NLDS Matchup Preference

[DuWayne Steurer]

But I WANT to see the Brewers beat the Phils. I want to see the Brewers beat the Yankees. Mostly I want to see them win no matter who they play or when they play them, but given my druthers I want them to do it beating those teams. I went to the World Track and Field Championships about 10 years ago in Canada. I didn't go there hoping the guys I was cheering for won metals because the other guys false started. Yeah, it's not quite the same situation, but it's kind of the same sentiment.

Given that the Crew has never won a WS, I'm willing to take one however I can get it. Beating a 120 win Yankee team wouldn't make the first one any more special, at least for me.

[jeffy]

Yeah, beating Atlanta, AZ, and TX (or Detriot) >>>>>>>>>>>>>> losing to Philadelphia, NYY, or Boston

 

(especially since the main reason NYY, Philly, and Boston are as good as they are is financial.)

[pebadger]

Nobody is disputing any win is better than any loss. I just don't understand the fear of playing some teams. Just win.

[jeffy]

Why do you characterize it as "fear". It's simple, the chances of losing to Philly are greater than chances of losing to any other team they may play in the NL.

 

Even you you have the unusual opinion that winning a NLDS is meaningless, the chances of the Brewers getting to the WS are greater if they do not play the Phillies in the NLDS.

[dlk9s]

Why do you characterize it as "fear". It's simple, the chances of losing to Philly are greater than chances of losing to any other team they may play in the NL.

 

Even you you have the unusual opinion that winning a NLDS is meaningless, the chances of the Brewers getting to the WS are greater if they do not play the Phillies in the NLDS.

^^^ This. ^^^

 

Of course, I would love to see the Brewers win a World Series by going through Philly and the Yankees, but since I can't wave a magic wand and make it happen, I'd rather the Brewers have the easiest (or in the case of the playoffs, the least treacherous) road possible. When my kids make their first visit to Miller Park some day, they aren't going to ask, "But was the RPI of their playoff opponents?" when I show them the World Series trophy.

[pebadger]

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?

[rluzinski]

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?

Wanting your team to have the best chance of winning the World Series?

You are entitled to your opinion but you are obviously in the extreme minority.

 

[whizkid]

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?

Intelligence http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[paul253]

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?

 

I would call it playing the odds. And you're ignoring the home field advantage argument. If we play Philly we do not have the home field advantage. If we play anyone else (as of today), we do. What about this don't you get? Thinking we might not beat someone is not the equivalent of being afraid of them.

 

If I am playing in a one on one basketball tournament where the winner gets a million dollars and I am in the finals, I'm going to hope that that 15 year old girl beats Lebron James in the other semi-final because I feel that I have a better chance of beating her than beating him. I want her to win because I want to win the tournament. That doesn't mean I am "afraid" of having to play Lebron James, it just means I don't think I have a very good chance of winning. If I could see the future and see that I was going to win, then yes I wouldn't care who I played. Dumb example I know but you get the point.

 

If I knew the Brewers would win the World Series, then yes I'd prefer they beat Philly, Arizona and the Yankees. But it doesn't work that way. Instead of picking who we beat, we have to cheer for more favorable match-ups. I get what you're saying. You want them to win and you want them to beat the best teams. We all do. But I'd rather play teams I think we have a better chance of beating because a World Series Championship is a World Series Championship. It doesn't mater who you beat.

[markedman5]

If we win the World Series nobody(with the possible exception of pebadger) will care who we beat along the way.

[topper09er]

Shouldn't the recent 4 game series vs the Phils be proof enough of why we don't want to play them if possible.

[jeffy]

What would you characterize "not wanting to play somebody because they have a better chance to beat you than the other guy" as?

 

It is not that AZ (for example) has a better chance of beating Philadelphia than the Brewers do. I would assume either teams odds would be about the same against the Phillies.

 

It this:

If the Brewers and AZ have the same chance of beating Philadelphia, the one who plays them first has the smaller chance of getting to the WS.

 

In the example I posted yesterday, if AZ and Milwaukee are equal and Philadelphia has a 64% chance of beating either of them, the one who must play Philly first has an 18% chance of getting to the WS, while the one who does not has a 20.5% chance.

 

So please explain why it is you prefer the match-up that reduces the Brewers odds of getting to the WS?

[fondybrewfan]

If we are going to lose to Philly I would rather lose in the NLCS than the NLDS thats for sure. The Brewers have a good team; but I am realistic that it would be a major upset if anyone other than PHI goes to the World Series in the NL. There offense is far from spectacular so there is some hope I suppose. I would consider the season a success if they fall to PHI in the NLCS; I would be far less happy if they would bow out in the NLDS again.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't forget the other obvious reason we wouldn't want to play Philly in the NLDS. Home Field advantage. If AZ/Cards beat them in the NLDS, Brewers would have HFA in the NLCS.

 

i don't think winning the WS while avoiding the Phillies would make it any less special. In fact, if it plays out that the Brewers beat the Cards in the NLCS to get to the WS, that would give me even MORE satisfaction. And frankly, make a WS loss easier to accept if it comes to that.

[Bombers]

Don't forget the other obvious reason we wouldn't want to play Philly in the NLDS. Home Field advantage. If AZ/Cards beat them in the NLDS, Brewers would have HFA in the NLCS.

 

i don't think winning the WS while avoiding the Phillies would make it any less special. In fact, if it plays out that the Brewers beat the Cards in the NLCS to get to the WS, that would give me even MORE satisfaction. And frankly, make a WS loss easier to accept if it comes to that.

 

I agree it won't be any less special. The 92 win phillies, in 2008, bypassed playing the 1 seed (97 win cubs) and the 100 win angels. If the cubs beat the 84 win dodgers, do the phillies still take the series in Chicago (probably because it is the cubs) but I don't think any Philly fans were complaining about being the home team in the NLCS.

[pebadger]

I recognized the whole home field advantage angle in the very first post of this thread. And I never said a title would be less special or diminished by who they beat to get there. Whoever wins, wins. And I never said winning the NLDS is meaningless: it means you get to keep playing.

 

I did say that the NLDS, in and of itself, is not that big a deal. Is winning it an accomplishment? Sure. Every postseason win is an accomplishment. But if one team goes 4-6 in the quest to win the 7 postseason games they need to win to make it to the WS I don't see how their accomplishment is greater, in the aggregate, than that of a team that goes 2-3 when they both lose to the same team and the order of their defeat is largely arbitrary.

 

What I did say is that everyone seems to be afraid of the Phils. I say beat who you have to beat and don't worry about who you play. Losing in the NLCS is not significantly different than losing in the NLDS. The goal is not to lose in either.

 

This is not to diminish any win in the postseason. Every win is great because it means you get to keep playing, but those individual wins are not the goal in and of themselves. Win 3 and you guarantee yourself 4 more games. Win 4 more and you guarantee yourself another 4. In the end the winner has to win 11 games.

 

I want the Brewers to win those 11, but I also want the ride to the championship to be as entertaining as it can be. Of course the ultimate entertainment is for them to actually win the WS title. Nothing else can top that, no matter what path they take to get there. Some winning paths will be better than others, but none will generate complaints. Any path that does not end in a championship cannot compare with a championship but, for me at least, once a WS championship is off the table the entertainment value of the pursuit is not to be evaluated solely on how long the ride lasts. It's certainly a huge factor, probably the biggest, but it's not the only factor.

[paul253]

What I did say is that everyone seems to be afraid of the Phils. I say

beat who you have to beat and don't worry about who you play. Losing in

the NLCS is not significantly different than losing in the NLDS. The

goal is not to lose in either.

I want the Brewers to win those 11, but I also want the ride to the championship to be as entertaining as it can be.

With all due respect pebadger, you just keep saying the same thing over and over again and don't listen to anything the rest of us say.

[Ennder]

Losing in the NLCS is not significantly different than losing in the NLDS

 

The difference between the two is huge from a franchise standpoint I'm not sure how you can really say it is the same thing. The more playoff games the team gets to play the better in general not only from a revenue standpoint but from an experience standpoint.

[brwrsfan]

Anyone else worried that the Cardinals will make the playoffs and we'll match up with them in the NLCS potentially? I want nothing to do with them, they're playing out of their minds right now. Everything seems to be falling right both for them and wrong for the Braves right now. Just screams of the Rockies from a couple of years back. Granted, Braves still have a 2.5 game lead with 8 to play, but the Cardinals seem almost seem like the favorites here. Cards also end with Chicago and Houston, so I don't see too many losses coming there.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd rather take my chances with the Cardinals then the Phillies. I don't think the Cardinals are even going to make the playoffs- though I love how their fanbase is getting hope again, only likely to have it dashed on the rocks.

[Ennder]

The Cardinals are a better team than the DBacks and the Braves are really banged up and their bullpen is worn out so I certainly hope they miss the playoffs. Not really because they are playing great right now though, since that kind of thing rarely sustains itself.

[Invader3K]

I'd rather take my chances with the Cardinals then the Phillies. I don't think the Cardinals are even going to make the playoffs- though I love how their fanbase is getting hope again, only likely to have it dashed on the rocks.

I have to admit, I would love to see them barely miss winning the Wild Card. The indignation from their fan base would be something to behold.

[Oxy]

There is a gigantic difference in mentality between an observer (fan) and participant (player). From a players perspective, pebadgers mentality is totally the attitude that needs to be taken. Since they have no control over who they will play in the future, there is no point in even thinking about, worrying about, or hoping for or against anything, since then it just becomes a distraction that could possibly impede the task at hand--winning the current game.

 

Fans, however, are different. Fandom is all about speculation and anticipation. If you want to wonder about the future and determine the best odds of winning and then hope for those circumstances to come about knock yourself out. If you want to hope for the most difficult path possible because the reward of overcoming the odds will be far more satisfactory than merely having things fall in line for you, then knock yourself out. Either way, whatever mentality you have very likely won't have an actual effect on the results of the game.

 

I say very likely because I suppose it could be possible that if enough fans had a similar mentality, they could actually cheer en masse in a different way than if they were merely passive observers. This increase in energy could possibly inspire the home team and rattle the away team to such an extent that it affects their performance. However, since this would be a very singular occurrence, most statistically minded people will throw up their hands and say that this possibility is ridiculous merely because it cannot be repeated and tested over multiple controlled trials to get the proper sample size in order to scientifically determine if there is actually an effect.

 

 

Personally, I play the odds before the fact because I want to win, but would actually enjoy beating the Phillies and Yankees more than beating the D-Backs and Tigers, so if I know beforehand that the Crew will win, I'd rather play the Big Boys http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[brewerguy71]

Preferred 1st round matchup would be with the Diamondbacks, which would mean the Cards would have to win the Wild Card. I think a series against the Braves would go all 5 games, and a series against the Phillies, which right now wont happen until the 2nd round at least, will be pretty close to a sweep. The Diamondbacks are the only team the Brewers have a clear advantage over.

[RockCoCougars]

I prefer the Braves in the first round. Their pitching is in disarray, and the two young bullpen guys look to have hit the rookie wall, both have gotten knocked around pretty good as of late. I don't think that their lineup is much to fear either.