Climbing up on the Anxiety Meter

[FVBrewerFan]

That's the point. While 99.8% may be statistically accurate, it's a very fluid number that's a bit misleading. I just don't believe there's only a .2% chance the Brewers lose the next 5 and Cards win the next five. Maybe that's the case, just doesn't seem that far out there these days.

[DuWayne Steurer]

9 days ago the Brewers had a 10.5 game lead. In 9 days, they've trimmed it to 5 1/2. At that pace, the Brewers would drop behind the Cardinals with 2 - 3 games left. It's not at all out of the realm of possibility that they could lay a great big fat egg here in September again. In their last 8 games, the Crew has scored 16 runs. Exactly 2 runs per game. No margin of error for the starting pitching. Someone needs to start hitting posty hasty. 4 - 8 over the last 12 games gives the Cards a chance to tie by going 10 - 3. The way both teams are playing right now, again, it's not LIKELY, but it's certainly possible. The Brewers are going into 2 parks where they're a composite 2 - 8 this season, and they went 4 - 11 in those 2 parks last year. So in their last 25 games in Cincy and Wrigley, they're a stellar 6 - 19. The Brewers better hope that Philly shows up against the Cardinals better than they did against the Lastros.

[carniesandrubes]

I'm not concerned. If they continue to play poorly enough that the Cards catch them, they would have likely been swept out of the playoffs anyway playing like that. Both scenarios are just as bad in my opinion.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm reserving the right to panic until after the weekend. I fully expect the Brewers to lose on Friday. They always make Arroyo look like Pedro Martinez in his prime. I'd be happy with one out of three in Cincinnati. The Phillies will probably lie down as well, not to mention that St. Louis is going to miss Halladay. The Brewers need to win at least one and the Cardinals need to lose at least two, or things are going to get real interesting.

[markedman5]

Brewers miss Cueto which should be huge break but since we aren't hitting against anybody maybe it won't be.................

[DatHoser]

This team can't hit their way through a wet tissue, and haven't been able to for a month. Yeah, they should make the playoffs, but unless they snap out of it, it's one and done. There's my anxiety.

[pebadger]

If the magic number is still six or higher on Tuesday morning, this board will be among the most entertaining reads on the internet.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

on scale of 1 to 10, I'm a 20

[Ennder]

No reason at all to panic yet though I wish we were playing better obviously.

[moofnelson]

No reason at all to panic yet though I wish we were playing better obviously.

Yeah,, there really is no reason to panic about the division. But, this team is flat out boring. The Brewers are driving towards only their 2nd division title in FORTY years and they're basically unwatchable right now. Miller Park sounded like the public library last night. It probably would have been a good place to study for an exam.

[Mr QL]

unless we start playing well again it almost doesn't even matter to me, I have absolutely no confidence this team can make any noise in the playoffs looking like they do now even if they can run the clock out on the Cardinals.

[fondybrewfan]

The Crew does a pretty good job of backing into the playoffs. I am not worried about them making it yet; but I am not confident at all that they will get out of the first round. As bad as it sounds; despite the great season thus far I have already switched to football mode. Granted if the Brewers start playing well again I will certainly go crazy during the playoffs but I am just not feeling it.

 

Part of me thinks it is good to get these offensive struggles out now rather than two weeks from now; but another part of me thinks they aren't going to get out of this slump.

 

ARI and ATL are both very beatable; but I am not sure we have a chance against PHI and things certainly seem to be trending toward that matchup in the 1st round.

[jeffy]

I just don't believe there's only a .2% chance the Brewers lose the next 5 and Cards win the next five. Maybe that's the case, just doesn't seem that far out there these days.

 

Well, assuming a odds are 50-50 that they will win or lose each game there is about a 3% chance of winning 5 in a row (0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5=0.03125). If the Brewers have a 3.1% chance of losing 5 in a row and the Cardinals have a 3.1% chance of winning 5 in a row, multiplying those odds tells us that there is a 0.098% chance of both occurring.

 

Even if you put the odds of the Brewers winning each game at only 30%, there is a 17% chance that they lose 5 in a row, similarly if we give the Cardinals a 70% chance of winning (dubious, given 4 games against Philly) they have a 17% chance of winning 5 in a row. That would put the odds of both occurring at about 3%.

 

I think reality is somewhere in between, maybe the Brewers do have close to a 70% chance of losing, but Cardinals vs. Philly is likely under a 50% chance of winning. Suppose we go with 65% chance of Brewers losing each game, that puts them at about a 12% chance of losing 5 in a row, now give the Cardinals generous 50% odds against Philly and 65% against the mets and they have a 4% chance of winning their next 5. The odds of both things occurring are then about 0.5%.

 

Cardinals have 13 games remaining. In their last 13, they are 10-3. If they manage to repeat that in the next 13, the Brewers will have to go at least 5-7 the rest of the way. In their last 12 games, the Brewers are 6-6. Surprising as this would have seemed back in late August, maybe it will come down to the last day, again.

 

A while back I was thinking they'd likely clinch in Cincinnati or Chicago, but that it could possibly happen at home vs. CO. Now I think (hope?) it will happen vs. FL.

[Roderick]

My issue is less anxiety, and more of a slow simmering anger that we continue to see McGehee/Betancourt in the 5/6 spots every day.

This is me also. My only hope is the lead gets so tight that RR finally finds some backbone and puts anyone in for McGehee. But I fear RR thinks just putting Weeks in the 5 hole will be enough.

[jjfanec]

The Cards series with Philly is huge. They miss Lee so that is a boost for them. However, even splitting the series means they probably have to close 8-1 to have a good shot at the division. If they go even 9-4 down the stretch the Brewers only have to go 4-8 to win the division. That with 6 games at home against Florida and Houston. If they take those two series, St Louis could go 9-4 and we could sweep in the other two series and still win the division.

 

Now I want home-field in the first round and we are tied with Arizona for that so we need to find a way to start winning some games. We miss Cueto and Dempster for the next two series. We do get Garza. But we should be able to win a couple against Arroyo, Volquez, Willis, Coleman, and Wells. Now we havent put up a lot of runs against poor pitchers lately so there are no guarantees.

[Samurai Bucky]

It is amazing how things turn around so quickly? A few weeks ago, they were almost untouchable, having a great time, and were playing excellent ball. Now, they are booting balls, making comments about Free Agency in the press (see Prince), and can't hit well at all. It seems that series against the Cardinals at home is what started things down the wrong path. I wonder if there was one event or a quick series of events that caused the chemistry in the locker room to take a hit. Did Roenicke tell them to knock off the antics and that caused a bit of a chemistry issue?

[B2k1121]

No reason at all to panic yet though I wish we were playing better obviously.

Yeah,, there really is no reason to panic about the division. But, this team is flat out boring. The Brewers are driving towards only their 2nd division title in FORTY years and they're basically unwatchable right now. Miller Park sounded like the public library last night. It probably would have been a good place to study for an exam.

It's just like 2008. All along I had a good feeling they would make the Playoffs but they became so boring to watch and everything seemed so predictable down the stretch. Why does that have to happen again? It should be the opposite of boring. I think McGehee and Betancourt back to back every day has taken away all the fun.

[joepepsi]

It's amazing how dysfunctional this offense is, and how the manager consistently avoids putting the best hitters and defenders in the lineup every game. This team won't go far in the playoffs because the offense after Braun and Fielder isn't all that good. There are only 27 outs in the game and Brewers give 12-15 easy outs away every night.

[NievesNoNO]

No reason at all to panic yet though I wish we were playing better obviously.

Yeah,, there really is no reason to panic about the division. But, this team is flat out boring. The Brewers are driving towards only their 2nd division title in FORTY years and they're basically unwatchable right now. Miller Park sounded like the public library last night. It probably would have been a good place to study for an exam.

It's just like 2008. All along I had a good feeling they would make the Playoffs but they became so boring to watch and everything seemed so predictable down the stretch. Why does that have to happen again? It should be the opposite of boring. I think McGehee and Betancourt back to back every day has taken away all the fun.

Wow, boring is leading the division down the stretch? I guess I have a different definition of boring/unwatchable or a different tolerance level for less than stellar play. It only takes one series to get going in the right direction again. Even if they "back into" the playoffs they only need to get hot during the playoffs. I'm not buying into the players looking towards the off-season or there being some sort of change in the locker room all of a sudden. The pitching has still been strong and the bats have fallen a sleep lately, that's it. The defense hasn't been strong the whole year so nothing has really changed.

[jeffy]

the manager consistently avoids putting the best hitters and defenders in the lineup every game.

 

There are 12 games left, time to fire him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right, time for Dale Sveum 2.0

[chadomac]

Although neither is really "news", Fielder and K-Rod sure are stupid for saying what they said at this point in time. This is the worst possible time for any distractions. They need to focus on getting their offense going again.

[Oldcity]

There are 12 games left. 12 games ago they were on top of the world. There's plenty of time for them to start playing better heading in to the playoffs. Even if they aren't playing great when the playoffs start, that doesn't even necessarily mean anything either.

[H4P]

I understand the frustration and panic but it amazes me how quickly things can change in a desperate fan's mind (because I'm one of them). In the middle of the hot streak, I kept telling myself not to get too excited. That they would lose 5-6 in a row because that's just what happens in baseball and that I couldn't panic when that happened.

 

They're 24 games over and have won 2 of their last 3 despite awful offense. They still hold a 5.5 game lead with 12 to play. I just don't think the offense will continue to be as bad as it's been. I HAVE to believe it CAN'T.

 

I'm a little worried about their ability to beat a quality team in the playoffs because they have glaring defensive shortcomings. But over the years, baseball has shown us that you just need a couple of guys to get hot at the right time to carry you through a few weeks (see August).

 

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't getting ever so slightly worried but this has been a great year and I have to believe they'll finish strong.

[brewmann04]

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT EVEN THOUGH THEHOT STREAK THE OFFENSE WAS NOT SHARP . I am more concern now if we don't get sharp pitching the Offense is not there to win games. This is a hugh Weekend for the Crew.