Gallardo and Greinke post All-Star Break

[jjfanec]

As we get closer to clinching a spot in the playoffs it is apparent our top two pitchers are looking more and more like the Aces we hoped they would be.

 

Since the All-star break Gallardo and Greinke are tied for first in the NL in K's and are 3rd (Yo) and 11th (Greinke) in WHIP. They are near the top in most defensive independent stats as well. I dont know the best stats these days for pitchers but what I do know is our top 2 strike a lot of guys out and keep guys off base. That is pretty important for pitching. Marcum has been solid as well as Wolf but I like our top two and how they are pitching right now.

[Invader3K]

It has certainly been refreshing to not have much to complain about in terms of our starting pitchers. It's definitely been a night and day difference compared to the last two seasons. Gallardo and Greinke have been stellar, and even Chris Narveson has been quite good in the #5 spot (4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this year).

[jjfanec]

It has certainly been refreshing to not have much to complain about in terms of our starting pitchers. It's definitely been a night and day difference compared to the last two seasons. Gallardo and Greinke have been stellar, and even Chris Narveson has been quite good in the #5 spot (4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this year).

It is also refreshing to have guys pitching well down the stretch. The last time we made it it felt like CC was the only one winning games. Right now we have two guys pitching great, 2 guys pitching really well/or at least well and a solid number 5.

 

Greinke and Gallardo have the stuff to go up there against the best 1-2 out there in Halladay and Lee. Sure Halladay and Lee are better but the gap is not a large as it once was. I like our rotation against anyone other than the Phils to be honest.

 

I like our chances against Kennedy and Hudson from the Dbacks if we throw Greinke and Gallardo out there. Not to mention we follow with Marcum who has to be the best number 3 not named Cole Hamels.

[chadomac]

I continue to wonder why Marcum and Wolf don't get the respect that Gallardo and Greinke get around here. Marcum's ERA and WHIP are the lowest on the team this season and Wolf has the second best ERA on the team for the season and for the second half if you want to talk about post-all-star break. Is it just the fact that they don't strike out as many guys? I see our entire rotation (except Narveson) as interchangeably good. It's a great problem to have while setting our playoff rotation.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I continue to wonder why Marcum and Wolf don't get the respect that Gallardo and Greinke get around here. Marcum's ERA and WHIP are the lowest on the team this season and Wolf has the second best ERA on the team for the season and for the second half if you want to talk about post-all-star break. Is it just the fact that they don't strike out as many guys? I see our entire rotation (except Narveson) as interchangeably good. It's a great problem to have while setting our playoff rotation.

I think it's partly that people know that Wolf isn't as good as his results would indicate. Certainly he's had a great year for us, but often performance and the result of said performance don't always match up. Wolf's an average-ish pitcher having one of his better seasons, and I don't think too many people are going to expect the same results from him going forward.

[MNBrew]

I continue to wonder why Marcum and Wolf don't get the respect that Gallardo and Greinke get around here. Marcum's ERA and WHIP are the lowest on the team this season and Wolf has the second best ERA on the team for the season and for the second half if you want to talk about post-all-star break. Is it just the fact that they don't strike out as many guys? I see our entire rotation (except Narveson) as interchangeably good. It's a great problem to have while setting our playoff rotation.

I think it's partly that people know that Wolf isn't as good as his results would indicate. Certainly he's had a great year for us, but often performance and the result of said performance don't always match up. Wolf's an average-ish pitcher having one of his better seasons, and I don't think too many people are going to expect the same results from him going forward.

LOTS of folks on this board were saying the same thing about Wolf after his great 2nd half last year, but look how he's done this year. Look at what the guy's done over the past 3 years. Take out the 1st half of last year (I know you can't, but still...) and that's an extremely solid 2.5 years.

 

I'm not about to say Wolf's a lock to be this good again next year. But I think it's pretty safe to say that this 3-year run on his part isn't a fluke and I wouldn't be at all shocked if his success continues at a similar rate next year.

[Invader3K]

A lot of people on this board thought Wolf was going to be another Suppan. Some can't accept that Wolf always was better than Soup, and still is better than he ever was.

[endaround]

OK there a different things here. Is Wolf better than Suppan? Loads better, Suppan was a below average pitcher who got lucky for a few years and regressed to being replacement level. Wolf has been an above average pitcher who has regressed to likely being an average pitcher. Wolf's FIP this year is 4.31, his tERA is 4.85. Basically he isn't in the same class as the other pitchers.

 

Truth is no one is really in Greinke's class. The Brewers starers FIP:

 

Greinke 2.82

Gallardo 3.71

Marcum 3.68

Narveson 3.89

Wolf 4.31

[DuWayne Steurer]

A lot of people on this board thought Wolf was going to be another Suppan. Some can't accept that Wolf always was better than Soup, and still is better than he ever was.

I didn't say he was another Suppan. I never even suggested it. I only said that the results he's getting this year are better than his performance would seem to indicate they should be. He was a bad pitcher from 2006 through 2008, and the Crew took a chance on his solid 2009 season, in which his BABIP was WAY down from his career norms and trends. I didn't think he'd be Suppan bad, but I also wasn't expecting much. For the first half of last year, he sucked. He had a nice second half, and he's been very good/lucky this year. He's limiting his walks, and keeping the ball in the park. At the end of the day, results really are all that matter, but I wouldn't look for the same results going forward. That's all I'm saying here.

[jjfanec]

I continue to wonder why Marcum and Wolf don't get the respect that Gallardo and Greinke get around here. Marcum's ERA and WHIP are the lowest on the team this season and Wolf has the second best ERA on the team for the season and for the second half if you want to talk about post-all-star break. Is it just the fact that they don't strike out as many guys? I see our entire rotation (except Narveson) as interchangeably good. It's a great problem to have while setting our playoff rotation.

I didnt mean to short change Marcum or Wolf at all. If you want to see my thoughts on Marcum go to the transactions rumors/proposals thread where a lot of people talk about Marcum being a middle of the rotation kind of guy. I view Marcum as right there with Gallardo and Greinke and Wolf a step behind. Strikeouts do have something to do with it when I think of dominating in the post-season. With our defense I think a strikeout guy is even more valuable. I was focusing on second half of the year and Gallardo has a WHIP of 1.03 and Greinke has a WHIP 1.08 (Marcum 1.15, Wolf 1.2) which are all very good but when you factor in that Greinke and Gallardo are also striking a guy out per inning that seems like more sustainable dominance. They are letting less guys on base while having much fewer balls put in play.

 

I actually said Marcum and Wolf have been solid down the stretch as well. I love our top 4, but I think Wolf's ERA is a little misleading but I would never say he is a Jeff Suppan. I think is a solid number 3 but I would have him behind the other 3 for sure. No knock on him because he has been huge for us this year. Heck other years he may have been our best pitcher. I probably didnt give Marcum the love he fully deserves because his last two starts were stuck in my head. So, I apologize to Shaun if I short-changed him.

[bigredrobbo]

So does this mean we've seen the absolute last of the "OMG - what were we thinking trading for Greinke?" posts Brewerfan was full of early in the season? Good, cos those sucked!

[FVBrewerFan]

FIP is a bad stat. It basically makes any pitcher look bad if he's not a strike-out type of guy. An out is an out, and if Wolf gets them through pop-ups and ground-outs instead of strike-outs, it's fine with me. I have no problem looking at just about any stat, they're all helpful in context

 

I just think the FIP numbers really skew the difference between Greinke and Wolf. In fact, just looking at Wolf/Narvy tells you FIP is rather meaningless. Unless anyone honestly believes Narvy has pitched better than Wolf this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I remember earlier in the season, some of the discussion about Greinke was that he wasn't really as good as his '09 season, & that he was more likely a mid-3's ERA talent. What I wanted to add here is that the really top SP talents in the league appear to be guys whose ERAs tend to be under 4 year in & year out, & then occasionally dip waaaaay down into the filth-o-sphere. Greinke certainly looks to fit that bill, & isn't alone in perhaps being labeled as "not really that good". Here are some off-the-top-of-my-head examples...

 Career ERA Lowest Season Highest Season #1 3.52 2.29 4.84 #2 3.78 2.24 6.26 #3 3.80 2.50 5.01 #4 3.47 2.27 4.11 #5 3.81 2.16 5.80

I used a minimum of 150 IP for citing single seasons

 

Player 1

Player 2

Player 3

Player 4

Player 5

 

And to tie Gallardo in as well, his career so far certainly has the look of an elite SP's, from year to year. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see that sub-3 ERA season from him in the very near future. If the Brewers can lock up Greinke to a long-term contract, they'll be in a position to contend for a long time.

 

EDIT: TL;DR -- Greinke & Gallardo both profile, statistically & physically, as legit #1-type SPs. And there was much rejoicing.

 

 

FIP is a bad stat.

 

It's not a bad stat, it's only a 'bad stat' if it's being used, standalone, to show a pitcher's total & ultimate worth. FIP is a stat that's exactly what its name says it is. I think you said it best, FVBF, with "I have no problem looking at just about any stat, they're all helpful in context." You can't look at any one stat & say 'this is why pitcher X is the best'. Imo you have to evaluate both talent & production, just like when discussing MiLB prospects.

[endaround]

FIP is a bad stat. It basically makes any pitcher look bad if he's not a strike-out type of guy. An out is an out, and if Wolf gets them through pop-ups and ground-outs instead of strike-outs, it's fine with me. I have no problem looking at just about any stat, they're all helpful in context

 

I just think the FIP numbers really skew the difference between Greinke and Wolf. In fact, just looking at Wolf/Narvy tells you FIP is rather meaningless. Unless anyone honestly believes Narvy has pitched better than Wolf this year.

Narveson's tERA is 4.37. Wolf's is 4.85. Now Wolf doesn't fall apart at 85 pitches like Narveson but Wolf has been lucky to have his ERA in the 3s.