Climbing up on the Anxiety Meter

[Outlander]

I'm still confident in the team and feel they still have a decent chance of going to the World Series. When teams like the Giants and Cardinals win the World Series there is no reason to believe the Brewers can't do the same, it doesn't matter at all if they back in or not or if they are considered boring.

[moofnelson]

This weekend against the Reds: Arroyo and his 40 HR's allowed and a 5.5+ ERA. Volquez who was sent down to the minors this year. Willis who is 0-6. If the Brewers can't manage to win at least 2 of these games, then they probably don't deserve a spot in the playoffs.

[RockCoCougars]

This weekend against the Reds: Arroyo and his 40 HR's allowed and a 5.5+ ERA

I'd be shocked if they score more than 3 runs off Arroyo tonight. They always make him look like a Cy Young candidate. With his mid-80's fastball, he looks like the most hittable pitcher in the game, and is right up there for most teams except for the Brewers. This is a team that was shutdown by Kevin Millwood a few days ago, so I expect nothing for tonight. Vegas has the Brewers as dogs FWIW.

[rluzinski]

Baseball fans are crazy.

[brewmann04]

The crew will make all 3 Pitchers look like aces this week it be a big struggle just to win the series.

[chadomac]

How is this team still ranked 4th in the NL in OPS? That is really surprising to me. Seems like we've struggled offensively for at least 2 months now, if not all season.

[jjfanec]

How is this team still ranked 4th in the NL in OPS? That is really surprising to me. Seems like we've struggled offensively for at least 2 months now, if not all season.

Well Braun, Fielder, Weeks and Hart really help those numbers.

Braun - #1 LF

Fielder - #2 1B

Hart - #6 RF - a little lower than I would have thought

Weeks - #1 2B

 

Morgan - #6 CF

Lucroy - middle of the pack for catchers but hard to gauge because other guys split time more

Yuni and Casey are the only guys below the middle of the pack but they are definitely hurting us

[Roderick]

I was anxious last night and then I went to baseball prospectus. We're still at 99% to make the playoff. Call me when it gets under 90% and then I start to get nervous.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Does this link seem right? The Rays are 3 game behind the WC and they only have a 4% chance to get the playoffs (13 games to go)? It seems to me that the percentage would be a little higher, even accounting for the Rays playing the Yankees a bunch still and the fact that the Angels could go crazy (and the Rangers remain in the division lead) and compete for the WC themselves.

[Schlitz001]

I don't put too much weight into those playoff percentages. At one point in August the Giants were a 95% chance to make the playoffs, now look at them. There is a 99% chance that I won't get into a car accident today, but I'm still going to wear my seatbelt. It's baseball and anything can happen.

[pretendastronaut]

Teams don't blow nine-game leads in September. It just doesn't happen.

 

Teams do blow three-game leads with 13 games to play. That does happen.

 

That has happened.

 

In fact, it's not hard to find teams that have led by four games, or even five games, with 13 games to play, and still missed the playoffs.

 

The 1951 Dodgers (four games) did it, although it took maybe the most famous home run of all time.

 

The 1964 Phillies (5 1/2 games) did it, although it took a collapse that tarnished Gene Mauch's legacy for the rest of his life.

 

The 1995 Angels, the 2009 Tigers and the 2007 Padres (all three games) did it, too. So did the 1934 Giants (3 1/2 games), the 1962 Dodgers (four games) , the 1965 Giants (3 1/2 games) and the 1938 Pirates (3 1/2 games).

 

The point isn't that the Red Sox are going to miss the playoffs. Most likely, they won't.

 

The point is that they've moved from "It can't happen because it's never happened," to "It could happen, but it would still be historic."

 

And yes, the same goes for the Rangers (up 3 1/2 games on the Angels in the American League West), and even the Braves (up 4 1/2 games on the Cardinals for the National League wild card).

 

Source

[rluzinski]

I don't put too much weight into those playoff percentages. At one point in August the Giants were a 95% chance to make the playoffs, now look at them. There is a 99% chance that I won't get into a car accident today, but I'm still going to wear my seatbelt. It's baseball and anything can happen.

95% chance just means that we expect that 1 in 20 teams in that situation won't make it. The fact that the Giants were an example of the "won't" does not in any way disprove the utility of these estimates.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would say the amount of injuries the Giants have had to deal with this season would fit within the "well, there's like a 5% chance they'd have that many injuries" category

[rluzinski]

I would say the amount of injuries the Giants have had to deal with this season would fit within the "well, there's like a 5% chance they'd have that many injuries" category

To be fair, I'm not sure if BP takes the probability of injuries into account.

[Oldcity]

This weekend against the Reds: Arroyo and his 40 HR's allowed and a 5.5+ ERA

I'd be shocked if they score more than 3 runs off Arroyo tonight. They always make him look like a Cy Young candidate. With his mid-80's fastball, he looks like the most hittable pitcher in the game, and is right up there for most teams except for the Brewers. This is a team that was shutdown by Kevin Millwood a few days ago, so I expect nothing for tonight. Vegas has the Brewers as dogs FWIW.

May 6, 2009: 1 inning, 9 earned runs

April 18, 2008: 5.2 innings, 4 earned runs

September 21, 2008: 6 innings, 5 earned runs

He's pitched pretty well overall against the Brewers, but it's not like they haven't gotten to him at times in the past. It certainly shouldn't shock anyone to see the Brewers rough him up a bit tonight.

 

[pretendastronaut]

Not to be a doomsdayer, but it was Arroyo who said this;

 

"Through seven, it was probably the easiest start I've had all year. They were being really aggressive and I was getting lucky and getting outs."

 

when he faced us during the dreadful August of 2007.

[packfan79]

I have quit caring at this point this team is backing into the playoffs if they even get there and with the giant hole at the back of the lineup I'd be shocked if they won a game in the playoffs. It's pretty sad if this is as good as it gets...

[jjfanec]

I have quit caring at this point this team is backing into the playoffs if they even get there and with the giant hole at the back of the lineup I'd be shocked if they won a game in the playoffs. It's pretty sad if this is as good as it gets...

Do you realize we have the 3rd best record in baseball! They are 6-9 in their last 15. Their terrible stretch is 3 games under .500. People are acting like we have been horrible. It is just a rough stretch for a team that is still 5.5 up in the division and still has the 3rd best record in baseball. They still have a very good top 3 in the rotation. They still have Braun, Weeks, Fielder, and Hart.

[Oldcity]

This terrible stretch has seen them win 3 of their last 4.

[rluzinski]

Did I mention that I think baseball fans are crazy? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Enjoy this, people.

[jjfanec]

The crew will make all 3 Pitchers look like aces this week it be a big struggle just to win the series.

Oops. They sure didnt make Arroyo look like an ace tonight

[paul253]

People are acting like we have been horrible

 

Up until tonight the offense was horrible. Tonight was the first time in 8 games they score more than 3 runs. They need to find some consistency on offense. If they do they'll get back to playing the way they have been because the pitching has been consistently good.

[jjfanec]

People are acting like we have been horrible

 

Up until tonight the offense was horrible. Tonight was the first time in 8 games they score more than 3 runs. They need to find some consistency on offense. If they do they'll get back to playing the way they have been because the pitching has been consistently good.

Yeah the offense was but we still are 7-9 in our last 16. Not really a terrible stretch of baseball when 6 games were against the Cards and 4 were against the Phils.

 

I am not saying this to you at all, but some Brewer fans have seemed to be really impatient with this team. One little slump and people are jumping off the bandwagon, talking about this season being a disappointment, and how this team is going to miss the playoffs or at best lose in the first round.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I think we need to cut some Brewer fans and some of the casual Brewer fans some slack due to the fact that we haven't won a division since 82 so people don't know how to react and also the 2008 year probably left some scars that haven't quite healed yet.

 

Not only would the Cards have to get as hot as the sun to take the division from us, the Braves would also have to outplay us down the stretch as well for us to miss the playoffs. It's just not going to happen.

 

We're at 99.3% today and that was before the win tonight and the braves loss. We're going to the playoffs.

[danzig6767]

I think we need to cut some Brewer fans and some of the casual Brewer fans some slack due to the fact that we haven't won a division since 82 so people don't know how to react and also the 2008 year probably left some scars that haven't quite healed yet.

 

Not only would the Cards have to get as hot as the sun to take the division from us, the Braves would also have to outplay us down the stretch as well for us to miss the playoffs. It's just not going to happen.

 

We're at 99.3% today and that was before the win tonight and the braves loss. We're going to the playoffs.

Plus, if St. Louis keeps winning, they could potentially pass the Braves for the Wild Card and then we'd end up facing Arizona in the first round. Home field obviously decided by better record between us and AZ, but either way, i wouldn't be terrified to face the D-Backs in the first round like i would with Philly. Then if the Brewers advanced, we might get lucky if the Cardinals knocked off the Phillies.

 

Speaking of Atlanta, they have health problems in their rotation, but in their favor is their next 8 games are against the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals, not exactly tough teams. That said, if St. Louis can keep playing well and lessen to lead to 1-2 games with Atlanta, the Braves last three games are against Philly. If Philadelphia is in that position with three games left, would they play all out to win or rest guys, including starting pitchers? I have to assume that Charlie Manuel will put rest late in the year above worrying about any potential impact those last three games could have on the Wild Card race if St. Louis stays in it.

 

If we finish lower in the standings than Arizona, i'd prefer to see St. Louis pass Atlanta so the Brewers open the playoffs vs the D-Backs instead of the Phillies. That's of course assuming the Cardinals don't pass the Brewers.

[nate82]

The Nationals and the Mets are going to be tough to play no matter who is playing them. The Nationals are not that bad of a team and the Mets are also not that far behind the Nationals. The Astros and Cubs are bad teams the Nationals and Mets are not cake walks also the Marlins are not that bad either.