NLDS Matchup Preference

[pebadger]

This is probably more about psychology than baseball but it's interesting to me anyway. At the risk of jinxing this (which I don't really believe in but giving the disclaimer to be inclusive to people of that faith) . . .

It seems like people are concerned about who the Brewers face in the NLDS. Frankly I don't care. It would be preferable if they had home-field for Game 5 which, in practice this season means they wouldn't face the Phillies, but I think most reasonable folks would have that preference regardless of the potential opponents.

I guess my question is: Why should it matter? I understand that some folks like the idea of "going farther" in the playoffs and for that reason would like a "favorable" first round matchup so as to have a better chance at making the NLCS. For me the goal is simple: watch the Brewers win the World Series. Anything short of that just means they lost at some point. I don't see that it matters where they lose when they lose. They lost. You can take some consolation in your team playing well, especially if they lose to a great team that is just better than them, but they still lost.

I can appreciate that there is some utility to the fan in the Brewers simply getting to the NLCS: we get to watch at least 4 more games. But would it make anyone any happier if the Brewers beat the Braves 3-1 only to get beat by the D-Backs in 5 or 6 games? To me they still got beat. If we change the hypothetical a bit, why should it make any difference if they beat the Braves and then lose to the Phils? Short of the Brewers winning it all is the payoff to the fan that much greater just getting to see a few more games over the span of a few more days? I understand that this answer varies greatly from person to person and there isn't a "right answer".

In any event, for those who like the numbers, isn't the Brewers best chance of beating the Phils a 5-game series? Assuming that's correct (and maybe it's not), and assuming the Brewers will have a better chance in a 7-game series against any other opponent than they would against the Phils, isn't it better to just beat the Phils right away and get it over with, from a probability standpoint?

[The Truth]

We want home-field advantage and we want Arizona facing the Phillies. Us having home-field vs an injury riddled Braves team is highly preferable

 

No disrespect intended, but this seems like a no-brainer

[jjfanec]

I want home-field advantage in the first round. I dont care if that is against the Braves or D-Backs.

[The Truth]

In any event, for those who like the numbers, isn't the Brewers best chance of beating the Phils a 5-game series? Assuming that's correct (and maybe it's not), and assuming the Brewers will have a better chance in a 7-game series against any other opponent than they would against the Phils, isn't it better to just beat the Phils right away and get it over with, from a probability standpoint?

If we are looking a probability, with the goal of reaching the World Series, I think the highest probability of the Brewers reaching the WS are in Arizona upsetting the Phillies in a 5 game series and the Brewers beating Arizona in a 7 game series with Home-Field advantage

[whizkid]

I think most people equate the farther a team gets in the playoffs, the more successful the season. There is also more national media exposure from advancing. Yes, all but one team loses in the end. But with 30 teams in MLB, if all things were equal, a fan can only expect their team to win the WS once every 30 years. Given that all things aren't equal, fans of teams that can't spend $180-200M a year can reasonably expect a WS victory less often than that. If a WS victory is the only success, fans are setting themselves up for a lot of disappointment.

 

Despite losing the WS, the 1982 post-season was a very exciting time in Milwaukee. It would have been a lot less exciting had the Brewers not come back to beat the Angels.

[pogokat]

IT MUST BE THE BRAVES FIRST ROUND.

 

because i already have very nic seats for game three, which should be the only game the braves and brewers play at turner field, as the braves get knocked out...

 

if it's the dbacks or phillies, i will be sad

[pebadger]

I'm not saying a WS win is the only measure of success. On the other hand, to use a different sports situation, people make a big deal out of a college basketball team making the Sweet 16. But is making the Sweet 16 and losing really that much different in terms of "success" than is losing in the second round? What if you make the Sweet 16 in large part because some other team did most of the heavy lifting for you in upsetting the best team in your pod? How does that make your tournament any more successful than that of the team that knocked off Duke for you? Because you won one more game before losing?

 

I'll be very excited no matter what the Brewers do. But I don't understand the fear some have of playing the Phils. To me you prove you are the best by beating the best.

 

So, if the Brewers make the WS, would most prefer to face the worst possible opponent?

[ninja33]

IT MUST BE THE BRAVES FIRST ROUND.

 

because i already have very nic seats for game three, which should be the only game the braves and brewers play at turner field, as the braves get knocked out...

 

if it's the dbacks or phillies, i will be sad

This.

I do think there is solid reasoning behind "if we have to beat the phillies anyway, we'd have a better shot in a 5 game series". But I think the hope is still definitely to have homefield, preferably against a banged up braves team. If they can play the braves and then the DBacks (who pull off an upset), that would be the easiest path to the world series. Also, while I agree with what the initial post says implying that ultimately the team wins the world series or it doesn't, and as fans we will be disappointed no matter where we lose....but hosting as many playoff games as possible is really really important for a small market team like Milwaukee. The extra revenue it brings in could be the difference between extending a guy like Greinke, or at the very least being able to spend more money in the draft. I don't know the exact numbers (they're out there somewhere), but if the Brewers host 5 playoff games, that could be enough for Attanasio to increase the payroll quite a bit next year.

 

[Ennder]

The deeper you go in the playoffs the more revenue it tends to produce and the more national press the city/team gets, which means the payroll can be higher in the following seasons.

[pebadger]

I don't think hosting matters in terms of the gate revenues. IIRC, the only thing that matters is the sheer number of games played in terms of gate revenues. Gate revenues for a series are split between both teams after taking a significant portion off the top the goes to MLB and the player pool. I'm pretty sure that the MLB/player pool is only based off of revenues for the first 3/4games depending on whether it's a 5 or 7 game series. More games, more revenues to get split up, but location of the games is irrelevant. In fact, from the standpoint of only those particular monies (and ignoring the ancillary effects such as excitement generated for next season resulting in more seaons tix sold), it works out best for everyone if the series goes the distance and the majority of games are played in the biggest possible park.

[rluzinski]

In any event, for those who like the numbers, isn't the Brewers best chance of beating the Phils a 5-game series? Assuming that's correct (and maybe it's not), and assuming the Brewers will have a better chance in a 7-game series against any other opponent than they would against the Phils, isn't it better to just beat the Phils right away and get it over with, from a probability standpoint?

If we are looking a probability, with the goal of reaching the World Series, I think the highest probability of the Brewers reaching the WS are in Arizona upsetting the Phillies in a 5 game series and the Brewers beating Arizona in a 7 game series with Home-Field advantage

Exactly. The Phillies will be huge favorites but might still have a 25% chance or greater of losing in the first round. Add that to the Brewers having a slightly better chance of winning with home field advantage and this is all a no brainer.

[pebadger]

So as long as the Brewers win we want them to face the worst possible opponents? Given that, I should be hoping that all possible opponents are stricken by long-lasting flu-lke virus which leaves them no worse for wear by mid-November?

[rluzinski]

So as long as the Brewers win we want them to face the worst possible opponents? Given that, I should be hoping that all possible opponents are stricken by long-lasting flu-lke virus which leaves them no worse for wear by mid-November?

Sounds great to me.

[paul253]

I don't understand this thread. Of course we all want the Brewers to win the World Series. But it would likely be a lot easier to accomplish that if you don't have to play Philadelphia in the first round. And it likely be easier to accomplish that if they get home field advantage in both the NLDS and the NLCS. They've played better at home all season long. Their offense is better at home (.789 OPS vs .692 OPS) Their pitching is better at home (3.36 ERA vs 3.94 ERA). Just about everything about Milwaukee is better at home. The entire point of playing these 162 regular season games is not just to get into the playoffs, but to put yourself in the best position to win in the playoffs. That's what we all want. We want them to win, and in order to make it easier to win, we want them to have home field advantage and play the team with the worse record.

I don't see that it matters where they lose when they lose. They lost.

You can take some consolation in your team playing well, especially if

they lose to a great team that is just better than them, but they still

lost.

If that's the attitude then what difference does it make if they lose in the NLCS or were the worst team in baseball? Either way they didn't win the World Series. If that's your only goal I have a feeling you're going to come away awfully disappointed with this season.

[8brewcrew]

I dont care if that is against the Braves or D-Backs.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure two teams from the same

division can't play each other in the opening round of the playoffs (Philly and Atlanta). Meaning the

Crew would either play the Phillies (as the 3 seed) or the Braves (as the 2 seed).

 

So Brewers-DBacks wouldn't be possible until the 2nd round.

[paul253]

So Brewers-DBacks wouldn't be possible until the 2nd round.

 

Correct. Unlesss St. Louis passes the Braves. Then we would play either Philly or Arizona in the first round. Right now it seems like all of our possible opponents are hot, except Atlanta. That's why I am really hoping we hold off Arizona and Atlanta hangs on against St. Louis.

[pebadger]

That's not what I said at all. I want the Brewers to win. I don't care who they play. I'll be happy with whoever they play. The Brewers season is a success in my eyes as soon as they clinch a playoff spot. The Brewers don't become automatically more successful in my mind just because, for example, they win the NLDS and then lose in the NLCS. If the Brewers go to the WS by beating the Phils in 5 and then the D-Backs in 6 does the make the D-Backs season any better than the Phils, simply because of the somewhat arbitrary order in which they lost to the Brewers?

 

What I don't understand is people actively hoping that the Brewers avoid teams, as if they are afraid. If they play the Phils in the first round and lose a hard-fought series I can live with that. Once they reach the playoffs all outcomes short of winning the WS are pretty much the same to me. What I want to see is good baseball, win or lose.

[paul253]

What I don't understand is people actively hoping that the Brewers avoid teams, as if they are afraid.

 

I personally hope they avoid teams because some teams are better than others. Philadelphia is a much better team than Atlanta is. So why wouldn't I prefer them to play Atlanta, particularly when they get to play them at home? I'm not "afraid" of Philly but I'm also not confident they can beat them. Milwaukee's offense is struggling right now and Philly has really good pitching. That's not a good combination.

 

If the Brewers go to the WS by beating the Phils in 5 and then the

D-Backs in 6 does the make the D-Backs season any better than the Phils,

simply because of the somewhat arbitrary order in which they lost to

the Brewers?

 

Yes it does. Because Arizona won a playoff series and Philadelphia did not. To me, that makes it a better season. Just like if the Brewers lose in the NLCS, they would have had a better season than if they lost in the NLDS

Once they reach the playoffs all outcomes short of winning the WS are

pretty much the same to me. What I want to see is good baseball, win or

lose.

 

I guess that's the difference between you and me. I'd pick win first, good baseball a distant second. Every single sport ever invented has been designed around winning. That's why they keep score. If the Brewers win all three first round games because Atlanta commits 16 errors, I'd still rather have that than to lose to Atlanta with five 1 run games.

[pebadger]

Of course I'd rather the Brewers win. But once they lose, if they lose, I don't see how them losing later than someone else makes much difference in terms of evaluating the season, especially when the order of play is somewhat arbitrary. It's just wierd to me how some will put a lot of stock in ideas such as "true talent" and other objective measures of how "good" a team is on one hand, and then at the same time judge the degree of success of a season based on the rather arbitrary vagaries of a post-season construct in any terms other than simply winning the tournament.

 

I prefer not to worry about the opponent and focus on my team. If they play better than the other guy, they win. If not, they weren't good enough. To the extent that they can control who their opponent is by winning games that determine the tournament setup, great. Otherwise, just play who you play and not worry about it. It just seems to me to foster a poor attitude by worrying more about who you face than determining that you will beat your opponent no matter who that is. For fans it doesn't matter. I guess growing up around coaches with that mindset has me wired to see it the way I do.

 

My town has a very good HS football program. I'm very confident that when they won the state championship a few years ago the last three teams that they beat on the way to Madison all would have won the game in Madison if they had had that chance. I don't think it made their seasons any less simply because they were second, third and fourth in line to be beaten by a dominant state championship team.

[paul253]

So in your opinion if the Brewers get swept in the first round of playoffs, is that any different than losing the World Series in 7 games? Would the season be evaluated the same either way? They made the playoffs but didn't win the World Series?

 

I guess I view it like this. If the Brewers miss the playoffs, which seems unlikely, the season has to be considered a utter failure. If they lose in the first round, I still consider the season to be somewhat of a failure. They traded away three of their best prospects, including one whose looking like he may be a perennial all star, for this season and to a lesser extent next season. To me a first round loss doesn't cut it, not considering what you have and what you gave away. In 2008 they made the playoffs, and the standard should now be higher. You need to win I would consider advancing to the NLCS, even if they lose, to be somewhat of a successful season. Obviously advancing to the World Series would be a very successful season. But yes, to me it certainly does matter how far they advance when determining how successful to consider the season.

[pebadger]

The only intermediate step that makes some sort of difference to me is winning the NL pennant, because it is the NL teams against which the Brewers competed to make it to the playoffs in the first place.

[jeffy]

In any event, for those who like the numbers, isn't the Brewers best chance of beating the Phils a 5-game series? Assuming that's correct (and maybe it's not), and assuming the Brewers will have a better chance in a 7-game series against any other opponent than they would against the Phils, isn't it better to just beat the Phils right away and get it over with, from a probability standpoint?

 

While they may have a better chance of getting lucky in the shorter series, it does not make them any more likely to get to the WS because the Phillies are about as likely to lose to AZ or St. Louis in the NLDS as they would be to lose to the Brewers in the NLDS.

 

However the teams line up for the playoffs, the Phillies likely have about the same odds of going to the WS. That probably is true of the Brewers, as well. But, while Philadelphia has about the same odds of getting to the NLCS no matter who their first opponent is, that is not true for the Brewers.

 

I'd like to see the Brewers go to the WS, but if they don't I still want them to get to the NLCS and I also want them to win the division.

[jeffy]

However the teams line up for the playoffs, the Phillies likely have about the same odds of going to the WS. That probably is true of the Brewers, as well.

 

Actually, thinking about that and then doing some calculations that is probably not so. Suppose the Phillies have a 64% chance of winning, no matter who their opponent is in each round and the other teams have a 50% chance of winning against each other in any match-up. Then the team that plays the Phillies first has a 36% chance of winning the NLDS and a 50% chance of winning the NLCS, so 18% chance of going to WS.

 

Now the team that does not play the Phillies first has a 50% chance of winning the NLDS, but in the NLCS there is a 64% chance they will play the Phillies and a 36% chance they will play someone else. That means they would have a 41% chance of winning the NLCS, if they get there (0.64 x 0.36 + 0.36 x 0.50). Since there is a 50% chance of getting to the NLCS, that gives them a 20.5% chance of getting to the WS.

 

That is a 14% improvement in the odds (18 x 1.14 = 20.5) of getting to the WS by playing the weaker team first, in this example.

[dlk9s]

What I don't understand is people actively hoping that the Brewers avoid teams, as if they are afraid.

Of course most people would hope the Brewers can avoid the Phillies in the first round. Why wouldn't they? The Phillies are far and away the best team in the NL, with a pitching staff that can go 7 innings of 1 run ball in their sleep. By avoiding them in the first round, it gives another team the opportunity to possibly knock them out before the Brewers face them, making a potential run to the World Series a little less difficult. Plus, not facing the Phillies in the first round means the potential for home field throughout the playoffs.

 

I mean, it's not some big surprise why people would prefer an Atlanta first round matchup instead of a Philly first round matchup.

[pebadger]

But I WANT to see the Brewers beat the Phils. I want to see the Brewers beat the Yankees. Mostly I want to see them win no matter who they play or when they play them, but given my druthers I want them to do it beating those teams. I went to the World Track and Field Championships about 10 years ago in Canada. I didn't go there hoping the guys I was cheering for won metals because the other guys false started. Yeah, it's not quite the same situation, but it's kind of the same sentiment.