Playoff Pitching Rotation: Should Home/Road Splits Be a Factor?

[pebadger]

We know Greinke's home stats have been much better, across the board, than his road numbers. Gallardo has a much better home ERA than road ERA, though apart from his HR allowed many of his other numbers appear comparable between home and road. Marcum's road ERA is very good as compared to his home ERA, but otherwise his number appear comparable between home and road. Nonetheless, I think it's also fair to say that Marcum has appeared to be more comfortable pitching on the road than Greinke and Gallardo.

 

We can argue the numbers all we want, but in the final analysis that question remains: Should the numbers matter in terms of splits? If so, at what threshold do we start paying attention to them? (Note that this is a very different question from looking at the numbers in a big picture sense).

 

It appears very clear that the Brewers will have home-field advantage for the NLDS. I think it's a no-brainer that Greinke pitches one of the home games. I also think you probably prefer Yo at home and save Marcum for the 3 spot.

 

None of that is very controversial at all, without regard to the H/R splits. But how do you set it up for a 7-gamer at Philly (if you even have the option given how things play out prior to that)? Do you hold ZG back to get a home start in Game 3 and give the first 2 games to Marcum and Yo?

 

There are a bunch of other considerations that factor into the decision. But how much should the splits matter in the final analysis? Will be interesting to see if it matters at all to RR and the braintrust.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, I believe these splits should factor in. As should a starter's recent numbers vs individual players. For example, if they do play the Braves, Greinke should get the 1st start, so he could pitch another game at home if needed. Then I would look at Yo, Marcum, and Wolf's numbers vs the Braves best hitters.

 

It's all about match-ups and in the playoffs you only get one chance to get it right. Now, if they beat the Braves and face Philly, you start the whole process over again. You may need to tweak the rotation, add/remobe Wolf...jsut depends what the numbes look like, how many days off you have to work with, etc.

[jhart05]

Absolutely they should factor in. Gallardo and Greinke, in whichever order you like, start Games 1 and 2 at home. Marcum starts game 3 on the road. Anything else would be a HUGE mistake. (Also, I don't for even one second think RR would make that mistake.)

 

 

"Do you hold ZG back to get a home start in Game 3 and give the first 2 games to Marcum and Yo?"

 

- Yes!!

 

So I would go Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, to make it easier to switch Marcum and Greinke against the Phillies if by chance they get that far. Then you have Marcum going in Games 2 and 6, which would both be on the road.

 

 

[endaround]

No

[topper09er]

This is a decision that cant be made with stats, there isn't enough to know either way. It needs to be made based on talking to these guys and getting a feel for if they actually do feel more or less comfortable at home or away. If they straight up ask Greinke if he has a preference and he says he'd rather pitch at home Id do that.

[ramssuperbowl99]

They should use the park factors to their advantage in combination with the starters' GB rates.

Marcum, for example, is a crazy FB pitcher. That means he should pitch on the road versus the Braves and at home against the Phillies/D'Backs, since Turner Field suppresses HRs in comparison to Miller Park whereas Citizen's Bank is a shoebox and the air in the D'Backs stadium means every flyball leaves the yard.

[topper09er]

We could try this

 

National League Division Series

Series	Date	Pitcher	Days Rest
NLDS Game One	Saturday, October 1	Greinke	4
NLDS Game Two	Sunday, October 2	Gallardo	4
NLDS Game Three	Tuesday, October 4	Marcum	5
NLDS Game Four*	Wednesday, October 5	Wolf	a lot
NLDS Game Five*	Friday, October 7	Greinke	5

National League Championship Series

Series	Date	Pitcher	Days Rest
NLCS Game One	Sunday, October 9	Gallardo	6
NLCS Game Two	Monday, October 10	Marcum	5
NLCS Game Three	Wednesday, October 12	Greinke	4
NLCS Game Four	Thursday, October 13	Wolf	7
NLCS Game Five*	Friday, October 14	Gallardo	4
NLCS Game Six*	Sunday, October 16	Marcum	5
NLCS Game Seven*	Monday, October 17	Greinke	4

 

Which means for the last week of the season we would want to have Greinke, Gallardo then Marcum start the last 3 games of the season vs the Pirates to get them back to normal-ish rest. The week before we could give them a little rest and use our off days and Estrada.

[FVBrewerFan]

I like it Topper. Of course, if the Brewers win the NLDS in 3 or 4 games, you can have Greinke going game 1 of NLCS

[Schlitz001]

We know Greinke's home stats have been much better, across the board, than his road numbers. Gallardo has a much better home ERA than road ERA, though apart from his HR allowed many of his other numbers appear comparable between home and road. Marcum's road ERA is very good as compared to his home ERA, but otherwise his number appear comparable between home and road. Nonetheless, I think it's also fair to say that Marcum has appeared to be more comfortable pitching on the road than Greinke and Gallardo.

Normally I would say that home/road splits don't matter and that you should pitch your best pitcher first, but Greinke is a special case. He has a history of anxiety and his numbers clearly reflect an advantage pitching at home. Greinke has a K/BB at home for his career of 4.13 compared to 2.95 on the road and his ERA is 3.47 at home and 4.26 on the road. With no clear #1 pitcher on this team, it makes sense to give Greinke home starts when possible. It helps that it will likely line up that he pitches at home anyway, for the first series at least (wood being knocked).

 

On the surface Gallardo's numbers look better at home, but his peripherals suggest that he is not that much better at home than his ERA splits suggest. As long as Gallardo, Marcum and Greinke are the first 3 pitchers in the series, I don't really care how they line up, but it would seem to be beneficial to give Greinke the home starts if possible.

[Funketown]

No. At home, Zack Greinke > Yovani Gallardo > Shaun Marcum > Randy Wolf. On the road, Zack Greinke > Yovani Gallardo > Shaun Marcum > Randy Wolf.

[rluzinski]

O my goodness, no they should not factor in the results of a handful of starts. You could find all kinds of random splits if you wanted to fish around for them. Recent stats against individual batters? I've said this a million times but high school math can prove the folly of that.

 

They should use the park factors to their advantage in combination with the starters' GB rates.

 

That's the kind of analysis that needs to be done.

[dlk9s]

They should use the park factors to their advantage in combination with the starters' GB rates.

Marcum, for example, is a crazy FB pitcher. That means he should pitch on the road versus the Braves and at home against the Phillies/D'Backs, since Turner Field suppresses HRs in comparison to Miller Park whereas Citizen's Bank is a shoebox and the air in the D'Backs stadium means every flyball leaves the yard.

I was thinking this same thing, mainly the part about looking at who are the best GB pitchers in case we get to play at Philly.

[FVBrewerFan]

Upon further review, Wolf should get a start vs Atlanta. Braves hit .649 vs LHP, .729 vs RHP. That is a significant split, and Bourn brings that down even a bit further. Finally it's not like Wolf has been some type of serviceable #4 starter, he has been as consistent as anyone.

[bucks2281]

I honestly want Wolf starting twice against the Braves. Atlanta's OPS against LHP is the lowest among all 16 NL teams.

 

G1 @ MIL: Wolf

G2 @ MIL: Greinke

G3 @ ATL: Marcum

G4 @ ATL: Gallardo

G5 @ MIL: Wolf

[chuckiehacks]

One other thing to consider (and I'm mentioning this without looking up the stats) - doesn't it seem like everytime Yo is given extra rest he pitches poorly? Maybe I'm just thinking of a few anecdotal episodes, but it's worth exploring.

[B2k1121]

I know most on here hate the suggestion that mental state or emotion could have any impact on playing the game, but I would think you would want to keep someone with social anxiety disorder as comfortable as possible. If he's comfortable at home, let him pitch at home.

[rluzinski]

I honestly want Wolf starting twice against the Braves. Atlanta's OPS against LHP is the lowest among all 16 NL teams.

 

G1 @ MIL: Wolf

G2 @ MIL: Greinke

G3 @ ATL: Marcum

G4 @ ATL: Gallardo

G5 @ MIL: Wolf

We have to look at a lot more than just Atlanta's season split to determine if Wolf should get the extra start over Greinke. Yes, Wolf would be facing potentially 4 lefties in the lineup. I don't think that gets close to counteracting the fact that Greinke's ERA projects to be about a run better than Wolf, though.

[FoxyFoxes]

Wolf twice against the Braves in an interesting out of the box idea...but I don't see them doing it.

[dlk9s]

Have Wolf, Yo, Zack, and Marcum each pitch 2 innings a game with Ax closing when necessary.

[cwolf2012]

"Have Wolf, Yo, Zack, and Marcum each pitch 2 innings a game with Ax closing when necessary. "

 

Agreed. If you're capable of pitching 7-8 innings every 5 days, then you should be able to space those out over the 5 days and have no issues at all.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I know most on here hate the suggestion that mental state or emotion could have any impact on playing the game, but I would think you would want to keep someone with social anxiety disorder as comfortable as possible. If he's comfortable at home, let him pitch at home.

 

 

I completely agree. If you can rationalize Greinke's home/road splits for this reason, why not implement that strategy? His Social Anxiety is a known issue which can be worked around.

[rluzinski]

I know most on here hate the suggestion that mental state or emotion could have any impact on playing the game, but I would think you would want to keep someone with social anxiety disorder as comfortable as possible. If he's comfortable at home, let him pitch at home.

 

 

I completely agree. If you can rationalize Greinke's home/road splits for this reason, why not implement that strategy? His Social Anxiety is a known issue which can be worked around.

Is it still an issue? Just you can rationalize a reason for the splits does not make it the cause of it. A couple months ago, people were coming up with all kinds of reasons why the Brewers should be expected to continue to stink on the road. Some of them may have sounded plausible but there was no evidence that any them were true. It's just speculation.

If Greinke says it's an issue, the Brewers would have to seriously consider modifying the rotation to accommodate him. Otherwise, it's just an interesting theory, IMO.

 

[dlk9s]

I don't think there's necessarily any issue with Grienke, but in my opinion, might as well try to put him in the most comfortable situation possible, just to avoid any possibility, however remote, that he problems arise.

 

I figure, assuming we end up with home field in the NLDS, an easy way to set the rotation would be Grienke and Yo at home in some order, Marcum and Wolf on the road, and then either Grienke or Yo for Game 5 at home. That way, Grienke gets to pitch at home, Yo gets to pitch at home (where I think he does better - I'm too lazy to check right now), Marcum and Wolf generally seem fine on the road, and then either the Game 2 pitcher can go on normal rest in Game 5, or the Game 1 pitcher can go on an extra day rest. Either way, your two best pitchers are available for that game.