What is Marcum's trade value?

[RockCoCougars]

I can't think of any examples where one game affected trade value, but it definitely can get a guy more in free agency. Ask Jack Morris or Larry Brown (football). I'd think a bit of that would carry over to trade value. I would think that a horrible outing in the playoffs would lower one's trade value somewhat though because everyone's watching. I'd say that pitchers probably have the most at stake in playoff games. Over baseball history, it seems that fans tend to remember horrible mound outings much more than hitters who disappear in the post season. I know it's just one game, but if you were a GM, would you want to give any meaningful pieces for Marcum or Wolf after watching them the last few nights?

[nate82]

Wolf his value really hasn't changed to steal a line from Green "they are who we thought they are" basically both Marcum and Wolf are who they are those two games are not going to change anyone's opinion about them. Marcum's value and Wolf's value really haven't changed over the two games. Wolf didn't gain more velocity on his fastball and neither did Marcum so they are basically the same pitcher. Now if they somehow gained velocity on their fastballs then yeah their value could change. With Marcum and Wolf it is all about location and fooling the batter so if they are not hitting their locations then they are going to be hit and hit hard. Nothing really has changed from that game to any of their previous games.

The value that is added from their starts in the playoffs is just so small it doesn't really matter. The value that they create is that the GM that gets these players who do well in the playoffs can tell the fans that they got a pitcher who will do well in the playoffs just look at the last playoffs for evidence kind of stuff.

[bucksman4]

Marcum for Lawrie? /blue?

[nate82]

I would rather do Marcum for Xander Bogarts. He won't be ready for a few years and he is not going to be a SS when he fills out probably will be a 3B or a corner OF but he had an .834 OPS at age 18 in A ball!

http://www.baseball-refer...n#standard_batting::none

[MNBrew]

I would rather do Marcum for Xander Bogarts. He won't be ready for a few years and he is not going to be a SS when he fills out probably will be a 3B or a corner OF but he had an .834 OPS at age 18 in A ball!

http://www.baseball-refer...n#standard_batting::none

In the name of Angel Salome and the nearly-.400-hitting catcher so loved on this board 5 years ago before he broke his leg or whatever then had subsequent performance & character issues, I can't put that much stake in a prospect's promise if he's only gotten to A-ball.

 

And if we're trading any in-his-prime, above-average #2/3 starter for a prospect, the prospect had better be pretty much MLB-ready. Trading for an A-ball prospect has to be darn near a total crapshoot.

 

(Late Edit: Lou Palmisano is the guy above whose name I couldn't remember when I originally wrote this.)

[nate82]

I would rather do Marcum for Xander Bogarts. He won't be ready for a few years and he is not going to be a SS when he fills out probably will be a 3B or a corner OF but he had an .834 OPS at age 18 in A ball!

http://www.baseball-refer...n#standard_batting::none

In the name of Angel Salome and the nearly-.400-hitting catcher so loved on this board 5 years ago before he broke his leg or whatever then had subsequent performance & character issues, I can't put that much stake in a prospect's promise if he's only gotten to A-ball.

 

And if we're trading any in-his-prime, above-average #2/3 starter for a prospect, the prospect had better be pretty much MLB-ready. Trading for an A-ball prospect has to be darn near a total crapshoot.

Only gotten to A ball because he is 18. He should be in AA before he is 20 and should be just pushed past AAA and be MLB ready in 2-3 years. Plus he would become the Brewers best prospect since Fielder.

[MNBrew]

I get the age thing, and that's not what I'm arguing. There are myriad variables that can factor into the equation between A-ball & the bigs. Way too many "sure thing" prospects in A-ball don't pan out for me to want to see the Brewers put Marcum-caliber eggs solely into that kind of basket (to kinda twist a cliche).

 

What I'm also saying is that I don't want a 2-3 years hence type of prospect for that caliber of player if that's all we'd be getting in return, and in this case, the organization's most glaring need is SS, so I'd much rather see top assets moved to fill that need, not for someone who may more likely end up a corner OF.

[nate82]

I get the age thing, and that's not what I'm arguing. There are myriad variables that can factor into the equation between A-ball & the bigs. Way too many "sure thing" prospects in A-ball don't pan out for me to want to see the Brewers put Marcum-caliber eggs solely into that kind of basket (to kinda twist a cliche).

 

What I'm also saying is that I don't want a 2-3 years hence type of prospect for that caliber of player if that's all we'd be getting in return, and in this case, the organization's most glaring need is SS, so I'd much rather see top assets moved to fill that need, not for someone who may more likely end up a corner OF.

I get the concerns really I do but this is another Hanley Ramirez like player. Hanley was only 3-years older than Bogarts is and was in his 2nd year at AA.

Would you have traded someone like Marcum for Hanley Ramirez when he was playing in A ball?

http://www.baseball-refer...n#standard_batting::none

 

[JohnBriggs12]

I get the age thing, and that's not what I'm arguing. There are myriad variables that can factor into the equation between A-ball & the bigs. Way too many "sure thing" prospects in A-ball don't pan out for me to want to see the Brewers put Marcum-caliber eggs solely into that kind of basket (to kinda twist a cliche).

 

What I'm also saying is that I don't want a 2-3 years hence type of prospect for that caliber of player if that's all we'd be getting in return, and in this case, the organization's most glaring need is SS, so I'd much rather see top assets moved to fill that need, not for someone who may more likely end up a corner OF.

I get the concerns really I do but this is another Hanley Ramirez like player. Hanley was only 3-years older than Bogarts is and was in his 2nd year at AA.

Would you have traded someone like Marcum for Hanley Ramirez when he was playing in A ball?

http://www.baseball-refer...n#standard_batting::none

 

It's easy to bring up examples of the class A player that turned into a great player. It's harder to name the countless guys MNBrew is talking about because they never made it.

[nate82]

As Marcum has shown in his last two starts and basically in all of his starts this year he is a 100% command pitcher. He is not going to age well at all. When Marcum can't command any of his pitches he can not get guys out at all and it becomes home run derby time. Basically Marcum's fastball is how hard they throw during home run derby's. The Brewers definitely need to sell high this off season on Marcum and get the best available player for him.

[paul253]

The Brewers definitely need to sell high this off season on Marcum and get the best available player for him.

 

Could not agree with you more. Find someone who is desperate for pitching and give them a call.

[Hate those Rodents]

Why do you think we'd be selling high on Marcum? I am guessing teams will be well aware of his last several starts and maybe playoff teams (aka anyone looking to deal for veteran pitching) will be worried about him becoming worthless for them after 200 or less innings next year.

 

As I said a page or so back, Marcum's trade value will be much less than several here would like to believe.

[nate82]

Why do you think we'd be selling high on Marcum? I am guessing teams will be well aware of his last several starts and maybe playoff teams (aka anyone looking to deal for veteran pitching) will be worried about him becoming worthless for them after 200 or less innings next year.

 

As I said a page or so back, Marcum's trade value will be much less than several here would like to believe.

Not really Marcum is still a strong #3 which many teams would want to get for next season the Yankees and Red Sox being the ones who would really want Marcum. Who would you rather have as your #3 Marcum or Burnett? How about Marcum or Beckett/Lackey? I bet the Yankees would take Marcum over Burnett every day of the week. I don't see the Yankees being idle this off season the same can be said about the Red Sox as they will be looking for pitching. The White Sox will be looking for pitching along with the Mets and even the Rangers will be looking for pitching. The Twins will also be looking for pitching and Marcum would be someone they would like to get but I don't think they have any pieces that would fit for the Brewers. The Orioles could be another team looking for a starter. That is a lot of teams looking for pitching this off season. With Marcum not costing all that much next season I am going to assume he will get around $10m in arbitration that makes a lot of teams available to him. Marcum's value will not be that low.

I would definitely go with a Escobar for Marcum trade with the White Sox or a Xander Bogarts and another prospect for Marcum from the Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees get desperate and offer Banuelos for Marcum which would bring the best value to the Brewers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why do you think we'd be selling high on Marcum? I am guessing teams will be well aware of his last several starts and maybe playoff teams (aka anyone looking to deal for veteran pitching) will be worried about him becoming worthless for them after 200 or less innings next year.

 

As I said a page or so back, Marcum's trade value will be much less than several here would like to believe.

Not really Marcum is still a strong #3 which many teams would want to get for next season the Yankees and Red Sox being the ones who would really want Marcum. Who would you rather have as your #3 Marcum or Burnett? How about Marcum or Beckett/Lackey? I bet the Yankees would take Marcum over Burnett every day of the week. I don't see the Yankees being idle this off season the same can be said about the Red Sox as they will be looking for pitching. The White Sox will be looking for pitching along with the Mets and even the Rangers will be looking for pitching. The Twins will also be looking for pitching and Marcum would be someone they would like to get but I don't think they have any pieces that would fit for the Brewers. The Orioles could be another team looking for a starter. That is a lot of teams looking for pitching this off season. With Marcum not costing all that much next season I am going to assume he will get around $10m in arbitration that makes a lot of teams available to him. Marcum's value will not be that low.

I would definitely go with a Escobar for Marcum trade with the White Sox or a Xander Bogarts and another prospect for Marcum from the Red Sox. Maybe the Yankees get desperate and offer Banuelos for Marcum which would bring the best value to the Brewers.

The White Sox won't be interested in Marcum. They really need to cut payroll, but if they want guys nearing FA that will command a decent amount, they'll hold on to Danks and Floyd.

 

Hiring of Robin Ventura is a sign they don't expect to contend for a few years. Marcum for a year makes no sense for them.

[paul253]

Don't overlook Kansas City. The all star game is in KC next year and I'm sure they don't want to have a team that fields the worst record in baseball heading into the break. They desperately need pitching and have a ton of young prospects that would make a Marcum for prospect deal easier to swallow for them. I know a one year player isn't the type of guy they normally go for, but considering how badly they need pitching, how many prospects they have, and the fact that they'll likely get 2 comp picks for him if he leaves, I'd still be surprised but definitely not shocked if they wanted Marcum.

[TooLiveBrew]

Given how patiently & effectively the Royals have rebuilt from within, I don't see them being a buyer on a 1-yr. guy like Marcum.

[paul253]

Given how patiently & effectively the Royals have rebuilt
from within, I don't see them being a buyer on a 1-yr. guy like Marcum.

I guess my thinking is that while they have built effectively from within they still need a lot of help. The Brewers are the perfect example of how a team with a ton of high ceiling hitters can struggle without the pitching to go along with it.The key is pitching. This is just going off stats which I know isn't necessarily the best way to look at it, but it looks like they still have a ton of holes in their rotation. Mike Montgomery, one of their best pitching prospects, got lit up in AAA last year. Danny Duffy, another of their better pitching prospects, got lit up in the majors. John Lamb looks like had TJ surgery and may miss most of next season. I realize they all have a ton of time to find success, but what if they don't? What if they all end up as 4-4.5 ERA type pitchers? Marcum would be a fairly substantial upgrade over anyone currently under contract with them. And if they only have to give up one player, a prospect no less, wouldn't it make sense? I'm not suggesting they take the Brewers route and trade away every prospect they have for established major leaguers, but they do desperately need pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess my thinking is that while they have built effectively from within they still need a lot of help.

 

What I don't see is why they would go after someone who'd only be of help for one season -- and I get that part of what you like here is that KC would (theoretically) only have to part with one player, & could realistically net two comp picks for Marcum when he leaves. I agree they need a lot more talent at the MLB level, but with how highly-regarded their farm system is, making a trade like the Ubaldo Jimenez deal makes a lot more sense to me.

 

And if they only have to give up one player, a prospect no less, wouldn't it make sense?

 

I think if we're looking two or so more seasons down the road, then I (personally) would agree. Just doesn't seem like the time is right for them imho. I would see someone like the White Sox or Rays (or, heck, even Philly) making this kind of move for Marcum.

 

 

EDIT: More teams keep occurring to me on Marcum -- LAA, WAS, FLA, SFG... I think there's going to be no shortage of potential trade partners if Melvin decides he wants to sell on Marcum.

[RockCoCougars]

I suggested before a deal with KC for Billy Butler or Alex Gordon. Obviously, the Gordon deal would be highly unlikely at this point, and Butler would be decent though probably not enough return for Marcum alone.

[paul253]

I'm curious why you say Butler wouldn't be enough? He seems to be a pretty decent OBP guy who can hit for some average and power. I assume he'd move to first base right away leaving Gamel with nowhere to play. My only issue with him is that he is owed a lot of money over the couple of years ($8 million a year for the next three years with a team option in 2015). What about Marcum and Gamel for Butler and Odorizzi? KC's offensive would take a hit but it would be a big help to their rotation.

 

And for what it's worth this article talks about how their lineup seems mostly set but the big question is pitching. Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis are free agents and they may have to look at potential trades.

 

http://kansascity.royals....mp;fext=.jsp&c_id=kc

[RockCoCougars]

I like Butler, but I'm not sure he would be much better than Gamel in the long term. Plus, I'm not sure I want another RH hitter in the lineup. The money would be the big issue as well as creating a hole in the rotation. Gordon would be very intriguing though as a LH bat who could theoretically fill one of three spots and seems to have put it together this year. I wonder if Marcum plus a prospect (is there any position the Royals aren't stacked) may make them think a little. Gordon will start getting expensive pretty soon. Looking at the Royals, it's obvious that they need some veteran pitching. If they get some, with that offensive potential, they may be able to contend next year in that crappy division.

[nate82]

The White Sox won't be interested in Marcum. They really need to cut payroll, but if they want guys nearing FA that will command a decent amount, they'll hold on to Danks and Floyd.

Well since Buehrle will be gone that is $14m less and Pierre is gone that is another $8.5M. There is going to be enough coming off their payroll that they can afford Marcum and his small salary next year. Trading Buehrle's salary for that of Marcum's which will be lower so that argument holds no water at all. I also highly doubt the White Sox are going to be cutting payroll when they have older players in Dunn and Konerko on the roster. This also comes to your second statement which makes no sense at all.

Hiring of Robin Ventura is a sign they don't expect to contend for a few years. Marcum for a year makes no sense for them.

Umm what? Why does Robin Ventura being the manager make any difference on when they expect to be contending? The White Sox have Dunn and Konerko next year and beyond and I don't see the White Sox trading either of those players. Not to mention most of the team is not even set up for something like you are insinuating. The White Sox have a decent team they just under performed this season if they add in someone like Marcum they will be a 85-90 win team next year which wins the AL Central. I can not see how Ventura being hired as the manager has any barring on the White Sox contending next year or them being expected to not contend for a few years. This statement makes no sense with the roster makeup that the White Sox have unless you believe the White Sox are going to blow their whole team up with trades which I believe is highly unlikely.

[PilprinBuddha]

Definitely need to explore all options...Marcum and Wolf should be on the market, deal the one for the best package.

Go with Yo, Greinke, Wolf or Marcum, and Narveson as the top 4. Pick up a serviceable vet or throw Estrada out there.

Many difficult decisions ahead....lots of things need to be discussed.

[paul253]

To answer my own original question: Whatever his value is it is dropping by the minute. At this point I almost say we have to hold on to him because we aren't going to get anything of value. If a team is willing to give us a pitching prospect who has the ceiling of a #3 and is at AA or higher, I'd take him. Or if we can get a prospect who has the ceiling of an every day player and is not a second basemen or center fielder, I'd take him. But, they may just be better hanging onto him and hope he can be a type A. It seems like outside of Fielder, Marcum is the biggest question mark.

[DHonks]

paul, he will be a Type A free agent, no questions asked