Taylor Green called up

[yoshii8]

Great news, congrats Taylor Green! Hopefully he gets the job done.

[TooLiveBrew]

For reference's sake, Erick Almonte's slash line at Nashville this season (243 PA): .300/.387/.455/.842. Green's is .336/.413/.583/.997. Green's had one of the best offensive seasons of anyone at the AAA level, & will hit with the Brewers. If nothing else, this will be a solid LH bat off the bench. I would much rather see him get starts, though.

[trwi7]

Now that Betancourt's "hot streak" is over I'd like to see Green start at 2B and Hairston get the starts over Betancourt at SS. Even if Green is a butcher at 2B, we're just replacing a butcher at SS with a butcher at 2B.

[BoKnowsBall]

And I know you can't just take out certain games but those numbers are inflated by his 3 HR game.

It is pretty bad to take out someone's best game as everyone would look worse and you are manipulating data but here you go:

 

Since the All-Star break without the 3 HR game:

 

.263/.315/.368/.683

[Bernman23]

And I know you can't just take out certain games but those numbers are inflated by his 3 HR game.

It is pretty bad to take out someone's best game as everyone would look worse and you are manipulating data but here you go:

 

Since the All-Star break without the 3 HR game:

 

.263/.315/.368/.683

Well, take out his best and worst games to be fair then. The 3 HR game skews #'s more than an 0 for 5 with 5 K's.

 

I think it's just to use the 3-run game as a qualifier when mentioning the supposed turnaround because it's a huge outlier and consistent offense beats inconsistent offense.

[a3uge]

Since JHJ has come here, he's had a .258 BA, .303 OBP, .626 OPS

Yuni in that stretch is .255, .274, .685.

I don't see them moving JHJ into that role. The value of Yuni is that he has proved he can go on a hot streak, and I think it would be wrong to think he can't do it again. He's a streaky hitter, and the Brewers are hoping he gets hot again come the end of the year. The value Yuni has over JHJ is that he has some power and puts the ball in play. JHJ is a career .258 hitter, hasn't hit over 10 HR in a season, and he's in the tail end of his career. Yuni has more promise at this point as a 6-hole hitter. I think the Brewers should have more of a power-hitter (especially with Casey's power numbers down) than a guy who will draw more walks. I think Jerry works at the bottom as a 7/8 hitter as someone who will get on base in various ways, but the 6-spot should get more chances with runners on, and having a guy who has the power can give an advantage over someone who relies on singles and walks.

As far as making drastic moves, it's just way to late in the season to experiment with minor league players. They've gotten 9.5 games up with these guys, so I think the last thing they want to do at this point is put unproven guys in and lose momentum. Gamel got called up and went 3 for 27. Why would they risk a .115 batting average when guys like Casey and Yuni are at their career statistical averages since the all-star break? I like moving Green up, and if he proves some success, he'll find some playing time. If Gamel lit it up when he got called, he would've definitely been at least platooning.

The question we should be asking: Is it more likely minor league call-ups come to the bigs and immediately start batting hot, or is it more likely Casey plays like he did last year, or Yuni gets on another hot streak? As much as I like the idea of Green tearing it up and starting in place of a player who is clearly under-performing, I don't see it happening, and I think there's too much risk involved trying something drastic when the team is up 9.5 (could be 10 today) games.

I really hope I'm wrong with this, and we see Green tear it up in his limited appearances, but I would be less surprised if he gets 10 plate appearances, strikes out a couple times and gets a base hit or two.

[Bernman23]

Since JHJ has come here, he's had a .258 BA, .303 OBP, .626 OPS

Yuni in that stretch is .255, .274, .685.

I don't see them moving JHJ into that role. The value of Yuni is that he has proved he can go on a hot streak, and I think it would be wrong to think he can't do it again. He's a streaky hitter, and the Brewers are hoping he gets hot again come the end of the year. The value Yuni has over JHJ is that he has some power and puts the ball in play. JHJ is a career .258 hitter, hasn't hit over 10 HR in a season, and he's in the tail end of his career. Yuni has more promise at this point as a 6-hole hitter. I think the Brewers should have more of a power-hitter (especially with Casey's power numbers down) than a guy who will draw more walks. I think Jerry works at the bottom as a 7/8 hitter as someone who will get on base in various ways, but the 6-spot should get more chances with runners on, and having a guy who has the power can give an advantage over someone who relies on singles and walks.

As far as making drastic moves, it's just way to late in the season to experiment with minor league players. They've gotten 9.5 games up with these guys, so I think the last thing they want to do at this point is put unproven guys in and lose momentum. Gamel got called up and went 3 for 27. Why would they risk a .115 batting average when guys like Casey and Yuni are at their career statistical averages since the all-star break? I like moving Green up, and if he proves some success, he'll find some playing time. If Gamel lit it up when he got called, he would've definitely been at least platooning.

The question we should be asking: Is it more likely minor league call-ups come to the bigs and immediately start batting hot, or is it more likely Casey plays like he did last year, or Yuni gets on another hot streak? As much as I like the idea of Green tearing it up and starting in place of a player who is clearly under-performing, I don't see it happening, and I think there's too much risk involved trying something drastic when the team is up 9.5 (could be 10 today) games.

I really hope I'm wrong with this, and we see Green tear it up in his limited appearances, but I would be less surprised if he gets 10 plate appearances, strikes out a couple times and gets a base hit or two.

David Price, Jacoby Ellsbury, K-Rod, etc. were late season call ups who were assets to World Series victors.

 

The Brewers won't be 10 games up on the Atlanta Braves. It's a fresh start for the playoffs.

 

Just because you accomplished a ten-game lead with a certain roster doesn't mean everybody on that team were positive contributors toward that achievement. Good teams have bad players and bad teams have good players. A playoff team strengthening the weaker links is one way that will potentially propel them to WS Champions. The Red Sox have less weak links in their lineup in spite of having to use 9 batters. How would we match up with them in a playoff series against them trotting out Yuni B, McGehee, Hairston/Gomez, and Kotsay as DH, especially when the Sox's lineup have roughed up Brewers' pitching this season. You gotta have firepower when you're going to face the Red Sox lineup, and Phils' CY Young pitching. Not a SS who has always been a poor hitter and can be baited into swinging at nearly every pitch that's remotely close, plus a mediocre minor leaguer who the best thing you can say about him this season is that he's been a mediocre major leaguer the 2nd half.

[PKBadger]

When analyzing McGehee's performance, we should take out today's HR as well since he used to be teammates with Dempster.

[Bernman23]

Well, let's hope the Taylor Green promo has fired McGehee up. It shouldn't have taken that, but if it did, having Taylor Green on the team will have done its job.

[rluzinski]

And I know you can't just take out certain games but those numbers are inflated by his 3 HR game.

It is pretty bad to take out someone's best game as everyone would look worse and you are manipulating data but here you go:

 

Since the All-Star break without the 3 HR game:

 

.263/.315/.368/.683

Well, take out his best and worst games to be fair then. The 3 HR game skews #'s more than an 0 for 5 with 5 K's.

 

I think it's just to use the 3-run game as a qualifier when mentioning the supposed turnaround because it's a huge outlier and consistent offense beats inconsistent offense.

I don't think it should be mentioned in isolation as some extra evidence but there is NO justification for excluding it under any circumstances. It happened.

[a3uge]

David Price, Jacoby Ellsbury, K-Rod, etc. were late season call ups who were assets to World Series victors.

 

The Brewers won't be 10 games up on the Atlanta Braves. It's a fresh start for the playoffs.

 

Just because you accomplished a ten-game lead with a certain roster doesn't mean everybody on that team were positive contributors toward that achievement. Good teams have bad players and bad teams have good players. A playoff team strengthening the weaker links is one way that will potentially propel them to WS Champions. The Red Sox have less weak links in their lineup in spite of having to use 9 batters. How would we match up with them in a playoff series against them trotting out Yuni B, McGehee, Hairston/Gomez, and Kotsay as DH, especially when the Sox's lineup have roughed up Brewers' pitching this season. You gotta have firepower when you're going to face the Red Sox lineup, and Phils' CY Young pitching. Not a SS who has always been a poor hitter and can be baited into swinging at nearly every pitch that's remotely close, plus a mediocre minor leaguer who the best thing you can say about him this season is that he's been a mediocre major leaguer the 2nd half.

You're giving the assumption that minor league call ups will produce better numbers than the two statistically average guys. They're certainly going to try and see if Green will do anything, and if he does, they may consider platooning, but I don't see this happening and it's not worth the risk of having a rookie in your line-up with literally less than a month of experience for the playoffs. I think there's a general myth that if a player isn't batting hot, he's automatically as valuable as anybody. There's the 'we couldn't get any worse' argument that is full of crap. Gamel batting around .200 is worse than someone who's around .240-.250.

If you're arguing that they should have acquired a quality SS and 3B, I would imagine they tried, but as a small market team, you simply can't magically obtain decent players at every position.

Having weak bats in your line-up isn't all that rare. Teams have even won the World Series with over half of the lineup batting under .270.

 

[Ayt]

You are assuming rookies can't produce in the playoffs.

 

Why is the BA of the Giants important?

[LouisEly]

I don't think it should be mentioned in isolation as some extra evidence but there is NO justification for excluding it under any circumstances. It happened.

And it happened against the Cardinals so if anything it should be counted twice.

[a3uge]

You are assuming rookies can't produce in the playoffs.

 

Why is the BA of the Giants important?

Yes. I am assuming a player with legitimately 0 career major league at bats until September will produce at a high rate in the playoffs. I don't think that's all that far-fetched to assume. I think statistics are on my side, and even if a success story in the situation is found, it's probably an outlier. The fact playoff teams aren't regularly calling up brand new prospects and plumping them into starting roles should be proof enough that it's probably not a good idea.

The batting average of the Giants is a response to the argument that teams with holes in their lineup can't win a World Series. I brought up the Giants because it was the obvious and most recent case. The 2009 Phillies only had one player batting over .290 in their every-day lineup. The fact the Brewers have two MVP-caliber players in their line-up should compensate for players who aren't batting over .250. If teams can win series with great pitching, why the hell would the Brewers risk putting a huge unproven liability in at 3B when they have average production (historically enough to win the WS) at 3B.

[endaround]

Yes. I am assuming a player with legitimately 0 career major league at bats until September will produce at a high rate in the playoffs. I don't think that's all that far-fetched to assume. I think statistics are on my side, and even if a success story in the situation is found, it's probably an outlier. The fact playoff teams aren't regularly calling up brand new prospects and plumping them into starting roles should be proof enough that it's probably not a good idea.

The batting average of the Giants is a response to the argument that teams with holes in their lineup can't win a World Series. I brought up the Giants because it was the obvious and most recent case. The 2009 Phillies only had one player batting over .290 in their every-day lineup. The fact the Brewers have two MVP-caliber players in their line-up should compensate for players who aren't batting over .250. If teams can win series with great pitching, why the hell would the Brewers risk putting a huge unproven liability in at 3B when they have average production (historically enough to win the WS) at 3B.

Its amusing you say that following a team with Francisco Rodriquez on it.

[a3uge]

Yes. I am assuming a player with legitimately 0 career major league at bats until September will produce at a high rate in the playoffs. I don't think that's all that far-fetched to assume. I think statistics are on my side, and even if a success story in the situation is found, it's probably an outlier. The fact playoff teams aren't regularly calling up brand new prospects and plumping them into starting roles should be proof enough that it's probably not a good idea.

The batting average of the Giants is a response to the argument that teams with holes in their lineup can't win a World Series. I brought up the Giants because it was the obvious and most recent case. The 2009 Phillies only had one player batting over .290 in their every-day lineup. The fact the Brewers have two MVP-caliber players in their line-up should compensate for players who aren't batting over .250. If teams can win series with great pitching, why the hell would the Brewers risk putting a huge unproven liability in at 3B when they have average production (historically enough to win the WS) at 3B.

Its amusing you say that following a team with Francisco Rodriquez on it.

Again, I'm sure you can find a couple players who performed well, but the majority of these players won't find immediate success.

And relief pitching is a different story. If you're locating 97 mph fast balls in the minors, chances are, you'll get similar success in the majors. Unless your name is Ryan Braun, call-ups require some settling in and consistent at-bats. When a minor league pitcher shows consistency and throws hard (Strasburg), it's not surprising they have immediate success. When a player who tears up the minors and fails to bat above .250 in the majors (Gamel), it's not all that surprising.

And let me remind you, it's not a desperate Bill Hall-caliber situation. It's not an injury situation either. It's not worth the risk of ruining even average production over a rookie with potential.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's also ironic you bring up the Giants as a team who won the WS with holes in the lineup, when a guy who played a huge role happened to be........a rookie.

[igor67]

Do you have any particular rigorous data that shows that players consistently underperform their expected production (MLE) for the first 10, or 20, or 100 ABs? Granted 50% of all players hit worse than their median expectation, but you are asserting essentially a universal phenomena.

[a3uge]

It's also ironic you bring up the Giants as a team who won the WS with holes in the lineup, when a guy who played a huge role happened to be........a rookie.

Are you talking about Buster Posey? You do realize he was called up in May, and had plate appearances in 2009. Not a situation where his first career major league at-bat happens a month before the playoffs start.

[gregmag]

So whose "average production" are we talking about here? Betancourt's? McGehee's? Those guys are nowhere close to average.

 

The assumption that rookies can't play . . . I give up. Many people seem to believe this, and of course they can believe what they want. Taylor Green has been playing baseball all year -- for several years, in fact. He didn't just pick up a bat and glove this morning for the first time. If we're really trying to project whether McGehee or Green will produce better given the same opportunities for the rest of the year, (a) I suspect it's a pretty close call, taking all available evidence into account, and (b) of course we'll never know, because they can't both get the same opportunities.

 

But even if rookies come into this world blind and deaf before the winds of major league experience waft talent into their nostrils, Jerry Hairston Jr. is 35, and he should play ahead of Yuni as soon as Rickie Weeks can hobble to the plate.

[a3uge]

Do you have any particular rigorous data that shows that players consistently underperform their expected production (MLE) for the first 10, or 20, or 100 ABs? Granted 50% of all players hit worse than their median expectation, but you are asserting essentially a universal phenomena.

I think I'm right, but I will admit if I'm wrong. I'll run some numbers. This shouldn't be considered blindly as a cause/effect relationship, because obviously various factors can come in to play. For example, Morgan's hits in his first 10 AB were against Dave Bush, Suppan, and Kip Wells. Not very strong pitchers, but then faced a playoff Cubs team. The teams you play, the parks you play in, and the position you're playing in (pinch hitter, dh, starter) all matter as much, if not, probably more.

For this particular case, I was arguing call-ups. Consistent at-bats in spring training may result in more success in their first 10-25-50 AB. I'm running the numbers on the lineup, unfortunately by hand because I cannot do this through BR. It's probably the case that most players experience their first 25-50 AB as a call-up and do not assume a starting role at the beginning of the season. Hart was a late season call-up, as well as Morgan. I found these averages.

Hart: (10) .200 (25) .200 (50) .200 (career) .275

Morgan: (10) .400 (25) .240 (50) .220 (career) .288

I'll run the rest of the numbers and report my findings.

[a3uge]

So whose "average production" are we talking about here? Betancourt's? McGehee's? Those guys are nowhere close to average.

 

The assumption that rookies can't play . . . I give up. Many people seem to believe this, and of course they can believe what they want. Taylor Green has been playing baseball all year -- for several years, in fact. He didn't just pick up a bat and glove this morning for the first time. If we're really trying to project whether McGehee or Green will produce better given the same opportunities for the rest of the year, (a) I suspect it's a pretty close call, taking all available evidence into account, and (b) of course we'll never know, because they can't both get the same opportunities.

 

But even if rookies come into this world blind and deaf before the winds of major league experience waft talent into their nostrils, Jerry Hairston Jr. is 35, and he should play ahead of Yuni as soon as Rickie Weeks can hobble to the plate.

Let's just stick to arguing about McGehee. I think the Betancourt/Hariston situation is close, and as long as Hariston gets consistent at-bats at 2B and Weeks is hurt, we don't really need to argue about who should start at SS.

There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role due to injury, trade, or release.

There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role when your team is not in playoff contention.

There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role when your team has a solid lead in the division with a consistent lineup.

I'm not arguing that rookies can't perform. I'm not arguing that rookies shouldn't have a spot on the roster. I actually like this call-up. You're totally missing the argument. You have to look at the risk/reward of the situation. Starting Green can have very high rewards. You'd obviously get another solid bat in the line-up if it works out. If not, however, you'll end up with the same hole, if not, deeper hole in the line-up. Despite McGehee's inconsistent defense, I would argue Green's defense is closer to Braun-like at 3B. McGehee's second half numbers are statistically average with his career numbers. I think we have a good indication they'll stay that way. Whatever happened in the first half of the year, he seems to have settled down in the second half and is giving us career-like numbers. This isn't quite the Bill Hall situation, as he's given us 'acceptable-enough' offense for a playoff team. Teams can win with average/below average players in the line-up. If you stick Casey in a pinch hitter situation, you risk the drop-off of even the average numbers he's putting up recently if Green doesn't work out. I just think there's too much risk of this, and there's still a chance McGehee puts up numbers like he did last year. He's certainly capable of it, and I think all of us here are sick of waiting for it to happen. That's why there's so much back-lash against him this year. I honestly think if McGehee didn't put up those numbers last year, there would have been an acquisition or call-up by now. There'd probably be a lot less rambling against him. If he didn't produce the numbers, the Brewers still wouldn't switch starters because they're fine with line-up that helps produce this winning percentage.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would argue Green's defense is closer to Braun-like at 3B.

 

I can't say that I've heard he's anywhere near that bad. Solid glove, decent defender is usually how I see Green described. Have you seen him play a lot in person? I haven't, just wondering.

[jjfanec]

I would argue Green's defense is closer to Braun-like at 3B.

 

I can't say that I've heard he's anywhere near that bad. Solid glove, decent defender is usually how I see Green described. Have you seen him play a lot in person? I haven't, just wondering.

While Green does not have a great fielding % at 3B - just .934, Braun was much worse at .899. I have read nothing to think Green is nearly as bad as Braun was. Braun was historically bad at 3B.

[a3uge]

I really should have looked up how bad Braun's fielding percentage was.

I just looked at Greens 3B fielding % vs McGehee's which was .943 vs .960 respectively.

I do think Green will be given a chance, and I would like him to get a start or two, but I think it's wrong, for the reasons I stated, for him to get handed a starting job without any major-league success.