench player.

[yoshii8]

I'd pick Gamel over pretty much every free agent option out there, of course besides Pujols and Fielder. I hope he gets a chance if we don't resign Fielder.

 

Another possibility would be Josh Willingham. He played a lot of 1B in the minor leagues, and is a pretty good hitter. I'm not sure if he'd be willing, or would be able to play 1st well on an everyday basis.

[ilikewisco]

If Melvin offered Peralta and Gamel for Yonder Alonso, would the Reds do that, is that too much? Or maybe Marcum and Gamel? I know these players probably won't be traded within the division, but the Reds could use pitching and possibly Gamel. I think they used Alonso at 3rd a few times this year. From what I saw of Alonso this year, he looks good. Obviously not an OFer though. I guess if Gamel can be productive they don't do this, but as of today I would bet on Alonso to have the better year, and probably career. Or maybe try to make a move for Montero, but I would rather have a lefty.

 

As far as free agents, I would hope they give Gamel the first chance in the spring and have a RH option brought in. I hope they invite Katin to spring and play him at first, and I like the idea of Green, Mcgehee and Gamel available to fill out the corners. I think I would like Alonso at first a lot more though.

[BrycePecore]

Personally, I would like to see the Brewers pursue an solid RF option who isn't going to break the bank like J.D. Drew. He could be had for $5M/yr which allows Hart to move to 1B. As for 3B, I don't have faith in either McGehee or Green for that matter since he demonstrated his inability to hit off speed pitches. I would look to sign someone like Wilson Betemit, who likely could be had for less than $2M/yr, since he plays decent defense and is a switch hitter. At SS, I think the DM needs find someone who can shore up the defense like a Clint Barmes or even Marco Scutaro if Boston decides to go with Jed Lowrie and doesn't pick up his option. Both could be had for $4M/yr. With the remainder of the Brewers available payroll sign a couple of veteran relievers from the following pool to help replace the loss of K-Rod, Hawkins and Siato:

Koji Uehara ($3M)

Frank Francisco ($4M)

Mike McDougal ($1.5M)

Bill Bray ($1M)

Joel Zumaya ($2.5M)

Todd Coffey ($1.5M)

 

If you estimate Marcum signs for $6.5M, Morgan and Gomez for a combined $3M, and DM spends $5M on the remaining bench players (Kottaras $600K, Gamel/Green $400K, Hairston Jr $2M, OF Power Bat $2M) their starting day payroll would be roughly $90.5M which would provide them with plenty of depth in both the bullpen and starting rotation. I know the payroll seems a bit high but the Brewers are going to the playoffs and looking to break the franchise's single season attendance record so their should be extra money available next season.

[JohnBriggs12]

J D Drew isn't a "solid RF option". He turns 36 in November and he "slugged" .306 this year. We are in the post steroid era. Guys that decline that dramatically at that age are likely finished. Drew isn't going to sniff $5 million next year. He'll be lucky (if he gets a major league deal) to get half that.

 

Count me out on Coffey and MacDougal too. Coffey's a "been there done that", and McDougal has been disappointment for most of his career. Don't let his ERA this year fool you. His WHIP was still a lousy 1.482. He walks way too many.

[reillymcshane]

I would look to sign someone like Wilson Betemit, who likely could be had for less than $2M/yr, since he plays decent defense and is a switch hitter.

I've always read that Betemit is really a bad fielder. Just going to by what I recall. Never really seen him play much.

 

His UZR on fangraphs is pretty brutal (-8.0, -12.7, -4.9 the last three years).

 

I'd like to hear from people that have seen him play for extended periods at 3B.

[reillymcshane]

I really don't want a fading veteran bat - which is what you get for $5 million. More than note, you end up with guys like Lyle Overbay, Derrick Lee and Aubrey Huff. Fading hitters with little speed, diminishing power and defense. Sure you can catch lightning in a bottle - Berkman for example. But more than likely you end up with mediocre play. I'd rather spend $400,000 and gamble Gamel can produce mediocre (and maybe better) results.

 

You can spend more - $8-10 million - and go after some better players - Cuddyer, Carlos Pena, Josh Willingham - but they aren't that young either (all three will either be 33 or 34 by the start or shortly after the season starts), and will likely require a multi-year contract. That's a big risk - guys moving into their (likely) fading years. That leads you to having Aubrey Huff on your team for two more years at $10 million a year. All three guys mentioned above - Cuddyer, Pena, Willingham - have had injuries over the past couple of years as well.

 

I look at it as we can get a solid player for around $10 million a year. But the player isn't going to suddenly break out with a superstar season (again, Lance Berkman aside). If anything, they will produce similar results - or worse - as they age.

 

That's why I argue you throw the dice on a young player who you feel can produce average results - but at a much reduced price. You put those savings back into the team with pitching (Greinke and/or Marcum). Plus, if your young player fails, you can cut bait early on him and have financial flexibility to add a stop gap if necessary.

 

Some people talk about not wanting rookies in the line up for a contending team. I understand it, but I think they offer greater rewards than a 'proven' veteran. They offer more upside (and downside), but at a much lower cost. Plus, with guys like Braun, Weeks, Hart and Barmes (I'm hoping for him at SS), you have 'proven vets' who can help young players thrive.

 

Those are my thoughts.

[RockCoCougars]

If Prince doesn't sign, I go with Gamel and a cheap RH hitting vet who is willing to come off the bench and can play first. I shudder at the thought of giving someone like Cuddyer big money.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Padres would be open to trading Kyle Blanks with Rizzo being their 1B of the future. I wonder if a Green or Gindl for Blanks trade would work.

[reillymcshane]

I wonder if the Padres would be open to trading Kyle Blanks with Rizzo being their 1B of the future. I wonder if a Green or Gindl for Blanks trade would work.

nate, tell us more of blanks. i know nothing about him.

[Hate those Rodents]

Gindl < Green. I have no problem trading Gindl for the right piece. I don't want to trade Green for what we'd get for him.

[nate82]

Blanks has bounced up and down on the Padres for the past three years. He can generate some power and is a right handed bat at worst he would be a platoon option with Gamel at 1B. He would be a decent power bat off the bench also. I'm not sure on his defense but he should be better than Fielder as he is listed as 6'6". He will be a bigger and better target at 1B than Prince currently is. He does strike out a lot though but he does have gap to gap power. He was ranked as the Padres 2nd best prospect behind Latos in 2009 so he is a legitimate prospect. I am just not sure what his value is as he has been rather disappointing in the majors so far. I believe he is a good buy low candidate who could easily be a good platoon partner with Gamel at 1B or even take the job as the 1B from Gamel completely.

Here is his minor league stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=blanks001kyl

[Hate those Rodents]

Blanks and Bartlett might be a good duo to go after. Maybe for Gindl and McGehee.

[JohnBriggs12]

I really don't want a fading veteran bat - which is what you get for $5 million. More than note, you end up with guys like Lyle Overbay, Derrick Lee and Aubrey Huff. Fading hitters with little speed, diminishing power and defense. Sure you can catch lightning in a bottle - Berkman for example. But more than likely you end up with mediocre play. I'd rather spend $400,000 and gamble Gamel can produce mediocre (and maybe better) results.

 

You can spend more - $8-10 million - and go after some better players - Cuddyer, Carlos Pena, Josh Willingham - but they aren't that young either (all three will either be 33 or 34 by the start or shortly after the season starts), and will likely require a multi-year contract. That's a big risk - guys moving into their (likely) fading years. That leads you to having Aubrey Huff on your team for two more years at $10 million a year. All three guys mentioned above - Cuddyer, Pena, Willingham - have had injuries over the past couple of years as well.

 

I look at it as we can get a solid player for around $10 million a year. But the player isn't going to suddenly break out with a superstar season (again, Lance Berkman aside). If anything, they will produce similar results - or worse - as they age.

 

That's why I argue you throw the dice on a young player who you feel can produce average results - but at a much reduced price. You put those savings back into the team with pitching (Greinke and/or Marcum). Plus, if your young player fails, you can cut bait early on him and have financial flexibility to add a stop gap if necessary.

 

Some people talk about not wanting rookies in the line up for a contending team. I understand it, but I think they offer greater rewards than a 'proven' veteran. They offer more upside (and downside), but at a much lower cost. Plus, with guys like Braun, Weeks, Hart and Barmes (I'm hoping for him at SS), you have 'proven vets' who can help young players thrive.

 

Those are my thoughts.

A guy who wouldn't be such a big risk (has just one year left on his deal) and likely could be had in the $8-10 million range (assuming the Astros agree to pick up 1/2 his 2012 salary and why wouldn't they?) is Carlos Lee. Lee's numbers haven't been great the last couple years, but he still has the knack to drive in runs (94 this year). He actually plays 1B reasonably well too. He has 5 and 10 rights, but it's reasonable to assume he'd waive them for another shot with the Brewers.

[yoshii8]

A guy that I would target is Daric Barton from Oakland, he is supposedly an elite defensive 1st baseman, and he had almost a .400 OBP in 2010. He was once a top prospect, but the A's now have Brandon Allen, Chris Carter and Kila Ka'aihue that can all play 1B. He had a torn labrun last season, and doesn't hit for much power, but he is supposed to be ready for spring training.

 

Carlos Lee and Kyle Blanks could also be interesting possibilities. Although none of this will matter once we re-sign Prince.

[JohnBriggs12]

Another name worth throwing out there is Ryan Doumit. It seems rather unlikely the Bucs will pick up his $7.25 million option.

 

Doumit has played sparingly at 1B in his career and it's questionable if he can handle the job defensively (thus the nickname "no mitt Doumit"), but when healthy and not having to focus on catching, he's been a pretty dangerous hitter.

[Hate those Rodents]

I really don't want a defensive first baseman. Hopefully whomever we play at first can handle the easy to defend position well enough. I care much more about having a big bat at that particular position.

[RockCoCougars]

I really don't want a defensive first baseman. Hopefully whomever we play at first can handle the easy to defend position well enough. I care much more about having a big bat at that particular position.

Agreed. Look at the playoff teams this year- most of them have a big hitter at first. I actually think that defense at first has been slightly undervalued historically, but here with Prince it seems overvalued- if that makes any sense.

[JohnBriggs12]

I really don't want a defensive first baseman. Hopefully whomever we play at first can handle the easy to defend position well enough. I care much more about having a big bat at that particular position.

Agreed. Look at the playoff teams this year- most of them have a big hitter at first. I actually think that defense at first has been slightly undervalued historically, but here with Prince it seems overvalued- if that makes any sense.

Agreed. Nobody remembers the Tony Muser's of the world.

[yoshii8]

Barton did put up a .273 .393 .405 line as a 24 year old hitting in Oakland, so I wouldn't put him in the Tony Muser category quite yet. I'm just saying that it's possible that he could be a good buy low candidate that at 26 still has a chance to be a good player. He brings two pretty important things to the table, plus defense and ability to get on base.

[RockCoCougars]

I really don't want a defensive first baseman. Hopefully whomever we play at first can handle the easy to defend position well enough. I care much more about having a big bat at that particular position.

Agreed. Look at the playoff teams this year- most of them have a big hitter at first. I actually think that defense at first has been slightly undervalued historically, but here with Prince it seems overvalued- if that makes any sense.

Agreed. Nobody remembers the Tony Muser's of the world.

But Wes Parker is forever immortalized due to his guest spot on the Brady Bunch. Keith Hernandez is still in the lexicon as well due to Seinfeld and the 'your beard is weird schtick'... Unfortunately, most around here remember his as the 'coach who got burned'. He probably would have been the next Brewer manager had that not happened, but that's a whole other topic.

[paul253]

If we are going to gamble on someone, why not gamble on Gamel? What more does he have to do to be given a shot? We will be losing a lot in the bullpen and need to restock it. We need to upgrade shortstop. We need a better bench than Josh Wilson, Craig Counsel and Mark Kotsay. In other words, we are going to have some pretty big issues next season and I'd prefer not to waste money on a first baseman. Why not just have an open competition for first base and third base next season between Gamel, Green, and McGehee? McGehee's value is nothing right now so you might as well keep him. Green has nothing left to prove in AAA, and neither does Gamel. All three can play third base, albeit none of them very well, and McGehee and Gamel can both play first. So why not just go into spring training with the three of them and the two best hitters play with the other being a pretty solid bench guy? Is Derek Lee or Lyle Overbay a better option for what they will cost? Overbay who got released by Pittsburgh this year and Derek Lee who is clearly on the downside of his career? I've seen Kyle Blanks' name thrown out. The same Kyle Blanks who couldn't hold a spot in San Diego's every day lineup and who has a career OBP of .315? Or trade away yet another prospect from an already terrible system to get a stop gap for a year or two? Are these options really better than some combination of Gamel, McGehee and Green?

[JohnBriggs12]

paul253,

 

You make some very good points, but until they actually make significant upgrades elsewhere which is not a given, 1B is an issue. I completely agree with you they should stay away from the likes of Overbay, Lee, and Blanks. But there are going to be better options that are proven major league producers available. The Astros would gladly give away Carlos Lee and still pick up plenty of salary. Other guys could be had too. There's been some speculation that the Marlins will make a hard push for Fielder. In addition to adding a big bat, they could use a veteran starter to bolster their rotation. Gaby Sanchez could be there for the taking for a Randy Wolf if the Marlins got Fielder and that would save a ton of cash that could be used in a upgrade at SS too since Sanchez is still pre-arby.

 

The fact is Gamel will turn 27 next year and he's not yet proven he's an everyday corner infielder in the big leagues. He might be able to do the job, and if they upgrade significantly elsewhere, it's probably worth taking that chance. Until they do they shouldn't rule out getting a proven guy.

[paul253]

The fact is Gamel will turn 27 next year and he's not yet proven he's an everyday corner infielder in the big leagues

 

He's never been given a chance though. It's not like he played for an extended period of time and just didn't cut it ala Kevin Barker.

 

The Brewers really only have two positions they need to upgrade from the past season, third and shortstop. I think third base you have to give Taylor Green his shot. Milwaukee got to where it is now by building around their home grown players and then adding strategic pieces like Greinke and Marcum. They shouldn't move away from that formula. Unfortunately their farm system, especially position player wise, is bare bones right now, but there are still a few guys that could contribute. I think Green and Gamel are two of those guys. They may prove me wrong, but you gotta let them try. Shortstop is an issue that needs to be addressed. Bullpen will be too if Saito and Hawkins don't resign. I'm just hoping the Brewers can survive another few seasons until Melvin and Co. can bring in some impact bats into the system.