Nationals not interested in Fielder

[sveumrules]

I really think it's gonna be Toronto. They have the money, Lind/Encarnacion are nothing special at 1b/dh and AA knows you need difference makers in the AL East so if he were to open up the checkbook Fielder (or Pujols) certainly fit the bill.

[rluzinski]

It's painful to think how bad Prince would be defensively at 33 and 34 years old.

 

I agree that I don't see an NL team making an offer like that, for this reason. They debate as to whether the Brewers offering a year (or two) too many to keep him here and make 2-3 more legitimate playoff runs is obviously the big question.

Franchises like the Cubs justify spending more for a guy than they know he's going to be worth over the course of a contract by using a "win now" mentality. Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal. Fielder is an elite hitter but he can be replaced with 2 or 3 above average players for less money overall, IMO. That's the luxury of having a couple of bad players in certain roles.

As for being able to trade him in 5 years, I think that is far from a certainty. I hope that is not a hard scenario for people to envision.

[GB12]

It's painful to think how bad Prince would be defensively at 33 and 34 years old.

 

I agree that I don't see an NL team making an offer like that, for this reason. They debate as to whether the Brewers offering a year (or two) too many to keep him here and make 2-3 more legitimate playoff runs is obviously the big question.

Franchises like the Cubs justify spending more for a guy than they know he's going to be worth over the course of a contract by using a "win now" mentality. Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal. Fielder is an elite hitter but he can be replaced with 2 or 3 above average players for less money overall, IMO. That's the luxury of having a couple of bad players in certain roles.

As for being able to trade him in 5 years, I think that is far from a certainty. I hope that is not a hard scenario for people to envision.

What? You don't think that the same team that is currently leading the division by 10 games would make the playoffs next year?

[bucksbeat]

Well the only definite team in the Fielder sweepstakes will be Milwaukee. I'm sure both sides would be interested if it could happen financially. The question I have is even if a team like Baltimore were interested, would Prince be? The Orioles are still light-years away from competing in the AL East. It's obvious Prince wants a big deal but the guy is ultra competitive. I'm having trouble imagining him with the Orioles, the Mariners or even the Nationals, who all probably wont compete for at least a couple years.

 

Of course come the offseason surprise teams will step up for his services so it's premature to even be discussing destinations.

[PeaveyFury]

Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal.

 

But other than KRod, everyone else from the team that's currently running away with the division would be back. What leads you to think this?

[Invader3K]

Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal.

 

But other than KRod, everyone else from the team that's currently running away with the division would be back. What leads you to think this?

Hawkins and Saito are also free agents, but I would guess they could be signed to reasonable one year deals at this point if the Brewers want them back.

It's all going to come down to how easily 3B and SS can be upgraded next year. If we have to shell out big money for a free agent at one of those positions, it's going to be tough to re-sign Fielder along with at least one of Marcum/Greinke.

 

[jjfanec]

Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal.

I am really trying to figure out why the Brewers would not be a favorite. They would still have Braun, Fielder, and Weeks, surrounded by Hart, Lucroy, Morgan and others. Sure SS is still week but 3B should be improved with Green or Casey having a decent year. The starting rotation is still stacked with Peralta there to step in if needed. The bullpen will probably lose some pieces but not insurmountable ones.

 

This team is one the best teams in baseball right now without their all-star second baseman. Not sure why they all the sudden wouldnt be a playoff team. What do you mean by "everything else being equal."

[Invader3K]

The other thing is that we could be looking at a really weak NL Central again next year. St. Louis could be a mess, especially if Pujols leaves. Maybe the Reds bounce back, but I can't see the Astros, Pirates, or Cubs really contending next season.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

Here is my daily crazy statement for August 25, 2011. I could see the Marlins becoming a player for Fielder. They are opening a new stadium and need to make a splash. For years they have said that they needed a new stadium in order to be competitive. They need to put their money where their mouth is. Prince lives in Fla. and his kids will be playing little league soon and wouldn't be able to spend their summers with Dad like they used too. Can Gaby Sanchez play OF?

[dlk9s]

rluzinski]Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal.

http://i1107.photobucket.com/albums/h396/dlk9s/slothchillin-3.gif

[gregmag]

I'm going to join in the pile-on for Russ about his cryptic playoff projection. Only two key players on the Brewers this year seem to have dramatically outperformed reasonable expectations -- Morgan and Wolf. Braun, Fielder, and Weeks could regress some, but they aren't exactly playing over their heads. The two big factors in keeping this team strong will be the health of the rotation and rebuilding the middle of the bullpen. Of course there's uncertainty, but I'd still say we look like favorites as of now.

 

All of that said, I think Russ is exactly right about Fielder. He's going to command an enormous salary, and players with his body type seem to decline pretty quickly after 30. He's enough of a liability on defense already that it saps a significant amount of his value. Of course we aren't going to replace his production at 1b, but we probably can replace 80 percent of his production (factoring in defense) for next to no money, and turn the savings into upgrades wherever we can't fill holes from within. Our best AAA hitting prospects are lefties, which helps a lot.

 

I hate to see a great player leave, especially one that we developed, and I think he'll be a great hitter for another four years at least. But he won't be worth $20 million a year, and the Brewers can win without him.

[rluzinski]

It's painful to think how bad Prince would be defensively at 33 and 34 years old.

 

I agree that I don't see an NL team making an offer like that, for this reason. They debate as to whether the Brewers offering a year (or two) too many to keep him here and make 2-3 more legitimate playoff runs is obviously the big question.

Franchises like the Cubs justify spending more for a guy than they know he's going to be worth over the course of a contract by using a "win now" mentality. Even with Fielder, I don't think the Brewers are necessarily a playoff team in 2012, everything else equal. Fielder is an elite hitter but he can be replaced with 2 or 3 above average players for less money overall, IMO. That's the luxury of having a couple of bad players in certain roles.

As for being able to trade him in 5 years, I think that is far from a certainty. I hope that is not a hard scenario for people to envision.

What? You don't think that the same team that is currently leading the division by 10 games would make the playoffs next year?

First of all, I didn't say that I didn't think they would make the playoffs. I was suggesting that I didn't know if they WILL make the playoffs. I should have been more clear but what I meant was that even if the Brewers are the favorites to win the Cenral next year (and they probably will be), it still could be coinflip odds of them even making the playoffs. It's just the way it works.

Furthermore, it shouldn't be shocking to anyone that sometimes a team's record doesn't always represent their true collective talent. While the Brewers currently have the record of an elite team, their underlying component stats suggest they are closer to a true 90 win team. Hell, the Brewer's simple pythagorean record has them on pace for 88 wins. Considering they were projected to win around 88 wins before the season started, is that really that surprising?

As for 2012, if you knew nothing about a team except that they won 95 game the year before, you'd probably project them to win something like 90 wins for 2012 anyway. I would guess that for the Brewers in 2012. Almost certainly the front runners to win the Central but perhaps 50%-60% odds to make the playoffs? I don't know the true odds of course but not even close to a lock even with Prince.

The Yankees, Boston and Philli are elite teams. Texas is a great team. The Brewers are somewhere below that, IMO. Very good but not great, like Atlanta.

 

[Warning Track Power]

Well the only definite team in the Fielder sweepstakes will be Milwaukee. I'm sure both sides would be interested if it could happen financially. The question I have is even if a team like Baltimore were interested, would Prince be? The Orioles are still light-years away from competing in the AL East. It's obvious Prince wants a big deal but the guy is ultra competitive. I'm having trouble imagining him with the Orioles, the Mariners or even the Nationals, who all probably wont compete for at least a couple years.

 

Of course come the offseason surprise teams will step up for his services so it's premature to even be discussing destinations.

I disagree strongly about the Nationals not competing for a couple years. Even with Werth having a very down year and Zimmerman being injured for the first 3 months, they are only 4 games under .500 in a division with arguably the two best teams in all of baseball. Now add Prince to an everyday lineup that already has Zimmerman, Espinosa, Morse, Werth, Ramos and also an ace in Strasburg to an already decent rotation with Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler and Wang and you don't think they are in competition next season? As I stand here today, that could be an 85 win team.

[gregmag]

I think that's exactly right. The context for the discussion (in part) is whether the Brewers should make decisions like a team that's in "win now mode" -- a team whose contention window is wide open. Your analysis seems consistent with the conclusion that they should. Of course, what decisions are wise to make in "win now mode" -- like whether to resign Prince or not -- is a different and harder questerion.

[rluzinski]

I think that's exactly right. The context for the discussion (in part) is whether the Brewers should make decisions like a team that's in "win now mode" -- a team whose contention window is wide open. Your analysis seems consistent with the conclusion that they should. Of course, what decisions are wise to make in "win now mode" -- like whether to resign Prince or not -- is a different and harder questerion.

I don't know the exact odds but I think everyone appreciates that the 88th to 92nd wins are very valuable since they have a higher probability of winning a playoff spot than the 83rd or 84th win. Without Fielder but with Gamel, perhaps the Brewers are an 87 win team, so upgrading from there could be very valuable. If the option was just Prince or no Prince, "win now" could justify overpaying for Prince somewhat I just think there could be better, potentially less costly options.

[bucksbeat]

I disagree strongly about the Nationals not competing for a couple years. Even with Werth having a very down year and Zimmerman being injured for the first 3 months, they are only 4 games under .500 in a division with arguably the two best teams in all of baseball. Now add Prince to an everyday lineup that already has Zimmerman, Espinosa, Morse, Werth, Ramos and also an ace in Strasburg to an already decent rotation with Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler and Wang and you don't think they are in competition next season? As I stand here today, that could be an 85 win team.

I wont argue the fact that Washington has some nice things going for them but the two that aren't going for them are A) Philadelphia and B) Atlanta. Both are set up to dominate that division for the next 2 years. It would be near impossible for a third team in that division to come close to 85 wins.

 

The Nationals have some big questions to. Obviously the biggest is can Strasburg come back after Tommy John surgery? So far he's got through the low-minors portion of his rehab. Werth's contract was a joke but can he come back next year and do something other than get on base? Can the Nationals improve their infield defense? Zimmerman is a career .960 fielder but has been in the low .950s the last two years, Ian Desmond is fielding lower than Yuni Betancour at .954, Espinosa is the bright spot. Add Fielder to that mix and that is one poor defensive infield with a rotation, aside from Strasburg, that doesn't strike out a lot.

[GAME05]

but how much has "wanting to win" really EVER factored into free agent decisions? i see all these free agents leaving for bad teams that offer the most money and then just say how they have the "pieces in place" to win. i really can't think how Washington or Baltimore would necessarily be a place that Prince wouldn't go just because they're bad teams.

[GB12]

but how much has "wanting to win" really EVER factored into free agent decisions? i see all these free agents leaving for bad teams that offer the most money and then just say how they have the "pieces in place" to win. i really can't think how Washington or Baltimore would necessarily be a place that Prince wouldn't go just because they're bad teams.

It depends on how much of a price difference we're talking. For less than a 5% difference I bet it happens all the time. But if we're talking $100 million vs $120 million it doesn't count for much.

[pretendastronaut]

I think wanting to win factors in for the guys who can have a say in the matter. Certainly the top tier free agents go to contending teams almost without fail. Here the the top 10 free agents for the last 4 years. Outside of Kansas City and Washington, they went to contending teams. Some teams you won't see on this list; Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Florida, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego.

 

2010

01. Cliff Lee : Philadelphia

02. Carl Crawford : Boston

03. Jayson Werth : Washington

04. Adrian Beltre : Texas

05. Victor Martinez : Detroit

06. Adam Dunn : Chicago Sox

07. Carl Pavano : Minnesota

08. Jorge De La Rosa : Colorado

09. Andy Petitte : --

10. Jake Westbrook : St. Louis

 

 

2009

01. Matt Holliday : St. Louis

02. Jason Bay : NY Mets

03. John Lackey : Boston

04. Joel Pineiro : LA Angels

05. Aroldis Chapman : Cincinnati

06. Andy Petitte : NY Yankees

07. Randy Wolf : Milwaukee

08. Orlando Hudson : Minnesota

09. Felipe Lopez : St. Louis

10. Noel Arguelles : Kansas City

 

2008

01. Mark Teixeira : NY Yankees

02. CC Sabathia : NY Yankees

03. Manny Ramirez : LA Dodgers

04. A.J. Burnett : NY Yankees

05. Derek Lowe : Atlanta

06. Rafael Furcal : LA Dodgers

07. Adam Dunn : Washington

08. Ryan Dempster : Chicago Cubs

09. Milton Bradley : Chicago Cubs

10. Oliver Perez : NY Mets

 

2007

01. Alex Rodriguez : NY Yankees

02. Jorge Posada : NY Yankees

03. Mike Lowell : Boston

04. Barry Bonds : --

05. Andy Pettitte : NY Yankees

06. Francisco Cordero : Cincinnati

07. Andruw Jones : LA Dodgers

08. Mariano Rivera : NY Yankees

09. Jose Guillen : Kansas City

10. Kyle Lohse : St. Louis

[KCBrewerfan34]

I just don't see Fielder leaving to play on a bad team and losing for 7 or 8 years. if the Brewers pony up 7 years for $140 million I think he will have a hard time leaving. The question is will the Brewers step up with an offer like that and would that kind of a deal cause them not to sign Greinke who IMO is the most important sign.

 

 

GO BREW

[Invader3K]

if the Brewers pony up 7 years for $140 million I think he will have a hard time leaving. The question is will the Brewers step up with an offer like that and would that kind of a deal cause them not to sign Greinke who IMO is the most important sign.

 

 

GO BREW

I really don't want to see the Brewers offer Fielder more than five years, or maybe five with a vesting option for a sixth. Giving a big seven year deal to a first baseman would be a terrible move for a team that does have a payroll ceiling like the Brewers. It could be a franchise crippling contract.

I still think Fielder will end up going to a team that can contend that will offer him a bigger deal, like maybe the Angels.

 

[rluzinski]

but how much has "wanting to win" really EVER factored into free agent decisions? i see all these free agents leaving for bad teams that offer the most money and then just say how they have the "pieces in place" to win. i really can't think how Washington or Baltimore would necessarily be a place that Prince wouldn't go just because they're bad teams.

It depends on how much of a price difference we're talking. For less than a 5% difference I bet it happens all the time. But if we're talking $100 million vs $120 million it doesn't count for much.

I think that's reasonable. Tie breaker for sure. 5%? Probably. An extra year and $20 mil? Hell no.

[Invader3K]

I do think a team's ability to win and remain competitive will be a factor for Prince. Someone was on the D-List last week saying he had spoken to Fielder and he said as much. I really doubt he signs with a team like Baltimore just because they offer him a couple million more. If they offer him $20 million more than the next closest team, then maybe I can see it. I do think he really wants a World Series ring (or two or three...). One thing that drives him is that he wants to have a better career than his father.

[brwrsfan]

Then we should make it easier for him by just winning the WS this year http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[RightFieldCoder]

Here is my daily crazy statement for August 25, 2011. I could see the Marlins becoming a player for Fielder. They are opening a new stadium and need to make a splash. For years they have said that they needed a new stadium in order to be competitive. They need to put their money where their mouth is. Prince lives in Fla. and his kids will be playing little league soon and wouldn't be able to spend their summers with Dad like they used too. Can Gaby Sanchez play OF?

You can say the same thing about the Milwaukee franchise. We were told that we couldn't keep our good players until we had a new stadium.

I'm on the fence about resigning Prince, I was just pointing out that the new stadium doesn't mean buying high priced free agents.