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2011-08-28 Cubs (Coleman) at Brewers (Greinke) - [Brewers sweep, 3-2]

pretendastronaut

By pretendastronaut,
in Archived Game Threads

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ramssuperbowl99 College Ball

ramssuperbowl99

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Productive outs > regular outs. Just saying, players get out more than 60% of the time. Also buns usually get out of double play chances. How many DPs does this team have?
That doesn't mean you should give away outs, and that's what bunts are.

27 outs >>>>>> 25 outs

 

Its not absolute, good managers understand that you are going to make all of those 27 outs, so if you can pick a spot when you think a player has a bad chance of reaching base and not making a productive out then it is better to bunt. The real skill is understand that there are spots to bunt, however basically no one does this and you either get guys like RRR who will bunt every single time or people with your mentality who thinks every single bunt is a waste.

 

Today might be a bad day for Morgan to bunt since this pitcher is particularly bad vs lefties, but if Morgan is facing Roy Halladay I say you bunt.

Which is why having a pitcher sac bunt doesn't bother me - I'm not universally against it.

Why do you think Morgan bunting against Halladay is any better than him bunting against, say, Jon Niese? You're giving away and out against Halladay, and not only that, you're giving away an out to a guy who has good strikeout numbers and never walks anyone.

 

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a3uge College Ball

a3uge

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"Typically the Brewers have had the green light on 3-0"

I hear them say this all the time, but rarely seem to see them swinging. Out of 123 PA, the Brewers have put 12 AB (balls in play) from the 3-0 count. 3H 4R 2HR 4RBI (0 K lol).
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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Actually bb-ref is showing of the 9 "failed" sac bunt attempts Morgan has 1 reached on error and 5 hits, so Im not sure why a hit is considered a failed sac bunt.

 

So in terms of straight sacs that didnt result in a hit Morgan is 11 for 15 with 0 GIDP.

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topper09er ACL Brewers

topper09er

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Which is why having a pitcher sac bunt doesn't bother me - I'm not universally against it.

Why do you think Morgan bunting against Halladay is any better than him bunting against, say, Jon Niese? You're giving away and out against Halladay, and not only that, you're giving away an out to a guy who has good strikeout numbers and never walks anyone.

 

Its better to bunt against Halladay because you are more likely to make an out anyways, so if you are going to make an out why not try to significantly increase the chance it will be a productive out. Your point about Halladay K'ing batters with few walks just adds to my point that you are more likely to end the AB with 1 out R1 if you swing away.
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liveforoctober First Round Pick

liveforoctober

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Random bunt FTL.

These bunts are going to be the end of me. We've given away 2 of the 4 outs we've made this game.

Slight argument could be made that we are winning because of it too. Do I think Hart scores on that double from first ... yeah. But the Brewers bunt the second most of any team in the league and when you are playing close games and can get guys into scoring position for the two guys leading the way right now in the MVP race ... I think it's often a good decision. I actually think Morgan is unbelievably unselfish and extremely smart for how often he bunts/sacrifices.

I have no comment on Yuni's bunt.
Worst case, Hart goes to 3rd base on Braun's double. Then Prince sac-flys him home.

Bunts are useless more often than not.

 

In Braun's 453 official at bats this season ... he has doubled, tripled, or homered 64 times. (14% of at bats) He has singled in 87 of those (19% of at bats). So all else equal, If Hart remains on first for Braun's at-bat .. he will score during that at bat 14% of the time and if he is advanced to 2nd for that at bat he will score 33% of the time. I won't go into what happens if Braun gets out and Prince is then up with a runner on 2nd vs. 1st.

I guess I disagree with your sarcasm regarding Halladay ("let's give you 2-3 free outs") ... because when Halladay is mowing down the bottom part of our order, if we can steal a run or two via the "hated" small ball, you do it. The only favorable match-ups we have against guys like Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Jurrjens, Hanson, etc are Braun and Fielder and so if you can get guys into scoring position for those few at bats during a game ... you do it.

I understand Casey Coleman isn't one of those pitchers, so this argument isn't for this game.. but I am ok with the philosophy. In years past we haven't had the pitching to win 3-2 or 2-1 games ... we needed big innings to win. That isn't the case this year.

 

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ramssuperbowl99 College Ball

ramssuperbowl99

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Which is why having a pitcher sac bunt doesn't bother me - I'm not universally against it.

Why do you think Morgan bunting against Halladay is any better than him bunting against, say, Jon Niese? You're giving away and out against Halladay, and not only that, you're giving away an out to a guy who has good strikeout numbers and never walks anyone.

 

Its better to bunt against Halladay because you are more likely to make an out anyways, so if you are going to make an out why not try to significantly increase the chance it will be a productive out. Your point about Halladay K'ing batters with few walks just adds to my point that you are more likely to end the AB with 1 out R1 if you swing away.
This just means that getting hits are all the more valuable, and particularly when you already have a runner on.
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a3uge College Ball

a3uge

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As much as it's frustrating to watch Corey wave by pitches that are low and away, he still LOVES that pitch when it's near the plate. If you're going to throw that to Corey, you make sure it's outside. Corey's been ridiculous this series.
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Polish Falcons College Ball

Polish Falcons

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Does anybody know around what is the ratio of Cubs fans to Brewers fans at Miller Park for this series? I used to hate it when it was like 50/50 or worse but imagine now there are far less Cubs fans. Hopefully when the Brewers play at Wrigley it will be 50% brewer fans there.
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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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Polish Falcons wrote:

Does anybody know around what is the ratio of Cubs fans to Brewers fans at Miller Park for this series? I used to hate it when it was like 50/50 or worse but imagine now there are far less Cubs fans. Hopefully when the Brewers play at Wrigley it will be 50% brewer fans there.



Just from the sound of the crowd it sounds like at least 85/15 Brewers.
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