Expectations For The Phillies Series

[pebadger]

Some perspective:

 

Cincinatti is closer to St Louis in the standings than St Louis is to Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is playing Philly now. St Louis plays them next week. In Philadelphia. Same four game series.

 

Even if the Brewers get swept by the Phils and the Cards sweep Atlanta, simply going 7-7 the rest of the way forces the Cards to finish 13-3 to TIE for the lead. In other words, unless the Cards WIN the series in Philly, they would have to go unbeaten against everyone else to beat the Brewers if the Brewers play .500 against the Rockies, Reds, Cubs Pirates and Marlins.

 

Having the Crew win just 1 this weekend and go .500 the rest of the way means that the Cards can only lose 2 games the rest of the season and still force a tie. In other words, the Cards would be required to at least split in Philly to have any chance whatsoever.

 

Frankly, if the Brewers don't win the division they will never have been the most deserving it in the first place.

[danzig6767]

Going into this series, i felt we'd be very lucky to score at least three runs off any of Hamels, Halladay, and Lee. That puts so much pressure on our starters to pretty much not make any mistakes at all. Tonight was a perfect example. As soon as Howard hit that home run tonight in the first inning, it really felt like the game was instantly over.

 

I know that the Brewers would face tough odds vs Philly whether it was a 5 or 7 game series, but the thought of playing them in the first round scares me most because the potential is there of such a quick exit from the playoffs, 3-4 games and then bam, such a wonderful season would come to an ugly and quick ending. Even if the Crew doesn't make it to the World Series, i want to at least win the first round series so that will mean 7-10 playoff games to watch.

 

Going to Philly though and the potential easily being there for Lee and Halladay to simply shut down the Brewers offense would be would be a massive bummer if it happened.

[brewtank34]

My faith is dwindling quickly. Win against the teams we should (Cubs, Houston, Pitt), but we can't muster hits/offense against The Cards, Phillies. Not good signs at all.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

The good run came against the weakest part of the schedule, & the struggles have come against the harder portions. I haven't crunched the S.O.S. numbers, but the early part of the Brewers' schedule this season was tough, & this last month or so is pretty tough as well.

Took a look at it... after last night, the Brewers are 22-31 against teams with a winning record. 63-30 against teams with a losing record.

Not sure what's more alarming, their record against good teams or the sheer number of games they've played against bad ones.

[mtrebs]

The good run came against the weakest part of the schedule, & the struggles have come against the harder portions. I haven't crunched the S.O.S. numbers, but the early part of the Brewers' schedule this season was tough, & this last month or so is pretty tough as well.

Took a look at it... after last night, the Brewers are 22-31 against teams with a winning record. 63-30 against teams with a losing record.

Not sure what's more alarming, their record against good teams or the sheer number of games they've played against bad ones.

I always wonder when I hear stats like this...are these numbers referring to the opponent's record when the game was played or their record now?

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I always wonder when I hear stats like this...are these numbers referring to the opponent's record when the game was played or their record now?

I used the record now, mainly because I didn't want to go through 146 games.

[Raw Biz]

mtrebs]

The good run came against the weakest part of the schedule, & the struggles have come against the harder portions. I haven't crunched the S.O.S. numbers, but the early part of the Brewers' schedule this season was tough, & this last month or so is pretty tough as well.

Took a look at it... after last night, the Brewers are 22-31 against teams with a winning record. 63-30 against teams with a losing record.

Not sure what's more alarming, their record against good teams or the sheer number of games they've played against bad ones.

I always wonder when I hear stats like this...are these numbers referring to the opponent's record when the game was played or their record now?

I think if you used the record when they played, it would be very misleading. For example, the Astros could win 2 out of their first 3 and be considered above .500 when they play their second series and conversely, the Phillies could lose 2 out of 3 and be considered under .500. So it's best to use the current record, as you get the biggest sample size possible.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Honestly, I can't take a lot of stock in those stats just because of the huge difference between the number of games we've played against each. I think if we ended up playing more winning teams over the course of the year, then our record would look better against them. Although 22-31 is still a little troubling. I'm less worried about the overall number than I am about the recent play against the Cardinals and Phillies. It could just be that we are in a hitting slump right now, and it's not helping to face elite pitching. It would encourage me if we could come out with a good offensive performance in at least one of the next 2 games.

[chadomac]

Wouldn't most teams have a losing record against teams with a winning record? That's how they got a winning record, by beating a lot of teams.

[pebadger]

Most teams do have a losing record against teams with a winning record. Most teams also don't make the playoffs.

 

In terms of the NL's six winning teams facing of with one another, the Phils have the best current record at 22-18. They are currently 3-1-1 in their season series against those teams. Only STL has a winning record against the Phils of the NL contenders (at 3-2). That may well change by the end of the coming weekend.

 

The Brewers and D-Backs are the two of these 6 squads that have losing records against the other winning teams. The Crew is 21-26 and hasn't won a single series against the best NL competition (they also got smoked by the AL East). Arizona is 18-22 but with the season series win against the Brewers.

 

So even the Phils aren't greatly above .500 against the top NL teams (with 7 games remaining against the Braves and Cards), but they have also unsurprisingly been the best against other good teams. On the other hand, of all the performances by contenders against the other best teams in the NL, the Brewers' has been the worst.

 

To me those raw numbers don't necessarily mean a whole lot, but they do prompt one to wonder and maybe give the results of each of those series a closer look in a search for common threads.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It's just like in college football, where someone will be beating a #1 ranked team, and you'll get a graphic "So and So is 1 - 15 all time against #1 ranked teams". Well duh.