Climbing up on the Anxiety Meter

[Team Canada]

Ok, then tell me where they get the 58 to 42 % difference? Won't the Brewers either win or lose? It's a 50-50 chance one of those results will occur. Where am I wrong??

You're wrong in assuming that both outcomes are weighted equally. This isn't flipping a coin.

[Raw Biz]

I am a 11. i don't have a good feeling about this, i don't plan to even watch the game, i am going to dvr itand fast forward it. In my brain I have all ready started the off season.

That's probably the dumbest thing I ever heard (read). I understand being nervous but how can you, as a fan who posts on here, not even watch the game? I understand DVRing to watch "live" later on but to just fast forward through the whole thing and expect a loss? Yeah they could lose but at this point, the Brewers are favorites. A good fan would at least give them a chance.

[Gobias Industries]

Ok, then tell me where they get the 58 to 42 % difference? Won't the Brewers either win or lose? It's a 50-50 chance one of those results will occur. Where am I wrong??

For real? Obviously we're either gonna win or lose, but no way is it a coinflip. Didn't you question a win probability last night too?

 

Off topic but this reminds me of when I'd win a hand in poker as a 4 to 1 dog and the unlucky player would ask me, omg do you the odds of you winning that hand were? My answer would always be 50/50. Either I win or lose. Definitely a good way to get under someones skin, but yeah obviously way false.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Vegas numbers never give me a great deal of confidence b/c I've never seen any studies showing their lines are statistically accurate. They are good at making money, and they do that by setting lines that will get equal action on both sides. So when the set a line a Wisconsin -7 against Nebraska they don't really care or think that Wisconsin is going to win by 7 they just think that's a line that's going to get them equal action on both sides. They don't really care the Wisconsin won by 31.

 

So putting the brewers at 58%, doesn't do much for me. I mean what is 58% in a one game sample. That's pretty much flipping a coin to me. If your doctor said, hey you have a 58% chance to live, you should be happy that's better odds than just flipping a coin, I don't think that would be much comfort.

 

I'm glad the game is tomorrow at 4pm, don't think I could make it to 7pm without a breakdown.

[hawing]

This is what fans are supposed to live for. I am caring way more than I should, and there is so much on the line. What is it they say? No risk, no reward?

People do say "no risk, no reward." In most facets of life, I'm highly risk-averse, plus I'm clinically anxious (though I think less severely than Zack) - so although the Brewers' fortunes this season doesn't ultimately make a huge ripple in the universe...this is an uncomfortable position for me. I'll feel either awesome or awful by Friday night, and it's impossible to know which.

 

I'm diligently trying to take the even-keeled angle. This is what happens during postseasons, when momentum can shift in the blink of an eye. More than two dozen MLB teams and their fans would give a lot to trade places with the Brewers and with us right now. You never know when this will happen again, so enjoy it. Blah blah blah.

 

But staying even-keeled is a struggle. I was listening to my Brewers playlist on the walk home tonight, hearing songs that filled me with confidence until Tuesday night, and trying not to get teary right there on the bike path. I won't feel ashamed if they fall short of the NLCS - the 2011 Brewers' accomplishments have included a lot of first-time feats, and I'm delighted and grateful to have been present for so much of it - but I'm absolutely not ready for the season to end. And I always cry at the end of the season, whenever it comes, just because it's over.

 

I guess I'm trying to focus on the opportunity that tomorrow holds for us all, and compartmentalize the "what ifs" that usually dog my thoughts.

 

One of my favorite threads in Brewerfan history is this one from 9/27/2008. Have a look through it between now and 4:00 Friday. Here is one of my favorite quotes from that thread (italics added by me):

Somehow, some way, I just feel like it's our time. At the very minimum,

allow yourself a few minutes to cast aside your doubts, dreads, fears,

and enjoy

the moment.

And no matter what negative thoughts go through your head,

or what bad vibes you feel in the early stages of these two important

games, know that

some diehard fan out there who is no better, no worse, no different from

you, has confidence that at the end of the day, Brewers' fans will be

pleased with

the result.

So, anxiety level is moderate, but I'm going to try to remember that not everything I'm anxious about turns out badly.

[rluzinski]

Ok, then tell me where they get the 58 to 42 % difference? Won't the Brewers either win or lose? It's a 50-50 chance one of those results will occur. Where am I wrong??

I don't know why I am surprised.

Vegas numbers never give me a great deal of confidence b/c I've never seen any studies showing their lines are statistically accurate.

They are not infallible but the wisdom of the crowds is pretty damn good.

[bucks2281]

I will be sad if we lose tomorrow night. Fortunately, I was very busy today and will be tomorrow morning, so the nerves won't quite get to me until game time. I am, though, preparing myself to lose.

 

Just remember: winner-take-all games are rare in baseball. Especially for the Brewers. I'm going to try to embrace the moment as much as I can. Please, please win, Brewers. We fans deserve this so much.

[logan82]

Our first must win game of the season.

[dlk9s]

Everybody, the 50/50 thing is an old joke. It's used all the time in poker circles.

 

Q: "What are the chances of hitting my two-outer on the river?"

 

A: "50/50. Either you hit it or you don't."

 

 

 

(For those unfamiliar with poker and it's lingo, the real probability of the above scenario is 5%.)

[hawing]

Our first must win game of the season.

Yep, time for our time-honored graphic:

 

http://image.bokus.com/images2/9780273704577_large_must-win-battles

[brwrsfan]

Accuscore has us winning this game 64% of the time based on it's simulations. Not that it means anything, but it's something to be optimistic about I guess.

[fondybrewfan]

Today is going to be a long day with next to nothing accomplished at work.

 

Please don't ruin my weekend Brewers. I know I shouldn't fixate on a sports team so much but seriously if you lose my weekend is probably shot.

 

I know we are at home with Yo pitching but I can't make myself confident. All along I thought we had the better team but the way they annhilated us in ARI has me very nervous.

[owbc]

The daydreams that I had over the past day give the Brewers a 100% chance of winning on a Ryan Braun walkoff HR.

[Teatoe993]

Despite the past few days of dread and doom, I woke up this morning feeling like a million bucks. Brewers romp the D-Backs. Mark it down.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

Obsessed, I don't think I will be able to handle this coming down to a walk-off homer so I hope you are wrong. What's wrong with a 7 run first or second inning game.

[owbc]

Obsessed, I don't think I will be able to handle this coming down to a walk-off homer so I hope you are wrong. What's wrong with a 7 run first or second inning game.

I forgot to mention that the Brewers are down by 1 at the time of the walkoff, with 2 outs.

[brwrsfan]

Obsessed, I don't think I will be able to handle this coming down to a walk-off homer so I hope you are wrong. What's wrong with a 7 run first or second inning game.

I forgot to mention that the Brewers are down by 1 at the time of the walkoff, with 2 outs.

As awesome as this would be, I don't think I could handle it. Let's just win one easy for a change. They did it the last two nights, I think it's our turn. I think we're going to come out bats ablazing and get a 3-4 in the first couple innings. Just need Yo to work his magic and shut them down.

 

 

[YoGasKpose]

Hawing, thanks for linking to that thread. What a great read, and a great way to relive the anxiety of the final day of the season in 2008. I still get chills even thinking about Ueck's "Swing and a DRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVE."

 

May we be blessed with more of the same this afternoon (though, as others have pointed out, I'd be pretty cool with a 10-0 Brewers romp).

 

 

GO CREW! Third biggest game in franchise history today. Who'd have thought we'd be saying that back in 2004?

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't feel positive about Yo out-pitching Kennedy again. So I'm going into this game expecting to lose, which is fine, because I rather be pleasantly surprised. Brewers have HFA, but AZ has Kennedy and momentum.

 

1st inning will be huge for Yo, as it seems even in some of the games he pitched well, he has given up a run or two in the 1st. If he looks lights-out in the first, I will be more optimisitc. Sign steelers, whoever you are, get there early tonight for the best possible vantage point in CF.

[TooLiveBrew]

AZ has Kennedy and momentum.

 

The Brewers had Marcum & momentum heading into Phoenix, how'd that work out? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

I would think that if this series has shown us anything, its that momentum is nothing more than a sorts cliche. I'm worried about the skill of Kennedy, not Wolf's last outing.

[BrewerTerp]

i am so excited to have to follow the first four innings on gamecast at my desk!!!!

[razzzorsharp]

Momentum is your starting pitcher for the day, always has been.

[RockCoCougars]

Momentum is your starting pitcher for the day, always has been.

 

This is generally the case for the most part. I think the day off and travel killed most of the momentum that AZ was riding. If the Brewers were in one of their pattented horrible hitting slumps scoring 1 or 2 runs a game, I'd be more concerned about momentum. If Braun and/or Prince can play like an MVP today, I'm feeling good.

[FVBrewerFan]

That's why I listed momentum second. Kennedy is the main reason I don't feel very positive. In fact, momentum was a poor choice of words to use. I just think AZ comes in probably real loose with a "nothing to lose" attitude. Feeling good winning the last two, ace on the mound, etc. Meanwhile, the Brewers are suddenly in a must win position after losing two and may be free swinging too much. Or maybe it manifests itself with Yo trying to be too perfect.

 

Not saying any of that is true, could never be proven one way or another. It's just how I feel. I'm really afraid of "hero syndrome" where everyone tries to hit a 5 run HR instead of settling for a single, taking a walk, etc. Really don't want to be negative, it's just how I'm seeing this game. But hey, it's game 5 in Milwaukee so I'm excited regardless.