What is Marcum's trade value?

[MNBrew]

First, you can't say with any certainty what contract he will get. It's all speculation. He could get a 3 year deal, he could get a 6 year deal. No one knows now.

Second, I would think guys like Marcum tend to age better. He's never had a plus-fastball so he's always had to rely on location, changing speeds, pitch selection, etc. In other words, he already knows how to "pitch." A guy who just tries to blow his fastball by people will have more trouble as he ages because he will eventually lose speed and that fastball will become very hittable. I just think Suppan is so hated now that anytime we have a guy who doesn't throw 90+, they will be compared to him. Obviously Marcum is no Maddux but speed isn't everything.

 

Rawbecht, I'm with you on both points. To elaborate on your last sentence, I'll posit that while Marcum isn't Maddux, he's sure much closer to Maddux than he is to Suppan.

 

Given the pitcher that he is, a solid & reasonable 3-4 year extension makes good sense to me.

[DannoMac21]

Personally I like having one of the game's best 3rd pitchers. If we absolutely needed to deal someone, it's Wolf. Even then, I'm not convinced Peralta or Fiers could match Wolf next year

Correct. That's all I need to see. Pitching wins championships. Brewers have been trying to win off hitting for forever. We have Betancourt at SS this year and are winning. It won't be hard to upgrade from Betancourt.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

[Menace II Sobriety]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

I disagree, according to the latest elias updates Marcum is a type A free agent and not by a little margin he is ranked 8th in the NL. This would make obviously mean he is worth 2 extra picks to any team that acquires him. I don't want to trade Marcum but if they did he has some serious value. Just because he is viewed as a #3 on this team doesn't make him a 3 on all teams. Also it was kind of funny to see the guy ranked right below Prince is Hart. I realize the Prince had a down year last year and the last 2 years are weighed heavily on the Elias rankings but 9th ranked guy on the list for 1st and OF.

 

edit: forgot to add the link http://www.mlbtraderumors...ias-rankings-update.html

[paul253]

Wow Latroy Hawkins isn't even a type B huh? How is it possible that Frankie De La Cruz has a higher ranking than him?

[rluzinski]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

I disagree, according to the latest elias updates Marcum is a type A free agent and not by a little margin he is ranked 8th in the NL. This would make obviously mean he is worth 2 extra picks to any team that acquires him.

Good point on the compensation picks. The fact remains, however, that a team would still only be trading for a year or Marcum. Even with his outstanding 2011 season, it would be hard for me to believe that he's worth as much in a trade now than he was when the Brewers traded for him.

What are we assuming he'll get paid next year? As a projected 3.6 ERA starting pitcher, his free agent value has to be north of $15 mil.

 

[nate82]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

The market this winter for starting pitchers is going to be sellers market. Since there isn't many if any big name starting pitchers in the free agency market the trade market is going to be big. Edwin Jackson and Yu Darvish are the two big names on the free agency market. One of them will sign with the Yankees or the Red Sox. The Yankees are completely starving for a starting pitcher to go behind Sabathia and the Red Sox need another starter behind Buchholz and Lester. The White Sox are going to need a starting pitcher and the Mariners look like they can compete for the AL West next year they need some more bats but Marcum behind Pineda and Felix would be a rather good rotation.

With the Yankees and the Red Sox needing starting pitching and if they both do not get Darvish then I would expect them to go the trade route as the rest of the pitchers on the market are not that good. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jackson sign with the Nationals or the Orioles. After that you have CJ Wilson who I believe will resign with the Rangers. If the Red Sox, White Sox, and the Yankees are looking for starters there is going to be a very small amount of starters on the market to choose from thus creating a sellers market. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers get something better in return than what they gave up.

Marcum is in line to get something like $10-12m for next season. I would rather see the Brewers trade Marcum than lock him up because Marcum is going to get paid like a #1 or #2 pitcher in the range of $13-17m a year. That is going to be a bad contract for the Brewers.

[jjfanec]

The Brewers are in a great position with Marcum. All three options are good

 

1. Keep him and extend him. I am not nearly as worried about him being bad at the end of a 4 or 5 year deal. He knows how to pitch and he doesnt have a ton of innings on his arm.

 

2. Keep him, have him be the part of a really solid rotation next year and get two really good picks in the draft

 

3. Trade him and get solid value since teams always need pitching and he is coming off a great year. I would be shocked if we got something better than what we gave up since Lawrie is really good, but we should get a good player or prospects for him.

 

I would love to keep him and look at an extension but only after Greinke.

[paul253]

2. Keep him, have him be the part of a really solid rotation next year and get two really good picks in the draft

 

I just hate this option. If it always worked out where you'd get a first round pick, it'd be ok. But with what happened with Sabathia and the possibly of a team with a protected pick (Chicago, Baltimore, LAD) signing Fielder and not giving us their first round pick I am not as ok with this scenario as I used to be. I just hope whatever decision is made is not made with the thinking that they'll get two first round picks for him. I also haven't been all that thrilled with Milwaukee's drafts since Jack Z. left.

[jjfanec]

2. Keep him, have him be the part of a really solid rotation next year and get two really good picks in the draft

 

I just hate this option. If it always worked out where you'd get a first round pick, it'd be ok. But with what happened with Sabathia and the possibly of a team with a protected pick (Chicago, Baltimore, LAD) signing Fielder and not giving us their first round pick I am not as ok with this scenario as I used to be. I just hope whatever decision is made is not made with the thinking that they'll get two first round picks for him. I also haven't been all that thrilled with Milwaukee's drafts since Jack Z. left.

It is not just picks but it also a full year of Marcum and picks. At worst a sandwich pick and a second round pick. It is not the best option but it could help with the farm system

[logan82]

2. Keep him, have him be the part of a really solid rotation next year and get two really good picks in the draft

 

I just hate this option. If it always worked out where you'd get a first round pick, it'd be ok. But with what happened with Sabathia and the possibly of a team with a protected pick (Chicago, Baltimore, LAD) signing Fielder and not giving us their first round pick I am not as ok with this scenario as I used to be. I just hope whatever decision is made is not made with the thinking that they'll get two first round picks for him. I also haven't been all that thrilled with Milwaukee's drafts since Jack Z. left.

It is not just picks but it also a full year of Marcum and picks. At worst a sandwich pick and a second round pick. It is not the best option but it could help with the farm system

At worst a sandwich pick and a third round pick. That is all the Jays got for AJ. We got screwed a bit on CC but the Jays got screwed worse on AJ.

[jjfanec]

It is not just picks but it also a full year of Marcum and picks. At worst a sandwich pick and a second round pick. It is not the best option but it could help with the farm system

At worst a sandwich pick and a third round pick. That is all the Jays got for AJ. We got screwed a bit on CC but the Jays got screwed worse on AJ.

Your right. That was horrible.

 

Still think baseball needs to change how they do comp picks. The best would be closer to how football does. Your picks are determined on the quality of who gave up not the team that signed them. It is stupid to have it connected to the team that picks your guy. Just use the the Elias rankings and then slot the teams with the picks that lost the guys. So the team who lost the best FA gets the highest available pick and the team with the second best FA gets the second highest pick and have it go down from there if that makes sense.

[Raw Biz]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

Marcum is in line to get something like $10-12m for next season. I would rather see the Brewers trade Marcum than lock him up because Marcum is going to get paid like a #1 or #2 pitcher in the range of $13-17m a year. That is going to be a bad contract for the Brewers.

That's because he is a #1 or #2. I don't know how you can look at his stats (career and this year) and think he's anything but.

[JohnBriggs12]

No matter how good a pitcher is, there is tremendous risk in large long term (over 3 year) deals. Marcum has already missed an entire season due to injury. I wouldn't want to tie up $60 or $70 million on him over 4 or 5 years.

 

What's wrong with trying to repeat the formula used to get Marcum rather than committing long term big dollars to keep him beyond next season? Better yet, develop your own young pitchers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers own Marcum for only one more year so I don't see them getting anything huge for him. It would be hard to get a prearby prospect, for instance.

Marcum is in line to get something like $10-12m for next season. I would rather see the Brewers trade Marcum than lock him up because Marcum is going to get paid like a #1 or #2 pitcher in the range of $13-17m a year. That is going to be a bad contract for the Brewers.

That's because he is a #1 or #2. I don't know how you can look at his stats (career and this year) and think he's anything but.

Be careful when looking at his stats. Against .500 or better teams he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA. Furthermore, the Brewers are just one game over .500 in games he's started (15-14). That doesn't say a 1 or a 2 to me. He's done most of his damage against teams like Houston and Pittsburgh.

[Raw Biz]

Marcum is in line to get something like $10-12m for next season. I would rather see the Brewers trade Marcum than lock him up because Marcum is going to get paid like a #1 or #2 pitcher in the range of $13-17m a year. That is going to be a bad contract for the Brewers.

That's because he is a #1 or #2. I don't know how you can look at his stats (career and this year) and think he's anything but.

Be careful when looking at his stats. Against .500 or better teams he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA. Furthermore, the Brewers are just one game over .500 in games he's started (15-14). That doesn't say a 1 or a 2 to me. He's done most of his damage against teams like Houston and Pittsburgh.

What about over his career? Over 5 ERA against NYY, TEX, ARI but under 3 against CHW, PHI, and ATL. Obviously most pitchers are going to have success/failure against certain teams but over his career, Marcum's overall numbers have been good. I wouldn't say he's a true ace but I would consider him a solid 2. Would I give him a 4/60 deal? Probably not but if he would take 3/45, I'd consider it.

[jjfanec]

Be careful when looking at his stats. Against .500 or better teams he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA. Furthermore, the Brewers are just one game over .500 in games he's started (15-14). That doesn't say a 1 or a 2 to me. He's done most of his damage against teams like Houston and Pittsburgh.

In 7 of games Marcum went 6 plus and gave up 2 runs the team was 2-5. That to say he has 7 games with any offense they win but instead took the team lost 5 of 7. Two of the other games the team lost are when he got hurt and could only pitch 1 and 3 innings. In games he didnt have to get pulled for injury the team was 15-12. If they win even 4 of those 7 really good starts the team who have been 17-10 in his starts. He is more a product of poor run support in really good starts than anything else.

[MNBrew]

2. Keep him, have him be the part of a really solid rotation next year and get two really good picks in the draft

 

I just hate this option. If it always worked out where you'd get a first round pick, it'd be ok. But with what happened with Sabathia and the possibly of a team with a protected pick (Chicago, Baltimore, LAD) signing Fielder and not giving us their first round pick I am not as ok with this scenario as I used to be. I just hope whatever decision is made is not made with the thinking that they'll get two first round picks for him. I also haven't been all that thrilled with Milwaukee's drafts since Jack Z. left.

I also hate this option. Much as there may be some doubts about the Brewers' drafting since Jack Z. left, much of his era draft-wise doesn't look good at all for pitchers.

 

I still think the first thing you do w/ a #1-#2 type of starter at his age & w/ his performance record is extend him. Starting pitching has made the biggest difference in the Brewers' season vs. the past few. Why would anyone look to trade Marcum for young prospects who may or may not pan out when the only real position we lack a half-decent prospect in the upper levels is SS and you can get plenty of different mid-range SS's for very reasonable prices? If you look to trade Marcum for a potential future upper-end starter, you're still only hoping to get in that player what you already know you have in Marcum.

[DHonks]

MNBrew, I think that some people have this weird idea that Marcum has had a serious injury-history. Given two years of great performance following TJ surgery, I don't look at his history as troubling. Also, people seem to for some reason think he's like 33. He's not Suppan...a 4 year deal is much safer with Marcum than with many others. Plus, if we don't sign him, I'd hate to have him go to the Cubs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Unless you can extend Marcum for a contract similar to Wolf's I just don't see it. Marcum is a middle of the rotation guy, not a top of the rotation guy. A good middle of the rotation guy to be sure, but so was Wolf who was coming off a year when he had a 3.10 ERA.

 

Last year the DBacks unloaded Edwin Jackson to the White Sox with a year and 2 months left on his deal and got back Daniel Hudson. Now it's hard to imagine another GM dumb enough to give up a young pitcher of that quality, but you never know.

[jjfanec]

Unless you can extend Marcum for a contract similar to Wolf's I just don't see it. Marcum is a middle of the rotation guy, not a top of the rotation guy. A good middle of the rotation guy to be sure, but so was Wolf who was coming off a year when he had a 3.10 ERA.

Shaun Marcum's WAR is better than Yo's this year. He is actually 18th in the NL WAR. He is 11th in ERA, 6th in WHIP, and as not huge strikeout guy he is 23rd in K/9. That is the best middle of the rotation guy I have ever seen.

[RockCoCougars]

Last year the DBacks unloaded Edwin Jackson to the White Sox with a year and 2 months left on his deal and got back Daniel Hudson. Now it's hard to imagine another GM dumb enough to give up a young pitcher of that quality, but you never know.

 

I just don't understand the infatuation with Edwin Jackson in general... A career losing record, an ERA under league average and a career WHIP approaching 1.5- plus he doesn't strike out a lot of guys and walks a ton. I know that he has good stuff, but he's basically had one good year and he seems to get flipped for good prospects annually. My guess is that he will get overpaid in a big way this winter, hopefully by the Cardinals.

[paul253]

What about Phil Hughes? I know he's been awful this year but he's still only 25 and was hyped to know end when he came up with NY. Maybe a change of scenery would be good for him. Obviously not the centerpiece of the deal, but maybe Marcum and Gamel for Hughes, Montero and Banuelous? Montero can take over 1st base next season. Hughes could be given a shot to win the 5th starter spot along with Peralta and Fiers and go to the pen if he doesn't get it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Marcum and Gamel for Hughes, Montero and Banuelous?

 

That's just... well, I'll go with not going to happen in any reality.

 

This would be akin to the Brewers trading Thornburg, Peralta, & Gamel (& that doesn't even match the package you assembled from the Yankees) for someone like... well, Marcum.

[paul253]

This would be akin to the Brewers trading Thornburg, Peralta, &

Gamel (& that doesn't even match the package you assembled from the

Yankees) for someone like... well, Marcum.

 

I don't think it's that bad. Hughes has not even come close to living up to his hype. He has an ERA over 6 right now and I imagine the Yankees would be looking for an upgrade, especially considering he's never had success as a starter. His one good year was as a reliever. I'm not sure I'd trade Gamel straight up for Hughes, let alone Thornburg or Peralta. So for me that leaves Marcum for Montero and Banuelos. Yes, a lot to ask for but again, the Brewers can afford to do that. Montero is major league ready but Banuelos is not. Peralta had much more success in AAA than Banuelos did, though to be fair Peralta is almost two years older. And honestly Thornburg would be a better prospect if Milwaukee pushed him like the Yankees pushed Banuelos.

 

For me the idea of trading Marcum only comes from getting a strong return like the one above. I'd rather resign him honestly, but it'd be nice to see Melvin sell high for once.