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2011-08-28 Cubs (Coleman) at Brewers (Greinke) - [Brewers sweep, 3-2]

pretendastronaut

By pretendastronaut,
in Archived Game Threads

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a3uge College Ball

a3uge

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Does anybody know around what is the ratio of Cubs fans to Brewers fans at Miller Park for this series? I used to hate it when it was like 50/50 or worse but imagine now there are far less Cubs fans. Hopefully when the Brewers play at Wrigley it will be 50% brewer fans there.

I was at the game Friday, and I think it was about 15-20%. I was up in the terrace, so I'm not sure if that means anything. The Cubs fans that were there were pretty obnoxious as usual. One over-weight girl kept standing up and flipping people off. She tried to start the wave about a dozen times and never shut up. Don't think she saw a single pitch. There was also a 7-year old kid who kept yelling "Braun sucks" and "Fielder sucks" and other Brewers suck things while his dad watched him. Then there was this older guy who kept yelling "Princess sucks" in front of his 8-year old daughter. He would also yell "Soriano you suck, retire" whenever Alfonso was up, so I guess he was being equally negative toward both teams.

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Which is why having a pitcher sac bunt doesn't bother me - I'm not universally against it.

Why do you think Morgan bunting against Halladay is any better than him bunting against, say, Jon Niese? You're giving away and out against Halladay, and not only that, you're giving away an out to a guy who has good strikeout numbers and never walks anyone.

 

Its better to bunt against Halladay because you are more likely to make an out anyways, so if you are going to make an out why not try to significantly increase the chance it will be a productive out. Your point about Halladay K'ing batters with few walks just adds to my point that you are more likely to end the AB with 1 out R1 if you swing away.
This just means that getting hits are all the more valuable, and particularly when you already have a runner on.
Actually hits are less valuable in a lower run scoring environment because they are less likely to lead to runs, and playing small ball is more valuable than in a higher run scoring environment.

 

Events 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Single 0.238 0.333 0.398 0.448 0.488 0.522 0.551 0.576 0.599 0.619
Double 0.407 0.556 0.653 0.725 0.781 0.826 0.864 0.896 0.923 0.947
Triple 0.572 0.773 0.901 0.994 1.065 1.121 1.167 1.206 1.238 1.265
HR 1.236 1.31 1.354 1.384 1.406 1.422 1.434 1.443 1.449 1.454
Walk 0.144 0.21 0.257 0.295 0.327 0.354 0.378 0.4 0.42 0.438
IBB 0.069 0.112 0.145 0.174 0.198 0.221 0.241 0.26 0.278 0.294
HBP 0.159 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.353 0.382 0.407 0.429 0.449 0.468
Error 0.248 0.346 0.413 0.464 0.506 0.54 0.57 0.595 0.618 0.638
Interference 0.175 0.251 0.304 0.346 0.38 0.41 0.436 0.459 0.48 0.498
OtherSafe 0.336 0.462 0.546 0.608 0.657 0.698 0.732 0.761 0.786 0.808
Sac 0.041 0.011 -0.031 -0.078 -0.129 -0.181 -0.234 -0.288 -0.343 -0.398
Strikeout -0.068 -0.132 -0.195 -0.256 -0.316 -0.376 -0.435 -0.493 -0.551 -0.608
Out -0.06 -0.122 -0.184 -0.244 -0.304 -0.363 -0.421 -0.479 -0.537 -0.594
SB 0.113 0.149 0.17 0.184 0.195 0.202 0.208 0.212 0.216 0.218
CS -0.166 -0.261 -0.342 -0.416 -0.486 -0.552 -0.616 -0.678 -0.738 -0.798
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ramssuperbowl99 College Ball

ramssuperbowl99

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Its better to bunt against Halladay because you are more likely to make an out anyways, so if you are going to make an out why not try to significantly increase the chance it will be a productive out. Your point about Halladay K'ing batters with few walks just adds to my point that you are more likely to end the AB with 1 out R1 if you swing away.
This just means that getting hits are all the more valuable, and particularly when you already have a runner on.
Actually hits are less valuable in a lower run scoring environment because they are less likely to lead to runs, and playing small ball is more valuable than in a higher run scoring environment.

 

Events 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Single 0.238 0.333 0.398 0.448 0.488 0.522 0.551 0.576 0.599 0.619
Double 0.407 0.556 0.653 0.725 0.781 0.826 0.864 0.896 0.923 0.947
Triple 0.572 0.773 0.901 0.994 1.065 1.121 1.167 1.206 1.238 1.265
HR 1.236 1.31 1.354 1.384 1.406 1.422 1.434 1.443 1.449 1.454
Walk 0.144 0.21 0.257 0.295 0.327 0.354 0.378 0.4 0.42 0.438
IBB 0.069 0.112 0.145 0.174 0.198 0.221 0.241 0.26 0.278 0.294
HBP 0.159 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.353 0.382 0.407 0.429 0.449 0.468
Error 0.248 0.346 0.413 0.464 0.506 0.54 0.57 0.595 0.618 0.638
Interference 0.175 0.251 0.304 0.346 0.38 0.41 0.436 0.459 0.48 0.498
OtherSafe 0.336 0.462 0.546 0.608 0.657 0.698 0.732 0.761 0.786 0.808
Sac 0.041 0.011 -0.031 -0.078 -0.129 -0.181 -0.234 -0.288 -0.343 -0.398
Strikeout -0.068 -0.132 -0.195 -0.256 -0.316 -0.376 -0.435 -0.493 -0.551 -0.608
Out -0.06 -0.122 -0.184 -0.244 -0.304 -0.363 -0.421 -0.479 -0.537 -0.594
SB 0.113 0.149 0.17 0.184 0.195 0.202 0.208 0.212 0.216 0.218
CS -0.166 -0.261 -0.342 -0.416 -0.486 -0.552 -0.616 -0.678 -0.738 -0.798

Care to explain the "events" row? Is that the amount of runs scored or something?

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Care to explain the "events" row? Is that the amount of runs scored or something?
O sorry, missed that. It is runs scored per game per team. The NL this year is 4.15, the Brewers are 4.46 and in games Roy Halladay starts his opponents score 3.2 R/G.
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ramssuperbowl99 College Ball

ramssuperbowl99

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Care to explain the "events" row? Is that the amount of runs scored or something?
O sorry, missed that. It is runs scored per game per team. The NL this year is 4.15, the Brewers are 4.46 and in games Roy Halladay starts his opponents score 3.2 R/G.
Interesting. I appreciate the data, it's completely against what I would assume. However, I think you understand my beef with RRR and the sheer number of bunts/hit and runs/squeezes/etc?
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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Yes, RRR (Like all managers except TLR) rarely considers the context of an AB before making his decision. He is of the "almost always bunt" school with Morgan and pitchers. Just the opposite of Macha who was of the "dont do anything except sit around and wait for HRs" school. They are both wrong.
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a3uge College Ball

a3uge

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I don't understand Yuni. He's not guessing wrong, and he's not striking out. When Bill Hall sucked, he was sucking because he couldn't tell the difference between a fastball down the middle and a curve ball in the dirt. Yuni seems to be hitting it in play, but to left field or popped straight up. He doesn't appear to be completely lost at the plate, or whiffing at pitches, but he produces the same results every time. Frustrating.
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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Davey Nelson vs. English is always such a struggle for him... Glad to know that Hart is "flashing the wood", though.
And Brewers live gets its first NC-17 rating.
Don't forget about one of his most memorable Nellie's Nugget, when trying to say Claudio Vargas should throw lots of strikes

 

"Vargas pounds meat"

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