What is Marcum's trade value?

[Dollarbill13]

Unless you can extend Marcum for a contract similar to Wolf's I just don't see it. Marcum is a middle of the rotation guy, not a top of the rotation guy. A good middle of the rotation guy to be sure, but so was Wolf who was coming off a year when he had a 3.10 ERA.

If #2 in the rotation is the middle, I agree. There's 19 pitchers in the majors that are better than him in ERA this season. If you look at his career ERA, that would rank him as the 47th best pitcher. With 30 teams in the league, that's smack dab in the middle of #2 starter range. The biggest concern I have with Marcum is that his mechanics aren't particularly clean and could lead to future arm problems. I'd guess 4 years ~$60M in Free Agency. Not a lot of teams are giving pitchers deals longer than that these days.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think it's that bad. Hughes has not even come close to living up to his hype.

 

It's not about Hughes, it's about Montero. That's like paying Brett Lawrie + two talented young arms.

[paul253]

That's like paying Brett Lawrie + two talented young arms.

 

Shaun Marcum isn't exactly chopped liver. And again, Hughes may be a talented young arm, but that doesn't really mean much if you don't live up to it which he hasn't. Manny Parra was a talented young arm a few years ago. Maybe take Hughes out of the deal and offer Marcum and Gamel for Montero and Banuelos. I guess I don't know enough of Banuelos to know how good of a deal that'd be for Milwaukee.

 

I'm just trying to gauge his value here. If you were the NYY Toolive, would you trade Montero and Banuelos for Marcum and Gamel?

[TooLiveBrew]

Shaun Marcum isn't exactly chopped liver.

 

No, but you only have him for one season, then you really have to pay him. The Yankees might do Hughes for Marcum, straight-up. But definitely not with Montero in the picture.

[paul253]

The Yankees might do Hughes for Marcum, straight-up. But definitely not with Montero in the picture.

 

Haha I'm sure they would.

 

No, but you only have him for one season, then you really have to pay him.

 

I don't think the Yankees are all that concerned about who they have to pay, which is another reason why I think you can ask for more from them. Even if they don't resign him, he's going to be a Type A so they'll get picks. If the offered me Hughes for Marcum I'd hang up on them. Like I said, I'm not even sure I'd trade Gamel for Hughes. If they offered me Montero for Marcum I'd listen but I'm still hesitant to do a one for one swap when getting an unproven player in return, especially when you are the one giving up the pitcher.

[nate82]

The Yankees might do Hughes for Marcum, straight-up. But definitely not with Montero in the picture.

Hughes for Marcum doesn't really make much sense for the Brewers or the Yankees. Hughes would be the Yankees #4 starter in their rotation next year. A Marcum for Banuelos would be more realistic for both teams.

As for a Marcum extension I believe this is what Marcum would get on the open market 5 years and $80m which is way more than what the Brewers should pay for Marcum. The ideal extension for me with Marcum would be 3 years at $36m and I don't see Marcum doing that kind of a deal especially if he goes the free agency route he will get at least 2 more years and double the amount. I would rather lock down Greinke to a long term extension and then go from there and trade Marcum away.

[jjfanec]

The ideal extension for me with Marcum would be 3 years at $36m and I don't see Marcum doing that kind of a deal especially if he goes the free agency route he will get at least 2 more years and double the amount. I would rather lock down Greinke to a long term extension and then go from there and trade Marcum away.

That might be ideal but it also really impractical. Randy Wolf got 3 years 30 million. Wolf was 4 years older and had one good year in the past 3. Marcum is coming off three very good years. That is worth a lot more than 2 million more per year.

 

I really dont understand why people are so down on Marcum. I know he doesnt strike a ton of people out but he is actually in the top 25 in the NL in K/9. He was a very good pitcher in the AL East and has been even better with the Brewers.

[MNBrew]

After watching the Brewers get shut down by top-end pitchers for most of the past week & especially the past 4 games, I'm all the more convinced, as I've been saying, that the key to the Brewers' ongoing success is having as many studs in the rotation as possible. Greinke, Marcum, & Yo have to be part of that core. I'm okay w/ Wolf as a #4 for another year but Narveson wouldn't be good enough to be the Phillies' #5 starter so he's the last guy I think we should be content w/ having in the rotation.

 

Really, the improvement isn't so much needed at the top of our rotation as it is around the #5 spot. At the end of the day, you still have to boost your pitching talent where you can. It'd be tough to realistically upgrade our #1-3 starters.

 

What makes the Phillies so terrifyingly dangerous? It's not so much their hitting -- granted, Utley & Rollins lead their list of starters who've lost major time, but only Pence, Victorino, Mayberry, & Howard have OPSs >.800. Really, it starts & ends with the rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, & Oswalt/Worley/Kendrick...and the fact that 4 of those 6 have solidly sub-3.00 ERAs. When your pitchers are that good, you don't have to have a Yankee-esque lineup of All-Stars at every position (though it helps you a lot if you have that, too).

 

Plain & simple, the Brewers have to have a dominant rotation to have a chance. Trading a starter like Marcum represents a major step in the wrong direction UNLESS you get someone in return who can step in and immediately improve on Marcum's performance level. I'd rather put Narveson & either McGehee or Gamel into a deal to land a better starter than Narveson or Wolf than see the Brewers come anywhere close to trading Marcum.

[paul253]

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said but my reason for bringing this up is because the Brewers aren't one who can afford guys like Philly can. There is no way the Brewers could have afforded Lee, just like they couldn't afford Sabathia. That means they have to get this top end pitching either through trades or through the draft. We all know how bad the Brewers have been developing their own pitching, but just to put it in perspective, outside of Sheets and Gallardo they haven't developed any really good starting pitchers in like ten years. They've had a ton of prospects that we thought would be good (Hendrickson, Eveland, Parra, Luis Martinez, Neugebauer, Jones, Rogers), traded away some guys who were top Brewer prospects at the time (Inman, Odorizzi, Jeffress) and have some guys now who have promise (Peralta, Thornburg, Scarpetta, Jungmann, Bradley, Lopez) but the fact remains. So that leaves trading for established stars like they did with Sabathia, Greinke, and Marcum. The problem with that is that even if you are able to do that, it empties out your system and you usually only get the guy for a year or two. Then they can't always afford to resign the guy, like Sabathia. It's kind of up in the air as to whether they can afford to resign both Greinke and Marcum, which is why you need to consider trading one. Otherwise, you don't have sustained success. You have one good year, spend three building up your system in order to get enough prospects to trade, then have another good year or two.

 

I really question Melvin's ability to judge young pitching. Putting aside draft failures, if you look at players he reportedly turned down trades for (yes its just a report and maybe it never happened, or maybe he did like them but didn't think the trade was good enough, I'm just saying). Apparently he was offered Daniel Hudson for Fielder. Hudson is 16-9 with a 3.41 ERA for Arizona. And he's under team control for awhile. Apparently he turned down a Brandon Beachy for Corey Hart trade because he insisted on getting Mike Minor in return. Beachy is 7-2 with a 3.29 ERA through 22 starts. And he's under control for awhile. As good as it is to get guys like Marcum and Greinke to help put you over the top, I really think guys like Beachy and Hudson (young, top prospects that get in return for trading a star) are the guys Milwaukee should be focusing on. So you have one more year of Marcum. One or possibly two of Wolf. They've both had very good years, but why not see if you can flip one of them for a high ceiling #1 or #2 type pitching prospect that you'd control for multiple years? Yeah, it's risky, but less risky than taking draft picks would be. They are in a position to do it now because of the successful years Fiers and Peralta had and they can always resign Marco Estrada for insurance.

 

If Milwaukee thinks it can resign both Greinke and Marcum and not sacrifice it's future by having no money left, that's the best option if you ask me. But with the way Marcum is pitching it seems to be getting less and less likely they can afford both guys long term.

 

Maybe Corey Hart is a guy they should dangle. He's got his value back up. He's under contract for two more years. Try to find a team looking for an outfielder and ask for a pitching prospect in return. I don't know if Atlanta still needs an outfielder, but they have a ton of pitching!

[Never Outhustled]

Marcum is a poorly conditioned athlete. Those guys don't generally age well. I wouldn't trade for young pitching though. Peralta is a stud, and Fiers is being grossly underrated. All of our drafts lately have been pitching heavy. Get a SS.

[nate82]

Marcum is a poorly conditioned athlete. Those guys don't generally age well. I wouldn't trade for young pitching though. Peralta is a stud, and Fiers is being grossly underrated. All of our drafts lately have been pitching heavy. Get a SS.

I completely agree and if the White Sox are looking for a pitcher this offseason I wouldn't even think twice about trading Marcum for Escobar.

[MNBrew]

Marcum is a poorly conditioned athlete. Those guys don't generally age well. I wouldn't trade for young pitching though. Peralta is a stud, and Fiers is being grossly underrated. All of our drafts lately have been pitching heavy. Get a SS.

I completely agree and if the White Sox are looking for a pitcher this offseason I wouldn't even think twice about trading Marcum for Escobar.

We're all entitled to our opinions (and no, I'm not criticizing yours...), but I do trust Doug Melvin's on these notions a whole lot more than any of ours including my own. If he agrees with some of the criticisms of Marcum in this thread, I'm sure he'll be pulling off some awesome deal that surprises most of us in the same way he did when he acquired Marcum from Toronto in the first place. . . . And if Marcum remains a Brewer going into next year, I'm going to be glad.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers are nicely positioned if Fielder leaves to focus in on the big fish who is Greinke. Marcum is a nice pitcher who fit this year's team perfectly. But they've drafted with the obvious intention of producing young, talented, and cheap starting pitching that will allow them to allocate most of their starting pitching resources to the top 2 guys, Gallardo and Greinke over the next 4-5 years. Paying a guy like Marcum "almost top dollar" to be one of the two centerpieces is aiming too low in my opinion.

[Hsee2006]

I agree with a lot of people are saying. I think the focus after Prince walks is to resign Grienke and trade Marcum for younger pitching and/or middle infield help. The Yankees, as always, seem to be likely destination and could offer back a package of Nova and/or Banuelos. We then either trade McGehee or release him and take the money saved from Fielder leaving, Betancourt leaving, McGehee leaving to extend Grienke and try to sign Reyes.

 

As much as I would like to put all our free money into our current big three pitchers the reality is that it will cost almost half of our team salary to lock up those three. Also, with Prince leaving our offense is going to have some serious growing pains next year unless Green and Gamel hit beyond their years right away.

[NievesNoNO]

Marcum is a poorly conditioned athlete. Those guys don't generally age well. I wouldn't trade for young pitching though. Peralta is a stud, and Fiers is being grossly underrated. All of our drafts lately have been pitching heavy. Get a SS.

Marcum is poorly conditioned according to who? I doubt he can bring back a young ML ready arm by himself as what would be the point of a team searching for pitching to give up theirs. He could probably fetch a highly touted MLB ready position player depending on the team and whether or not they believe they can resign Marcum. If it's just for a 1 year rental I don't see any team giving back a great deal as teams are hoarding prospects like gold.

 

Some of you are grossly undervaluing Marcum's ability and his value to this team. He might not be an ace in the likes of CC or Wainwright but at least a 1A type and he's the best pitcher on the Brewers staff right now. He's pitched better than Greinke the last two seasons and he's flat out better than Gallardo. I'm not saying don't trade him at any cost, but I think the return would likely be less than what his value is. If they're looking to lessen the blow of losing Fielder to me the best bet is to keep their rotation in tact and hopefully work out an extension with Greinke or Marcum and when the other leaves they might have one of their prospects ready to step in.

[JohnBriggs12]

Marcum is a poorly conditioned athlete. Those guys don't generally age well. I wouldn't trade for young pitching though. Peralta is a stud, and Fiers is being grossly underrated. All of our drafts lately have been pitching heavy. Get a SS.

Marcum is poorly conditioned according to who? I doubt he can bring back a young ML ready arm by himself as what would be the point of a team searching for pitching to give up theirs. He could probably fetch a highly touted MLB ready position player depending on the team and whether or not they believe they can resign Marcum. If it's just for a 1 year rental I don't see any team giving back a great deal as teams are hoarding prospects like gold.

 

Some of you are grossly undervaluing Marcum's ability and his value to this team. He might not be an ace in the likes of CC or Wainwright but at least a 1A type and he's the best pitcher on the Brewers staff right now. He's pitched better than Greinke the last two seasons and he's flat out better than Gallardo. I'm not saying don't trade him at any cost, but I think the return would likely be less than what his value is. If they're looking to lessen the blow of losing Fielder to me the best bet is to keep their rotation in tact and hopefully work out an extension with Greinke or Marcum and when the other leaves they might have one of their prospects ready to step in.

I know what the numbers say, but Marcum isn't in the class of Greinke or Gallardo. Greinke and Gallardo are workhorses fully capable of 220 inning seasons, 200+ strikeouts and dominating opponents. Marcum is a guy with plenty of moxie that will get you 6 solid innings, but the 3rd or 4th time through, hitters start to gauge his stuff and he's not able to counter that.

 

As for his value to the team, I like to look at the team's records in games started by the pitcher. Brewers are 18-7 when Greinke starts, 18-13 when Yo starts, 17-13 when Wolf starts, 15-11 when Narveson starts, 4-3 when Estrada starts, but just 15-16 when Marcum starts. The Brewers have lost more of Marcum's starts than they've won. I'd be hard pressed to call him more valuable than either Greinke or Gallardo.

 

I'd rather pay the extra $3-5 million per year for Greinke.

[Mudville9]

I might be wrong, but I don't think Marcum has had the best run support this year, so pointing to a W/L record doesn't tell the whole story. Marcum is a solid 2/3 guy. If he was 27 instead of 30 I'd be much more open to an extention. As it is, we lost Lawrie when we picked him up and I would like to get something back besides draft picks when he leaves.

[paul253]

I think a 1-1 or a 1-2 swap involving Marcum and a pitching prospect would be ideal. I'm kind of in the middle about a trade with the Yankees. It seems to me that Marcum for Nova, Banuelos or Bentaces 1 for 1 would not be enough but asking for 2 of them would be too much. But then again, I really don't know much about them and am looking mostly at minor league numbers.

[nate82]

I think a 1-1 or a 1-2 swap involving Marcum and a pitching prospect would be ideal. I'm kind of in the middle about a trade with the Yankees. It seems to me that Marcum for Nova, Banuelos or Bentaces 1 for 1 would not be enough but asking for 2 of them would be too much. But then again, I really don't know much about them and am looking mostly at minor league numbers.

I would rather trade for a position player like a SS than a starting pitcher but Banuelos is more than enough for Marcum. It might be another year before Banuelos will be ready but he is definitely more than enough for Marcum alone. I doubt the Yankees trade Banuelos straight up for Marcum the Brewers would have to give another player in the deal to make it work. Banuelos is only 20 years old I believe and he already has a good to a great fastball with some really good accuracy along with his off speed pitches which rate from league average to just above league average. If the Brewers could get Banuelos they shouldn't ask for much more in return at all.

Escobar from the White Sox to me should be the main target as he brings in plus plus plus defense at SS and he will profile better offensively than Alcides Escobar does/did.

[Nader Raider Tim]

No way do the Yankee's include Banuelos in a deal for Marcum. Banuelos was off the table in any deals this trade deadline and I don't see anything that would have changed that. I know in the Ubaldo Jimmenez talks it was at least rumored that Banuelos, Ivan Nova and Jesus Montero were all off limits. I think there was a another pitcher that was off limits but no idea who it is off the top of my head.

 

While not a perfect trade for filling Brewers needs I am starting to wonder if a Shaun Marcum for Logan Morrison trade might be mutually beneficial. Perhaps Shaun Marcum and Matt Gamel for Logan Morrison and Matt Dominquez. I am lower on Morrison than alot of people and mediocre on Gamel so I'm not certain that is the greatest trade but the Brewers would be getting a 1st Baseman to replace Prince and a 3rd Baseman that is a + defender and is still young enough to have some upside. The Marlins get a nice steady arm to plug into their rotation and will still have oodles of money to throw at Aramis Ramirez and whoever else they want.

[nate82]

No way do the Yankee's include Banuelos in a deal for Marcum. Banuelos was off the table in any deals this trade deadline and I don't see anything that would have changed that. I know in the Ubaldo Jimmenez talks it was at least rumored that Banuelos, Ivan Nova and Jesus Montero were all off limits. I think there was a another pitcher that was off limits but no idea who it is off the top of my head.

 

While not a perfect trade for filling Brewers needs I am starting to wonder if a Shaun Marcum for Logan Morrison trade might be mutually beneficial. Perhaps Shaun Marcum and Matt Gamel for Logan Morrison and Matt Dominquez. I am lower on Morrison than alot of people and mediocre on Gamel so I'm not certain that is the greatest trade but the Brewers would be getting a 1st Baseman to replace Prince and a 3rd Baseman that is a + defender and is still young enough to have some upside. The Marlins get a nice steady arm to plug into their rotation and will still have oodles of money to throw at Aramis Ramirez and whoever else they want.

Ubaldo Jimenez had a lot of question marks on him. I was surprised that the Rockies got what they did from the Indians when they traded him. But yeah Marcum for Banuelos wouldn't happen as Banuelos is going to be a great pitcher but if the Yankees don't make it far in the playoffs this year and it is because of their rotation I could see them over paying for a starting pitcher. I am not sure that would mean Banuelos would be available but Montero could be as Austin Romine is the better defensive catcher and the Yankees could just stick with Martin for another year and have Romine be the backup catcher or be in AAA next year. So a Marcum for Montero trade would be more likely than any other trades. Nova is going to be in the Yankees rotation as their #4 or #5 next year so I don't see the Yankees trading him as they need starting pitching more than anything and it wouldn't make sense to trade him for Marcum as that just leaves a hole they were trying to fill.

The Marlins are not going to trade both Morrison and Dominguez. For the Marlins to trade both Morrison and Dominguez to the Brewers would cost a lot more than Marcum and Gamel. You would be talking a trade like Peralta, Fiers, Gamel, Green, add everyone else from the top 15 of the Brewers prospect list to this for Morrison and Dominguez. There is no way that trade would even get past a pick up of the phone from the Marlins GM.

[paul253]

Banuelos is going to be a great pitcher

 

Phil Hughes was supposed to be a great pitcher too. Let's just be careful not to overvalue someone who hasn't pitched a major league inning yet. Marcum is an established starter who has experienced a lot of major league success. The biggest issue with him is his contract status.

[RockCoCougars]

Unless you are blown away by a deal, I think you hold Marcum until the trade deadline next season. However, as for signing him- at minimum, he's probably going to command a notch above a Wolf-like contract with an extra year tacked on (4 year/mid $40MM range). I'm with those who'd rather sign Greinke if it comes down to a choice.

[paul253]

I just read a little baseball rumor thing on CNNSI that the Royals are going to be looking for two viable starting pitchers in the offseason. Here's a interesting idea. How about Marcum for Odorizzi? I know that's not how the Royals usually work so I guess it depends on how badly they want a good starting pitcher.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I know what the numbers say, but Marcum isn't in the class of Greinke or Gallardo. Greinke and Gallardo are workhorses fully capable of 220 inning seasons, 200+ strikeouts and dominating opponents. Marcum is a guy with plenty of moxie that will get you 6 solid innings, but the 3rd or 4th time through, hitters start to gauge his stuff and he's not able to counter that.

 

As for his value to the team, I like to look at the team's records in games started by the pitcher. Brewers are 18-7 when Greinke starts, 18-13 when Yo starts, 17-13 when Wolf starts, 15-11 when Narveson starts, 4-3 when Estrada starts, but just 15-16 when Marcum starts. The Brewers have lost more of Marcum's starts than they've won. I'd be hard pressed to call him more valuable than either Greinke or Gallardo.

 

Well, I'd bet on Marcum being less valuable in coming years as well, but these are not good comparisons. According to bb-ref, Marcum has received run support of 3.7 per GS*, as opposed to 5.1 for Grienke and 5.2 for Gallardo. I don't know how you can attribute the team's record in their respective games to anything else. Marcum has pitched 6.1 IP per start, as opposed to 6.2 for Grienke and 6.3 for Gallardo. Interestingly, Wolf is the champ in this comparison with good W/L weak run support of 4.0 and IP/GS of 6.5. But really,

 

xFIP doesn't like Marcum as much as the other guys, not surprising with their respective K rates, and Marcum's BABIP is certainly the lowest of our starters at .256, but that's not too far out of line with his career numbers. Marcum's W/L this year (and the team's in his starts) hugely underrates him.