What is Marcum's trade value?

[paul253]

I never would have considered the idea of trading him and have hoped all season the Brewers would extend him, but a few other posters mentioned the idea of trading him and it got me thinking. He surely has more trade value then Wolf as he is younger and has had more success. What would a team like the Yankees or Boston give up for a year of Marcum? Would NY give up Montero and Banuelos/Bentaces/Nova? Would Boston give up Iglesias and Ranaudo? Would Atlanta give up Delgado or Vizcaino?

[RockCoCougars]

It would be tempting to sell high on Marcum, but I don't think that you'd get back a prospect package comparable to Lawrie for him. I'd say better to just ride it out with him unless someone wants to give up a proven MLB slugger at a need position (3rd base) for him.

[nate82]

It would be tempting to sell high on Marcum, but I don't think that you'd get back a prospect package comparable to Lawrie for him. I'd say better to just ride it out with him unless someone wants to give up a proven MLB slugger at a need position (3rd base) for him.

I don't think the Brewers need someone at 3B as they have an internal option in Green even if the Brewers are currently not looking at Green right now over McGehee.

I had this trade going through my head with the Yankees needing a #3 starter to go behind Sabathia and Hughes. I wonder if the Yankees would do a Banuelos and Yadil Mujica would be something the Yankees would look at. Yadil Mujica is a very good fielding SS but he has no bat and would be worse offensively than Betancourt but his defense would be the best since the Brewers had Escobar. I would rather the Brewers do Banuelos and Austin Romine. Romine would become the Brewers catcher of the future he has a nice bat and would become the best defensive catcher in the Brewers farm system and would probably jump up as the Brewers #1 prospect. I don't think the Brewers could get Banuelos and Romine for a deal involving only Marcum but it could happen depending on how desperate the Yankees get in finding a good #3 pitcher. If the Yankees miss out on Darvish I wouldn't be surprised if they traded Montero and another prospect not named Banuelos to a team for a good #2 or #3 starter. But I see Montero being the backup catcher for the Yankees in 2012 and their part time DH.

Another trade that I think maybe possible would be with the White Sox. The White Sox need a #3 like pitcher and the Brewers need a SS. Eduardo Escobar is currently blocked and a swap of Marcum for Escobar may not be a bad trade for either team. With Alexi Ramirez signed through 2015 Escobar is going to be blocked for a long time unless the White Sox move Ramirez over to second and have Escobar at SS but then that leaves Beckham who really isn't a 3B offensively. The only thing I don't like about Escobar is that he strikes out a lot and he doesn't walk at all. He has the same tools as Alcides Escobar has though and basically the same problems offensively. Defensively Eduardo Escobar is ready to play in the majors but his bat is just not ready though he is only 22 years old and he still has some time yet to become better offensively. To me this would be the best possible trade the Brewers may get. I do not really see the Red Sox giving up Iglesias for Marcum unless somehow they get Reyes in free agency which is possible but I don't think they are going to give out another big contract like that. The Red Sox are not as bad in their rotation as the Yankees are they need bullpen help more than a starter.

The trades I would like to see the Brewers do would be something like a Marlins fire sale.

Marcum to the White Sox for Eduardo Escobar

McGehee to the Indians for Luis Valbuena and Matt Packer

Hart and Rogers to the Red Sox for Lars Anderson and Felix Doubront

Gomez to the Rays for Upton

Wolf to the Mariners for Alex Liddi

I am not sure on the Gomez for Upton trade as the Rays are more likely to be looking for a relief pitcher for Upton than someone like Gomez. Gomez though brings the same amount of production with better defense that Upton brings to the Rays currently plus every time I simulate 5-years on MLB the Show the Brewers somehow always trade for Upton or sign him very weird. I believe the Wolf trade is probably more fantasy than reality but Marcum to the Mariners for Liddi and another prospect would be more realistic. I like the Red Sox deal the most as I think Lars Anderson could play a passable OF or the Brewers could move Gamel to RF as he has the arm and athleticism to play RF and have Anderson play 1B. Felix Doubront is the wild card here I am not sure the Red Sox would give him up in that deal Drake Britton is probably more of a realistic option and I would actually prefer Britton over Doubront potential wise.

I don't think the Brewers would be the main contenders in 2012 with a fire sale like that but they would be set up for future success unlike now. With these trades the Brewers lineup would look like this:

1. Weeks 2B

2. Upton/Morgan CF

3. Anderson 1B

4. Braun LF

5. Gamel RF

6. Lucroy C

7. Green 3B

8. Escobar SS

9. Pitcher

Bench: Valbuena, Morgan/Upton, Kottaras, Hairston, Ludwick

Starting rotation:

Greinke, Gallardo, Narveson, Peralta, Doubront

Bullpen:

Axford, Packer, Estrada, Loe, De La Cruz, McClendon, Kintzler

[DHonks]

Personally I like having one of the game's best 3rd pitchers. If we absolutely needed to deal someone, it's Wolf. Even then, I'm not convinced Peralta or Fiers could match Wolf next year

[paul253]

I'd prefer trading Wolf as well, I'm just not sure you'll get much for him. Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer re-signing Marcum, but I think with the emergence of Peralta and Fiers this season it wouldn't hurt to look around. While Peralta may not match Wolf next season, I think his ceiling is much higher and he needs to get his feet wet in a low pressure situation like the #5 starter because he may need to replace Wolf in 2013 anyway. Or worse yet, he may have to replace Greinke or Marcum.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wolf might actually net a decent return in the offseason, since he'd be all but a lock as a Type A free agent after '13 (*edit: I forgot there was a team option on the end of his contract). He'd basically just have to stay healthy to net a team type A compensation. So if you're the buyer & you get Wolf for a full season plus a 1st/2nd round draft pick, you might be inclined to part with good talent, but just from where you're deep in your MiLB system. The Brewers could probably find a solid SS going this route, but might do better to look just for the BPA, positions aside.

 

From a depth standpoint, I think I'd rather keep Wolf around, however. The Brewers have actually been pretty fortunate in terms of injuries to SPs this season. Coming back with this rotation, with Peralta & Fiers at worst in AAA as first men up in case of injuries, would make for a strong unit. I like Peralta & Fiers, and agree they need their time to succeed or fail, but they most likely will get those opportunities next year... and if not, the Brewers will probably have one of the best starting rotations in all of MLB again.

 

* If the Brewers (or any team with Wolf's contract) would decline the team option, could they still offer him arbitration?

[nate82]

* If the Brewers (or any team with Wolf's contract) would decline the team option, could they still offer him arbitration?

Yes they can.

[MNBrew]

I see Marcum as a starter the likes of which you build a rotation around. To me, keeping him, Greinke, & Gallardo is paramount.

 

To "play ball" with the topic of the thread, Marcum cost us our very best position prospect. I'd expect nothing less than that value in return, esp. given the year he's having.

 

Nate82, I don't get why you think the team has to be blown up. Those are each intriguing moves but highly idealistic (though I suppose that's the point) and also highly likely not to have them all pan out. . . . And no way is Narveson a #3 starter, so I can't buy that angle at all. . . . .I just don't see how you could justify that kind of roster blow-up the year after being a serious pennant contender AND filling the ballpark w/ over 3 million fans. You'd have more fan revolt than buy-in, I'd think. When having studs in the rotation has made the biggest difference for the team, I don't see how you trade away half of the good veteran starters the Brewers have.

[nate82]

Nate82, I don't get why you think the team has to be blown up. Those are each intriguing moves but highly idealistic (though I suppose that's the point) and also highly likely not to have them all pan out. . . . And no way is Narveson a #3 starter, so I can't buy that angle at all. . . . .I just don't see how you could justify that kind of roster blow-up the year after being a serious pennant contender AND filling the ballpark w/ over 3 million fans. You'd have more fan revolt than buy-in, I'd think. When having studs in the rotation has made the biggest difference for the team, I don't see how you trade away half of the good veteran starters the Brewers have.

I don't think the team has to be blown up it is just the perfect example of how the Brewers will be able to compete in the future. I don't really want to see Marcum locked up at all as I would rather see him traded. With the trades that I would make would be more about 2013-2017 than 2012 and I believe the fans would recognize this. Plus this allows the Brewers to extend Greinke which would show more for the future than anything else. The 2012 rotation would look bad but having Narveson as the #3 is basically the default here. Doubront is a possible #2 or #3 pitcher. After 2012 is when the rotation really starts to set in. With a year under their belts in Doubront and Peralta they now move to the #3 and #4 spots that leaves Narveson, Scarpetta, and others fighting for that last spot. The Wolf trade to the Mariners could be the best deal here if Green doesn't pan out at 3B or Gamel or Anderson don't pan out at either 1B or RF Liddi can fill in at either 1B or 3B as he has very good power.

If the Brewers don't trade Marcum or Wolf I don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive after 2012 especially if Greinke and Marcum leave through free agency.

[paul253]

If the Brewers don't trade Marcum or Wolf I don't see how the Brewers

are going to be competitive after 2012 especially if Greinke and Marcum

leave through free agency.

 

I think if they resign Greinke and Marcum they'll be fine after 2012, with additional moves of course. Trade Corey Hart (I'm still upset they didn't trade him for Beachy, which was the rumored deal last season). Allow Green and Gamel to be full time players. Hopefully arbitration eligible players Hawkins, K-Rod, Fielder and Saito will bring in at least 4 extra picks which they really need to use on hitting prospects. But Gindl could probably replace Hart in 2013. By the time hopefully Green and Gamel will be every day players. Schafer can replace Morgan (if needed). Shortstop still needs to be addressed long term but other than that you have a pretty regular lineup including Lucroy, Gamel, Weeks, Green, Braun, Morgan/Schafer, and Gindl. Maybe Hart or McGehee could be traded for a SS. The rotation would be ok with Gallardo, Marcum, Greinke then hopefully some combo of Peralta, Fiers, Narveson, Scarpetta and maybe even Rogers.

[MNBrew]

Folks on this site tend to get cynical about Melvin's moves at times (even the ones that are top-notch) until they prove to be beyond most debate (granted, there have been a few questionable ones along the way). But I think his track record is good enough (as will be the gradually improved "outside" perception of the Brewers' farm system and prospects therein) that I think Melvin would pretty solidly be able to get the Brewers through 2012 as high-level contenders AND also position them very well for 2013 and beyond.

 

It sounds simplistic & idealistic to put it this way, but I have great faith in the guy's ability to do the right thing.

[DHonks]

Like I always say... Let's build a braves-style winner:

Maddux, glavine, smoltz=gallardo, marcum, gallardo

Chipper= Braun

Come and get us NL central!

[DuWayne Steurer]

Marcum's trade value?

 

I'd say he should bring back a 1.050 -ish OPS 3B, who's young, under team control for 6 years, and can steal bases too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[MNBrew]

Ryan Braun? :-)

[jjfanec]

How does Marcum's value compare to a guy like Edwin Jackson? Jackson and a couple relievers netted Rasmus. Jackson also netted Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg(who is a young pitcher with decent value). I have no idea if Marcum should net more or less than Jackson. I have never been really impressed with Jackson but I know some advanced numbers say he is very good.

[paul253]

I think we need to find a team that is desperate for pitching and thinks that with it they are a playoff contender. Just like the boat Milwaukee was in last season. Granted he had 2 years left on his contract last off season but Toronto got Brett Lawrie in return. At the time he was a top 30-40 prospect an by now he's probably top 10. I don't know which teams are looking for pitching as much as we were last year but I think if you can get a top 30 prospect who is either major league ready or close to you do it.

[DHonks]

Paul, that will be us next year if we deal Marcum. We'll be desperate to add a front/middle of the rotation starter, and they're not easy to add (seeing as we've managed to get one every 5-6 years it seems)

[jjfanec]

I think we need to find a team that is desperate for pitching and thinks that with it they are a playoff contender. Just like the boat Milwaukee was in last season. Granted he had 2 years left on his contract last off season but Toronto got Brett Lawrie in return. At the time he was a top 30-40 prospect an by now he's probably top 10. I don't know which teams are looking for pitching as much as we were last year but I think if you can get a top 30 prospect who is either major league ready or close to you do it.

Teams that fit that bill but I dont know if they have the prospects would include - the Twins, White Sox, Mets, Yankees (they need pitching but doubt they go the trade route), maybe the Nationals, Tigers could use another top starter, Cincy/St Louis (but I doubt we trade within the division), etc. The teams are there and Marcum has been really good.

 

I say this not wanting to trade Marcum. I would be all for dealing Wolf for a SS.

[paul253]

Paul, that will be us next year if we deal Marcum. We'll be desperate

to add a front/middle of the rotation starter, and they're not easy to

add (seeing as we've managed to get one every 5-6 years it seems)

 

Well right but unless we re-sign both Marcum and Greinke we'll be in the same boat anyway, just a year later and for longer. If they do resign them like I hope , that's the best case scenario. But if not all you get is picks for him, quite possibly a sandwich pick and a second rounder and I do not like relying on that option. Like I said, if we can get a young top prospect or a combo of two above average prospects then I'd do it. The system, while having a few guys shining, is still very thin. A deal with the Yankees for Montero and Banuelos or Bentaces is the kind of deal I am thinking about. It may be a lot to ask for but the Brewers are in a position where they can ask a lot in return. Maybe a deal with the White Sox revolving around Eduardo Escobar. Or the Mets. If they resign Reyes maybe Reuben Tejada would be available. He seemed to handle SS pretty well and he's not even 22 yet. But ideally you can get a pitcher with #2-#3 upside, which will help Milwaukee in the long run.

 

I'm not necessarily calling for the Brewers to do it, but it wouldn't hurt to look around.

[nate82]

Well right but unless we re-sign both Marcum and Greinke we'll be in the same boat anyway, just a year later and for longer. If they do resign them like I hope , that's the best case scenario.

No that is the worst case scenario. The Brewers will regret signing Marcum to a long term deal. I would rather trade Marcum than sign him to a long term extension Marcum is just not someone who is going to age well. He has a fastball like Suppan and will have to rely on locating very well. I just do not see Marcum being all that good and he is already 29 and going to be 30 this year. He is not going to age very well I would rather see the Brewers trade Marcum for a SS this winter than extend him.

[DHonks]

Nate one difference with sup pan and marcum is marcum is younger. Another is that marcum has 1 plus pitch, suppan had none.

[paul253]

The Brewers will regret signing Marcum to a long term deal. I would

rather trade Marcum than sign him to a long term extension Marcum is

just not someone who is going to age well. He has a fastball like

Suppan and will have to rely on locating very well.

 

I think it depends on how long you sign him for. I'd be okay with three, maybe four years. Anything longer than that then I'd agree. But his fastball already is like Suppan's and he already has to rely on the change and location. He's been fine up til now. Teams may figure him out sooner or later but you can say that about any pitcher. He has had a sub 4 ERA three years in a row now which is pretty good. That being said, if you get a get a good deal you take it. Nate you mentioned a SS. Do you have anyone specific in mind? Would you trade him straight up for Reuben Tejada?

[jjfanec]

Why do people compare Marcum to Suppan? Sure neither pitches really fast but the comparisons end there.

 

1. Over the past three years Marcum has had an ERA of 3.4, 3.64, and 3.11. Soups best 3 year stretch was 4.12, 3.57, 4.12. Marcum's worst full season so far was 4.13.

2. Suppan eclipsed 120 strike outs one time and landed on 120 another time. Marcum has eclipsed that each year and he had 165 last year and in already over 140 this year

3. Marcum has never walked more than 50 guys in a year (though he will do that this year) and Suppan average almost 70 a season

4. Marcum has never given up a hit per inning pitched. Suppan did it EVERY year he pitched

 

Marcum is a much safer bet than Suppan to finish out a contract well. His arm doesnt have a ton of innings on it yet either. He only has 417 minor league innings to go with 768 in the majors. The guy has under 1200 innings on his arm. Suppan had that while he was still in KC. Gallardo almost has as many innings as Marcum.

[nate82]

Why do people compare Marcum to Suppan? Sure neither pitches really fast but the comparisons end there.

 

1. Over the past three years Marcum has had an ERA of 3.4, 3.64, and 3.11. Soups best 3 year stretch was 4.12, 3.57, 4.12. Marcum's worst full season so far was 4.13.

2. Suppan eclipsed 120 strike outs one time and landed on 120 another time. Marcum has eclipsed that each year and he had 165 last year and in already over 140 this year

3. Marcum has never walked more than 50 guys in a year (though he will do that this year) and Suppan average almost 70 a season

4. Marcum has never given up a hit per inning pitched. Suppan did it EVERY year he pitched

I'm not comparing Marcum to Suppan I just stated that Marcum has a Suppan like fastball. Nothing comparing the two about their results or anything of that matter. You are reading way to much into what I put.

Marcum is also not going to get a 3 or 4 year deal he will get a 5 or 6 year deal. No way should the Brewers do 4 years let alone 5 or 6 years with Marcum. Marcum's contract will come back and haunt the Brewers if they do sign him long term.

[Raw Biz]

Why do people compare Marcum to Suppan? Sure neither pitches really fast but the comparisons end there.

 

1. Over the past three years Marcum has had an ERA of 3.4, 3.64, and 3.11. Soups best 3 year stretch was 4.12, 3.57, 4.12. Marcum's worst full season so far was 4.13.

2. Suppan eclipsed 120 strike outs one time and landed on 120 another time. Marcum has eclipsed that each year and he had 165 last year and in already over 140 this year

3. Marcum has never walked more than 50 guys in a year (though he will do that this year) and Suppan average almost 70 a season

4. Marcum has never given up a hit per inning pitched. Suppan did it EVERY year he pitched

I'm not comparing Marcum to Suppan I just stated that Marcum has a Suppan like fastball. Nothing comparing the two about their results or anything of that matter. You are reading way to much into what I put.

Marcum is also not going to get a 3 or 4 year deal he will get a 5 or 6 year deal. No way should the Brewers do 4 years let alone 5 or 6 years with Marcum. Marcum's contract will come back and haunt the Brewers if they do sign him long term.

First, you can't say with any certainty what contract he will get. It's all speculation. He could get a 3 year deal, he could get a 6 year deal. No one knows now.

Second, I would think guys like Marcum tend to age better. He's never had a plus-fastball so he's always had to rely on location, changing speeds, pitch selection, etc. In other words, he already knows how to "pitch." A guy who just tries to blow his fastball by people will have more trouble as he ages because he will eventually lose speed and that fastball will become very hittable. I just think Suppan is so hated now that anytime we have a guy who doesn't throw 90+, they will be compared to him. Obviously Marcum is no Maddux but speed isn't everything.