Climbing up on the Anxiety Meter

[jeffy]

I'm pretty sure the Brewers still win the division because they are done with teams over .500 after today, while the Cardinals still have 4 at Philadelphia. But I now expect them to lose in the NLDS. Oh well, this probably means I'll be able to get tickets a lot cheaper...cheapest tickets on stub hub for NLDS game 2 have dropped by about 30% so far, from $85 to $59.

 

As someone posted, I did start thinking they had a good chance of getting to the WS. They could still get lucky as Philadelphia will have to win a short series against someone and luck can be a big factor in a best of 5. The Brewers did win 2 of 3 and came close to sweeping them back in April.

[bucks2281]

Oh well, this probably means I'll be able to get tickets a lot cheaper...cheapest tickets on stub hub for NLDS game 2 have dropped by about 30% so far, from $85 to $59.

 

Not that people are paying attention to this, but dropping to a #3 seed likely means the first home playoff game will be at 12 pm on Tuesday, rather than anytime on Saturday.

[paul253]

So, I guess we can then conclude that the Brewers were not the second

best team in the NL. But does it really matter? Home field advantage

doesn't mean much in the playoffs.

It does matter, especially for this team. 28 games over .500 at home (even after losing 6 in a row at home). 5 games under on the road. It's also a huge difference between going on the road to Philly for the first two of a best of five and staying at home to play Atlanta for the first two. If the Brewers do not have home field and go on the road to play Philly, having to face Halladay and Lee to start, I would be shocked if they even made it to game 5.

[jeffy]

Not that people are paying attention to this, but dropping to a #3 seed likely means the first home playoff game will be at 12 pm on Tuesday, rather than anytime on Saturday.

 

I realized the days would switch, but hadn't thought about the game time.

[nate82]

The Brewers could have won all but one of the games against the Phillies this last series. It is not like the Brewers were completely manhandled by the Phillies this series. The Brewers could have easily taken 3 out of the 4 games this series but they also could have lost all 4 of the games this series. The games were not blowouts they were rather close and with some luck going the other way for the Brewers they would have won 3 out of the 4 games instead of only winning one game. This series showed that the Brewers can hang with the Phillies and play very competitively against them. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox series where the Brewers did not even compete with either team. I am not as worried about this series with the Phillies where the Brewers were in the game for 3 out of the 4 games they played them and could have one any of those games.

[brwrsfan]

All the times of the NLDS games are TBD. One of them will be a day game while one will be a night game. There is no guarantee we'd get the day game.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I was anxious last night and then I went to baseball prospectus. We're still at 99% to make the playoff. Call me when it gets under 90% and then I start to get nervous.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

[logan82]

The Brewers could have won all but one of the games against the Phillies this last series. It is not like the Brewers were completely manhandled by the Phillies this series. The Brewers could have easily taken 3 out of the 4 games this series but they also could have lost all 4 of the games this series. The games were not blowouts they were rather close and with some luck going the other way for the Brewers they would have won 3 out of the 4 games instead of only winning one game. This series showed that the Brewers can hang with the Phillies and play very competitively against them. Unlike the Yankees and Red Sox series where the Brewers did not even compete with either team. I am not as worried about this series with the Phillies where the Brewers were in the game for 3 out of the 4 games they played them and could have one any of those games.

The Phillies were not really at full strength in most games. Of course neither were we.

[TooLiveBrew]

Up until this series, the Brewers were the second best.

 

They had the second-best record. Doesn't mean they were/are the second-best team. The truth is that this team has fattened its record playing bad teams & been handled pretty easily by good teams.

 

 

EDIT: providing support... record v. opponent --

 

ARZ: 3-4

ATL: 3-5

BOS: 1-2

NYY: 0-3

PHI: 3-4

SFG: 3-3

STL: 9-9

 

Combined: 22-30 (.423); drops to 27-38 (.415) if you include Cincy

[bigjase]

Up until this series, the Brewers were the second best.

 

They had the second-best record. Doesn't mean they were/are the second-best team. The truth is that this team has fattened its record playing bad teams & been handled pretty easily by good teams.

 

 

EDIT: providing support... record v. opponent --

 

ARZ: 3-4

ATL: 3-5

BOS: 1-2

NYY: 0-3

PHI: 3-4

SFG: 3-3

STL: 9-9

 

Combined: 22-30 (.423); drops to 27-38 (.415) if you include Cincy

This actually doesn't make me feel that bad about the team. It basically shows that if the Crew makes the playoffs, they'll have about a 50% chance of winning each series. Would it be nice to have a winning record vs the high end of the NL? Absolutely. I can't believe, however, that Atlanta or Philly can feel overly confident that they played 1 or 2 games better than us during the regular season series. It isn't like we were dominated by any of these teams.

 

I realize that overall it is well under .500 when you add all those up, but if you look at the possible teams we would play in the first round, it isn't that bad.

[bucks2281]

All the times of the NLDS games are TBD. One of them will be a day game while one will be a night game. There is no guarantee we'd get the day game.

Games from all 4 series (barring any sweeps) will be on Tuesday. They'll want the Yankees and Red Sox in primetime if possible. A potential game 4 on Wednesaday will be a night game. Just saying ... if you want a good value on a playoff ticket, that's probably how you're going to get one.

[rluzinski]

As a guy who looks at the numbers first and my heart second, it doesn't matter to me at all how the Brewers have fared against teams above and below .500. Overall record and strength of schedule is the first two things I look at. The idea that the Brewers have some team quality that allows that to beat poor teams more often than expected but better teams less often seems silly. How would that even work?

[DuWayne Steurer]

As a guy who looks at the numbers first and my heart second, it doesn't matter to me at all how the Brewers have fared against teams above and below .500. Overall record and strength of schedule is the first two things I look at. The idea that the Brewers have some team quality that allows that to beat poor teams more often than expected but better teams less often seems silly. How would that even work?

I try not to put too much stock into opponent quality. As I said earlier in the threads, I would guess that MOST teams do poorly against teams that are above .500, or those teams wouldn't by the very nature of the nature of the problem, be above .500, right?

 

I also think there's not much in the way of "Well they took 3 of 4 from us back in September, we're doomed in the playoffs" type stuff. If the Phillies beat us in the playoffs, it's not because of what happened over this weekend, it's because they're a better team.

[TooLiveBrew]

The idea that the Brewers have some team quality that allows that to beat poor teams more often than expected but better teams less often seems silly.

 

I guess I would call that "team quality" depth of talent

[JohnBriggs12]

From a playoff perspective it's a good thing that a little pressure has been put on them. To have any chance in October, they will need to regain an edge and this may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

 

I know one thing about the lineup. Morgan should be in there every day regardless of lefty or righty.

[jeffy]

While the Brewers success has seemingly come from beating up on losing teams, the Phillies' has come from beating up on left handers. They are 30-9 vs. left handers and "only" 64-40 vs. right handers (essentially the same winning percentage as the Brewers have against right handers at 70-44).

[DuWayne Steurer]

While the Brewers success has seemingly come from beating up on losing teams, the Phillies' has come from beating up on left handers. They are 30-9 vs. left handers and "only" 64-40 vs. right handers (essentially the same winning percentage as the Brewers have against right handers at 70-44).

Unusual, considering the makeup of the lineup.

[DougJones43]

Okay, now I'm starting to panic a little bit. Lead on St. Louis is down to 5.5 games. Lead on Atlanta is 1 game.

 

I can just see it...

 

"We still have 90% postseason odds."

"We still have 75% postseason odds."

"We still have 60% postseason odds..."

[ilovebeer]

I am at full blown panic. I have all ready convince myself, they won't make the playoffs.

[Oldcity]

Long way to go before it's even 90%. It was 99.8 entering the day, so it might be like 98 tomorrow. I'm not at all worried about missing the playoffs. I'm plenty worried that the DBacks will pass them up. Still, not a huge deal in the grand scheme. While you'd rather not play them first, it's likely they'd have to beat the Phillies anyway. It's easier when you have to beat them three times instead of four.

[Oldcity]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

 

I know one thing about the lineup. Morgan should be in there every day regardless of lefty or righty.

Nope. Morgan cannot hit lefties, and he has a career's worth of numbers to prove it. Now if you said McGehee or Betancourt against righties, then you're talking.

[RockCoCougars]

Good grief, Kershaw just got ejected due to a HBP with a 2-0 lead. This was one game that I counted on Arizona to lose. Now watch the Dodger bullpen gag another one to them on a silver platter.

[DougJones43]

Whenever I hear the Brewers have a 99% chance of winning something, I have flashbacks of June 9th, 2007.

[FVBrewerFan]

99.8% chance the odds of making the playoffs will be a distant memory if they win one game or less on this road trip.

[Oldcity]

Ok... Well that's a huge if. That's like saying 99.8% will be a distant memory if they sweep the road trip, because it will be 100.